Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Leaderboard

Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 28/09/20 in all areas

  1. A major change from ECMWF ahead of the winter.
    21 points
  2. Obviously a coastal issue as 18 miles inland, we had a cracking few days! High of 16.4 on Saturday and 15.4 on Sunday. Walked into our town centre on Saturday to drop off a painted stone for our lockdown display project and the sun was beating down. Sunday, there was some thin cloud but till very pleasant along the bank of the Dee. We were keeping our eyes peeled for the elusive otters that have made their home here but all we managed to see were loads of ducks with their bums in the air, feasting on whatever was below the surface.
    8 points
  3. Could be a good show tonight. Wet morning here today and then a wonderful sunny afternoon/evening - high of 15C. Crystal clear overhead at the moment but can see those showers on the Coast. Lovely tomorrow and then a washout Wednesday! All the best to you all.
    6 points
  4. Typical, I put washing out late morning, went onto a phone meeting then when I turned round it was raining! Not enough to register on my rain gauge but enough to stop my laundry from drying. Hey ho, looks like the drying rack will be used more often from now on. Hopefully tomorrow will be the best day of the week and the sun will make an appearance.
    6 points
  5. Beautiful day! Walk up the reservoirs with the kids this morning and just back from a 30 mile jaunt round the Pentlands on my bike. Really busy up there today with folks enjoying the weather and meeting friends and family. Got a bit off the beaten track to get some peace and quiet. Stunning! Love weather like today! One snap as I was too busy enjoying being out to take any more Time for a beer or 3!
    5 points
  6. A day of light grey Aberdeenshire Permagloom™ - clearing this evening to crystal clear skies! Armed with the Aurora Amber alert, dragged the kids out to have a look an hour ago - to discover nought bar two satellites..... kids not impressed. Just goes to show how quickly the aurora comes and goes. The late evening clearance allowed some sunshine to appear just before sunset - the low angle of the sun making the clouds look particularly sinister... Surprisingly mild day, with a max of 16c - coinciding with a few spots of rain around lunchtime (warm front passing over???). Generally light winds.
    4 points
  7. After a damp middle of the morning to about 2 or so this afternoon the skies did break very sunny end to the day. Wonder if we get mist and fog tonight with the dampness of the ground so forth
    4 points
  8. Max of 11C exactly today and min of 0.9C so quite cool overall. In the sun and with a lighter breeze it didn't feel too bad and I had a walk this afternoon in shorts and a t shirt though I had to pretend a bit to my wife that I wasn't really feeling cold. Looks like another coldish one tonight with temp currently 8.4C.
    4 points
  9. An odd thing happened an hour after I posted here at 16:30; the sky cleared and the drizzle stopped. The only cloud visible was some cumulus on the western horizon. In the last couple of hours the cloud has started building again. We're getting some weather at last. Temperature currently 6.1 deg.C, r.h. at 97%, pressure 1016.8 hPa rising slowly, and no wind registering. Total rain today was 5.6mm.
    3 points
  10. Cool and cloudy here today with a max so far of 12C which is the current temp. Just a hint of rain about lunchtime but didn't last more than a few minutes.
    3 points
  11. It's remained dull and damp with occasional drizzle producing a total for the day so far of 5.6mm of rain, temperature currently 14.0 deg.C, which is a fraction down on the high for today, the wind has remained light to non-existent and pressure is steady at 1012.9 hPa.
    3 points
  12. If we weren't seeing rapid cooling at this time of year in the Arctic then we'd be in massive trouble! Sea ice should continue to grow on a weekly basis, and by a faster than average rate given that sea ice maxima are declining slower than minima. My ice data is from Bremen University, but even the JAXA/ADS data updated this morning shows a small drop in extent for the 27th. This agrees with the difference map (below) for the 26th to the 27th. Anything more than 2 days of losses at this time of year is truly exceptional, but 1 day loss (like we have now) isn't particularly rare. Using the daily NSIDC extent data since 1979 for the final 5 days of September, 28 out of the 246 days (11%) have seen losses. MASIE doesn't use a consistent methodology (changing their methods based on the available and suitable data, like visual satellite imagery that varies based on cloud cover). This variable method means it's more liable to larger day to day fluctuations, that can represent sensitivity to changes in the processing method as well as actual changes in the ice cover.
    3 points
  13. Thanks for the above post. After checking your very good daily ice graphic on the other NetW Arctic thread, I went to look at Climate Reanalyser to check the outlook It showed a rapid cooling of Siberia and Eastern Russia over the next 10 days, with the (fledgling vortex?) depression now centred over the ESS/Kara, (producing the southerlies into Chukchi that you mentioned), but then gradually moving into Kara over the next 10 days. The effect is to push the ice away from Chukchi in the immediate future (as you suggest) but it will also push it further westward along the Atlantic front, and also southwards into the CAA. Expect these 2 areas to start expanding in the next week. Also for further ahead with the cooling discussed above we can expect the 'warm' southerlies over the Chukchi to turn much colder as the cold bites into Siberia, and is then ejected into the Arctic by the low over Kara.. So maybe short term pain, but long term gain. Been watching Masie over the last couple weeks, and it is very variable this year, with a loss of 80K Km2 one day followed by a gain of 220K KM2 the next. It does however appear to be about a day in front of your ice graphic maps. Which reporting system do you take your daily data from?. Below are a couple of the CR maps that I discussed above showing the progression of the low and the temperature trend.. MIA
    3 points
  14. Please not lets see endless T+384 strat charts again this year, it's a completely futile exercise. (Not aimed at you mate, there's a few that did it all the way through last winter, and it's completely pointless at that range).
    3 points
  15. minus 1 this morning following by glorious sunny morning before high cloud filtered in from the west.
    3 points
  16. No frost here today.. just the same greyness as yesterday. No wind today tho so thats better than yesterday, other than that same s#*t different day.
    3 points
  17. Afternoon all! Hope you are all well. Very cold start for many I see! Glorious spell of Autumn weather! Currently sunshine and 7C outside after a freezing start to the day! These pictures below sum up the last few days here - brief heavy showers on Thursday (Mammatus clouds) and sunshine/blue sky galore ever since. Perfect hiking weather - only thing missing for me was snowy peaks! (First settling snowfall usually arrives at the end of October) All the best to you all!
    3 points
  18. Finally the sun re-appeared this afternoon and with the temp reaching 18.4C with virtually no breeze it felt really pleasant. A couple more picks from last weekend and the result of the gales on the Norfolk coast. Hopefully not another repeat this coming weekend, but it certainly doesn't look like great weather. Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-54324144
    2 points
  19. In amongst all the unsettled carnage on the latest model output there are a few anticyclones swimming against the tide in the GEFS 6z but to be honest, those of us who prefer calm autumn conditions will have to roll with the punches as it looks like a generally very unsettled spell is about to descend upon us for some considerable time although that doesn’t preclude the occasional more settled interlude.
    2 points
  20. Can anyone summarise exactly what will become freely available ? Can’t believe that the data which currently costs in excess of 100k per annum will suddenly become gratis !
    2 points
  21. I remember this day so well and the big change that came on the 22nd. The temperature swing was large from the morning to the afternoon 22nd September 00.00 22nd September 12.00 23rd September 00.00 The cold front got to my location at around 12pm on the 22nd. Was outdoors at the time and got caught out as I hadn't seen the weather forecast for this day and the promising pleasant warm start meant I went out with no coat or jumper on. Suited me just fine in the morning till that cold front arrived out of the blue. Was a strange cold front with clear blue skies right up till the squall line. I remember the colder air slamming into me like a wave and how much different the day was after this. I was feeling quite cold for the rest of the day when outdoors When I saw the forecast later on there had been reports of funnel clouds and mini tornados along that squall line and apparently the temperature drop from one side of the front to the other was around 10C. Went from low 20C's to low double digits within a couple of hours I do feel this event was a teaser to the winter pattern to come in winter 2003/04 as that one although generally mild did feature several northerly blasts with some snow in each of them right from December 2003 up to early March 2004
    2 points
  22. No panic yet. MetO for 3.4 is the most bullish for Nina tendency (other areas less negative) but there is quite wide scatter here still. And not many members here getting to -2.... .
    2 points
  23. Looking at the latest ECM...shows nothing other than low pressure over or near the country. So that spells rain, rain, rain and some windy spells - welcome to the glum season!
    2 points
  24. I was watching the BBC weather for the week ahead on Countryfile last night, and it seems that we are in for some very stormy weather next weekend. OK, that may change and locations of concern are not mentioned at this stage, but generally it does seem we are going to be 'attacked' by a particularly deep and vigorous low moving up from the south / south west next Saturday.
    2 points
  25. Well that's the Indian summer finished. This morning the weather is dull, damp and disappointing. Temperature currently 9.2 deg.C up from a minimum of 4.7 deg.C at 01:46, relative humidity is 95%, there's no wind, barometer at 1012.1 falling slowly, there's been 0.4mm or rain on the last 24 hours and the sky is 8/8 cloud covered. Strangely, although my weather station is recording very little to no wind and the trees behind me are still, the wind turbine on the farm on the other side of the wood is going like the clappers. Either it's very exposed or I'm very sheltered here.
    2 points
  26. 2 days blank, 192 for 2020, 71% Solar flux 74 Thermosphere: 4.00
    2 points
  27. Broken record time, another very quiet day in here, ending what has been the quietest week in the forum this year I feel. Outlook is less than inspiring and this is probably reason why, no prospects anything appreciably warm, and too early for anything particularly cold, but we have had some very cold nights in some places which have escaped people's attention. Also with everything else going on this week and a general sense of doom and gloom, I'm not surprised at the lack of posts. Alas, injecting some activity again this evening. No change in the models today, all showing a very unsettled pattern for the foreseeable with the jet buckling and the UK left on the cold side, trough locked into place by heights to the SW and NE. Indeed signal for a cut off low development slap bang over us by the weekend and into the following week meaning slow moving heavy rain, strong winds around edge of the low, slack winds in the middle and chilly for all. Hope everybody made the most of the recent dry sunny weather.
    2 points
  28. I've been teaching myself data visualisation in Tableau for work, so thought I'd also have a go at plotting some CET data against ENSO / QBO data. Here's a chart showing the mean winter CET for all years since 1951 (on the horizontal axis) and mean ENSO ONI data for the winter (on the vertical axis). The symbols indicate QBO data averaged for the winter months, circles are EQBO, squares are WQBO, filled are stronger values, unfilled are weaker, and an asterisk represents very weak / neutral values. The year shown is for January / February, so '2010' represents winter 2009/10. It's a bit crude as it covers the whole winter and so doesn't indicate (for example) whether a winter is front-loaded or back-loaded for cold, and I could only find the ONI data for ENSO which covers the Nino 3.4 region, so this doesn't indicate the impact of Central or Eastern Pacific La Nina / Modoki El Nino for example. A couple of interesting observations from the chart: (1) aside from 2009-10 which is a bit of an outlier, it seems that coldest winters tend to be clustered closer to ENSO neutral, and while it doesn't seem to make much difference whether it is El Nino or La Nina, some of the warmest winters have been associated with the strongest events: e.g. 2015/16 and 1988/89. (2) the QBO doesn't seem to make a great deal of difference to the outcome, with both EQBO and WQBO of varying magnitudes at either end of the scale, at least when averaged over the winter here. I'm still learning so it would be interesting to know if there are any other datasets that would be better to use, or for example whether using previous autumn or OND / NDJ values for ENSO / QBO would be more helpful if there is likely to be a lag in the effect on UK weather.
    2 points
  29. Overnight low of 3.1c so not as cold as further south. Thereafter a forgettable day. Generally grey, though the sun taunted you in the late afternoon by trying to break through the cloud. Max of 11c and dry. Strong aurora ongoing just now going by the alert I got, but the cloud is masking any view of that unfortunately.
    2 points
  30. Hi Matt, Hope you are keeping well mate, thanks for your thoughts and I look forward to hearing from you on 5th October with the EC update and fingers crossed it will be an improvement from September, Also you are absolutely right regarding the concept of SSW, it can have an imence impact on the overall winter pattern. All we need for our little island is the jigsaw blocks to all fall in place and then we are in the game. I have not lost any hope for the coming winter as you have already mentioned it is far too early to make any conclusion. What might be of importance is to see what kind of pattern the autumn settles down into and how the other factors that make a cold winter favourable play out. Sometimes certain weather or air masses can give a hint as to how the atmosphere is playing out. If I remember correctly leading up to 2010 , colder than average temperatures were being noticed from earlier on in the autumn season and that was the first sign that the atmosphere was behaving differently then the normal uk winter. If by any consolation our sudden northerly and Easterly outbreaks that we have seen in the past week is it telling us something or is it just a blip. We have still got several weeks of autumn so best to look for signs. If these northerly or Easterly outbreaks keep happening then yes there is alarm bells ringing. Whatever happens our weather is something that will always be challenging to work out. With the best of science and computer modelling there will always be some leaf that is left unturned. As for us coldies like me a lot of you have probably been waiting for this part of the year to be upon us. We have started our winter journey a journey where there will be many ups and downs but we will always travel and live in the hope that maybe this winter. THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND HAS BEGUN Stay safe all kind regards
    2 points
  31. So Mrs Mair Snaw has today told me she wants more outside space. So i have agreed to another house move... she then says a home by the coast would be nice... she has been told to get tae f#*k. And quickly agreed to a move inland and said no more than 200m asl.. oh go on then.
    2 points
  32. 2 points
  33. According to the reliable cfs, it won’t be a mild winter..well, not all the time anyway!..too be honest, I don’t take any seasonal outlook seriously as the weather is dynamic and doesn’t give a 510 dam about anyone’s predictions!
    2 points
  34. Third air frost at - 2.7°C. All the begonias are black this morning.
    2 points
  35. Yes, growing veg has not gone well here either. Funny year.
    2 points
  36. The correlation (though its weak at about +0.4) is actually for the gradient increase (not the nominal) south of 60N and west of somewhere in Russia and its actually from the final week of September through the third week of October. Obviously it had success in 09 and 12 (12 especially had the snow just pour south into China so huge sub-60N totals) but a major flop in 16 where we had stellar snowcover but fell flat. .............. Anyhow with the Ural ridging now prompting a -AO the pattern is actually becoming highly favourable for Siberian snowcover.
    2 points
  37. Definitely picked the wrong year to start growing stuff.... Last frost - May 14th - which is a couple of weeks later than anytime in the previous 12 years June, July and August all less sun than normal And now a first frost 3-4 weeks earlier than normal
    2 points
  38. And I'm struggling to come up with a more inane 'method' of seasonal prediction! But, of course the mighty Spurs will win the domestic treble, this season, as the season ends in a year ending in one!
    2 points
  39. First proper frost of the season. Cars, grass etc all white and still hanging on in the shade. Stunning morning, not a cloud in the sky.
    2 points
  40. Lovely sunny morning blue skies and 1C, birds water was frozen. Fed birds, we've got a mob of wee sparrows living in the hedge and they sit on the fence and look into the kitchen until somebody feeds them.
    2 points
  41. Wow! Met more than a bit out with their low temps! -3c when I got up! Currently -2c! First proper white frost of Autumn! Stunning morning.
    2 points
  42. Following a dawn to dusk cracker of a day yesterday, this morning is again dry, sunny and crisp. Temperature currently -0.7 deg.C up from a minimum of -1.4 deg.C at 06:41, relative humidity is 95%, there's no wind, pressure is 1020.3 hPa and steady, and there's been no rain in the last 24 hours. There's a definite frost on the ground this morning so I think I'll advance my usual 1st of October date for putting out the bird feeders.
    2 points
  43. Not particularly warm but an absolutely beautiful day! Looks like more to come tomorrow! Great stuff
    2 points
  44. Second air frost with min of 0.0°C. Beautiful day walking up Glenholm this afternoon
    2 points
  45. Above average ice growth in the last 5 days, primarily around the Beaufort/Chukchi region. Ice is pushing further north along the Kara/Laptev edge though, just 503 km from the N. Pole at its closest point.
    2 points
  46. Wintry sunrise this morning with some cumulus clouds coming in off the Firth from the NE on a fresh wind. Very cool feeling. Sudden change in weather means partial winter feeding has started for cattle outside as grass at these temperatures has very little mineral content.This was demonstrated by a newly calved cow with "staggers" yesterday morning necessitating visit by vet and iv magesium and calcium. From a collapsed state to sitting up in 30 minutes but we were lucky as we could easily have lost her.Calf is fine and both are now inside for two days. Lots of molassed(sugar) mineral buckets in field but she may have not taken enough as she was calving .
    2 points
×
×
  • Create New...