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Showing content with the highest reputation on 27/09/20 in Posts

  1. According to the reliable cfs, it won’t be a mild winter..well, not all the time anyway!😜..too be honest, I don’t take any seasonal outlook seriously as the weather is dynamic and doesn’t give a 510 dam about anyone’s predictions!😁
    10 points
  2. I only skimmed the AO numbers, most Octobers that high -AO numbers had high -AO front loaded winters.... Late November through Decembers seemed to be the peak negativity but as I said I only skimmed it. October 2009 had a -3 & a -5.9 in Dec October 2010 had a -2.6 & a -5.3 in Dec If I sat & went through it there some inverse ones like 2006. Maybe the good ones are La Nina... Across the piste I would say that there are proportionately more negative Decembers after significantly negative episodes in October than there are positive Decembers which is a good si
    10 points
  3. Wet: Wet: Wet: The three main models have gone all Marti Pellow on us at 144hrs
    8 points
  4. Continued blocking over Northern Europe retrogressing towards Greenland allows the AO to tank to Sub -3 A long way to challenge the record of -5 which was Oct 2002... Whats the net fallout? The jet straddling the UK > Wet windy & chilly!
    8 points
  5. And I'm struggling to come up with a more inane 'method' of seasonal prediction! But, of course the mighty Spurs will win the domestic treble, this season, as the season ends in a year ending in one!
    7 points
  6. Broken record time, another very quiet day in here, ending what has been the quietest week in the forum this year I feel. Outlook is less than inspiring and this is probably reason why, no prospects anything appreciably warm, and too early for anything particularly cold, but we have had some very cold nights in some places which have escaped people's attention. Also with everything else going on this week and a general sense of doom and gloom, I'm not surprised at the lack of posts. Alas, injecting some activity again this evening. No change in the models today, all showing a very unsettl
    6 points
  7. Afternoon all! Hope you are all well. Very cold start for many I see! 🥶 Glorious spell of Autumn weather! Currently sunshine and 7C outside after a freezing start to the day! These pictures below sum up the last few days here - brief heavy showers on Thursday (Mammatus clouds) and sunshine/blue sky galore ever since. Perfect hiking weather - only thing missing for me was snowy peaks! (First settling snowfall usually arrives at the end of October) All the best to you all!
    6 points
  8. Anybody think the Chief Forecaster just drew as many lines as he could aimed at the UK.
    6 points
  9. You don’t see a lot of these feats these days. Nice to see!
    6 points
  10. Hi East 17 boy.. How's the rest of the old boy band doing... 🤣 Just kidding mate... Thanks to Karl...aka Jon Snow for giving us a little bit of cheer with those CFS charts. For me it's far to early to make predictions for this coming Winter.. Let's not forget its still over 2 months away! Regardless of what Exeter and Gav are predicting and I have respect for both those mentioned..The EC long term anomalies are painting a poor picture for this winter overall.. The last update was September the 5th..and it was showing alot of the Northern Hemisphere to be milder than average, with perhaps Janua
    5 points
  11. Another one taken by the lake earlier. Temp now 6c in the still strong late September sunshine but one of the best September snowfalls to be seen in these parts for many years. C
    5 points
  12. Hi Jon, lets hope charts like these come to play when we reach December onwards. Alas a lot of time we see these candy charts or they set up this kind of pattern before real winter and then disappear when we really need them. I am optimistic about this season it's going to be a long rollercoaster ride fingers crossed it will be a start if a trend to cold winters. We have had our run of mild ones ( 2018 being exception) when we had the beast from the east. We just now need a switch in trend and it can begin this year. The story since yesterday from my friends I spoke to has been how t
    5 points
  13. Well that's written that period off for any cold stuff...
    5 points
  14. Nice Sunday morning sunrise on the local mountain. C
    5 points
  15. Lovely sunny morning blue skies and 1C, birds water was frozen. Fed birds, we've got a mob of wee sparrows living in the hedge and they sit on the fence and look into the kitchen until somebody feeds them.
    5 points
  16. Wow! Met more than a bit out with their low temps! -3c when I got up! Currently -2c! First proper white frost of Autumn! Stunning morning.
    5 points
  17. Beautiful day! Walk up the reservoirs with the kids this morning and just back from a 30 mile jaunt round the Pentlands on my bike. Really busy up there today with folks enjoying the weather and meeting friends and family. Got a bit off the beaten track to get some peace and quiet. Stunning! Love weather like today! One snap as I was too busy enjoying being out to take any more 😀 Time for a beer or 3!
    4 points
  18. AN OUTBURST OF PINK AURORAS: Auroras are usually green. Not last night, though. "They were the pinkest of all pinks!" reports tour guide Markus Varik, who sends this picture from Tromsø, Norway:
    4 points
  19. Looking at the Gfs 6z operational we could be using the F word soon..no, not that F word silly!..Flooding!!!!!😜...having said that, there is some improvement indicated longer term..for a time!
    4 points
  20. Third air frost at - 2.7°C. All the begonias are black this morning.
    4 points
  21. First proper frost of the season. Cars, grass etc all white and still hanging on in the shade. Stunning morning, not a cloud in the sky.
    4 points
  22. Following a dawn to dusk cracker of a day yesterday, this morning is again dry, sunny and crisp. Temperature currently -0.7 deg.C up from a minimum of -1.4 deg.C at 06:41, relative humidity is 95%, there's no wind, pressure is 1020.3 hPa and steady, and there's been no rain in the last 24 hours. There's a definite frost on the ground this morning so I think I'll advance my usual 1st of October date for putting out the bird feeders.
    4 points
  23. Morning , well if it’s autumn weather your after then your definitely gonna get it if the ECM is on the ball . Some really nasty storms incoming with severe gales . I say bring it on . The storm around day 7 is a beast .
    4 points
  24. I'm just drooling at these charts... look at all these possible scenarios. 🤤 All of these charts are taken from the 12z GFS ensembles - the most unreliable model out there!
    4 points
  25. Low temp here of 1.6C and DP of 0.2C ❄️
    3 points
  26. Thank goodness for the bolded bit, Jon... At this time of year 'abnormally cool' is a synonym for 'dire'!
    3 points
  27. Hey Gang, please don’t shoot the messenger..me..that would hurt!😜..the ECM 0z ensemble mean paints an increasingly unsettled outlook but on the face of it, it doesn’t look abnormally cool / cold!🤡
    3 points
  28. Definitely picked the wrong year to start growing stuff.... Last frost - May 14th - which is a couple of weeks later than anytime in the previous 12 years June, July and August all less sun than normal And now a first frost 3-4 weeks earlier than normal 🤬
    3 points
  29. December 2002 was mild overall but January and February 2003 weren't too far from average, at least for the CET. Depended on location what you thought of that winter, London had snow in early January and there was the M11 snow fiasco that stranded many drivers at the end of the month. Only a couple of days or so before it was exceptionally mild, the record maximum temperature for January was equalled. Personally, it was typical of those winters of that period of 1997-98-to 2007-2008, not particularly snowy with only short cold periods
    3 points
  30. 00z ECM run gave lots of lovely autumn rain for me, 12z still interesting but less so. We had a lovely settled period of warm sunshine leading up to the Tuesday just gone, but now I'm fully in the mood for Gales and downpours. I've said it every year since, but hopefully this winter is like 2013/14, with a constant battering of deep lows right over the South.
    3 points
  31. Ok, not far off the mark. Waking up to a happy Saturday in the Austrian Alps. Still snowing with heaviest amounts on the Northern Alps with some rather huge amounts reported this morning. C
    3 points
  32. Yes, Mark, this is the part of the year I most dislike, summer gone, and winter a few months away. But let us hope for some interesting cold winter weather this year, because without it, given government restrictions (I won’t comment on them in here), we will be in a right mess, with Covid happiest at +4C, pretty much the average UK winter temperature. Cold dance needed!
    3 points
  33. I find myself now in limbo weather wise . No heat anymore ( unless there is a dramatic change ) but nothing yet for snow . I hope these cool / cold conditions for the time of year does one but come mid November let the snow and ice chase begin . Of course signals will be well documented by many on here between now and then , I dip my hat to you before the Mad seasons commences 👍.
    3 points
  34. Lovely photos. Yesterday I tried to see if I could spot snow on top of Schneeberg (visible from here on clear days) but to no avail, because the mountain was shrouded in cloud. It looks like there was a fair bit up there yesterday but now only patches remain: https://sk.bergfex.com/puchberg-schneeberg/webcams/c2471/
    2 points
  35. Todays stratospheric zonal wind sets a date record for the weakest ever for 27/09 at 7.9M/S Sadly the correlation between these date records & the strength of the subsequent DJF zonal wind is very low.
    2 points
  36. Yes, growing veg has not gone well here either. Funny year.
    2 points
  37. I think front loaded winters are better. You get the cold in nice and early when the days are short and the sun is at its weakest meaning snow and frost are much more likely to stick around throughout daylight hours and if the pattern gets locked in enough it can take some shifting. Also with a front loaded winter there always remains the chance of a SSW which can then add a back loaded element to the winter too. 2017/18 was a good example of this with some early snow chances and events late November 2017 into December 2017 before the milder January and then the SSW happened that del
    2 points
  38. Morning all, Hope you are all well and Virus free. Quote - ALEXISJ9 "I know what you mean with the faux cold stuff, had it right through summer and now on and off. Don't know if it's just my age now, I do hope it's nothing to do with the hang on of a virus though.." My Wife seems a bit better again this Morning, and was well enough to Yesterday Evening's meal. Re. your comments Alexis, I just wonder if the initial nasty Virus that my Wife and myself both had back in late Feb/early March, was indeed CV. Perhaps some Antibodies were created by our Immune Syste
    2 points
  39. Observed Flux Density 73.3 Adjusted Flux Density 73.6 = low
    2 points
  40. I think it'll be the opposite way round. La Nina winters tend to be front loaded favouring a cold November / December at times with a signal for milder than average conditions later in the winter. We also have warmer than average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic too. This may well favour lower pressure over the Azores but will we see lower pressure over southern Europe too? We shall see, I have a hunch that December will be colder than average with January transitional, February and March mild.
    2 points
  41. Observed Flux Density 72.6 Adjusted Flux Density 72.9 = low
    2 points
  42. Well I made a right Horlick’s earlier today when I posted yesterday’s charts because I automatically assumed they would have been updated 24 hours later..it just shows you can’t assume anything..but here’s my second attempt!..and really, I can’t sugar coat it, looking at the GEFS 12z mean for next Friday, you would assume (wow I’m assuming again) the only way is up from such a nadir and indeed there is eventually something of an improvement..for a time at least..but I’ve just had a butchers at the ECM 12z op and it really does become very unsettled indeed during the second half of next week o
    2 points
  43. Second air frost with min of 0.0°C. Beautiful day walking up Glenholm this afternoon
    2 points
  44. ^^ how most of us wish thats the UK christmas eve !!
    2 points
  45. Fair enough, mate! Personally I hate Autumn, particularly if it goes on for 6 months and we don’t get a winter, as has been the case in far too many recent years...hope different this year, too early to even guess...we will see...
    2 points
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