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According to the reliable cfs, it won’t be a mild winter..well, not all the time anyway!..too be honest, I don’t take any seasonal outlook seriously as the weather is dynamic and doesn’t give a 510 dam about anyone’s predictions!

I only skimmed the AO numbers, most Octobers that high -AO numbers had high -AO front loaded winters.... Late November through Decembers seemed to be the peak negativity but as I said I only skimmed it. October 2009 had a -3 & a -5.9 in Dec October 2010 had a -2.6 & a -5.3 in Dec If I sat & went through it there some inverse ones like 2006. Maybe the good ones are La Nina... Across the piste I would say that there are proportionately more negative Decembers after significantly negative episodes in October than there are positive Decembers which is a good sign. With the solar output & La nina 2010 is a good match

Wet: Wet: Wet: The three main models have gone all Marti Pellow on us at 144hrs

Continued blocking over Northern Europe retrogressing towards Greenland allows the AO to tank to Sub -3 A long way to challenge the record of -5 which was Oct 2002... Whats the net fallout? The jet straddling the UK > Wet windy & chilly!

And I'm struggling to come up with a more inane 'method' of seasonal prediction! But, of course the mighty Spurs will win the domestic treble, this season, as the season ends in a year ending in one!

Broken record time, another very quiet day in here, ending what has been the quietest week in the forum this year I feel. Outlook is less than inspiring and this is probably reason why, no prospects anything appreciably warm, and too early for anything particularly cold, but we have had some very cold nights in some places which have escaped people's attention. Also with everything else going on this week and a general sense of doom and gloom, I'm not surprised at the lack of posts. Alas, injecting some activity again this evening. No change in the models today, all showing a very unsettled pattern for the foreseeable with the jet buckling and the UK left on the cold side, trough locked into place by heights to the SW and NE. Indeed signal for a cut off low development slap bang over us by the weekend and into the following week meaning slow moving heavy rain, strong winds around edge of the low, slack winds in the middle and chilly for all. Hope everybody made the most of the recent dry sunny weather.

Afternoon all! Hope you are all well. Very cold start for many I see! Glorious spell of Autumn weather! Currently sunshine and 7C outside after a freezing start to the day! These pictures below sum up the last few days here - brief heavy showers on Thursday (Mammatus clouds) and sunshine/blue sky galore ever since. Perfect hiking weather - only thing missing for me was snowy peaks! (First settling snowfall usually arrives at the end of October) All the best to you all!

Anybody think the Chief Forecaster just drew as many lines as he could aimed at the UK.

You don’t see a lot of these feats these days. Nice to see!

Hi East 17 boy.. How's the rest of the old boy band doing... Just kidding mate... Thanks to Karl...aka Jon Snow for giving us a little bit of cheer with those CFS charts. For me it's far to early to make predictions for this coming Winter.. Let's not forget its still over 2 months away! Regardless of what Exeter and Gav are predicting and I have respect for both those mentioned..The EC long term anomalies are painting a poor picture for this winter overall.. The last update was September the 5th..and it was showing alot of the Northern Hemisphere to be milder than average, with perhaps January being the colder of the months... But that's very early days, the next update will be October the 5th,so I will update you further come then. But in the meantime perhaps best to not get to stressed over preceedings this early on... For the record I feel a Winter of mixed fortunes looks a good call, and I personally think we will get more action than the previous one.... (wouldn't take much would it) Then we have to consider the possibility of SSW events which would completely shake things up at short notice. Predicting a mild winter will be correct 80 or 90% of the time, with or without skill... But anyone who comes on here and gives good reason for a cold winter to come, and get it right, deserve full credit... Make no mistake about it..

Another one taken by the lake earlier. Temp now 6c in the still strong late September sunshine but one of the best September snowfalls to be seen in these parts for many years. C

Hi Jon, lets hope charts like these come to play when we reach December onwards. Alas a lot of time we see these candy charts or they set up this kind of pattern before real winter and then disappear when we really need them. I am optimistic about this season it's going to be a long rollercoaster ride fingers crossed it will be a start if a trend to cold winters. We have had our run of mild ones ( 2018 being exception) when we had the beast from the east. We just now need a switch in trend and it can begin this year. The story since yesterday from my friends I spoke to has been how the temperatures have dropped in the past few days it has been a bit of a shock to the system. We have a very unsettled week to come and I was already clearing some early fallen leaves from my patio today. Generally a dull and windy day here in Walthamstow today. Have a great day kind regards

Well that's written that period off for any cold stuff...

Nice Sunday morning sunrise on the local mountain. C

Lovely sunny morning blue skies and 1C, birds water was frozen. Fed birds, we've got a mob of wee sparrows living in the hedge and they sit on the fence and look into the kitchen until somebody feeds them.

Wow! Met more than a bit out with their low temps! -3c when I got up! Currently -2c! First proper white frost of Autumn! Stunning morning.

Beautiful day! Walk up the reservoirs with the kids this morning and just back from a 30 mile jaunt round the Pentlands on my bike. Really busy up there today with folks enjoying the weather and meeting friends and family. Got a bit off the beaten track to get some peace and quiet. Stunning! Love weather like today! One snap as I was too busy enjoying being out to take any more Time for a beer or 3!

AN OUTBURST OF PINK AURORAS: Auroras are usually green. Not last night, though. "They were the pinkest of all pinks!" reports tour guide Markus Varik, who sends this picture from Tromsø, Norway:

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational we could be using the F word soon..no, not that F word silly!..Flooding!!!!!...having said that, there is some improvement indicated longer term..for a time!

Third air frost at - 2.7°C. All the begonias are black this morning.

First proper frost of the season. Cars, grass etc all white and still hanging on in the shade. Stunning morning, not a cloud in the sky.

Following a dawn to dusk cracker of a day yesterday, this morning is again dry, sunny and crisp. Temperature currently -0.7 deg.C up from a minimum of -1.4 deg.C at 06:41, relative humidity is 95%, there's no wind, pressure is 1020.3 hPa and steady, and there's been no rain in the last 24 hours. There's a definite frost on the ground this morning so I think I'll advance my usual 1st of October date for putting out the bird feeders.

Morning , well if it’s autumn weather your after then your definitely gonna get it if the ECM is on the ball . Some really nasty storms incoming with severe gales . I say bring it on . The storm around day 7 is a beast .

I'm just drooling at these charts... look at all these possible scenarios. All of these charts are taken from the 12z GFS ensembles - the most unreliable model out there!

Low temp here of 1.6C and DP of 0.2C

Thank goodness for the bolded bit, Jon... At this time of year 'abnormally cool' is a synonym for 'dire'!

Hey Gang, please don’t shoot the messenger..me..that would hurt!..the ECM 0z ensemble mean paints an increasingly unsettled outlook but on the face of it, it doesn’t look abnormally cool / cold!

Definitely picked the wrong year to start growing stuff.... Last frost - May 14th - which is a couple of weeks later than anytime in the previous 12 years June, July and August all less sun than normal And now a first frost 3-4 weeks earlier than normal

December 2002 was mild overall but January and February 2003 weren't too far from average, at least for the CET. Depended on location what you thought of that winter, London had snow in early January and there was the M11 snow fiasco that stranded many drivers at the end of the month. Only a couple of days or so before it was exceptionally mild, the record maximum temperature for January was equalled. Personally, it was typical of those winters of that period of 1997-98-to 2007-2008, not particularly snowy with only short cold periods

00z ECM run gave lots of lovely autumn rain for me, 12z still interesting but less so. We had a lovely settled period of warm sunshine leading up to the Tuesday just gone, but now I'm fully in the mood for Gales and downpours. I've said it every year since, but hopefully this winter is like 2013/14, with a constant battering of deep lows right over the South.

Ok, not far off the mark. Waking up to a happy Saturday in the Austrian Alps. Still snowing with heaviest amounts on the Northern Alps with some rather huge amounts reported this morning. C

Yes, Mark, this is the part of the year I most dislike, summer gone, and winter a few months away. But let us hope for some interesting cold winter weather this year, because without it, given government restrictions (I won’t comment on them in here), we will be in a right mess, with Covid happiest at +4C, pretty much the average UK winter temperature. Cold dance needed!

I find myself now in limbo weather wise . No heat anymore ( unless there is a dramatic change ) but nothing yet for snow . I hope these cool / cold conditions for the time of year does one but come mid November let the snow and ice chase begin . Of course signals will be well documented by many on here between now and then , I dip my hat to you before the Mad seasons commences .

Where are the geese going? The UK weather has a very autumnal feel now and the honking of passing geese overhead, arriving from afar adds to the feeling that summer has gone. Read more here

ECM showing 50-100mm of rain over the next 10 days in many areas. GFS concentrates this over Scotland....but you can be fairly sure there is a high flood risk coming up, as well as gale force winds. A very stormy and unsettled period incoming, and one I’m not looking forward to.

I think it'll be the opposite way round. La Nina winters tend to be front loaded favouring a cold November / December at times with a signal for milder than average conditions later in the winter. We also have warmer than average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic too. This may well favour lower pressure over the Azores but will we see lower pressure over southern Europe too? We shall see, I have a hunch that December will be colder than average with January transitional, February and March mild.

Out on the Howgills today, felt like early Winter, significant wind chill, layers on - bitter wind. A lovely day though crisp with blue skies and polar air bringing plenty of sunshine and clear views. Much rather have such days than grey mild dank skies courtesy of the atlantic. Looking like two excellent weekends on the trot in terms of dry sunny weather, albeit very different in feel from late summer last weekend, to a late autumnal feel this one.

Observed Flux Density 72.6 Adjusted Flux Density 72.9 = low

Well I made a right Horlick’s earlier today when I posted yesterday’s charts because I automatically assumed they would have been updated 24 hours later..it just shows you can’t assume anything..but here’s my second attempt!..and really, I can’t sugar coat it, looking at the GEFS 12z mean for next Friday, you would assume (wow I’m assuming again) the only way is up from such a nadir and indeed there is eventually something of an improvement..for a time at least..but I’ve just had a butchers at the ECM 12z op and it really does become very unsettled indeed during the second half of next week onwards..so it looks like the unsettled face of autumn will be in full swing from next midweek. ...anyway, onwards and upwards..or downwards as the case may be....it all gets us closer to winter!

Second air frost with min of 0.0°C. Beautiful day walking up Glenholm this afternoon

Yes,a disturbed spell of weather looks nailed on now... The anti cyclone to our NE is going to mean lots of rain for us but I want to see it persist and pressure the fledgling vortex... Might produce the goods into Nov/Dec...?

There are some tentative signs from the GEFS 0z that conditions might become more settled towards mid October as per Exeter’s thoughts but certainly it does look like becoming very unsettled from the second half of next week..but it may not last to long beyond that?.. Edit, for some reason these are yesterday’s 0z dammit!!..but I don’t care about that minor detail because I choose to believe the second half of October won’t be as vile as the 1st half..or third anyway!!!!!!!!!

Christ the Euro might actually be wetter than last year.. Between days 4 and 10 it moves through at least four fronts and appears to be lining up another shortwave. Does build Arctic heights though while keeping the high far enough away that it would probably remain quite cool by day at least. Also a decent pattern for Siberian snowcover.

Yep, more ensembles, more possibilities? I think we may come to regret this in winter!!! The ‘what do we do when the pub shuts’ run shows a persistent low, T 162, not nice, but this is Autumn after all:

Fair enough, mate! Personally I hate Autumn, particularly if it goes on for 6 months and we don’t get a winter, as has been the case in far too many recent years...hope different this year, too early to even guess...we will see...

No salvation from tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean...the highs and lows associated with model watching..this is a low..lol

Christ are the models adding insult to injury tonight, ECM 12z T168, T240: Wellcome to the 6 months of hell!