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Well the AO off the scale is an interesting sight !

Well at least the outlook is autumnal which is good enough for me. Let autumn be autumn . Those still looking for summer like weather are fighting a losing cause at this stage .

What's in store? Late Summer! Autumn in full swing, or early bite of Winter! Last nights EC Weeklies bring a very unsettled spell by mid next week, quite a deep area of Low pressure bringing rain and strong winds to many... Also it will be feeling very cool to say the least.. Beyond this and towards mid month, we do get some ridging at times into more Southern parts, so fine conditions will be likely at times. Areas further North will still be subject to further unsettled conditions from the W/NW.. But that's not to say conditions will be poor all the time. Conditions perhaps more generally unsettled come the months end and into early November.. On a whole at this stage temps probably around average North to South... Typically 8 to 12C countrywide. So on the whole, very typical Autumn conditions.. The Winter anomalies will be out on the 5th of October, so by then a chance to see how the first part of winter will be setting out... In the eyes of the EC 46 anyway. Have a fab Weekend if you can.

Hanging out in the Covid thread is starting to depress me, so I took a look at the pub run (ironic, now we can’t be in the pub at this time!), T180, this not too far out of the reliable and looks nasty:

You can do a lot worse! I like your weekend routine of smaller hills one day and bigger hills on the next, a great way to spend the weekend when the weather is favourable. I wasn't out & about on the Saturday but Sunday morning headed up Ben Vrackie from Killiecrankie. Gawd it was glorious! 4C at the start so lovely and fresh and cold, with no midges, no ticks.....and only one ked! The same sadly couldn't be said for the previous Friday on Fraochaidh when I was picking keds out my hair at the rate of one a minute for 9hrs. Horrid! Couldn't detract from an otherwise fine walk though: That feels like an age ago now, though, given how cold it's gone by comparison. I went up Sron Garbh from Kinlochleven yesterday and it was a pretty cold all day, especially on the tops in the morning. So nice to see frost on the ground during the drive north, with much of the stretch between Lix Toll and Rannoch tinged with white And I do get a geeky kick out of seeing the frost warning light come on Enjoying the gradual browning of the landscape, but a nice white dusting would be just the ticket right about now! But regardless, September is a glorious month for hillwalking in Scotland. Lots of stags roaring yesterday too!

Well, hope springs eternal? Light winds, lowish pressure, plenty of moisture... Could the October Fog Index (which is as useful as any other index posted on here @lassie23) get off to a flyer!?

Speculating the Vortex will be weak for the forseeable - I had an exchange with M H on Twitter yesterday ,i read some literature suggesting a strong anti cyclone over the Urals in Autumn points to a disturbed PV.

NH modelling for first third October looks interesting re wave driving early on ..... I recall saying similar this time last year though ....

Sorry but I don’t find wet & windy weather interesting which is the longer term trend from the ECM 12z etc..etc.....but I do find this interesting..deep FI range cfs!

Noticed good signs at present at least for an EP La Nina as opposed to a CP La Nina They each have different effects on the most likely winter pattern we would very likely see in western Europe and the UK The EP variant is most likely to produce a colder than average winter with an increased risk of a -NAO in January to March with December as the least cold of the winter months The CP variant has the biggest risk of cold in December and maybe even November too but the signal for cold rapidly weakens from January onwards as a +NAO pattern is more likely to dominate My weak and moderate La Nina analysis both came out colder than average overall but there was huge variations between the winters within them. Some appeared to be very front loaded and others looked to be colder in the new year. Perhaps the differences between them was the EP La Nina vs the CP La Nina winters The best signals for cold always appear to be to have the coldest anomalies in the eastern Pacific with the warmer waters further west in the central and western Pacific This is also maybe why a modoki El Nino is also good for cold as it is basically a warm version of the EP La Nina Now to get onto the current situation The latest changes in SSTA's look promising in some areas of the world The first which ticks the box for a possible colder UK winter is that dramatic cool down in the equatorial E Pacific, perfect signs for an EP La Nina based on that one and so an increased chance of a -NAO winter with this anomaly change Another good news event is that region of cooling in the N Pacific too. Although not far enough east it could be the first signs of the La Nina having a cooling effect on the Pacific and if it is this then the pattern should continue The third region of cooling is in the N Atlantic with that stripe of cooling taking place where we would want it to if we want to see a tripole forming in the N Atlantic. The only problem is that rapid cooling near Greenland which could undo all of the effects of the cooling in the other zone The next things which look promising for an EP La Nina are the sub surface anomaly charts These charts are based on the last month or two and show what looks like near perfect anomalies to get an EP La Nina 1 - The second wave of cooling was only just appearing here on 27th July 2020 and at this stage it looked like this was going to expand and surface in the CP region, bad news for a colder UK winter except for November and December which could still stand a chance of being colder at least but the overall winter would come out milder than average 2 - By 11th August it was looking even worse as that cold was intensifying and pushing upwards in the central region of the Pacific but was starting to stretch eastwards too but at a slow rate at this point. Still alarm bells sounding "MILD UK WINTER ALERT" 3 - By 26th August the first signs of a possible push to an EP La Nina were starting to show as the cold on the western side of the cold anomaly was weakening slightly whilst the core of the cold had pushed eastwards. Still not totally out of the CP threat but we could now say at least that the mild UK winter threat was reducing somewhat 4 - 10th September shows a further expansion of the cold towards the east Pacific whilst the western edge of the colder anomalies continues to weaken slightly. Also the warmer region in the west has expanded and is pushing eastwards under the surface. This could be helpful in preventing a CP La Nina if only these warmer anomalies could come to the surface west of 160W 5 - The most recent analysis of the anomalies shows how cold the sub surface anomalies have become under the Eastern Pacific, between -4 and -6 below normal in places. Just imagine if that came to the surface and we got a La Nina with a region 3 anomaly of -6C. I will have to keep an eye on these sub surface charts to see if there is a big risk of a strong or even Super Nina. What would an EP Super Nina do for our winter if EP Nina's are supposed to be a good sign for cold weather in the UK winter Sea surface temperature anomaly charts Earth Nullschool Tropical Titbis NOAA Each of the above SSTA charts clearly show the current EP La Nina but the NOAA one also shows up the clear -IOD signal but that annoying warm N Pacific. It is also clear to see that cooler region appearing between the 2 lines in the N Atlantic. Is this a good sign that the tripole that was showing up in May is on the way back again to assist in getting a cold UK winter

A new all-time September low... somewhere in the Scottish Highlands?

Got to North Leeds and there is still a fair bit of hail lying around

^was just about to mention the Hvar cam anyway,here you go. lightning.mp4

Chilly this morning.. a mix of showers and sunshine. Breezy still and I woke to the heating having kick in overnight . Which means the temperature has dropped below 18c inside. Not all bad tho as my floors are now toasty and warm. Looks like a cool weekend coming up, if only it was winter proper could have been some fun and games being had. Oh well plenty of time for that to come.

It would be more interesting had it been a December chart though

Oooh, Jon. You are a naughty boy! But I agree that our prospects in the immediate future are far from exciting. The start of October looks cloudy, cool and very wet at times if the GFS gets its way with slack low pressure meandering around over the UK for eight days.....

Dry but overcast (bar fleeting appearance of the sun around teatime). Cold start with overnight low of 4c; max of 11c. Always impressed at how quickly a flock of starlings can strip a tree of berries - one of our 15ft+ high rowans was descended upon by a flock in the morning and was stripped by late afternoon. Noisy eaters as well! Nice sunset this evening.

Hi, sat at Spurn Point watching spectacular Lightning to the NW, so still and calm here. Regards, Glenn

The Lake District has some tops which are white, I presume this is from hail yesterday evening.!!

It's been a decent day. The cloud built up by lunchtime to about five or six eighths cover, the wind has averaged 2mph from the north or just west of north with a gust of 17mph at 12:51, r.h. at 64%, pressure at 1013.7 hPa. Temperature now 11.7 deg.C with a maximum of 14.4 deg.C at 14:30.

GFS 00Z op pretty much a warm outlier in terms of 850s thankfully, although the control does follow it closely. Bring on the autumn weather I say, we've had our fair share of warmth and dry weather this September.

NOAA 500mb charts have been consistent for several days now, so its looking very much like an unsettled wet start to October is fairly certain...

Piers Corbyn's too busy spouting Covid conspiracy theories to get his annual snowmageddon article into the Daily Express

A couple of compilations of the trieste storm. Trieste 5.mp4 Trieste 4.mp4

I'm just drooling at these charts... look at all these possible scenarios. All of these charts are taken from the 12z GFS ensembles - the most unreliable model out there!

Loving these proper autumn charts personally!

Wow!, where did this come from, absolutely pouring down outside and winds going mental, even started off with hail in it for a min or so, could see them pinging off of the car roof.

For those of us still hoping for something that vaguely feels like summer during early October, there are a few warm charts on the GEFS 12z...BUT...the form horse is for a generally very unsettled, autumnal rather cool / sometimes windy outlook although as we know, nothing is set in stone once we hit low res and even if we are looking at an unsettled outlook, which apparently we are, there is a signal for something more benign from around mid month from Exeter with fine days and foggy nights with a risk of overnight frosts.

Looks like a supercell to me, especially the first picture. Paul will be able to confirm. @Paul Sherman

Pretty much the same temperature today as in the last couple of days. However is mostly cloudy and that NNE wind has a real edge to it now. 11C.

It's up there with the OPI for accuracy lol October Pie Index

Doesn't seem to any warmth in sight at the moment. However, October can still deliver warm days and models can change at relatively short notice, so for those wanting some Autumn warmth all hope is not lost!

A pretty wild day on the cards for the Norfolk and Suffolk coastal strip today. Latest observations from Meteociel (10.50) shows a 91km (56mph) gust on the North Norfolk coast: Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/vent-rafales.php?region=uk This morning's Arpege run suggesting the peak will be around 17.00 - 18.00 this afternoon with the possibility of a 130km (80mph) gust anywhere down the East Anglian coast: Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=10&mode=11&map=330 I'm approx 20 miles inland from the Suffolk coast and have had a gust of 38mph so far this morning, with the graph line (wind strength) steadily rising. And so far 7.4mm of rain:

Absolutely no science involved here but I am going for a front loaded winter with a cold end to November before a very cold December very similar to 2010. C.S

I'm still going for those blizzards at Christmas!

A bright start here in South cheshire but temperature struggling at only 9c with a nagging cold breeze just taken the dog out and out of the sun it certainly felt on the cold side. C.S

What an utterly vile outlook we have in store, Jon? So, if cold rain is what you're after, this one's for you! God, I hate autumn!

Another cracking morning with clear skies, bright sunlight and an autumnal crispness in the air. Temperature now 5.4 deg.C after an overnight low of 2.2 deg.C at 04:55, 84% relative humidity, no wind, no rain, no cloud and pressure at 1010.1 hPa.

I certainly didn't expect to see images of hail on roads like its snow on my timeline yesterday but I was pleasantly surprised. Never seen hail lay here properly at all so you guys are lucky buggers! Reminds me of a similar September hail storm in Cornwall in 2013:

Nice one Jon. Charts like that gave me near a metre of snow in March 2013. I would settle for 50cm on the night of the 24th December.

I have picked up lightning strikes over 80 miles away on my detector, and that has a 25 mile limit to it as well. The reason for detecting strikes further away (with cheaper detectors) is that bodies of water can sometimes act as a repeater, which increases the distance of detection.

Extremely powerful strike just occurred in the English Channel about 10 minutes ago. Meteologix detected the strike as 174kA. Never seen it that high before. @matt111's lightning detector picked this up, and it only detects strikes less than 25 miles away... this strike was double that distance.

Here's a teaser from tonight!

Yh one of the best Supercell radar representations of the year on that Bridlington Storm Nathan was on earlier and having seen some of the shots unedited on the back of his camera on his live stream they will be worth the wait. Interesting 2nd cell gone up probably on its outflow to its South showing interesting radar returns as well and all this with temps on the 40s F North is the place to be nowadays been Banging that drum for the last few years and so it continues

Ok , I do not expect scenes like the picture below taken on the local mountain last winter but this weekend looks like producing our first snowfall of the season.A colder air mass will be digging into the Alps on Saturday morning with a new low circulation in the Gulf of Genoa. Always a good sign for enhanced precipitation in the Eastern Alps. The Northern Alps should see snowfall above 1300m by mid day Saturday, the Southern Alps less snow risk with a developing Nord Fohn. The latest fine mesh snow model has 9cm in the village at 12noon Saturday at 1350m asl and a temp of -5c on the berg at 2200m. Lets see how accurate at the time . Getting excited. C

Heavy hail passed through here too at 6.9C. This will probably be the wintriest weather we get now until end of February

I think it’s fair to say that settled / anticyclonic charts are becoming harder to find (at the moment) but it’s much easier to at least find some warm, perhaps very warm SE’ly winds during early October...however, with strong heights to the east, North Atlantic lows tend to become stuck over and around the u k with nowhere else to go and are then reinforced by further lows so I would say that apart from an increasingly fine but cool weekend as a ridge builds in from the west, next week gradually becomes more unsettled again...but early October could see above average temperatures, especially across the s / se.

Trying to keep this thread active, and surprised not much more comment or speculation, given likelihood many will see there first ground frost of the season at least by end of the weekend. I'm sensing the forum as a whole is exceptionally quiet at present.

Love watching your time lapses WH,i too was noticing later this afternoon that the clouds slowed right down with hardly a breeze in the air,there was a line of Cu developing to my north this evening,that moved south instead of NE,the clouds where moving up from the SW earlier this afternoon,strange,CZ maybe or the low pivoting around.