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Showing content with the highest reputation on 25/09/20 in Posts

  1. Well the AO off the scale is an interesting sight !
    24 points
  2. Well at least the outlook is autumnal which is good enough for me. Let autumn be autumn . Those still looking for summer like weather are fighting a losing cause at this stage .
    14 points
  3. What's in store? Late Summer! Autumn in full swing, or early bite of Winter! Last nights EC Weeklies bring a very unsettled spell by mid next week, quite a deep area of Low pressure bringing rain and strong winds to many... Also it will be feeling very cool to say the least.. Beyond this and towards mid month, we do get some ridging at times into more Southern parts, so fine conditions will be likely at times. Areas further North will still be subject to further unsettled conditions from the W/NW.. But that's not to say conditions will be poor all the time. Conditions perhaps more genera
    11 points
  4. Hanging out in the Covid thread is starting to depress me, so I took a look at the pub run (ironic, now we can’t be in the pub at this time!), T180, this not too far out of the reliable and looks nasty:
    10 points
  5. You can do a lot worse! 🙂 I like your weekend routine of smaller hills one day and bigger hills on the next, a great way to spend the weekend when the weather is favourable. I wasn't out & about on the Saturday but Sunday morning headed up Ben Vrackie from Killiecrankie. Gawd it was glorious! 4C at the start so lovely and fresh and cold, with no midges, no ticks.....and only one ked! The same sadly couldn't be said for the previous Friday on Fraochaidh when I was picking keds out my hair at the rate of one a minute for 9hrs. Horrid! Couldn't detract from an ot
    9 points
  6. Well, hope springs eternal? Light winds, lowish pressure, plenty of moisture... Could the October Fog Index (which is as useful as any other index posted on here @lassie23) get off to a flyer!?
    9 points
  7. Speculating the Vortex will be weak for the forseeable - I had an exchange with M H on Twitter yesterday ,i read some literature suggesting a strong anti cyclone over the Urals in Autumn points to a disturbed PV.
    9 points
  8. NH modelling for first third October looks interesting re wave driving early on ..... I recall saying similar this time last year though ....
    7 points
  9. Sorry but I don’t find wet & windy weather interesting which is the longer term trend from the ECM 12z etc..etc.....but I do find this interesting..deep FI range cfs!😁😉 ❄️
    7 points
  10. Noticed good signs at present at least for an EP La Nina as opposed to a CP La Nina They each have different effects on the most likely winter pattern we would very likely see in western Europe and the UK The EP variant is most likely to produce a colder than average winter with an increased risk of a -NAO in January to March with December as the least cold of the winter months The CP variant has the biggest risk of cold in December and maybe even November too but the signal for cold rapidly weakens from January onwards as a +NAO pattern is more likely to dominate My weak a
    6 points
  11. A new all-time September low... somewhere in the Scottish Highlands?
    6 points
  12. Got to North Leeds and there is still a fair bit of hail lying around
    6 points
  13. ^was just about to mention the Hvar cam anyway,here you go. lightning.mp4
    5 points
  14. Chilly this morning.. a mix of showers and sunshine. Breezy still and I woke to the heating having kick in overnight 😩. Which means the temperature has dropped below 18c inside. Not all bad tho as my floors are now toasty and warm. Looks like a cool weekend coming up, if only it was winter proper could have been some fun and games being had. Oh well plenty of time for that to come.
    5 points
  15. It would be more interesting had it been a December chart though 😁
    5 points
  16. Oooh, Jon. You are a naughty boy! But I agree that our prospects in the immediate future are far from exciting. The start of October looks cloudy, cool and very wet at times if the GFS gets its way with slack low pressure meandering around over the UK for eight days.....
    5 points
  17. Dry but overcast (bar fleeting appearance of the sun around teatime). Cold start with overnight low of 4c; max of 11c. Always impressed at how quickly a flock of starlings can strip a tree of berries - one of our 15ft+ high rowans was descended upon by a flock in the morning and was stripped by late afternoon. Noisy eaters as well! Nice sunset this evening.
    5 points
  18. Hi, sat at Spurn Point watching spectacular Lightning to the NW, so still and calm here. Regards, Glenn
    5 points
  19. The Lake District has some tops which are white, I presume this is from hail yesterday evening.!!
    4 points
  20. It's been a decent day. The cloud built up by lunchtime to about five or six eighths cover, the wind has averaged 2mph from the north or just west of north with a gust of 17mph at 12:51, r.h. at 64%, pressure at 1013.7 hPa. Temperature now 11.7 deg.C with a maximum of 14.4 deg.C at 14:30.
    4 points
  21. GFS 00Z op pretty much a warm outlier in terms of 850s thankfully, although the control does follow it closely. Bring on the autumn weather I say, we've had our fair share of warmth and dry weather this September.
    4 points
  22. NOAA 500mb charts have been consistent for several days now, so its looking very much like an unsettled wet start to October is fairly certain...
    4 points
  23. Piers Corbyn's too busy spouting Covid conspiracy theories to get his annual snowmageddon article into the Daily Express
    4 points
  24. A couple of compilations of the trieste storm. Trieste 5.mp4 Trieste 4.mp4
    3 points
  25. I'm just drooling at these charts... look at all these possible scenarios. 🤤 All of these charts are taken from the 12z GFS ensembles - the most unreliable model out there!
    3 points
  26. Loving these proper autumn charts personally!
    3 points
  27. Wow!, where did this come from, absolutely pouring down outside and winds going mental, even started off with hail in it for a min or so, could see them pinging off of the car roof. 😮
    3 points
  28. For those of us still hoping for something that vaguely feels like summer during early October, there are a few warm charts on the GEFS 12z...BUT...the form horse 🐴 is for a generally very unsettled, autumnal rather cool / sometimes windy outlook although as we know, nothing is set in stone once we hit low res and even if we are looking 👀 at an unsettled outlook, which apparently we are, there is a signal for something more benign from around mid month from Exeter with fine days and foggy nights with a risk of overnight frosts.
    3 points
  29. Looks like a supercell to me, especially the first picture. Paul will be able to confirm. @Paul Sherman
    3 points
  30. Pretty much the same temperature today as in the last couple of days. However is mostly cloudy and that NNE wind has a real edge to it now. 11C.
    3 points
  31. It's up there with the OPI for accuracy lol October Pie Index
    3 points
  32. Doesn't seem to any warmth in sight at the moment. However, October can still deliver warm days and models can change at relatively short notice, so for those wanting some Autumn warmth all hope is not lost!
    3 points
  33. A pretty wild day on the cards for the Norfolk and Suffolk coastal strip today. Latest observations from Meteociel (10.50) shows a 91km (56mph) gust on the North Norfolk coast: Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/vent-rafales.php?region=uk This morning's Arpege run suggesting the peak will be around 17.00 - 18.00 this afternoon with the possibility of a 130km (80mph) gust anywhere down the East Anglian coast: Source: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=10&mode=11&map=330 I'm approx 20 miles inland from the Suffolk coast and have
    3 points
  34. Absolutely no science involved here but I am going for a front loaded winter with a cold end to November before a very cold December very similar to 2010. C.S
    3 points
  35. I'm still going for those blizzards at Christmas! 😆
    3 points
  36. A bright start here in South cheshire but temperature struggling at only 9c with a nagging cold breeze just taken the dog out and out of the sun it certainly felt on the cold side. C.S
    3 points
  37. What an utterly vile outlook we have in store, Jon? So, if cold rain is what you're after, this one's for you! God, I hate autumn!
    3 points
  38. Another cracking morning with clear skies, bright sunlight and an autumnal crispness in the air. Temperature now 5.4 deg.C after an overnight low of 2.2 deg.C at 04:55, 84% relative humidity, no wind, no rain, no cloud and pressure at 1010.1 hPa.
    3 points
  39. I certainly didn't expect to see images of hail on roads like its snow on my timeline yesterday but I was pleasantly surprised. Never seen hail lay here properly at all so you guys are lucky buggers! Reminds me of a similar September hail storm in Cornwall in 2013:
    3 points
  40. Nice one Jon. Charts like that gave me near a metre of snow in March 2013. I would settle for 50cm on the night of the 24th December.
    3 points
  41. I have picked up lightning strikes over 80 miles away on my detector, and that has a 25 mile limit to it as well. The reason for detecting strikes further away (with cheaper detectors) is that bodies of water can sometimes act as a repeater, which increases the distance of detection.
    3 points
  42. Extremely powerful strike just occurred in the English Channel about 10 minutes ago. Meteologix detected the strike as 174kA. Never seen it that high before. @matt111's lightning detector picked this up, and it only detects strikes less than 25 miles away... this strike was double that distance.
    3 points
  43. Yh one of the best Supercell radar representations of the year on that Bridlington Storm Nathan was on earlier and having seen some of the shots unedited on the back of his camera on his live stream they will be worth the wait. Interesting 2nd cell gone up probably on its outflow to its South showing interesting radar returns as well and all this with temps on the 40s F 😅 North is the place to be nowadays been Banging that drum for the last few years and so it continues
    3 points
  44. Ok , I do not expect scenes like the picture below taken on the local mountain last winter but this weekend looks like producing our first snowfall of the season.A colder air mass will be digging into the Alps on Saturday morning with a new low circulation in the Gulf of Genoa. Always a good sign for enhanced precipitation in the Eastern Alps. The Northern Alps should see snowfall above 1300m by mid day Saturday, the Southern Alps less snow risk with a developing Nord Fohn. The latest fine mesh snow model has 9cm in the village at 12noon Saturday at 1350m asl and a temp of -5c on the berg at
    3 points
  45. Heavy hail passed through here too at 6.9C. This will probably be the wintriest weather we get now until end of February
    3 points
  46. I think it’s fair to say that settled / anticyclonic charts are becoming harder to find (at the moment) but it’s much easier to at least find some warm, perhaps very warm SE’ly winds during early October...however, with strong heights to the east, North Atlantic lows tend to become stuck over and around the u k with nowhere else to go and are then reinforced by further lows so I would say that apart from an increasingly fine but cool weekend as a ridge builds in from the west, next week gradually becomes more unsettled again...but early October could see above average temperatures, especially
    3 points
  47. Even if it was end of october i would have got kinda excited lol!!you just know come 1 month from now vortex will probably be raging away around greenland/iceland!
    2 points
  48. Nice to read the frost reports, lowest here was 5.9 C I was going to say looks like the frost chances on Friday night have downgraded but given how low the temps were in some places last night and u can never really tell if the models are overplaying or underplaying temps then who knows 😆
    2 points
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