Leaderboard

I have never seen anything like that before, when the sky turned green I knew something was coming but didn’t expect that! Multiple CG’s and the ground is white over with hail, temperature has is also dropped to just 4C. Absolutely insane!

Here's a teaser from tonight!

Hi, sat at Spurn Point watching spectacular Lightning to the NW, so still and calm here. Regards, Glenn

Yh one of the best Supercell radar representations of the year on that Bridlington Storm Nathan was on earlier and having seen some of the shots unedited on the back of his camera on his live stream they will be worth the wait. Interesting 2nd cell gone up probably on its outflow to its South showing interesting radar returns as well and all this with temps on the 40s F North is the place to be nowadays been Banging that drum for the last few years and so it continues

Gotcha!

Another quiet day in here. Models firming up on a cold unsettled outlook for the foreseeable, UK firmly locked on the cold side of the jet, with trough squeezed into the UK on a NW-SE trajectory thanks to a highly amplified pattern, heights to our west and east. Lots of cold rain ahead, perhaps some white stuff for highest northern ground.

Heavy hail passed through here too at 6.9C. This will probably be the wintriest weather we get now until end of February

Snap, nice and frosty outside. Altnaharra is also at - 5c, not long until snow hunting begins now

Cold one this morning! Currently 1c with a low of 0c overnight. Coldest night yet!

It does look like an increasingly fine weekend to come, especially by Sunday but certainly on the cool side with a risk of overnight ground frosts in rural areas, particularly further north..but looking into low res, things could become very interesting to say the least, indeed the cfs shows some insane / brutal cold at times during the months ahead..just for fun at this stage though but at least I’m trying to bring a bit of interest back to the model output discussion since it’s been dead as a dodo today!

Had some lovely Mammatus clouds overhead earlier.

Honestly mate, best storm of the year on a cold day in September, would never have thought it.

Watching these North Sea showers coming east to west - if only it were December !

Chilly at -0.7C - first air frost Thick freezing fog too - driving this morning on untreated roads was fun and who doesn't put their headlights on when visibility is less than 50m? Here's the same shot with two hours between in the garden. The first at that low of -0.7C and the second just now at +1.7C.

Very impressive cold this morning in northern Scotland -5.0C in Altnaharra this smashed the former monthly record low at site by 1.5C from 1993 - also it was coldest September night in UK since 1986.

Seriously impressive

Half an inch of hail from that storm over my folks house in Sproatley close to Hull. Just heavy rain here.

I did notice the rotation in the storm also, can still hear the thunder now. It was actually scary driving through it because I thought the windscreen was about to smash! It’s the closest I have seen to a supercell for many years anyhow.

I'm about to go for my flu jab, which is being dispensed in the surgery car park as a drive through exercise. I've been told to wear a short sleeved shirt to make delivering the jab easier. What are they going to do? Dart me as I drive past? Oh, and it's currently 12.0 deg.C, and I drive a canvas top land rover. Perfect short sleeve shirt weather. Still, at least it's sunny.

Storm here in Bromsgrove, Worcs at the mo...great cracks of thunder!!

Cold start here too at 1.5c with an extensive grass frost.Currently dull, almost calm and 9c

What an amazing chart in contrasts. Negative phase in the extreme coming up- bulls eye -The British Isles. Probably means lots of rain and depressed temps for much of NW Europe. C

Typical, just as I come up to Blackpool!!! Anyhow, can see interesting clouds out NW in the Irish Sea, a layer with a distinct lower layer (dead centre in pic), just where the white is on the radar.

distant thunder to the east about over where my new house is. Wish I was there.

Some seasonal models have it shifted towards west, like UKMO and it was also mentioned by @Snowy Hibbo in his initial winter blog. Right now of course it is very much like EP La Nina without doubt, as you can see on my attached images comparing current SST with both type of Ninas. @sebastiaan1973 intriguing stuff with the chaotic QBO,up for grabs Nina strength and positioning, IOD neither here or there,extra aerosol from wildfires in upper atomosphere, new solar cycle beginning which should correlate with more blocking also waters of the east coast of USA have cooled - another good news I think, now hints of Ural high pressuring early season vortex formation. I feel a lot more excitement then this time last year for sure.

Well so much for my thought yesterday that sunny mornings might now be behind us. Not a cloud in the sky and the front of the house is bathed in the brightest sunlight. A real pleasure to get out of bed this morning. Temperature currently 4.4 deg.C after an overnight minimum of 0.4 deg.C at 05:29, relative humidity of 95%, no wind, pressure at 994.9 hPa adjusted, no rain in the last 24 hours.

A quick look at the start of October, only 7 days away now, and these three models all agree that we should expect an unsettled spell with low pressure dominating although they’re not completely in agreement about the depth and position of the main feature...... 500s 850s ECM GFS GEM This could still go either way - the low pressure system could weaken, or intensify (especially if the GFS gets its way!). Will we have to endure some severe Autumn storms this year? Too early to tell but I’m keeping a weather eye out. ?

A lovely sunset here this evening..

Happens twice every year (March and September) near where I live, the sunsets between two trees. These two sunsets, 11 1/2 years apart March 2009 Last evening

Towering cumulus spotted to my north, showing up on the radar

long hail session here about 12:30, still lingering on glass now. Quite a change . Super showers going past east Lothian this morning

It was -2C here last night so that's the first of the season.

Heaviest downpour I've had since May. Summer was a bit pathetic. 20200924_160347 (online-video-cutter.com) (1).mp4

Thunder heard here

A bit of thunder and lightning around Northants in the past 10 minutes. Soon brightening back up again, as the rain continues to fall.

Just had an almighty clap of thunder! ... Well if it wasn’t thunder then something very bad has just happened on the A55! Edit: Confirmed thunder.

From Met Office -Last night the temperature fell to -5.0°C at Altnaharra, making it the coldest September night in the UK since 1997 The record minimum temperature for September is -6.7°C, recorded in Dalwhinnie on 26th September 1942.

This one looks a bit borderline between the EP and CP event. Will more likely get too strong or push into CP if we keep on posting SOI figures like we are doing on a regular basis at the moment Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution 24 Sep 2020 14.26 23 Sep 2020 7.43 22 Sep 2020 12.72 21 Sep 2020 14.32 20 Sep 2020 13.73 19 Sep 2020 10.28 18 Sep 2020 12.84 AVERAGE SOI 18TH TO 24TH SEP: 12.23 Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution 17 Sep 2020 17.89 16 Sep 2020 14.09 15 Sep 2020 7.67 14 Sep 2020 2.14 13 Sep 2020 3.03 12 Sep 2020 6.30 11 Sep 2020 1.25 AVERAGE SOI 11TH TO 17TH SEP: 7.48 Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution 10 Sep 2020 0.12 9 Sep 2020 -6.00 8 Sep 2020 -2.61 7 Sep 2020 13.31 6 Sep 2020 12.18 5 Sep 2020 8.56 4 Sep 2020 6.78 AVERAGE SOI 4TH TO 10TH SEP: 4.62 Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution Date Daily Contribution 3 Sep 2020 12.60 2 Sep 2020 20.15 1 Sep 2020 18.66 31 Aug 2020 21.36 30 Aug 2020 22.70 29 Aug 2020 18.63 28 Aug 2020 9.65 AVERAGE SOI 28TH AUG to 3RD SEP: 17.68 I think in order to stop us from getting a CP La Nina we really need to post a few more negative SOI numbers to keep the La Nina focused in the EP to increase our chances of a colder winter and to also prevent the La Nina getting too strong

Some sferics over South Wales at the moment. Can see the cbs from here.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1308668994094796800 East based #LaNina really getting going now, all eyes on this as one of the 'drivers' for potential influences on the winter pattern, a weak to moderate Nina potentially aiding in the risk of colder weather early in the winter. Some signs for a -ve IOD getting going too...

Some form of Ural high pressure/blocking is still evident in the extended forecast period, would be great if it can persist as long as possible as according to recent study it is much better correlated with NAO blocking in Dec/Jan then Siberian snow cover extend. See abstract of study and extended GEFS anomaly

A cool but sunny morning here. It clouded over a bit in the afternoon and there have been a few showers coming in from the NE. Enough gaps in the cloud to give a gorgeous sunset.

i know its a long way off but this could be something to keep an eye on

Indeed Zak..and this from earlier (GEFS 6z) was spectacular to!!..Indian summer? cherries included!

A couple of photos to add to the autumn theme as trees change colour and a laden holly tree as well. Lots of geese going over every morning but we still have 5 swallows left this morning