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Beautiful UKMO this morning... The uppers are very high across the South and it all looks quite slack by 144, potential pyrotechnics on offer?

Plenty of UKMO esque GEFS members- PTB 2 pumping the +21c line into Kent day 7/8

Pretty big adjustment by GFS for Sunday. Can be tracked back to two main factors: The sharp upper trough clearing from next to Scotland a little faster on Saturday and the heat low over France being centred a few hundred miles further west - which brings it in line with most of the other modelling so far today. Let's see if this adjustment holds for the remaining two GFS runs of today... along with the arguably more important ECM and UKMO runs, of course.

With all the storms the models are predicting, for next week, a pair of metal-detecting lightning sandals might come in handy:

I had a brief twitter chat with Marco P regarding the despondency felt yesterday. He was unequivocal, insisting no downgrades from the UKMO perspective, and advised against getting hung up on individual runs. He seemed very confident. I know they take a lot of stick, but he's very approachable. (apologies if this isn't deemed specific enough for the model watching thread)

Not sure what the issue is mate...just pointing out what the modelling shows at present. Highly caveated at that range as ever. Aren't you the fella that despises storms?

Utterly outrageous UKMO, in fact the run is pretty much the same as the morning run. The day 6 chart has the 18C isotherm across all of England except the south west and a slack southerly across the east of the UK. The heat remains at all times in the south and starts getting pushes quickly north on Monday. The GFS is also very good for the weekend, the south possibly low to mid thirties on both days. In fact that temperature is reached even with thunderstorms pushing north out of France. This lasts into next week with the warmth spreading northwards.

Theres something not right here.... the NOAA 500mb 6-10 day chart below appears to be out on its own. Mid point of 6-10 days is 8 days or t192. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECM pictured below at t192. Both show a strong Azores ridge with shallow troughing to our South over France, with high pressure right over Scandinavia. The corresponding 850's are good and suggest heat and humidity. But the consistent NOAA 500mb charts simply does not support this... That chart suggests the Scandinavian high is closer, centred more over Norway . It suggests theres troughing West of Northwestern Spain and the Azores high shunted Westwards. If the NOAA chart becomes reality, surely we will bake!, but the ops dont paint such a good picture, being more thundery and with that easterly flow off the north sea, will suppress temps. It will be interesting to see whether the usually more accurate (for this timeframe) NOAA charts are nearer the mark, or whether the ops that are keen to bring a cooler Azores high into play will prevail.

Aye, and ECM T72 is eye candy for the hot squad,

Holy shizzles... just woken up to some amazing runs today! If the 00z ECM comes off then it could potentially result in one of the most thundery periods in years. Take a look at this - click on the 'Rain, thunder' option (make sure you choose ECM as the model) and play it from Sunday onwards. Madness! Windy as forecasted WWW.WINDY.COM Wind map and weather forecast

I gotta say this is preety much a great looking ECM 0z ensemble mean for the most part..get ready for a summertime special..I’m so much excited!!!?️

Ecm ensembles out - probably 70% of runs would produce a maximum in the 90Fs, and 20-30% would be as hot as Friday in the SE. Daren't look further, not good for my OCD

Day 4 never seen an easterly that hot before- Awaiting day 5 poss +19/20c

Yes the UKMO 144 is furnace conditions for the South of the UK- Heathrow under well established +19/20 uppers with near stationery air will be chasing down the top end 30 numbers. Its the sort of run where is maintained would breech the 40c Mark ( over 2-3 days build up )

Certainly some interest showing on the NetWx MR model: Maybe some imported activity. Plenty of moisture pushing up and dew points creeping up to 17 / 18°C in Southern counties.

No mention of this insanity from UKMO this morning??

BUT, has any model got the upper trough correct yet for next week ? I very much doubt it ...... over analysis beyond Sunday is a bit of a waste of your time at the moment

ECM 168 has +20c back in the SE another very hot run !

ECM pretty similar to UKMO at 120 +18c isotherm back in the SE

ECM T144 I’d imagine the heat plume would waft back west a bit in next two frames. We will see....

The GFS starting to also really draw in the hotter air again during the early part of the next week. Anyway both Friday and Saturday look exceptionally hot for the SE quarter of the country. Given the models are now not forcing the upper heat out of the way and the uppers if anything slightly INCREASE from Friday, there is indeed an increasingly good chance that Saturday also could end up being a top 5 hottest ever day challenger, and with that a fair chance one of the two days will challenge the all time record. Could be looking at 96hrs where the SE quarter of above 16c at 850hpa and with an airflow that only occasionally may draw in slightly moderated air from the north sea. Any time it switches back even ESE temperatures are going to climb back towards 35c next week. Sunday might be somewhat cooler given a Eish flow, though the further south you are the greater the chance of the heat holding on (and I still strongly suspect somewhere maxes above 32c on Sunday) but a real chance the winds flip back ESE/SE from Monday and if that happens things are going to become exceptionally hot again. PS - some of these runs are getting so hot they are starting to spawn thermal lows. don't see that all that often in this neck of the woods, its generally a subtropical thing!

12z UKMO shows 16c isotherm reaching Scotland, that's pretty hot. 35c+ I reckon somewhere in the south. @144

The hot uppers never really go away for the SE on the ICON 12z run:

Amazing how the gfs pushed everything east last 48 hours and now has pushed the heat further north and west again!!love these upgrades closer to the event.reminds me of winter when we see last minute upgrades to a snowy slider or easterly winds from siberia

Met Office in-house model has upped Friday’s temperatures. 38’C....

I knew it wasn’t sorted yet! A shift hotter by GFS before it succumbed to its usual convective feedback issues. A huge shift back hotter by UKMO as noted by MWB. It’s almost like the previous run some kind of bugged output - but probably just a bizarrely large fluctuation for the model. ECM 00z tolling out, also has the hot air further north as of +120. A bit further than GFS. Let’s see how the low to the south is handled.

Gfs 18Z is very hot for SE, and hot for some others too - the potential heat shouldn't be underestimated - it is extremely difficult to get the GFS to show 30C+ on its raw output even in top-grade plumes, so for it to show 31-33C maxes five days in a row, between D2 & D6, is really exceptional. I don't expect the UK record to go in this period, but equally it wouldn't shock me if it did.

So after all the gnashing of teeth about it turning a lot colder here in the capitol sat - Met office forecasting a rapid drop to 35c that day. So with 37c during the day & Around 21-22c overnight we are not far off a daily CET of 30c !!! In that one day if the CET up to the 6th was 17c by the end of the full day it would be uo to 18.8c. Again if we are at 17c for Day 6 to get to 20c for day 8 we would need 58c over 2 days = 29c per day. So we will probably hit 20c Sun / Mon...

T96: I think this is the point it gets interesting, yes Friday, but the real interest is early next week. If this slides to a SE rather than E wind like UKMO, it could get very hot.....

No need to worry Zak: If only I would take my own advice! PS: And I still (half of the time, at least) haven't the faintest idea what I'm on about! That said: I'm effing glad my boss told me not to come in on Friday... as it'll very likely be too hot. Thank you, Niamh!

Incredible run. The thunderstorms if they come with it will likely be out of this world too. A very Florida Esque run!

Gfs continues to upgrade the heat on the 12z and now joins ukmo!!ukmo looks stunning?

I think part of the reason is we don’t get the hourly snapshots until 48 hours before the day in question arrives (three hourly snapshots for Saturday of course as at today 12:00, 15:00, 18:00 ect ect) - that gives a better understanding on the predicted temperatures. (14:00/16:00 could be hotter than 15:00 for example) Tomorrow for example: 14:00 15:00 16:00 Cloudy start for many but the temperatures heat up of course - hottest max of the day for a few is at 16:00. Even I am bored of discussing temperatures now - was excited when it all began!

I think it would be tropical more than simply wet. Heat, storms, torrential downpours... Many on here would find it exciting I think. And we could do with the rain around here.

Friday's GFS 00Z predictions looks okay, to me; so extrapolating from my local forecast max of 30C, the UK's max would be 36.8C... And though some might call this 'over analysis', I like to call it what it is: guesswork! And, for further out? All up in the air... the sensitivity that enables Old Man GFS to pick-up on February heatwaves, two-weeks' out, does, IMO, become its major weakness when it comes to its over-zealous short-term flappability...? And the op T850 ends up as one of the 'coldest' members, at 4C... Bloody freezing! FWIW, I've discovered a much less traumatic/stressful way of appreciating model runs: divorce them entirely from the weather (if that makes sense) -- over which, they have absolutely no influence!? Enjoy the upcoming heat and storms!

GFS is king . . .

Morning all Latest UKV: Friday 12:00 and 15:00: 35C maximum. Saturday 12:00 and 15:00: 33C maximum. Have a good day!

I'm just going to put the UKMO uppers chart T144 here for reference. There's been no other chart like it for this timescale, even in the ensembles. So different to its run last night!

And probably just the raw values, which will be less than what is achieved. Last week, the BBC were forecasting 34C for Friday, even on the day itself when it was obviously going to easily surpass that figure. GFS 12z is a huge cool outlier!

And I have embarrassed myself once again

Given where the heat is, that looks almost perfect positioning of the high to get the heat over us, and for a prolonged period unlike last weeks 1 day plume: UKMO T144:

UKMO hot for Sat deffo +30c

For the record, July 2020 in the East: Temperatures: Slightly cooler than average (-0.3°C) but with the hottest day reaching 36°C on the 31st Rainfall: Near-normal (99%) Sunshine: Slightly below-average (89%) With thanks to Weatherquest via Twitter @danholley_

Just a quick run through of the current temperatures compared with the models 00z/06z suite today: GFS: Too low today by around 2c ECM: Too low today by a similar amount, maybe a touch more. ICON: Too low today, but less error than the other two. CMC: Too low but again closer than the other global models, as per normal in hot situations. ARPEGE: Pretty close to spot on, maybe the 26c area a shade too small. This again gives higher level of confidence in the likelyhood of a 36-37c today that the ARPEGE is forecasting, given it appears to have the best grasp of todays heat already. If we run forward a similar error on the forecasts for Friday, ECM gives a 35-36c and GFS 35C.

It's becoming a little difficult to keep up with these posts right now folks due to the fact I can't find the time to visit as often as I would like.. But great stuff as usual.. I think the met office needs to start a mass roll out to employ some of you guys. A quick glance at the 6z mean and what is not to like! It brings us Summer lovers everything... Heat, Sunshine, and potentially some hum dinger storms.. The mean gets very close to bring +20C uppers in next week also.. That's pretty impressive for a mean.. Enjoy the heat if you can and stay safe..

Last one of the day...getting into that reliable (silly thing to say I know ) timeframe for temperatures on Friday. Wee 36C popping up now... UKV: 12:00 and 15:00 You have got to think at least 36C is now nailed on for Friday.

It was showing hot conditions consistently until yesterday’s 12z, and has now reverted back to something even hotter. Maybe the Met Office had the forecast right after all? In which case, I’d gladly eat humble pie!

Well the ECM has returned to one of its hot runs from earlier in the week. I won't post my "adjusted raw predictions" as there was a bit too much of an uproar the other night, but, basically, the South East would remain in the low to mid 30Cs from Friday until next Wednesday. The general area of heat much further north and west. Just one run only (OK two if you count the UKMO!). Need more runs, even at this late stage.

Ec T2 maxes are above 32c from Friday through to next Wednesday (se U.K.) and thats with plenty of cape and precip around from Sunday onwards .... so max records probably not on the agenda but a sultry tropical spell v unusual for this country could well be - I guess, seeing as we can’t go to places like hong Kong at the moment, we can have their weather instead!

Flow off the North Sea relaxes and the heat spreads back northwest. It’s similar to what was being modelled by ECM the day before yesterday. None of the surprising low movement that GFs went with, which in further study is actually caused by a weak upper trough suddenly racing across to S England from west of Europe instead of remaining stalled there. The same process has been behind the other two runs in recent days that developed much more cloud and rain across S England. Something to be wary of but seems a bit of a long stretch that the upper low would move like that.