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The threads been a bit derailed this eve with a lack of analysis. For the hot weather to remain in situ over England on Sat the wave that has been highlighted for 2 days now would need to track through Scotland & SSW exiting Cornwall thus protecting a big swathe of England from the cooler uppers from the North. The GFS has been to progressive with the cool air & the UKMO has been the opposite. Usually the GFS moves to the UKMO however seen by the charts below which are the same day 24 hours apart (12z runs ) UKMO has corrected SE & the GFS has corrected NW both by about similar amounts so that we are beginning to converge on the 16c Line straddling the SE & the 8c line somewhere over the NW UKMO yesterday 120 first V todays 96 GFS yesterday 120 V todays 96 What we actually have is minimal corrections from day 5 down to 4 > A range of about 50- 75 miles is well within natural variability- & for once the models are perhaps beginning to meet in the middle halfway house. Sadly for some the correction SE from the UKMO swings the surface temps down by around 10c for some going from mid 30s to mid / high 20s. With that annoyance out of the way heat builds back from the SE but its not quite the major heat for records which for most is fine. Some models still hold back the wave to the North & still scope for it to move either way but higher probability would be a move NW not SE. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

Two main factors to watch in the 12z runs: How fast the upper trough lifts away northward Fri-Sat. The faster that is, the less cool air will circulate around the high, as it can reach across to Scandinavia sooner (UKMO fastest of 00z model runs). How much of a cyclonic circulation there is within the hot air to our south and how far west that is. Hot, rising air will inherently have a tendency to spin clockwise, but just how much and where that will be centred, the models seem to have a very hard time pinning down. Slight margins at play here and it's possible that the low could develop too much and push areas of rain up across England as soon as Sunday, though Monday or Tuesday currently looks more likely, if it happens to begin with. Of the 00z runs, UKMO was again the most optimal, followed by ECM and GFS which were pretty close to one another, GFS only being cooler than ECM because it was so slow to clear the upper trough away Fri-Sat. ICON 12z has now rolled out as far as Sunday as I type this. Ever so slightly faster to lift out the upper trough, and marginally further west with the heat low. Net impact on 850s is small, yet appreciable for those in the SE'rn third of England. Comparing to the 00z for Sunday, a more noteworthy shift hotter is evident, with higher 850s and the circulation around the high not as dominant over that around the heat low to the south: I've done this analysis to demonstrate just how fine the margins are with the weekend temperatures in the southern half of England. Those minuscule adjustments may mean several °C of difference to the maximums (detailed temp charts not uploaded yet). Also because from time to time, I enjoy delving in like this, for the heck of it .

Great post for comedy value.

It is not surprising there are variations in the synoptic models. The 500 mb charts cannot agree from day to day. If the atmosphere's pattern is uncertain at 500 mb then hardly surprising that the surface has issues in continuity. All 3 this morning go back to the charts showing blocking and troughing such that the heat MIGHT continue for more than 1-3 days? Fence sitting time for jh!

NONE of the models have verified yet for the weekend coming. NONE. No point in "calling" one of the models being "right" and "top". Saturday is 4 days away yet. Still time for things to change.

This threads gone to sh it this morning. All this GFS nonsence

However hot it gets, or doesn’t get, the ECM 12z operational is showing some lovely charts..so thankfully august is going to deliver what July clearly didn’t..at least until mid month!..plus even with so called downgrades the SE stays either very warm or hot..so it’s win / win for the SE!!!!!

GEFS ensembles are a big improvement tonight by the way - mean 15C 850 line is back to northern England by next Wednesday, and most runs bring the heat back progressively between Monday and Wednesday. Generally a slower removal of heat on Saturday, too.

Whoa Daddy, just look at the GEFS 6z mean..sensational isn’t it?

@Tamara we just come this thread with our own slightly different personal interests - some just for the love of all weather, some for the love of the extremes and what the limits are for weather in the UK. I do have a general love for weather, but also the extremes, and when there's a chance of seeing those extremes that part of me does take over, I confess On the general weather picture, well yes, a macroscale look at the charts suggests there should be a lot of decent above average weather in the next 10 days, but the op runs seem to be finding a lot of microscale features (cloud bands, showers) at the moment which are a bit like an uninvited guest to a party! Hopefully the macroscale will be proved more reliable, and we all get a Lisbon style week, whether warm or super hot

The model output looks nothing like that. I’m not seeing any change over the weekend from what was already expected. It remains very warm/hot in the south east before the heat becomes more widespread again into next week. Just the usual knee jerk reactions from people this morning.

Thursday is having a bit of a wobble on the models at the moment. Still would not rule out a 30C though - somewhere like East Malling, Kent for example. (Also Heathrow ect ect) Here is the current UKV’s take on it: Thursday 12:00 15:00: 18:00 Cloud could be an issue and some patchy rain about in places - might not even exist though when the day arrives! Still looks a lovely spell of late Summer weather for the SE - hot and plenty of sunshine. (Usual stuff) Warm and fairly sunny from Thursday to Sunday for the NW. Currently 15C up here and approaching 40mm of rainfall so far today...not forgetting those SSW gusts of 40 mph. Have a good night everyone!

I do see where you're coming from, but, unlike when chasing winter charts, we've got rather accustomed in recent years to plume events being continually upgraded nearer the time rather than downgraded, would you agree! I started posting ECM predicted temperatures last summer in the run up to the hottest day - I remember wondering if I really should post predictions of 38C or 39C on a D6 chart, wondering if it was too much hype, yet that's what the ECM was suggesting (with the adjusted raw), and it was bang on. Last week, it was miles *under* the eventual temperature - they all were - and the GFS was even more wrong. Do we just naturally remember disappointments more than successes? So whilst I realise the ECM's more outlandish charts of the past 48 hours were perhaps not the most likely final outcome (and there are still plenty of ensembles that go that way, so don't write it off!), I think it is worth posting what the chart says whatever, and then we can all look back and see if it was onto something.

Just two more on the ignore sheet Steve!

I've solved the mystery of which model the Met Office automated forecasts must be using... . Yeah, okay, it's not going to be JMA - but alongside the ICON 12z earlier this 12z does show that the option remains on the table (and is arguably a bigger vote than ICON). Briefly, I have to say, I'm shocked and disappointed with the UKMO 12z, not because of what conditions it would bring, but because it's a vast change from the previous run, from one end of the spectrum to the other! Major facepalm moment for that model, regardless of how accurate either of today's runs end up being.

ECM 12Z has 34C raw temps for Friday. That puts an actual max in the range of 36-38C

Still looking very much like a split, with the north not getting much apart from maybe Friday. The south, particularly in the SE will have what looks like a hot 5-7 days coming up. Arprge is back to 36c on Friday and it utterly nailed last Friday.

I have to say I’ve also been on this forum for years and if I’ve learnt anything from the models ( runs ) is that if the Ukmo doesn’t budge it needs to be taken extremely seriously and is likely to verify especially at short ranges and certainly over the GFS . I’ve seen it copious of times especially in winter when all other models especially the gfs have shown easterlies and the Ukmo doesn’t and the Ukmo comes out on top . nothing is certain but I know where my money is and it’s not GFS.

Morning all Latest UKV Friday 12:00 and 15:00 35C Saturday 12:00 and 15:00 35C Big change on Saturday with warmth/heat reduced further North - temperatures do seem rather low! Remember these are just predicted snapshots of certain times! 13:00 and 14:00 could show higher values. Met Office automated has a high of 23C in Manchester for example. Saturday 12:00 snapshot precipitation/cloud cover - hence the low figures above further North. As ever don’t take these charts too seriously at this range - will most certainly change between now and Friday. (Especially predicted precipitation!) Heathrow still on for 30C at the very least everyday (35C+ Friday/Saturday) from Thursday to Monday you would think from looking at the UKMO run this morning. Have a good day everyone!

Aperge is 37c ^^

Not using GFS as a start perhaps!

Stormy ⛈

I'm getting a bit confused here.. There seems to be far to many hindering on every operational run. I can't see how some can say we are left with a crappy Estly!! Plenty of places away from the Eastern side would see very decent conditions with that set up.. Central/Western areas more especially. Unless there is a conveyor belt of Atlantic Lows are about to rain down on us then I'm happy. Worth noting the final 3rd of the month still looks decent. No dramas from me.

I must be the only one here who likes the UKMO and the GFS! Both look potentially thundery and I'll take that any day.

Well, GEM looks good, here for T84, +20C isotherm in business for the SE: Carbon copy a few days later too, T174: This is still very much game on, I think.

Yes it was looking good on yesterday’s chart mate. Today for the 9th. I would describe that as pleasant! Roughly 20/21C max for Oldham and 19/20C up here!

The ECM ensembles for Saturday are still about 60% hot for central/eastern England, though this was about 80% last night. Normally I'd trust the op at such a short timescale, but given the sudden shift and the UKMO remaining hot, I'm inclined not to this time. The 12Z runs will surely nail Saturday - it's getting too close. Ensembles for Sunday - surprisingly, more hot ensembles than we've seen for a few days: 30 out of 51 ensembles would probably give a temperature above 30C in either southern or eastern England, and a small number still mid 30s. Perhaps fewer hot runs on Monday but, as with previous runs, an increasing number of runs bring the heat back in on Tuesday. A small cluster of members look like last night's op run, though an equal amount return to what I call "averagely warm". Finally, northern areas (i.e. north of Lancs/Yorkshire). Friday could see high 20s on the east side. Even here, uncertainty on Saturday. Generally low 20s at best - a few runs in mid 20s for certain areas, but depending on the set up this could either be north west or north east! Beyond this, high teens/low 20s Sunday/Monday, maybe mid 20s in favoured spots on either Tuesday or Wednesday (not on all ensembles), hotter runs than this are outliers.

It still looks flippin good too me!

Evening all.just catching up and what a stunning ECM run that was... and i had to view it in the NH gif mode,that lobe of low pressure splits off the parent one over southern Greenland where as the gfs doesn't and sends the trough through the UK instead and i think this is one of the keys to prolonging the heat in our locale also the gfs doesn't weigh up to what the latest cpc 500mb height anomaly's show for 6-10/8-14 days either with the heights sinking into central Europe where as the cpc doesn't and keeps the heights up to our NE near Scandinavia EPS/GEFS anomaly's show a similar outcome with regards to heights although the gefs slightly flatter and also the temps are lower on the gefs yes the gfs op is a slightly cool outlier within the pack but the ECM was a warm outlier too still lots to be resolved next week as regards in prolonging the heat but end of this week looks about nailed on now with just slight fluctuations in temps i would of thought a final note,if we do get a continental flow,look at these temps for Holland,it is plausible enjoy the rest of your evening

It's total pandemonium on the models right now for those of us in southern parts. If we follow all of the ensembles, we literally do not know if we'll get 25C or 35C on many individual days between this Saturday and next Wednesday!! I think it'll be a case of ticking days off one by one.

Rest of the Navgem

Interesting observation from the ECM for Friday. Yesterdays 12z, four days away Today T72 Quite a difference, yesterday the 16c isotherm was only just arriving, today’s run has this covering a fair portion of England. This has occurred across other models too and is likely going to raise the predicted maxima for Friday and make them more widespread.

GEM is decent since its upgrade last year. I reckon ECM will follow it tonight! Good time to post the verification stats, day 5: GEM just pipping GFS, although note the new GFS seems a little better.

I've done a few temperature predictions based upon ECM raw data, so, for balance, I thought I'd do one on GFS raw temps too - I'm not as confident as the amount of uplift on GFS temps seems less consistent to me, but this would be my best guess: Thursday 32C Friday 36C Saturday 34C in extreme SE (where there may not be many reporting stations!) Sunday 28C on S coast Monday 29C on S coast Tuesday 31C Generally a southern thing for hot temperatures after Friday, but still mid 20s in favoured midlands / other favoured spots throughout - not too bad, surely.

Lots of petulance and childish mood swings on here now. Hopefully peoples comments will improve in a while. The south, especially with an easterly will be very pleasant regardless.

Beautiful UKMO this evening... Doesn't get much better for August..

I would not disagree with your comments mushy, Noaa is usually closer to the 'average' chart in the 6-10 day period than GFS. It has, as you comment, also been the more consistent over the past few days. So yes I'd back the Noaa version if I fell off the fence! Its 8-14 keeps a similar pattern also.

Looking at the EC46 highlights the very warm/Hot conditions later this week, into next week we have High Pressure extending NE sitting just off scandinavia, could be a risk of some thundery Conditions devoloping towards the South at times, and I would say warm and humid could be a decent shout.. Further on we appear to be devoloping a N/S split with Azores ridging further south and pleasent conditions looking increasingly likely as we approach the final 3rd of the month.. Further North does look more changeable at times and cooler also.. So just a ruff summary from me thus evening... Happy Heat chasing folks.. And some absolutely brilliant posts from you guys today... Much more appealing than reading the Exeter 4 week updates..

Some of the nonsense on this thread is tiresome. Some of the culprits moaning want to have tried living up here in June and July then they would have something to moan about.

Don’t get hung up on the UKV charts - 03z and 15z run out to 120 hours. (Saturday is still a long time away and these runs will continue to change at this range) 03z this morning showed 35C for Saturday ...15z has 28C! That looks too low - let’s see what tomorrow says! (Other 6 runs only go out to 54 hours so once we get to Thursday that will give us a better idea with the hourly snapshots) With regards to Friday I would say 35C is nailed on now - famous last words. 36/37C not out the question on current output. Low risk of thunderstorms breaking out also. (As ever just for fun at this range!) UKV: ECM:

Well no point looking at next week when they cant even get Friday right.

The all important Navgem just beginning to trickle out . So far

I’ll eat my hat if we see that run of temps, even at Heathrow! Marco likes the heat and to ramp though

I’m not obsessed with heat, I don’t get much pleasure from sweating buckets like some do but anyway, looking at the Gfs 12z operational there’s certainly plenty of fine weather being shown but also a risk of thundery rain / showers from time to time..much better than the dross which dominated July so I’m a happy bunny!

The point is though a lot of people don't live in the south. For most people North of the South Midlands there is no significant warmth whatsoever only one warm day and then back to between 20-23 degrees which is pretty standard for the time of year. Also these weather types never benefit those up north as there tends to be a NW SE split. Sometimes out West we benefit more from easterlies as we are sheltered by the Pennines,Highlands and Snowdonia for example at the end of June 2018 West was best and all of the max temperatures were in locations like Hawarden,Rhyl,Lossiemouth and Aviemore. So personally I can understand why some people are pretty miffed as this summer has been naff so far so they want to get as much out of August as possible to make up for it. Anyway getting back on topic here is the GEM for Monday looks better than the UKMO imo bit more warmth lingering around but not brilliant either. Although should still be warm down south hopefully enough for some above average temps further north as well

A record-breaking ARPEGE - but of a different kind! UK record high minima broken on Friday night:

Im not doubting that the European and Uk models get it right, every model has its day. However, when it comes to the crunch in a scenario where small changes are crucial ones and dictate the direction of travel, GFS leads the way. I am not trolling and am not bringing this thread down. I love the input from those with the knowledge and their analysis however there is distinct appetite to ignore the realistic outcome and ramp up the prospects. I have been following the models and this forum since 2007 and see promising situations fall flat time and time again, with the euros being lauded and other models discounted. I am of an optimistic outlook with things but to go from a heatwave to one day of hot weather north of Banbury, takes the pee!

Still got 24 hours before the surface low exiting new foundland engages with the upper flow, and another 72 hours to see how far down in the Atlantic it digs, that will then give us an idea on how much amplification we will see. We could still end up with some form of cut off low yet. 96 hours is a long time and there will be further swings and roundabouts.

Top model? You are either sponsored by the GFS or have no idea what you are talking about. ECM always verifies as the best, followed by UKMO. GEM has even been better than the GFS for much of this year, which is now around 3rd or 4th best.

It’s ridiculous Steve - people who pop up with one post saying GFS is king. Trolling at its best! I wouldn’t even mind if it was true - there has been more of a convergence rather than other models moving towards the GFS. There is a huge scatter in the ensembles. I will remind people again that the GFS and ALL of its ensembles were wrong at T96 just a couple of months ago!