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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/08/20 in all areas
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A frustrating chase where I spent more time stuck in the car in either heavy rain or heavy traffic, but a few shots came out good! Daytime shot from Holme upon Spalding Moor, having been stuck for 45 minutes in roadworks before! Only had 5 minutes before it was on me! Night shots are from Grindale and Flamborough, East Yorkshire! I guess I could have stayed at home and probably nailed the shot over the south bay I've been trying to get for years but maybe next time!27 points
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Yet another model first. A mean 1PM London temperature over 30C at D7!!! From a model that was 5C below the maximum yesterday!19 points
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So just for fun, here's what the ECM would mean for maximums if one adds the usual 2-3C : Thursday 31-32 Friday 35-36 Saturday 36-37 Sunday 39-40 Monday 37-38 Tuesday 36-3716 points
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Almost every single ECM ensemble has the 18C upper line over some part of the UK next Saturday. That's a really strong signal for a hot day.15 points
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Evening guys that was a good storm earlier and overhead at one point as you will see from the short clip i post in a bit but firstly before i get to that there was some instability in the air a good hour before the storm arrived i don't know what sort of cloud these was but they where the type that you don't see every day,they looked like daytime nocturnal clouds with the ripply effect then some ac-cas type clouds bubbling up to my SW then right on queue the storm was visible to my south and as it got closer i managed to capture one Cg from all of this storm as most of it was elevated then this last shot of the storm to my east as i moved to the front door facing east there was two close strikes at the back(west sods law) and i missed them thinking the storm had moved to the front of the house(east) silly me forgot to format the cam from storm chasing a couple of months back and while i was filming the memory was full,i was gutted as the storm was growing and becoming intense with none stop lightning and constant thunder never mind,here is a short clip of the shotgun thunder and it was instantaneous after the lightning strike but miss it because it was out the back garden and i was filming from the front Loud thunder.mp4 Loud thunder.mp4 next dose hopefully next weekend15 points
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Don't know mushy, was not watching things too closely but the Max values for several places were quite well predicted close in by the models I thought. Just prior to the storms reaching here it was almost what we used to call 'day darkness', very eerie a sort of blackish-greeny colour to everything, and I only got 1.4 mm, the storm(s) looking at the radar late last night when I got back appeared to split either side of my post code. I don't fancy another repeat of the humidity and temperature for next weekend so for once hope the models are way out!. The anomaly charts suggest a sort of rinse and repeat of Atlantic and heat. It amuses me when folk, only a week or so ago, were talking of the end of summer. Just for info the latest 500 mb anomaly charts http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV14 points
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The ECM would be a furnace for the SE of the UK- Mega hot conditions & occasional thunderstorms Bring on the 20C CET @DAVID SNOW13 points
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Hmm - with the continued adjustments by GFS toward a stronger Scandinavian high and the consistency of UKMO between runs, while ECM has been along similar lines, it seems we may well see the legendary 'flaming easterly' setup that we've not seen much in August this past decade. It's appeared a few times in June and July but August has tended to be a bit obsessed with westerlies. Applying typical bias, the GFS 12z is in high-end heatwave territory for England, with several days in a row widely hitting the mid-30s. Not sure how I feel about that to be honest!13 points
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UKMO almost identical to this morning. A really hot looking chart.11 points
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I really hope not! Yesterday was too hot for me, along with the warm breeze which made it feel even worse.. I felt tired and sluggish and was sweating like a nun in a field of cucumbers Just nice warm weather, please11 points
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Mad outputs once again this morning. Starting to look tantalisingly like 2003 all over again! If we manage to have the 20c isotherm hovering over us for a couple of days, we may challenge the record big time. Get your popcorn ready folks, gonna be an interesting week!11 points
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Nothing personal but I sincerely hope those values are too high, one day was bad enough without days on end-yuk10 points
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I'll just leave these here. After one of the hottest GFS runs I can recall seeing, which when accounting for bias would deliver 9 or 10 days widely into the 30s for England and often more than only just, the ECM 12z has taken a less stable but more intense route. Phenomenal charts at hand but we must keep our heads - we're only just able to have some confidence in the opening stages taking place Thu-Fri, now that GFS has caught most of the way up with respect to the UK-Scandinavian high build.10 points
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10 points
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Clusters this morning. T168 - can't really get more agreement on a plume that this - all clusters almost straight lines from the south or SSW By T240, some weaknesses in the ridge incoming from the west but with the block to the east still there, a good chance the heat may persist even this long. With a lot of moving parts in the pattern and the main ridge some way east of the UK, it will be hard to achieve a 1995 style long term heatwave, but it could happen if the Azores High ridges back in around D10 (like cluster 4) - sometimes the models are slow to pick this until D7/D8 - or if the Scandi High proves very resilient. Summing up: getting more and more likely that Thursday to Saturday will be increasingly hot. If it breaks down earlier than Sunday (D8) that would be slightly earlier than might be expected, and if the heat extends beyond D10 then that's probably a bit longer than might be expected.10 points
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This morning's GFS 00Z is nae too bad, and would be even better were I not too lazy to cherry-pick! Interesting set of GEFS ens: does anyone-else suspect that the GFS op might be a tad over-sensitive to minor perturbations; oscillating as it does, between a warm and a cold almost-an-outlier? NH profiles: Anyway... who's complaining!10 points
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ECM raw data has 32c next Friday, and overnight lows of 22-23c into Saturday morning. Could be up there with all time warm nights if that comes off. It’s then followed by temps of 34c on Saturday. Scorchio!10 points
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Few captures from yesterday’s chase (31st July 2020) between two counties Nottinghamshire & Lincolnshire. Day started off setting off from Plymouth (Hometown) potentially heading into Kent for developments pushing up from France but my gut told me to hang off with an opportunity in pushing North. Hanged About in Cambridgeshire which looked to be a good half way point to both ends but given convection was starting to fire up towers I made the crucial call and go with what I thought best pushing north into Leicestershire when we was welcomed by storms firing up all around. Ended with an amazing sunset!! May think I’m nuts coming all that way but I love roadtripping and so do my two sons. Going to suffer in work tonight I’m nackered.9 points
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Here's the crazy chart for next Sunday. Hotter than any chart in the run up to last year's hottest day ever. Would deliver a 40C, very likely. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/max-temperature-6h/20200809-1800z.html However it's also noteworthy that next Friday, at just D6, we already have a chart that is just as hot as the charts the ECM put out for yesterday.9 points
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This is one of the hottest op runs I’ve ever seen. It’s like one of those extreme ensemble members that @JON SNOW loves to post!9 points
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Just goes to show how much warmer our heatwaves/spikes have gotten, over the years... in 1975, 28C was 'hot', 31C was 'very hot'... and 1976's record of 36C (recorded on only one day!) was exceptional?9 points
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Goodness me EC takes the UK into the furnace ... Mid 30s for the south looks likely,again..8 points
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Got some nice hay made today after missing most of the showers last night.A bit of a breeze with some sunshine in the morning but less sun in the afternoon. A high of 18c today. Nice low humidities though so hay dried out well. Neeps doing well after the heat of yesterday. Icecream and cherry sauce for tea MMMMMMM!8 points
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Wow, that ECM run would bring some serious heat into the UK and next weekend we'd probably be seeing similar temperatures to yesterday! Looking at the mean, the 850's are looking mighty impressive for Friday - Sunday. If this ECM run pans out, I'd say the all time high temperature *could* be under threat. That said, this mornings GFS goes a different route so nothing is nailed down yet.8 points
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7 points
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Sorry for the late report but I did a storm chase yesterday. I didn't expect to chase so wasn't at all prepared. I was convinced it would be only the far east that had a chance and so when I heard a distant rumble i went straight to my netweather radar to see a storm bearing down on Belper. I headed out but the storm was moving very quickly and so ended up watching it briefly before chasing it up the M1 all the way into Yorkshire. There was a lot of rain for pretty much the entire journey with some torrential downpours. Lightning was feint and so only slightly visible, clearly very elevated. It became more spectacular by the time I reached the M18/A1 junction near to Doncaster where I saw a few nice IC's and a couple of CG's. I was not catching the storm up though and I was under too much precipitation to get out. I was rain f****d. So I decided to stop chasing and reassess my options. I decided to head east in order to intercept a storm moving north through Lincoln. My target was somewhere around Brigg near the Humber. As I was driving east on the M180 a storm broke out right in front of me near to Scun-thorpe. This storm produced some spectacular lightning, but I was stuck in the car on the motorway. By the time I could come off the storm was heading over the Humber. The storm near Lincoln died out before reaching me, and all the activity was now heading north through North Yorkshire and north of here. All in all not a bad day considering I didn't expect anything. I saw some impressive lightning but nowadays I like to get out the car and film/observe. Not a patch on the storms in June but a nice end to the brief hot spell. The video will be up some time tomorrow.7 points
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Looking at the 850s, probably mid/high twenties in the north, low thirties in the south. You would probably struggle to find a single cloud anywhere in the U.K. Then there is the really intense heat to the south, which will be going only one way. The GFS comparison is kind of funny as such subtle difference seen to change the Atlantic profile from having a sharp trough on the UKMO to... No trough at all virtually, yet the conditions over the U.K. and indeed Europe would be close to the same. Given the UKMO, it would be interesting to see a ten day model follow this path, just to see how extreme the later charts get.7 points
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Afternoon all, I had a great day on the hills yesterday tackling a couple of Munros from Spittal of Glenshee. A few other walkers out but nice and quiet overall. A few photos below. It was pleasantly warm, even at 1,000m. Back to the weather grind today. Mostly cloudy and breezy with temperatures around average.7 points
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Wow im surprised you have not ramped this chart up any further!!that looks absolutely STUNNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?7 points
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It's fair enough to want a bit longer to be convinced - D6/D7 is on the very edge of the reliable, and in winter we sometimes see cold spells go belly up at D4. But I'm just impressed at the consistency of the plume for Friday and Saturday across all runs, op and ens. I think the threshold has been reached to make a calculated prediction, and I don't think we're far off the point of no return for at least forecasting an incursion into the 90Fs, maybe another 24 hours to be sure. Plumes have an element of uncertainty but nothing like in winter when the outcome rests upon northern blocking, which the models are next to hopeless at forecasting7 points
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BBC have updated for London back to 34 next Saturday, hoping we get at least a 4 day heatwave as current output, hoping this doesn’t get watered down to a one day event and hoping peak heat is at the weekend so can enjoy it7 points
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7 points
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GFS 06Z at T+192: loads for heat around; and, for those of us in the Triangle & Cone (a good pub name?) plenty more storms to miss!7 points
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Quite unusual to see such high maxes progged 6 days away on the automatic apps. As you say, these are normally upgraded as the day gets closer.7 points
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Met Office raw data with a high of 33’C for Heathrow on Friday. Bearing in mind that the temperature projection often increases as we get nearer the time. As was the case for yesterday.7 points
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Today was horrid. Walked out for work at about 3pm and it had clouded over and was as humid as I can ever recall. Thankfully we will soon be out of peak summer, the sun losing intensity all the time now. In a few weeks time it will feel quite tame compared to how it would at the end of June.7 points