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ECM clusters appear fairly united on how they expect next weekend to pan out. First, that move on heights up through Europe just to our east on D8, which is highly likely to drag hot air with it (in spite of what the GFS 06Z wants). I've checked the ensemble summary here: https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro, and next Saturday, 90% of runs have a raw 1pm temperature of between 24C and 32C, and yes, in my experience you can also add that 2-3C to these raw temperatures to get to the actual localised maximum, so this suggests 90% of runs would produce between 26C and 35C, not even at the hottest part of the day. By D10, signs that this may consolidate as a "Sceuro" High, which would maintain a continental flow (cluster 3 the only real dissenter). Should stay hot. By D12/D13, signs that the block to the east may start to break but various options of what happens next, from breakdown to a fresh injection of heat from the south - too far out to be particularly specific, of course. Main headline for next weekend, then - Expect a heatwave, probably of the low 30Cs type, small chance of the high 30Cs type

37.8c (100F) at Heathrow. This means that even the ARPEGE has underestimated the temps. Holy bejesus.

Hey Man With Beard, you’re good, you’re really good...and the ECM 0z ens mean backs you up.. great job..for those who thought summer 2020 was over and out..it isn’t, far from it..hats off to Tamara too !

In the longer term after the excitement of today and what might the maximum temperature be, then the anomaly charts are showing a concensus for a more S of West flow into the UK, heights tending to rise ESE-NW of or even over the UK with the marked trough edging west and elongating. See below. Not a done deal yet but reasonable agreement between the three and EC has been the leader of this pattern change. The 8-14 NOAA also keeps this idea going. Another 24-48 hours showing similar charts and the change would be about 75% likely by next weekend IF this pattern is kept by all three. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Exeter have been way behind the pace this summer. It took them ages to drop their “warm and settled” second half of July forecast when practically all other modelling (including their own) were against it.

Hi folks, it seems I've missed alot these last couple of days.. My dad has Parkinsons and had a bad fall the other day.. And it's resulted in him being admitted to Hospital.. Good news is he's on the mend, and I'm hoping to have him back very shortly.. Talk about stress.. My heart goes out to any of you guys who have various disabilities to contend with. A quick update on last night's EC46.. not had time to cover it in great detail yet.. As we all know a little more unsettled through next week, but the 46 is saying a renewed build of heights by later next week, and this holding firm through next Weekend and into the following week... Temperatures also becoming warmer again... I have a feeling August this time around could be shaping up to be much better than our recent affairs.. A very good day to you and take care in this heat if you have it to the extreme..

I think in all honesty the GFS is on board. The 00z had solid high pressure over the UK for several days from Friday onwards, and likely temperatures of 30C in the SE and mid 20s for a lot of areas - pretty typical UK heatwave conditions - added to that, it was almost a cold outlier within its ensembles! Not saying this to you, but saying this as a general point - The regularity of the uppers 20C line reaching the UK perhaps has altered expectations of what a heatwave looks like - it used to be the case that the 20C line would only clip the UK once every 10 years. Now a summer doesn't feel complete unless it happens. But a good old-fashioned UK heatwave involves uppers more Iike 12-16C uppers, and the occasional 32C at surface level. This kind of heatwave looks a strong favorite for next weekend - maybe a little hotter if the pattern sets up right - but a couple more runs to get through yet to make sure the Atlantic has not been underestimated around D6.

The ECM this morning looks like a good set up for a longer heatwave than the current heat "snap" - plenty of support from the GEFS again.

Looks like a more prolonged hot spell starting Thurs next week... Top temps today unofficially +38.2c not far off the record...

UKV chart for 15:00 (Saved this from the 09Z run this morning) 37C for today. It started off earlier in the week with a high of 32C! Then gradually increased the maximum each day with 36C showing yesterday lunchtime. (Posted in here) Great stuff from everyone in here this last ten days or so - really enjoyed the build up to this plume! We have got the wonderful high temperature...bring on the spectacular thunderstorms now! (Keep an eye on the sky - who knows what will pop up!) Have a good weekend everyone!

The GFS 0z was a huge cool outlier. The ensembles show the average 850s above 15c again from next Friday for a number of days. Some members even get close to 20c again. The mean for next Saturday is 17c widely throughout the UK. I would suggest the GFS is entirely onboard

If you are looking for heat but without the humidity then the GEM serves uo the perfect shaped High with a nice ESE curvature dry heat can feed in from Europe a la 76.

The EC mean is absolutely stunning... Extended heatwave territory..

The 6Z means looks pretty promising for this time next week again.. Anybody ready for plume 3!! Just noticed the Exeter update is going for very warm even Hot conditions for the end of next week also... Just like a bus.. Ya wait for ages then 2 or 3 come at the same time..

I think the focus should be on today....El Scorchio!?️

I think it's worth comparing this temperature with model predicted temperatures, as it will help for understanding the range of temperatures possible from a model estimated temperature in the future GFS: 31C (until this morning, when it upped to 32C) = 6/7 degrees too low ECM: 33C = 5 degrees too low ARGEPE 36/37C depending on the run = close enough, maybe 1 degree too low? AROME 36/37C = close enough, maybe 1 degree too low?

36c now official at Kew Gardens..those high res models such as Aperge where not far off after all! Could 37/38c be achieved? Could the Cap be broken after all?

Just about to hit here

Bizzare line of cloud here in South East London, the grey ones are completely separate from the white towers going up.

Astonishing, in your face Gfs..not even close!!!..I feel a Roy Castle (god rest his soul) record breaker 31st July..for anyone old enough to remember record breakers!!!

34.4c at Heathrow..... the hottest July 31st on record, beating the old record of 33.4c set in 1943.

In the gambling business, they often say there’s nothing sweeter than a repeater....well next Friday/weekend looks like we’re getting furnace heat once again!

I think the previous 100F (prior to 2003) was way back in 1911? Anywho, today's GFS 00Z is something of a goodie -- two or three weeks' fine weather might, at last, be on the cards: And, there's one mighty fine stonker in those ens... @JON SNOW; and the GFS 00Z, 2m, op is a cold outlier! And now for the farm... Holy moly guacamole! Enjoy your day, folks!

Not quite as impressive but I feel the need to jump in! Thankyou to the person on Facebook for this picture

Nothing here apart from some cumulusdisappointus.

Starting to look like it’ll turn hot or very hot again by Friday next week! Probably not as extreme as what we’ve just seen, but a few more days into the low 30s could be on the cards. Could we finally be getting a decent August?

My first post here, been meaning to sign up for a while. It got to 33.1 a short while ago in North London but has fallen to 32 now

Amazing Zak.. There's climate change for you.. Many years ago you may have needed a run of warm days to end up with this kind of temperature.. These days it appears we can nudge 100F in the space of 48Hours..pretty worrying when you think hard about it.. But it is what it is unfortunately

Accas streaming in from the south west here

I know not everyone is a fan of heat so this chart is for you , Cool and wet also Windy .

Here's the video with the rumble of Thunder a few seconds later

Amazing red sky here currently... Best ive ever seen-

I think it's meaningful that the ECM 12z still set up a very warm to quite hot easterly regime, considering it really bombed the main Atlantic low at +144 hours. UKMO is similar to GEM in avoiding that outcome, better for building a strong high with an orientation that moves very warm or hot air across the UK from the SE. GFS seems to be having its usual difficulties resolving the initiation stages of a Scandinavian high. I say seems, because the remnants of Isaias get involved with that Atlantic trough, which raises uncertainty beyond what the models may suggest at face value. We can't be sure that it will have the amplifying effect that brings about the large anticyclonic wave break UK-Scandinavia.

Okay current situation, I'm at Doncaster North Services on the M18, horrendous driving conditions but an absolute barrage of lighting all around me!

We might not have storms down here but at least we are allowed outside

Woohoo Midlands again What a dreadful year for the SE

Interesting satellite pic, can clearly see the cold front out W but also ahead of it, the trough, running down from the Midlands, CS England in into N France past Paris. Might be something thundery popping up along that trough, more likely across E England/E Anglia, imho

Huh? What’s the rationale/evidence behind this?

Met office now put a warning out for thunderstorms this afternoon across the south East...

The ECM 0z ensemble mean is gob smacklingly amazing, not just for today!..holy cow!...could squeeze 36c 97f in the SE today..summer fights back!!

A much better overnight from the ECMWF, with the Atlantic held at bay.

GEFs this morning The operational whilst settled, again doesn't bring the heat north as it is messier with the Atlantic trough, however the general ensembles are in line with the GEM op, and possibly the UKMO at day 6 shown below. The GEM yet again delivers a set up where the mid-thirties will be reached by next weekend. As for today, Arpege still going for a high of 36C, which is possible anywhere from London northwards into the East Midlands. North Kent I would also put a punt on for high temperatures due to a lack of sea track and tapping the heat directly from France. Also it appears that any cloud and showers will arrive late afternoon at the earliest now.

It’s the reflection of a tropical storm in Hawaii off of Zak’s window

Multiple Towers to my west are gaining more strength by the minute

Clear sky couple of hours ago but now looks like this

I seriously hope you're joking...

On the flip side though, 2018 was a prolonged scorcher and broke no temperature records.

Peak 850s for today; 21c with the 20c across most of the south east/East Anglia. Interestingly this plume event has pretty much upgraded itself all the way up until today. Today will likely mark the moment where 35c has been reached/surpassed for the third year in a row.

Would be remarkable to record 38C (100f) two years on the trot, especially after 17 years since 10th August 2003. However, it wouldn't surprise me if somewhere hits that temperature tomorrow.