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re the 500 mb anomaly charts Not getting at anyone but there do seem some misconceptions as to what some of the numbers/lines actually mean. The are obviously at 500 mb, roughly equivalent to 18,000 ft. However the lower the number and the lower the actual height from the ground to 500 mb will be. The converse is true. These charts do not show the jet stream and it is not shown by any particular height, a mention was made not long ago about 564 DM. As at the surface when the isobars there are close together this shows an area of stronger winds. At height, for example 500 mb the closer the contour line are then the stronger the wind flow at that height. A contour line like an isobar is a line of constant pressure. Some, understandably get confused about the dashed lines seen on the anomaly charts. These are shown as red when they are +ve in relation to the average height for that part on the chart and blue when they are negative compared to average. In my view it is best not to take much notice of these until you have had a lot of experience in using these anomaly charts. Concentrate on the contour lines. These will give you an idea of where the air has originated from, thus how cold or warm it may be. The track they have taken to reach the UK will also give a good idea of the type of weather to expect. There are lots of non technical books about that may help you to understand more fully the differing airmasses the UK can be affected by. An understanding of those will also help in trying to predict out changeable weather. Hope this helps some of you. Please pm me if you want any further help. I can't guarantee to be able to answer you but I'll do my best John

ECM gives us a full house at 144. Bring on the sun!

And the current run of severe winters, we're all enjoying so much?

And the last frame, @240 So, that's it then, the 12z ECM is done for the evening. Certainly trending towards something more positive and we could have hope for July/late July after all. Though, it was funny to see some of the posts yesterday evening regarding the ECM op and some people writing off the rest of July for what it was showing, and now look. Just shows how much it can change in the blink of an eye!

Will the real ECM please stand up? Last night's T168 vs this morning's T144

Heat building nicely at 216... 14c uppers over the extreme south east. Be different again in the morning, but the trend is finally going in the right direction.

12z ECM @144 Bank!

Think we are good to go with the ECM tonight, here compared to UKMO at T120: Not exactly the same as you’d expect, and maybe UKMO better long term slightly.

For sure there are some encouraging signs on the 12z output so far..hope the ECM carries on from its 0z output!...in the meantime, nice weekend coming up for most as high pressure builds in..that’s me done for the day..hopefully back again tomoz some time!

First out of the blocks is Icon and its starting to look good beyond mid week..

You know what, there is some crud on the models longer term for sure but there is also some summery potential!.. and my glass is always half full rather than half empty!!!!!!!!! so who knows..perhaps July will deliver some weather to remember..for the right reasons!!!!..ps..God Bless Dame Vera Lynn..R.I.P.!!

Its been pretty consistent this Summer though Mike.. And tbh all the met office models were singing from the same hym sheet that year. It will certainly give a better reflection than GFS ever will.. And I think tonight's 12z run sums it up pretty well.. I think its looking good now till the backend of the month... It may change then, but it's a long way off and to far out to be certain.

EC looking good..

Oh How the Mighty Navgem has fallen , Tonight I’m giving it the boot but just for this run .

Good 12z output so far, nice up to T144, and pretty much go on with the settled outlook from there, GEM great T240, some real heat on offer for the south there, lets see what the ECM has to say, I’m optimistic, for the first time in a couple of weeks...

Take a look at the 12z JMA... @228

ECM generous, but not a total outlier. Better prospects tonight for sure.

ECM is great out to day 10. Are we going to get stiffed again this summer, or is this finally a decent little settled warm spell coming up? ??

Could get another reload of heat! @192

100% agree, I said last night it would be a major suprise if it was that far wrong at day 6...but kudos to the EC46 for not backing the ECM op or mean and going with UKMO.. I really hope the 46 continues this kind of form into the coming Winter.. But for me it's UKMO leading the way, and I'm starting to pay more attention the EC weeklies than I am the operationals and means. And judging by them last night I'm hopeful tonight's 12z will be looking rosey beyond next mid week.. But UKMO you rock.

After 2018-19, I think I'll just forget it -- UKMO on-board or not!?

Just to sum up last night's EC weeklies, no real sign of that major interruption that was showing up on the GFS and ECM op next week. Largely settled next week, the best in the South. Moving towards the final 3rd of the month still highlights the best conditions towards the South and less so further North... Worth noting the flow appears to be Mianly of a Wstly source with temperatures mainly hovering around average. Still the same ebb and flow of this Azores ridge and no current signs of a strong build in a favourable area. Currently August is looking a tad more unsettled in the first part of the month as the ridge pulls back W/SW.. The precipitation totals are becoming quite high in W/NW Locations at this point, and again a similar flow of W/NW at times meaning temperatures are never becoming very high.. Warm at times further SE, more like avarage at best further North.. Its been sticking with this signal for the last couple of weeks.. So let's just see how it goes.. Its not bad at times but I'm not seeing lenghty heatwave conditions also. Enjoy your days..

Good morning, folks, today's GFS 00Z isn't looking too bad; there's even a faint sniff of some real warmth... As we approach Day 16! But, judging by the 18Z ens, tropical storms might soon be making trouble: Could the aforementioned tropical storms, in the central North Atlantic be what's causing those positive height anomalies near Greenland -- that I can't actually see

Hopefully, I would say the SE is looking a shoe in for a decent spell of weather now. Hopefully the drier weather will extend as far north as possible,still to be determined how far north... From a IMBY point of view I suspect Manchester area will suffer cloud cover next week,the westerly element to the winds is a cloud magnet for us... Kent etc will probably be 25 or 26 ,very nice.

192 and it's looking very positive! A good FI brewing here..... even our Irish contingent should be enjoying this run!

Great output this evening. And I’m looking at brIght skies outside as we speak rather than the miserable grey of recent days.

Oohhhh Gem you little Rascal .

GFS is an absolute beauty for the south! @216 and @246

Oi oi, what have we 'ere then, GFS at T+243... 18C uppers? Only a few hours' sunshine required

All the models so far out show an improvement on yesterday’s 12z and even the UMKO has improved on yesterday run . I’m glad for once that the UKMO has triumphed to a certain degree ( I know it hasn’t happened yet ) . It’s normally the heart breaker in winter but perhaps our saviour on this occasion . GFS, Icon and UKMO

To the north-west around 20 minutes ago. Not much thunder on it yet though.

Doing some cherry picking today, and look at this! 36c in the SE?!

Last day in Glencoe today, has been a fab little trip. Loads of walks and kids bagged their 7th Munro Buachaille Etive Beag Stob Dubh (they did Stob Coire Raineach a few years ago). I'm still sore today. Weather's been mixed and hardly seen a midge.

ECM and GFS have moved towards UKMO and GEM rather than vice versa. Who knew?

The opposite of last nights run. Helpful!

Ah yes - the same solar minimum must have been responsible for the amazing April and May we just had!

So much better across the models tonight after ECM's vomit inducing 12z from last night. At 144 we're looking good UKMO / GFS / ECM Good consistency now, lord alone knows what happened to yesterday's ECM. I note the 'Parallel' is no longer available to view, I assume that's now become the Control run? Holding firm at 168... with more to come maybe!?

I'm liking this... @168

Increasing agreement on a deepening area of low pressure, which will become slow-moving close to Iceland. This should offer at least a reasonable pattern towards the U.K. with the Azores high extending towards us from time to time, potentially becoming displaced over Central Europe and allowing a very warm continental feed to move up from the south.

Looking good after a blip around Tuesday. UKMO looks lovely again Thursday.

"Horrific"? Yes it's not the most pleasant but come on, "horrific"? It's a very usable day out there around these parts, and much of the next week is looking decent too. I swear some folks spend so much time complaining how crap the weather is that they don't go out when it's actually nice! The last week or so have been crap, yeah, but let's not be so melodramatic.

As you guys know by now, I just lurve cherry picking..0z..who cares! Nice one Zak

Cool fresh start to the day after overnight showers,Currently 15c Still some fair patches of snow on Ben Wyvis. As much as I have seen approaching mid July in a number of years. If they are still there in August they may make it to lasting snow in the late autumn.

It's not really surprising the 2x and 4x daily outputs are so variable. The usually fairly consistent 500 mb anomaly charts are not their usual consistent selves. If the models are having difficulty at 500 mb with mean charts then no wonder the synoptic models are varying so much.

Got woken up by Torriental rain at 3 o’clock this morning. Only the Met Office had predicted heavy rain 3 and 4am and it was spot on (others said dry). Heaviest rain I’ve had here this summer. Looking at the radar it gained intensity heading south over the Campsies and over Glasgow and Lanarkshire.

Barn storming ECM run - 850s up to 16/17c by day 10....:but so different to last nights 12z it’s crazy. I’m expecting a bit hot outlier when the ensembles appear, as much as I’d love it to be correct!

Tonight could be very good viewing for many parts. Jupiter, Saturn, Mars and Venus as well possible noctilucent clouds besides the comet are also on view in the early hours.

Seen the comet, it was more obvious than I was expecting. Lovely object.