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This was the late evening storm as it passed over Filey. It was nice enough as it come up from Bridlington, but as it approached the coast, a real nice feeder band developed into it and it really ramped up. This shot is as it started to fall apart a bit but was one of the few CG's I saw from the South. I suspect more were coming down from the anvil behind the rain core. Copious amount of leaves on the roads between Muston and Filey. Suspect considerable hail and/or strong winds.

Few images from Friday easily hours in Newhaven between Brighton & Eastbourne. Worth the travels just to get a storm fix.

As much as @Alderc can be a bit "glass half empty", I think it's unfair to call him a troll. He does look at the charts, but maybe this time he's been excessively negative without looking at the bigger picture. @Tamara was quite right to question his post, and produce some counter analysis. Hardly belittling though - have we really become that sensitive? I don't see why his post would need to reported - doesn't seem to break any rules. Just a bit of an over-reaction to some fairly average model output. Back on topic, I can see some positive signs going forward that we may get back to some summery weather in 8-10 days, which is backed up by some of the other signals. Bring it on!

Mate I've not insulted your intelligence one bit. I'm just pointing out there are signs of an improvement on the mean, the ECMWF shows this as does a fair few clusters, and mush pointed out that the NOAA charts also detail this. Not having a dig at you, your entitled to your opinion, and you probably know more than me anyway.. So it's pretty pointless me trying to bring anyone down. Enjoy your weekend.

I'm sorry mate... November!! 15-21c regarding temps from the Midlands South, yes it's disappointing, but as November really become that warm!! You say no sign of anything settled in a 10 day period so obviously you haven't viewed the means or you refuse to be influenced by them. It looks to be improving by the end of next Weekend or very shortly afterwards.

Maybe not next weekend, but the trend going forward into the following week is still good:

OK here we go before i start posting my pics,my partner just said to me that the storm we had here earlier whilst i was chasing that the hail was the size of a two pound coin and she didn't get any pics anyway on to my pics:- this first pic is of a storm that where just starting to get going to my south,i was parked at Marr west of Doncaster the storms where moving pretty quick so we(me and my daughter) got on the A1 north to get ahead of them,this pic was a developing Cb to the NE courtesy of my daughter whilst we was traveling now things where getting interesting now that we parked in Driffield facing south,the first pic is of a Meso just to the east of a storm that has just started,there was some slight rotation on it,the second pic was at the back end of the storm and we could see more Cb's/inflow feeding the storm,we had to move further north so we headed NW towards Malton still tracking this storm and parked up on a nice tranquil country lane just SE of Malton,i was watching this closely as there was still rotation on this storm,the Cb's was rotating anti-clockwise it was unreal and finally on the second pic there is a white rope(you have to zoom in) further up the road my daughter said pull over and i said why!,she said look at that tower and i thought that she was on about a Cb shooting up but it was a building,i had different towers in mind,there was another storm developing between York and Pocklington and boy this was photogenic,the base on this thing was rotating like a washing machine and i thought that it was going to give me another funnel but it didn't sadly,the last pic was at it's most spectacular and i have a vid on this and will post it when i get round to it some random pics while we where heading back home sunbeam we parked up near Market Weighton for a snack at McDonald's and here we saw some lovely Mammartus clouds to our north and i spotted a pileus cloud to my east then spread out 2 minutes later finally a sunset from Goole bridge on the move. the only Cg's we saw today(two of them) was when we parked up in a little village lane viewing a storm towards Bridlington but i will go through the video footage when i can now i am going to trawl through this thread from early this afternoon same again tomorrow? take care cheers.

Clusters tonight for D11-D15 tonight, not bad at all especially on cluster 2 but also cluster 1 even weak positive anomalies in July should equate to decent chance of it being mainly settled.

Still keen on a week 2 build of heights from the south west. Varying from NW/SE split to a full blown U.K. high forming on the ECM by day 10. A solid lump of warmth in the Atlantic too that could help raise temperatures if the Atlantic feed is cut off (Which a U.K. high would achieve). The green shoots have grown a little higher this evening.

UKMO at T144: I thought some were calling a two week nightmare, with persistent lows over the country? Not according to UKMO at day 6!

More thunder here. Still need to sort out yesterday's vids from camera but here are the ones from my phone And the main vid see my channel for the other vids

Looking at the ECM 0z ensemble mean, I think we can all see some improvement as time goes on!! It was my art teacher at school, a lover of everything meteorological who got me hooked on the weather..so thanks to him I’m posting now..god bless you Mr Kendall!!

yep.... noaa charts are slowly shifting towards that too for the 8-14 day period.

A hot (29°C), sunny but very blowy day here in Prague is now giving way to some very impressive cumulonimbus clouds building and approaching from the W. Hoping for a light show later

Bit lively in here for a Saturday morning! Shall we get back to the weather? The day 10 ECM ensembles all show the Azores high building in/trying to build in some form. Weak positive anomalies after this, but I think the ‘door needs to be opened’ before we see what’s on the other side. Patience folks. This week looks a bit duff for summer - most if not all summers have weather of this type, so we just have to ride it out and wait for the potential change through next weekend.

To me and thee, yes... But, to the Prophets of Doom (henceforth to be known as The Pod People) winter's only just around the corner!

This image was taken just after 11pm and I didn't expect to see anything that good. I need to scout out another location during the daytime though

Definitely liking the sound of this. Brilliant news for all storm fans.

Fancy posting again?

Afternoon all! ICON 12z showing the Azores ridge on its way at the end of the run, T168, T180: Before the rest of the 12z, a look at the SSTs, current picture, compared with a week ago: You can see how the hot spell has sharpened this up considerably, not just the hot anomaly near the UK, but also the cold anomaly out west (trough magnet, other signals being conducive). So how does it compare with the end of the previous hot spell , here 1 June: E of the UK it is warmer now, but colder waters are closer to the SW. I wonder if this is suggesting that any Azores ridge in the week after next may benefit mainly the midlands south, with the jet stream still bringing low pressures to the northwest.

Funny how different people can perceive things differently. I wouldn't classify this June as poor when I remember back to some Junes we've experienced. When I was growing up in the 80s we had some horrific Junes Granted it's not been a classic. Just a pretty average month really. Not sure what the CET or precipitation figures are showing but I'd be amazed if they're not within the 'average' envelope On to July and projections are for a poor start to that month. But, again, signals that week 2 will see us move back into summer Over-reaction to a signal? Maybe but let's hope it's on the nose and that the above chart typifies what we will end up seeing throughout July and August.

Well, whatever misery the next few days' weather holds, by T+222 things should be getting a little better? GFS 06Z:

On to the models - unsettled this week, probably lasting into the weekend and then signs of summer returning 8 or 9 days from now. Even this poor-looking (on the face of it) chart from ECM you can easily imagine that little bump of high pressure in the Atlantic visiting our shores to settle things down

A very mixed bag of possibilities in today's GFS 00Z: GEFS ens very supportive of a warm-up following a short much-cooler snap: And, thankfully, that Scandi trough feature looks like being only transient. NH profiles:

You can say that again

And at T+165 (and well within the scope of the 500mb anomalies, I think) we have fresh to strong, warm and humid WSW'erly winds, and temps anywhere between, say, 17 and 24C, north to south...? But, as always in these situations day-to-day details will change: Who knows?

Zoomed in Version of last nights display around 1130pm. Not particularly happy with this image as its very noisy due to trying a lower ISO and longer exposure time due to the hazy and misty conditions. Hoping if clear tonight it will be better with fresher weather and not as much pollution.

Indeed, I don’t think the cooler unsettled spell will last long, I firmly believe we will see a return of summery conditions between early - mid July as the GEFS / ECM Mean shows!!!!..and as I mentioned yesterday!!!!!!!!..I’m out of reactions..surprise surprise!..great post as usual Tamara..

Oh if only IF, we could all just post our point of view on whichever model we have used and ignore any niggles/digs from someone else. There is a report button that will ensure the team check the report out and take whatever action they feel is necessary. I suppose I am spitting in the wind! No input re the anomaly charts but thye do show 6-10 days of changeable weather with somewhat below average late June temperatures. There is then a glimmer of hope on the EC-GFS with the slightest signal this morning for height rise south of the UK. Not on the 6-10 NOAA but there is on the 8-14. If each of them continue with this, say for 3 days, then we may be seeing light at the end of this fairly short tunnel?

Edited that photo last night but forgot to post it here. I presume this was like some of the dawn events that happen because I've never seen it that wild ever after sunset. Contrail caught in the mix seemed to strengthen later on too.

And to think it started as a little mental dot in the N Sea and travelled all that way getting biggerer and biggerer! And yet storms can't cross the flipping English Channel......

So at 3 this morning I took a little drive into kent to greet a developing cell in the Channel as shown below: I started somewhere in Severnoaks and traversed east to almost Faversham. Naturally this little feature decided to strengthen when I was heading home tired. Lightning was sporadic, a few close strikes (bang 0.5 seconds after flash), and thunder was deep growls rather than cracks. Was this an elevated storm? countrylanecg.mp4

Just to make it very clear to all glorious end to ECM 12z maybe this run is pushing Azores high too NE but looks at least for southern parts we look to see return of real summer from week after next.

Again looks like the ECM run wants to warm up the British Isles by day 10 going by the latest 850mb temp anom chart . A European great divide with trough domination again showing over Central and SE Europe according to the upper flow charts and resulting with some rather large negative 850mb level anomaly temps as seen below.

Wow!

Well hello there Mr High, nice to see you again ??

Nope, you’re not allowed to post. Who said you could post in here? Get off the thread, man... (Nah, we wouldn’t be that mean ) Was going to post that the 12Z GEM tries to also bring Summer back with the Azores High ridging towards the UK from the South-West, but been beaten to it by Mike Poole he hee While it’s nothing particularly impressive, the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean, still coming out, keeps Low Pressure to the North of the UK and High Pressure close by to the South and South-West late next week: Southern UK would see the best of brighter, drier conditions, but no full-on UK trough on those mean charts, so changeable probably being the best description for now. Particularly over Northern UK. Further on, and it then shows signs of the Azores High gaining a bit more influence and the unsettled or changeable conditions being pushed away a little more further and further North. Would definitely take that. Let’s hope the GFS answers your prayers ??

GEM takes a much more tortuous route to settled weather with combining a big low for a while, but eventually it moves away to leave a settled and warm scenario: This run is on the pessimistic side of what we might expect....after all it would be very unlucky for those two lows to meet and mate over the UK, wouldn’t it?

Think you (Seaton Carew) got a direct hit from this.

Does seem to be a fair amount of bickering in here today. Let’s keep it cool please! Everyone does have their own opinion and we all interpret the charts differently. I’ve also got no problem with people challenging others’ posts, (as longs it’s done respectfully and without insulting language). However, apart from the last few posts, anymore bickering and we’ll pour some Vanish solution on the offending posts!

An interesting GEFS 06Z ensemble set. There's even an @JON SNOW special in there! NH profiles: Hello! I'm Johnny Cash:

Ok..there are some good signs from the GEFS 6z..or am I a liar?..discuss

Well than, and putting all current disagreements aside, does anyone think the GFS 06Z chart, at T+384, looks a tad familiar? Sweaty socks are stealing all my storms. It's nae fair, I tell ye! Give them back, at once!???????

There are a whole host of reasons, and everything in the global circulation is connected! One reason though is that the Pacific is much bigger (almost 2x the Atlantic size) and more convectively active than the Atlantic Ocean, and this convection can alter the Pacific jet....the ripple downstream can then effect the Atlantic too. So often meteorologists will look in the Pacific basin for changes to change the downstream pattern here.

Here’s a short clip of a couple of lightning strikes my dash cam managed to capture the other night.

Greeting from a warm and sunny Eastern Alps ( makes a change ) Lets brighten up proceedings a bit. Latest GFS showing a similar picture to what ECM was showing this time yesterday at day 10. Warmth and pressure rises return the Western Europe/British with trough domination back on the cards for Central and Eastern Europe. Think you lot will gleefully hold out for this result but not sure about me . Enjoy the cool fresh breeze for a few days ! Aye, C

The storm was off to the west over Kinross, but it certainly looked the part from here

Well.... i was sitting out in my back garden last night, and as the clouds rolled in, i just saw some! This isnt my pic, i lifted it, but i saw what is in the red circle... ps.... where skies were clear theres plenty of pics from last night, most being the low level ones Arnie predicted...

Went chasing today but can't really say i saw much. My target area was around the wash (any further north was hard to justify) - I arrived in peterborough around 4:30 just in time to catch some cells to my SE moving north. Driving to wisbech along the A47 i saw a few CG strikes, but most of the activity was way up in cloud tops somewhere. They weren't very potent actually - in fact, the storms ii chased a couple weeks ago were much better with far less instability. I put it down to a lack of shear and forcing in particular - maybe the upper mid levels were a little dry too idk. Bit disappointing, however i did get some footage and a nice cumulonimbus in the evening as i was heading back.

If we look at T192, we seem to be in between this from GEM and ECM: poised to get better, I guess, or GFS or JMA with this: On these it already has got better, I think we will be seeing more of the latter in coming runs, and the unsettled apocalypse touted by some wont happen!