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My sister got this great pic from leith hill tower

I’m off before the farmer who owns this field comes after me

Got lucky down near Petworth Actually a lovely little storm

It’s only May still. I’d rather the plumes materialise much later on so that we get the maximum benefit from them. Things always seem more negative when the weather outside is naff. Our bar is so high nowadays. 30C is still unusual in May - many summers in the past didn’t see that figure. .

I think it is quiet because many of us are getting slightly bored of the outlook - looking at the charts/models is becoming Groundhog Day. Still no sign of any Spanish plume arriving or the magical 30C. (Despite what some folk have been posting/saying for weeks ) Meteorological Summer begins shortly and it’s all a bit meh for many of us. ECM: (Real heat staying in the usual places well away from the UK) Don’t get me wrong...weather looks lovely down South with temperatures in the low to mid 20’s for the week ahead but elsewhere it’s pretty mundane stuff. Gales and rain here currently which is a welcome change after a very dry/sunny Spring with not much going on...but it’s now at the point I am looking for heat along with convective weather! (I am sure many others are throughout the UK and Ireland) Apart from a few decent storms in Wales over the last couple of nights/early morning...May so far has been absolute cack for most of us. (Convection/thunderstorms) So a fairly quiet start to Summer looks odds on at the moment...hopefully the rinse and repeat scenario brings the risk of more sunshine/warmth/heat with convective weather further North and West. Have a good weekend and enjoy the sunshine/warmth - while I get soaked and pummelled with SW/WSW gales. All the best everyone!

Screengrab from the video

I’m very happy with the latest mean charts..0z & 6z from (ECM / GEFS)..there’s potential for Azores / Scandi high link up further ahead and generally higher than average pressure going forward...so, summers coming back in the next few days..and it ain’t even summer yet!!!!

@Djdazzle @mb018538 I am well aware what month it is - cheers though. I think you need to re-read my post - you two live in the hottest/sunniest part of the UK hence my post was aimed at warmth/sunshine/convective weather further North and West. (One or two day wonder we had recently isn’t cutting it) Chat of 30C and plumes has been a load of Betty Swollocks in here for weeks - it was never going to happen this month. The outlook is lovely for parts of the South (South East especially) which I stated previously. Hopefully the warmth can push further North and West as we enter June. Roll on Summer...

I'm not all that interested in plumes from the South, I'd be happy if day time temperatures were 23 to 25'C all summer. I'm not a big fan of sleepless sticky nights these plumes bring.

Everyone sleeping-in this morning? Without looking in detail, the 0z runs seem to continue the warm and settled theme.

Good evening gang .I have been lurking around .its now 10 weeks of isolation for me being vulnerable ,but great that my lady friend as been here with me .well todays weather as blown my runner beans over ,they are in pots .well looking at current charts no heatwave, and in the further outlook medium some heat generated rain .Do i want a long hot summer !! ,No Thanks ,that in itself will give all of us Grief on top of grief . Thanks for all of those posters who have kept this forum going ,Clap Clap , take care all ,cheers .

Getting close to month end, so my final set of CFS z500 anomalies for June, here's the last 8: The strength of the red anomalies on some of those are more representative of winter, usually summer gives weak signals. Not this year, the future looks blocked, where those blocks set up and for how long will make a big difference to weather in the UK, of course...and differences for parts of the UK as well, but washout it definitely isn't. There's definitely an Azores -> Scandi high signal on 5 of those, maybe more...

Got to the wye downs to see what i could get and it was worth it. It also looks like we’re going to get another storm coming over as it looks bleak on the second picture with really bubbly clouds so i’m prepared for wave 2

That’s the thing Pete - we all look at these charts for different reasons. Some folk are looking for rain, some folk heat and some folk thunderstorms ect...we all have different weather preferences in every season. The second part of the latest GFS was an absolute stinker from my point of view/what I am looking for to start Summer...but it is heaven for a cool/wet weather lover! The last two Summer seasons have raised the bar for me - delivered the goods up here with regards to 30C+ temperatures, long periods of 20C+, numerous thunderstorms, sunshine has been plentiful and the list goes on. Summer 2018: (Heat & Sunshine galore for us all) Summer 2019: June: (Warmth/Convective IMBY) July: (Warmth/Convective IMBY part two!) This is why the current output/outlook looks a bit drab from my point of view. Let’s see what Summer 2020 brings. Cheers!

ECM T96, close to UKMO at this point:

Gee whiz, if this weather continues for much longer, I'll be young, gifted and black...Or, more likely, old, jobless and white? My apologies to Bob & Marcia!

Well I wonder of this is the point at which the focus shifts from the z500 charts to the 850 temperatures, now we are reasonably sure we are in for a warm to hot settled spell taking hold from tomorrow? ICON T144: and T180: We move on, the heat pump incoming?

Well then...if it's neverending fine, sunny weather you're after, these charts must be candy for your eyes! But, on a more serious note: please @Mr Frost, can you send some of your rain down here?

It's coming...Yes, yes yes. yeeeeeeesssssssss...Oh yesss!!

Very good from the ECM 12z @120

Another one that’s going to miss. An absolute text book looking pulse type storm, this having a history of producing strikes over Heathrow. People ask me what fascinates me about storms and the weather generally - this photo probably sums it up for me really - just gorgeous!

I'd presume this is the same one to my SW.

Well, I'd be more-than-happy with this: the long wait for some meaningful rainfall could be over, very soon...? Then again, it might not! Thunderstorms? Well...Yes please!

Agree, plumes from the South are usually swiftly followed by wet from the West anyway. Happy to see high pressure on top of us.

Just watching my dinner in the microwave

Surprise surprise. It didn’t take a genius to work this one out. Or maybe it did?

UKMO and GFS at 120 i like it that much,i give two gifs

Heavy showers racing through East London - Unexpected cloudscape.

This was Crawley a few mins ago. Wow

GFS has high pressure dominating up to day 10 With the low in the north bumping into the warm, humid air in the south > a thundery breakdown with very needed rain in some places could occur

Good Post sir.. We all have our own preferences regarding weather.. I've always thought the majority of people like sunny and settled conditions, so they can get out and about and feel upbeat. Also alot of others like the sun because they love to get a tan! So it matters not a jot whether it's 21C or 35C.. You still get a tan, the upside for me is, its more comfortable of an evening.. These plumes are gr8 for heat lovers... But NO1... they don't last very long.. And NO2... they do not guarantee widespread storm activity.. Just like a fidgid airmass in Winter does not guarantee widespread Snowfalls. Keep in mind that most intense plumes will affect Central Southern And South East areas anyway.. The further North you are the less intense that heat most of the time. For the hear and now it's blow your wig off windy again today.. But sunny spells with some showers to the South and West and more to the NW. Beyond that it improves and gradually becomes warmer. Perhaps a brief breakdown come the end of next week.. But confidence is low on this.. But if it does occur, its likely to be brief... With pressure most likely building in again quite quickly. So to sum up.. Not gr8 for you storm and excessive heat lovers or for you in desperate need of rain... But pretty much gr8 for us without mass expectations who just want to top up a tan, and paint the Garden fences.. Enjoy your weekends, and stay safe.. And try not to wear an hairpiece..

Exactly! We’ve had a fair few days of 25-28c already....which is 8-10c above average. It’s still May, summer proper doesn’t even start for 9 days. It’s quite rare to see 30c+ this early in the year.

It is Les Droughtville already around this way, my poor veg need watering every evening, may get a shower today if I'm lucky and that's it for another ten days or so. Northern Britain a different matter. More in the way of coming up for the southern half of the country. GFS 0z 10 day accu rainfall... BTW..I'm down in the SE where you can see 0mm.

Nothing exceptional on today's GFS 00Z run; but I do find the prospect of a continuing lack of any useful rainfall a tad worrying: Les ensembles:

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and sat image The heavy rain over N Ireland and much of Scotland will persist through this morning along with the very strong winds before easing a tad but further rain will encroach N. Ireland late on courtesy of the next frontal system associated with the new trough in the western Atlantic. Further south frequent showers in the quite breezy westerly The rain over N. Ireland will track NE into SW Scotland overnight whilst the showers will dissipate in the south resulting in a clear night. By Sunday the Atlantic trough re-orientates as the subtropical high zones amplify either side. Over the UK the weakening fronts bring cloud and patchy rain to the north and some central areas but high pressure is pushing north and temps start to rise Over Sunday night into Monday the pattern continues to develop and the trough tales on a positive tilt stretching a long way south with the centre over Iceland as the ridge extends north east over the UK. Thus sunny and warm in most areas but the NW of Scotland still breezy with some patchy rain By Tuesday the Atlantic trough has disrupted as further amplification of the subtropical high occurs in the west and closer to home some cloud and light patchy rain as a couple of weak fronts are forced across the country And this is the position on Wednesday with the weak front trailing across the country bring cloud to some areas

Yeah, maybe, I knew there was a reason I gave up the frame by frame ECM commentary, it is because I'm crap at it. 24hrs between frames is often too difficult to predict. So why am I doing it again, simple, boredom, it is something to do at 7pm every night, so expect more rubbish commentary from me, as it is part of my lockdown day now, maybe I'll try and do it in the style of a celebrity sports commentator tomorrow...

The GEM looks good at 144 too.

Well folks, I'm on the farm again, on Tuesday...and, as the late, great Richard Pennyman used to say: Wham bama looma! RIP Little Richard!

Some more photos and it looks like another wave is coming over again, the second wave came over but it was just some very heavy rain no thunder or lightning.

I think this mornings GEM was by and large a diamond.. Only a temporary blip, with it being mainly settled and warm.. Also positive Exter update, with brief blip followed by more settled conditions... Also very warm at times away from the NW.. I'll take that to the Bank. Edit.. Even the NW becoming increasingly settled as well.

Just had a decent storm arrive on top of me whilst out in hothfield but i had to take cover as i was getting pounded by rain and wind. I did a video but its too large to upload here so im going to upload it when i get home. There was some mammtus clouds after it past though.

ECM in particular looks like a rinse and repeat job. Pick of the pack again today, looks very warm by next weekend!

I must be one of the selected few who prefers low pressure systems delivering wind and rain as opposed to high pressure dominating for weeks upon end. Personally I can’t stand high temperatures as they are often hot, sticky and humid in this country. No fun in the day or at night.

Aaaand, I'm on the farm on Friday too...And, what stonker! Over to you, Churchill:

Was the heaviest hail I have ever seen here in crawley, it was stripping the leaves off the trees and thr sound waa biblical, lasted for a minute and sadly did not have my phone on to record

Mammatus from a sharp shower with zero thunder/lightning however I’m not complaining because we need the rain. FullSizeRender.mov

Had my head down in studies for the past few hours and just seen the radar/blitzortung. Heading out to see if I can see anything - appears the most intense cells are to my south over Sussex and deeper into Kent - with some chance the shower over C/SW London might intensify as it trundles this way Edit - just stepped outside and see this handsome looking chap heading roughly my way not a supercell by any means not producing any sferics at the moment but a pleasant sight after an eternity of stable looking skies

Lovely little storm here. Small hail, gusty winds and around a dozen claps of thunder so far

To continue over the next three days with the gfs The shallow low in the southern quadrant of the Atlantic trough is quickly absorbed by further movement of the latter and then the previously described process is repeated but this time the amplification of the subtropical high north east has more traction and a separate trough is created to the south west of the UK. All of which results in the eastern Atlantic becoming a pretty inert area with the UK in a col

Well, from where I'm sitting (a book, a bottle of vodka, Netweather and Creedence Clearwater playing on the stereo) all the current runs look like stonkers! And, no guys (and I am one of the Ancients!) I've never seen a better spring than this one!