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Let’s be honest here - latest ECM and GFS are not great for real warmth anytime soon. (After the next three days of lovely weather that is!) ECM: (Up to May 17th) GFS: (Up to May 15th) Even the latest Met Office outlook for the month ahead is a bit of a shocker for some hot weather. Hint of turd polishing going on in here but no harm in that. (Most of us do it from November to March ) Starting from Sunday many of us will experience well below average temperatures and plenty of cloud for a number of days before we start to creep back up to average later in the week. (Which should be nice enough if the sun is shining) Looks chilly in London through Sunday to Wednesday at the very least. (Struggling to hit mid teens I would imagine on current guidance) Maybe snow flurries over the hills in South East England on Sunday? @Steve Murr London & South East England weather forecast Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Cloudier and windier with some rain on Saturday. Turning much colder by Sunday, with showers, these possibly wintry over the hills. Cloudy periods with isolated coastal showers possible on Monday. Anyways it has been a glorious Spring for most of the UK and Ireland so we can’t complain about a wee bit of crud for a few days. Summer has not even started yet after all - hopefully warm/hot and plenty of convective weather. Good to see @knocker posting in here - would be great if he done that daily. All the best everyone!

The ECM 0z ensemble mean shows a short-lived but relatively much colder plunge from the north between Sunday and early next week although effectively it’s a glancing blow with the main thrust down the North Sea / Norway but certainly a shock to the system following low / mid 20’s c and despite the shorter nights, still cold enough for slight air frosts and widespread ground / grass frosts but then high pressure builds right in over the u k and temperatures begin to rise again..by T+240..or sooner, the patient is fully recovered!!!

Roll on Wednesday! Goodbye cold, and good riddance...See you next May...?

Yes, karl; but after that early-week filth (I'm on the farm on Monday and Tuesday!) better things are on their way! And there's nae much of that tPV left! Edit: I'd take the GEFS 00Z mean alright!

It has indeed, Zak...Come to Daddy? Just what the doctor ordered! A stonker!

Ive seen the tea leaves and it's High Pressure in Control.. I'm not so sure about the pros insistence of more unsettled end of May... How can anyone have even a slight bit of confidence in what weather pattern we will be under in 3 weeks time! In the short term it's largely fine and warm through til Sunday, it then turns colder around this point and generally continues to mid next week.. Yes Pressure is building but not in the most favourable positions for real warmth. It could infact remain relatively cool and quite overcast towards the NE/E.. Shelter in the West fairing much better.. Beyond that could High Pressure assert itself favourably to bring a more SE element to our air! The ensemble I'm posting highlights the possibility nicely, and that would be a very nice outcome. Unfortunately it's only one of several outcomes, so we will just have to wait and see to how this plays out folks.. Do stay safe.

Indeed. A mid-month 'big warm-up' looks about right, as the GEFS T850 mean hovers around (or just under) 5C. So no heat, in the vernacular sense, but plenty of days with temps well up to average and little sign of an imminent washout? Things could be looking a whole lot worse...? So, just as one cannot rely on any heat developing, neither can one rule it out: uncertainty is a double-edged sword...

At this stage given earlier uncertainties, I am feeling quite positive looking at the ECM 12z mean at T240: Less of an emphasis on Greenland and a signal for heights over Scandi, portends well, just need to see it in the operationals in a day or two. But we can wait, not like there's anything to do in the meantime, is it?

Some more good news...the 12Z operational run is not an outlier; it's quite well aligned with both the control and mean: It's on the up!

Things definitely do look a bit more settled after the cold plunge, the GFS thinks...

I'm nae complaining:

EC clusters look like keeping things dry for much of next week - ridge dominated scenario by the end of next week. Might be reasonably warm again by then. Further out, 60/40 split in favour of continuing mostly settled. Trough anomalies are always further west, so odds stacked in favour of above average temperatures, unless a disturbance can develop to our east (just about within the range of cluster 3). Heatwave opportunities exist - cluster 1/2 could see ridge east/trough west combos pulling up southerly air, or cluster 3 might allow a "back door" heatwave if an Iberian trough develops with a SE flow to the UK - but this requires a lot more detail than presently available.

If that European HP-cell is part of a trend, and not a one-off, I'll take it; it keeps us firmly on the warm side of the 0C isotherm!

I'll take this from the GFS; better than nothing!

I said I'd keep this under review, CFS predictions for June: Here's the last 8 runs average z500 anomaly: So if you average all that you get heights over Scandi, and a hot summer for us, some of the runs suggest low pressure incursions from the south, so some storms possible too...liking the long range stuff at the moment!

@snowray that's the 00z ECM ens 12z ECM ens pressure/850's well the ECM/gfs mean at day ten are in tandem,not often you see that 12z GEFS ens pressure/850's now what i really like is the 8-14 day 500mb outlook from CPC which shows the hp cell NE of the UK instead of NW of which in turn should throw up some warmer air from the S/SE yes the upper winds are from a sw'ly quadrant but surface would be south of east i have rotated the chart so you are not breaking your neck when viewing it i cannot wait to get this chilly snap out of the way to enjoy some more glorious weather,if we are locked in for another 3 weeks then i don't mind some more fine weather to go with it remember to keep your... and stay safe.

The GFS has only gone and done it! Beauty!! And yes, of course I know about the time frame...

Looking west towards the cell near Newtown!

ECM and GFS again very different from yesterday when they were showing a big warm up towards the end of next week. Just goes to show that anything beyond 120 cannot be trusted. That said, the ECM mean looks more favourable. Others have said that the current pattern support a warm May, so as usual there is confusion because the Met Office don't agree. Have to say that over the years, the experts / well informed people on here have been more successful than the pros! Still confident of a big warm up around mid month. The only thing looking unlikely is an Atlantic onslaught. Hopefully we can take advantage of the PV being shredded, avoid northern blocking and tap into that heat building to our south. A hot and dry summer would be perfect payback for the horrid wet autumn and winter that we have endured.

The GFS does an ECM and also shifts the heat east at day ten,can we have a bit of westward correction in future please

Don't you just love the pub run? Even more, now they are all closed. T240:

One of those days that did not live up to the billing. Sunny start and by noon feeling very nice at 18c. Rapidly downhill after that with overcast conditions by mid afternoon leading to a wet evening. Light winds throughout and currently 10c.

Good evening all, there is certainly no need to wait for long after the cold plunge, as both the ECM and the GFS suggest some settled and perhaps warm weather on day 7 onwards! After all, it is May! Take care all.

No heat on here, so those earlier charts (suggesting heat next weekend) were just eye candy? This suggests ridging to our near west, a very slack upper airflow but possibly northwest over the north, maybe Easterly surface? After the expected Arctic blast this weekend conditions only return to something more average very slowly as next week progresses. But itll be cold, below average, dry, often rather cloudy especially in the East as we retain a draft from the northeasterly quardant.

Morning Earthlings! Another gorgeous day ahead up here, so I reckon a walk along the shore is the order of the day this afternoon. Have to trek into Portree this morning for pet supplies and drugs, wee trip to the bank and post office too. Such an exciting life! I have found a great home made weed killer....boiling salted water! Boy, am i getting through a lot of salt! It takes a bit longer to knock the weeds into touch, so I drench them once a day for about four days. It certainly works! Stubborn buggers get a dose of raw salt as close to the ground as possible which should kill the root. It does take longer than any chemical weed killer, but I'd far rather use salt than some smelly and toxic mixture. Safer for pets! Off course, all this gardening activity has resulted in a bit of a sore back so I'd better lay off it for a few days. Stay safe people, and enjoy the sun while it's still here!

If this heat pump comes off i will deliver you a beer

If it was like for the rest of the summer then I’d be happy. I know it won’t. Oh well. Enjoying watching the birds in the garden despite having to remove our bird feeder as a rat was dining on the dropped seed below it. Another great sunset this evening with Venus shining brightly.

Same in Caithness. Splendid. This is Causeymire windfarm with Morven, Scaraben, the Maiden Pap, Smean, Cnoc an Eireannaich and Small Mount (not in that order - look 'em up on walkhighlands.org) in the distance Be about right for the lockdown to be relaxed enough for us to get on the hills just as the weather goes tits up for the summer. Ever the optimist, me

May = the new December possible ice day in the highlands and -4/5 dew points erm

It's a good ECM run tonight, we have that colder air poised for the latter half of the weekend, then it's a cooler early next week, before things again warm up later... Pretty close to some really warm conditions to... Should be back up to 20c either way. So I've got the barbi for Friday, it gets put away for Sunday and exchanged for me ice breaker. But by the end of next week I should be raving... Ps... My god this must be me long lost Brother...

Sunny skies again but what a difference in temperature! Wind has switched to the west and it’s 18c!

here is nothing in particular going on just movement of the tpv lobe driven by the general NH circulation and energy distribution

The ECM 00Z is not as good this morning- but the handling of that low to the north of Scandinavia looks odd to me. It starts moving southwestwards at T+192- maybe someone can enlighten me on what is going on there? Still a lot of very good weather on offer next week with plenty of sunshine. Looks like remaining cool until at least midweek though.

Defo NOT the clear skies of yesterday a little bit of rain approaching the SW but don't look like there much to it maybe a little splash later if anything

I have to admit this would feel preety cold, especially following the warm / very warm weather during the next few days!

A reminder tonight that we are racing towards midsummers day with the all night dawn to the north making its appearance. Photos taken at 10.45 pm with the lights of Invergordon and the rigs visible. Fabulous day here too with a top temperature of 16c.Had a nagging wind from the NE to hold temperature back.

Talk again of 2018 tonight. I think it is a good comparison for this year, and I expect that from now (after the cold snap early next week) until well into July, our weather pattern may well match 2018 to some extent. My thoughts are that the far north will not experience what happened in the early summer period, though, conversely the south may see earlier heat than in 2018. I'm keeping an eye on SSTs relative to 2018, today's comparison: Both have the cold pool out west, but differences to our immediate SW. To me it looks like a similar but slightly weaker driver than in 2018. Models at T240: Actually looks pretty consistent to me, with ECM getting +14 uppers in as well, and that heat pump looks familiar from 2018 too. CFS shows no real fall in AAM from any developing La Niña in the medium term: So, I think there is reasonable confidence, taking into account long range forecasts from the MO and CFS which I have posted about previously, in a hot spell from about mid month, possibly having some longevity. Thunderstorm potential less predictable, but certainly a possibility....we will see...

Similar to others, a cloudless day here felt quite warm too, moon just making an appearance

Looks like a possible mcs moving north across Spain tomorrow morning then clearing followed by storms breaking out again in the afternoon possibly merging again, also a chance of some extending into parts of France in the evening.

Evening all A sudden change from spring warmth to winter chill on offer over the weekend but this often happens at this time of year as the winter and summer air masses clash and the end of the PV allows colder air to flood southward. The T+240 charts this evening from ECM, GEM, GFS OP and Control taking us into mid month and beyond: A few items of interest - after the cold blast, the HP remains overor just to the north before slipping away SE and this allows the European trough to move north and take control of the weather for southern districts so an unsettled spell with rain or showers likely later next week. From there, ECM, GEM and Control send the trough east and a more traditional pattern re-establishes with an Atlantic feed and the Azores HP ridging NE in response to the Atlantic LP moving in. GEM keeps the jet to the south with strong heights over Greenland but ECM and Control go for a more northerly jet pattern. GFS OP is the outlier here because instead of sending the European trough east allowing heights to rise as the Azores HP ridges in it sends part of the trough energy west with a new area of heights developing over the Faeroes and extending to Norway. This keeps an E'ly flow over southern Britain but further into FI the joining of the Azores and Scandinavian HP cells creates a strong ridge over the British Isles with the trough held to the south - the problem with that for heat fans is the orientation of the HP doesn't allow for the hot African air to advect north.

Not looking forward to this cold easterly weather early next week.. We've had a lot of that during this spring and it's s**t.. Anyway.. Very nice synoptics on the GFS later on so hopefully it's not just a fantasy - fingers crossed

Well after this upcoming cold snap early next week, hopefully we will see the last of any frosts, then things should start to warm up again nicely as we head towards the following weekend. I'm liking the look of the GFS in FI, has us down for our first proper mini heatwave, long way off but something to keep an eye on.

Glorious morning here too. Went to the vets and Co-op in Alford just after midday and the car thermometer was showing 18c most f the way there and back, with a short spell at 20c at one point on the way back. Cloud started to roll in around 2pm and started raining around 4pm, which wasn't forecast.

Seeing as how I'm going back to work next week, I'll have some of that Pete.

Yes Paul,they have been pretty steadfast with it. today v's yesterday.

Stunning day after another cold night. Clear blue skies and light winds bar a few hours in the early afternoon when it got rather brisk. That wind prevented the temperature from getting above a max of 16c, though more than happy with that! A gorgeous moon out there just now, demonstrated via a terrible camera phone picture.... Bats out in force this evening as well, most seen so far this year. A lot of fly-tipping now taking place round here - this appeared in one of the local woods. There are a lot of selfish people out there.

Hmmm, that’d be great. Seems like the benchmark is so much higher now for extremes. Remember the days when getting to 30C was a “wow” moment. Nowadays it’s a shock if several days don’t exceed 32C in the SE in a given year. Liking the models tonight.

Here comes the heat pump at 216 from the ECM...

Quite a turnaround from the models - many were showing a Greenland high a few days ago! For once, I’m glad! Another rarity is that ECM and GFS are fairly similar at T192.