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Looking at the 0z output, in my opinion the eastward correction / shunt of the colder air at the end of this week / start of next week continues, it’s more and more of a glancing blow looking at the GFS 0z op / GEFS mean / Ukmo / ECM 0z op...I think there should be much more focus on the very warm settled weather than the non event cooler blip from the north that follows it!

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the much discussed Northerly is now preety much as dead as monty pythons parrot..the eastward correction continues!

Changes are afoot, peeps! No heatwave of course, but more vitamin D-friendly weather to come. Whatever happened to all those extra (Grand Solar Minimum) condensation nuclei? Stay safe and (in the words of Nanci Griffith) Keep a Distance!??

Well folks i am rubbing my hands together looking at the ECM day ten chart with temps gradually recovering meanwhile we have plenty of fine and warm weather for next few days coming up,then a temporarily blip next weekend,and as others have said,this cool plunge is getting pushed further east on every run and by the time next weekend comes we will be saying what is all this fuss about.

Starting at T144, ECM and UKMO have high pressure close to the UK so the northerlies affect places east of us: GFS a little different as the heights are further north: Might affect what happens later, ECM T192: Heights starting to drain from Greenland, so here at T240 ridging into the UK from a more normal summer pattern. And SSTs still looking very favourable: Warmer now around the UK, with all that fine weather we've had, and still that cold anomaly to our far west, bodes well for early summer, as the jet stream should take a northerly route and the Azores high ridges in to the UK, still think it will be a bit further south than this time 2018, though.

Strange seeing some talk of northerlies vanishing when they’re still very much in the modelling. Sun-Mon has always been peak hit time, before it eases off and we’re left under high pressure with the air slowly warming up. Adjustment-wise, true that the slackening off has been sped up a bit. Trouble is, that means very light winds while the chilly airmass is still in place - a recipe for a widespread ground frost even in May. Longer-term, the expected movement toward a warmer pattern for the UK continues to feature in the modelling, though GFS is throwing in all sorts of peculiar spammers as usual. Somehow it’s sequences tend not to look as ‘real’ as what you see in ECM or GEM.

Evening all A final taste of winter next week for some? We'll see but beyond that where are we this evening? T+240 from ECM,GEM, GFS OP and GFS Control Some cold air about early next week - especially so for the time of year over Scotland. Further ahead and the trough to the south looks an interesting player. This is basically coming out of North Africa and is the main response to northern blocking. It's quite a pronounced feature over Spain on the GFS OP but both ECM and Control have it though it's weaker on GEM. We often see this in May and June and it can bring early warmth and storms and a lot of rain across Europe and fringing the British Isles. The positioning of the HP varies from just to the north east to over the British Isles - it's not really the Azores HP but the former Greenland HP drifting south to the west of us. ECM and GEM are more progressive with the Atlantic profile with GEM (as it often does) modelling quite a deep feature. GFS OP never really gets that warm and there's no sign of any significant early heat - with the trough due south rather than to the west, the air flow is more SE or ESE but this isn't an Atlantic trough digging south and advecting warm air on its eastern flank but the North African trough extending north into Europe so it doesn't work so well for fans of heat.

Good evening all, some beautiful weather is likely this week with loads of sunshine and warmth on offer. The GFS indicates Friday being the warmest day of the week, and shows 23c possible in the London area, low twenties in the south, and the mid/high teens up north. However, the GFS most of the time underestimates temperatures, so the mid twenties (or even higher!) could be possible somewhere in the SE. Saturday sees the last day of the warmth with the low twenties possible in the SE. It will be a different story in the north, as a northerly will be sweeping through on Saturday, meaning that it will be a north and south split. And then on Sunday, a cold plunge might be expected, and if it occurs, there could be a difference of over 10c in temperatures between Saturday and Sunday. Some sleet/snow showers could be possible in the north on higher levels, although it is uncertain at the moment. The only thing certain is that it will be cold mostly everywhere on Sunday. What will happen after the cold plunge is also uncertain, but quite a lot of models are suggesting settled and warm weather to follow after the cold plunge. This is the weather most of us are expecting at this time of the year as a cold plunge with -10c 850hpa in the north is certainly not normal for early May! I also found Pete's post about multiple plumes after the cold plunge quite interesting too. Hopefully this year will be filled with a lot of Spanish plumes!

Fabulous sunset tonight a selection of photos A couple of photos too of Ben Wyvis on Mrs Northernlights camera from mid March showing the depth of snow on Ben Wyvis and the mountains to the west.

As others have said the ECM is lovely bar a short lived colder blip... Could be a frost or to in places... Beyond that High Pressure build in nicely and we see a gradual warming, perhaps becoming very warm by day 10...summer is coming... Are you ready.... I am...

Sunday and Monday looks raw for many of us! Only really the areas mentioned in my previous post look at risk of wintry/snow flurries/showers. (North East of Scotland added to that) Met Office summary for Highlands & Eilean Siar: Outlook for Thursday to Saturday: More cloud around Thursday and Friday but still some sunshine along with scattered showers, heavy in east, warm. Rain clearing south through Saturday then sunnier, colder, wintry showers far north. ECM: (Sunday) Monday still on the chilly side. Tuesday remains chilly: Warm up incoming after that.

I was going to suggest that it was asleep, but the ensembles agree that it has indeed expired; it has ceased to be. That said, next Monday and Tuesday still look a tad nippy!

The ECM is certainly trying to shift the plunge to the east now!

Not very nice that the 06Z operational run is among the warmer ensemble members: I guess that's my CET guess (12.9C) well-and-truly defenestrated, then!

Afternoon all As @Kirkcaldy Weather mentioned above -10 850hpa in the second week of May is quite noteworthy...especially after a Winter of crud! (Snow/cold lover point of view) ECM is very chilly indeed - couple of frosty nights. It does look as though a few snow showers/flurries could pop up in Shetland, Orkney and the very far Northern parts of mainland Scotland. (Elsewhere...who knows!) Poor folk in Aviemore for example will be enjoying glorious sunshine and temperatures in the high teens/20C tomorrow...then cloud and 5C on Sunday! Current weather is lovely for many of us but personally I am looking forward to some proper heat and thunderstorms! Roll on Summer!

The way the models are trending (eastwards)...you won’t be seeing -10 T850 hPA until next winter..possibly!

The watering down / eastward shunting of the cold air continues on the Gfs 6z operational, I expect further eastward adjustment will occur, it’s just so predictable but at the same time good news..in the meantime, enjoy the sunshine and rising temps during the coming days..that’s the main story this week!

Good afternoon all, after the cold plunge that is expected this weekend you might not need to wait too long for warmer and settled weather, because the GFS 06z places that right on the cards for day 10! It shows that there could be the chance of some rain from the SW once again from a low in the Bay of Biscay, but other than that, that is the weather we certainly want for May and the upcoming summer... enjoy the rest of your afternoon

Good to see the eastward correction / shunt beginning on the Ecm 12z operational, predictable too of course but now we are into May i would rather be looking south than north for my weather!

If this was the 5 December, January or February and things were moderated like they have been I'd have been sobbing into my beer. As it is, I'm pleased that things are getting 'downgraded' (or 'upgraded' if you like) and pushed east We see this so much in winter leaving us disappointed. However, this time of year I've been cheering on the moderation!

Also - not for the first time, the models look to have overplayed the extent of northern blocking. There is still some high pressure over the pole, but nowhere near as extensive as predicted, and the location has changed too. All for the better in our locale too.

ECM is lovely this evening. Cold air doesn’t hang around too long, and turning much warmer again at day 9/10. Yes please!

Met Office even going for snow down to sea level across Highland and the NE for a time on Sunday morning with temperatures just above freezing and a feels-like temperature of -4. Then dry with occasional sunny spells and 10C by Monday. GFS seems to corroborate this: A very odd and brief return to winter on the cards!

That's a good point you make, I was quite surprised how confident the beeb was in forecasting significantly colder Conditions at that range, they are normally the first to play it down at any time of winter let alone spring. I think the 6z mean continues with that theme of moving the coldest conditions East... So if you wanna see a true Arctic blast perhaps head for scandy.. High Pressure looks set to build for next week too.. In the short term some rain in the SW today, but hopefully better for you tomorrow, elsewhere plenty of sun, but a keen wind... Enjoy.. Stay safe.

Never been much support for more than a brief punch of well below normal 850s and day temps. Main cause for concern is overnight heavy frost potential Sun-Mon & Mon-Tue, depending on how much of a breeze there is to work against that. As the tropical cycle progresses on, mid-Atlantic ridging should be encouraged to ‘spill’ east across the UK, much as the models are now suggesting for D7-D10. NAO should then tend to turn more positive during 2nd half of May, remains to be seen how well high pressure remains in play across the UK then. South favoured for it by then.

Didn’t think I would be seeing -10 850hpa in Scotland in May

I’m glad. Not just because I don’t want cold weather in May, but because it would be like the weather gods were rubbing it in our faces! Like Jim Bowen in Bullseye, “If only it was winter, here’s what you could have had . . . “

Anyone else reckon we have made it into April and beyond now? I know, pedantic... For the sake of my plants and lockdown sanity, here's hoping it's nothing more than the previously mentioned glancing blow. At least regrowing everything from seed will give me something to do, but would it be too much to ask for sunny sky with the occasional but needed shower? What do you mean mother nature doesn't do requests?

Looks like that on the latest charts and what is being now spoken of on this mornings media TV weather presentations. C

Stunning

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and sat. image Heavy rain and strong winds are currently effecting Cornwall and Devon and the rain will move a tad north as the frontal system tracks east across northern France through today, but it will also start to fizzle out albeit the cloud will linger. Elsewhere not a bad day with the usual caveats vis the eastern coastal areas The cloud still lingering tonight in SW/S regions with patchy rain/drizzle but elsewhere quite clear with some ground frost around A sunny and warm day for most on Wednesday but cloudy with showery rain over Cornwall/Devon and SW Wales courtesy of fronts associated with the low to the south west of the country Another sunny and warm day on Thursday with the country remaining under the influence of the ridgewith with perhaps the odd shower popping up By Friday the energy flows around the high pressure are making some inroads with some frontal rain encroaching Scotland and N. Ireland whilst further south another warm day with showers developing in central areas By Saturday troughs are converging from the north and south west and colder air is on the way south behind the cold front with snow showers quite likely over Scotland

Another cracking day in paradise. Here's one for @Northernlights Morven and Scaraben in the distance which would make a long fine day's walk on a day like tomorrow. <sighs> (I feel your pain, @snowidea) More strong sun tomorrow then warmth and cloud Thursday and yikes for the weekend.

@Mr Frost latest run has -10 850 hpa line reaching here, not sure of the last time that happened in May.

We may still have another bite of the cherry in a couple of weeks and the building blocks are in place for some snow in June

The gfs over the next three days. Essentially the cold air sweeps south into Europe behind the front but the UK is on the periphery of this as the high cell to the NW regains some influence During this transition it will be generally quite cold with temps below average and on Sunday very windy and wet in southern regions with some wintry showers in the north By Tues/Weds drier with the wind abating but the detail is of course subject to change

High of 15C here today and plenty of sunshine - sums up Spring so far for many of us. Stunning day tomorrow - pushing high teens for large parts of Scotland and maybe a 20/21C inland somewhere. Took this picture through the window at 21:55 - lovely end to the day. All the best to you all!

The ecm mean is a glancing blow for the NE of the UK at 120,then the pressure builds back in afterwards with temps recovering.

We are not saying that they are vanishing bud but we are saying that they are getting watered down on every run just like in winter so nothings changed,the difference is that we don't want it to happen now and i hope that it gets watered down further nearer the time anyhoo's has anyone seen this mornings CFS run(06z),check this out... that would be a nice B'day present?️

Just wish it was less windy lol, the wind is cold.

Last night's 12z GFS forecasted 0C minimums in my area early next week - now up to 4C at the lowest as the true artic blast (as so often) heads further east in the latest models. Quite happy about that as late frosts are potentially very damaging but it also suggests it was unwise of some broadcast forecasters to over-egg the pudding too early. Of course things can change but I'm struggling to think of many occasions in the past where once a northerly downgrade kicks off it goes into reverse.

The ecm for same time period. Cold but warming slowly. Dry

You think so? I can't see much evidence of the Atlantic being particularly active on the ECM 12Z run. The GFS (which seems to have lost the plot tonight to a degree) is showing a very quiet Atlantic indeed.

An interesting period coming up for sure, let's take a look about T 168, first GFS T162: Max cold on this suite, and still possible. And thanks to @Steve Murr for highlighting this possibility in recent days, and making us think, even for a second, that snow might happen, and that we are not in this coronavirus nightmare.... Other models, T168, ECM, GEM and JMA: All these push the high pressure over us before any significant northerly can take hold. JMA briefly cold at same time: Moving on to T240, ECM and GEM are starting to show the direction of travel I expect, that is, to warm settled:

Well, thank goodness this wasn't Dec, Jan or Feb: What once looked a really potent cold shot downgraded again. Massive meltdown on here (including from me) if this was winter. Frosty though

Merely out of interest. A forecast sounding for midday Sunday in th north of Scotland. Colder and unstable air in the lower regions but warmer and drier air from the anticyclonic airmass to the west pushing in over the top putting the kybosh on any deep instability

Look on the bright side, you are all set up once the lockdown ends, unlike the masses who usually dissappear off to a beach in Spain or Greece. Decent day here again. Very damp grass first thing so don't know if it rained overnight or not. Warm sun but a cool wind so the usual variables of temp depending on exposure to wind and sun. I worked in the garden all afternoon quite happily with just a sweatshirt on over a T-shirt. That's another section of new fencing put up, so puppy and next doors ponies are kept apart (old fence was badly needing replaced). Now we'll see if the badgers dig under it or not cos it's probably blocked off thier main route from the fields behind the house into our garden. Never seen them but scratch marks in the lawn (I hesitate to call it that given the proportions of moss and weeds in it) suggest they pay visits, and something sets off the security light on the back of the garage.

Got some pictures from the Arcachon cam.

Don't think I'm alone in the north in saying that I have absolutely zero interest in seeing anything white falling from the sky or anything like -7 temperatures at this time of the year. The garden with all the fruit/vegetable plants and flowers is doing really well after such a beautiful April. Hopefully the 12hz is just going off on one and reverts to the 6hz (pictured below) to conform with the ECM and we see the high collapse over the UK to bring a recovery in temperatures and more warm sunshine.

Yeah, was about the say the same. Thankfully the cold is soon shut off, so we may have 2 or 3 cold days tops before temperatures recover. Good. Nobody (apart from maybe 0.1%) of the population wants single figure maximums in May.