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Yup after the ecm went off on one yesterday with its crazy cold charts it seems as though its being watered down as usual!!good stuff dont need such cold charts at this time of the year as much as i love cold and snow!!gimme a spanish plume now instead!

Nothing watered down at all. Whatever you want to label it the GFS is a massive change to cold. The ICON / GFS have all moved today to the ECM position of yesterday with a blocking high the western side of Greenland. No blizzards predicted but certainly the chance of some low level snow Sunday evening. Note the windchill Sunday night as well. -11c for the highlands but sub -5c widely on May 11th. Also look at the westward correction from yesterday Still time for corrections east > Note the UKMO @144 is about 150 miles East which is enough to make it less impactful but still chilly...

The 12z is shunting that much colder air Eastwards.. High Pressure looks to be building nicely from the West to... The crowd are on the pitch.....

I can't see any cold snap having much legs at this stage, the 6Z certainly doesn't keep it around for long and seems to show pressure building to the North nicely during next week.. A short sharp shock shal we say... Certainly not an eye popping moment..

The duality of spring right here on the ukmo 0h! sorry I’m out of reactions..

Now that's better from the ECM!! Temperatures look to be still a bit below average but not in single figures!

The gfs is NOT a cold outlier.

Yes, Karl, once this cold shot is through it is all eyes to the SW for pressure rises, and look to the south for heat, and reloads, summer starts in my opinion, after this cool or cold shot next week, which is a direct result of the strat final warming, it was benign, so it's effects shouldn't linger. Good to see the ECM tending towards the longer range models at this range...

Well Zak, the extreme cold and snow that swept southward, at the very end of May 1975 was defo followed a plume. A lot of plumes in fact...

Yeah, was about the say the same. Thankfully the cold is soon shut off, so we may have 2 or 3 cold days tops before temperatures recover. Good. Nobody (apart from maybe 0.1%) of the population wants single figure maximums in May.

I think the entire model is an outlier mate...

Patience folks the 12z is probaby having a Donald Trump moment, it's about as useful as his press conferences... But look no further... It builds High Pressure in and warms us up towards the end... Arrrrrrrr...

The ECM 0z ensemble mean indicates a big drop in temperatures at the end of this week / early next week from the north, turning much colder for a time (especially further N / E) but before that it becomes very warm across the south later this week with low / mid 20’s c for a few days as much of this week looks settled and increasingly warm under high pressure with the exception of the SW tonight / tomorrow which becomes wet and windy with perhaps some embedded thunderstorms. Also looking towards mid May the mean shows green shoots of recovery as the Azores high starts to ridge in.

And just to back up Karl's post above, the mean continues that trend.. With a cracking build of pressure following.. How do ya like them apples GFS!

Good to see the eastward correction / shunt beginning on the Ecm 12z operational, predictable too of course but now we are into May i would rather be looking south than north for my weather!

Don't think I'm alone in the north in saying that I have absolutely zero interest in seeing anything white falling from the sky or anything like -7 temperatures at this time of the year. The garden with all the fruit/vegetable plants and flowers is doing really well after such a beautiful April. Hopefully the 12hz is just going off on one and reverts to the 6hz (pictured below) to conform with the ECM and we see the high collapse over the UK to bring a recovery in temperatures and more warm sunshine.

At 168, ECM slams the door. Chilly, but nothing exceptional.

And how do you know that!!! the gefs ens are not out yet looking at the gefs mean at 162,that is pretty chilly.

The GFS 12z is so different to the 6z, it’s laughable!

Well it looks like winter MAY be back for one more bite

Holy sheet! Now it's the GFS that's on the ramp!

Good afternoon all, it will start to become warmer later this week with a high of 25c possible in the south on Friday. However, the GFS 06z shows some big changes will be afoot this weekend with a cold plunge from the north. The 06z shows that it could be an over 10c drop in temperatures in some areas on Saturday to Sunday!! Still unsure about whether there could be snow (there probably won't be any) but if there is any then it will most likely be in the north and confined only to higher ground... so big changes on the way. So there is a chance that some snow lovers in the north get some snow (not often do I say that!) and it might be worthy especially after the mediocre winter we have just had... the cold snap only has to verify first for all of that to happen. Stay safe all.

I think to be honest I can't complain about most models showing a cold plunge from next Sunday onwards. We have had a stunning first half of spring. Kept me going thru this awful disease. I'm gonna enjoy the sunshine this week knowing the fact it's not even summer yet. If it gets cold next week so be it. Il protect my small plants especially the cucumber. They hate cold. Last of all keep safe and thanks everyone on here for the input. I'm learning more and more everyday. God bless also the NHS stunning jobs your doing.

Och well...the GFS has come into line! With a slow but sustained recovery to follow. According to the 00Z ensembles:

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and sat image A fair bit of cloud around over south Wales and southern England at the moment but it should break to some extend resulting in a quite pleasant day. Elsewhere plenty of sunshine but showers developing along NE/E regions during the afternoon. The usual caveats re, eastern coastal regions with an onshore wind apply Tonight some frost patches under the clear skies in the north but the low to the south west is pushing north and the associated fronts will bring some heavy rain, perhaps thundery, into the far south west and becoming quite windy The rain will continue for a time on Tuesday but ease through the morning. albeit still windy, but another sunny day further north No significant change to the pattern over Tuesday night through Wednesday resulting in sunny day with a few showers By Thursday there has been some slow developments in the Atlantic and an occlusion that has sneaked into the Irish sea may bring a few more showers to western regions. Otherwise another warm and sunny day The slow developments continue on Friday and there may be a few more showers around from the stray fronts but essentially another warm day with plenty of sunshine

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ECM for a week from now: Looks like it's toppling to me. A short, sharp cold spell followed by a settling down. Gardeners beware though - some cold nights likely should it verify

Good. That weather is certainly not normal in May! Hopefully it does lead to Spanish plumes...

Cold alright, down to -11c hpa for the Highlands with lots of snow graphics there too. Not an outlier that's for sure, this is what Januaries should look like not mid may! Lets see what the ECM has to say, somewhere in between UKMO and GFS I'm betting on.

Going by the very low 850mb temps into Scotland by Sunday, I would imagine the depth of cold is heading towards exceptional for the time of year up there. C

The excessive heat that's been building over Southern Europe for some time now, is beginning to concern me a tad; it wouldn't be too outlandish for one to 'expect' some of it to come this way, between now and August. And that sort of heat, during any kind of lockdown, would be just another potential disaster, for our elderly folk? Not saying it will, of course, just that it might -- especially once the residual cold air has blown itself out, and a more usual +NAO regime becomes established. Anywho, the Trump-end of the GFS 12Z:

Oh my, eyes almost popped out of their sockets when I saw the ECM day 7 chart. That would bring the real risk of low level May snow.

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An interesting period coming up for sure, let's take a look about T 168, first GFS T162: Max cold on this suite, and still possible. And thanks to @Steve Murr for highlighting this possibility in recent days, and making us think, even for a second, that snow might happen, and that we are not in this coronavirus nightmare.... Other models, T168, ECM, GEM and JMA: All these push the high pressure over us before any significant northerly can take hold. JMA briefly cold at same time: Moving on to T240, ECM and GEM are starting to show the direction of travel I expect, that is, to warm settled:

you're obsessed by plumes lol

ECM still agrees Could we get -12c uppers in May?

Tomorrow morning (5-5-2020) marks the start of when Comet Swans becomes potentially visible over UK skies. Realistically we may have to wait a week or so to actually view... when it appears higher in the sky above the pollution layers and low horizon clouds. It`s going to be visible for a couple of months.... so hopefully there will be plenty of opportunity for viewing In June it will be visible in the NNE skies where it will coincide with this years Noctilucent Cloud season For the non-tweeters the finder chart which Weather-History posted above

I think the mean is further East with that cold plunge, perhaps High Pressure closer in on the mean!!

I was bored today and made my own thunderstorm risk map. Now I am a pro forecaster

Thank goodness for that, was terrified of blizzards!

Latest UKV run looks beefy that's for sure! Thunderstorm Advisory Issued by Metcheck: Metcheck.com - Latest UK Weather Warnings - UK Weather Alerts. WWW.METCHECK.COM Metcheck.com - Latest UK Weather Warnings - UK Weather Alerts.

The GEFS mean anomaly gives a fair overview of where the gfs is this morning. It is relatively obvious that there is a fine balance between the main players and any shift will impact the surface analysis in the reion of the UK

Continuing over the weekend with the gfs and caution recommended regarding the detail Essentially the energy flows establish high pressure to the north west and low over western Europe resulting in unsettled weather pushing up from the south on occasion and a strong NE/E wind developing and thus much cooler air spreading to all of the country over Sunday/Monday

Yep, Dan's forecast aligns well with my current thoughts. ESTOFEX forecast link too: http://www.estofex.org/ (Level 2 Issued for W France) Could be in the sweet spot if you live in Cornwall, UKV has thundery activity even reaching there tonight.

That blob first developed over my house from about 11am. Led to a couple of hours of variously heavy/slight rain before moving ESE. Went three miles north for the daily dog walk/exercise as sheep have appeared on our regular route - and caught this shot which has to be some of the freshest spring grass amongst the ash:

There is a general agreement on the overall NH pattern between the ext anomalies this morning but some significant differences remain that need to be ironed out Upstream there are ridges NW North America into the western Arctic and Russia adjacent to the tpv which has significant troughs into northern Europe and northern Canada/NW Atlantic. Downstream, and between the latter two features, the subtropical high amplifies in the Atlantic with the complicated addition of low pressure around Iberia. Precisely how the features in the Atlantic/European arena align will dictate the surface analysis in the region of the UK. Suffice it to say at the moment it doesn't look like heatwave weather but could well be relatively dry. We shall see

ECM 0z showing a much watered-down northerly compared to its previous two runs.

Wouldn’t it be so typical of seeing a cold spell in May that gives us uppers lower than what we’ve seen all winter! It can happen and certainly did back in May 05 or 06, can’t be sure what year it was. But travelling back down from Scotland and along the A66, the wind switched quickly from a W early morning to a moderate N’erly, and that gave a good covering especially up on the Pennines, and even at some lower levels in N Yorkshire. You wouldn’t have believed it was May that’s for sure. It’s a funny old month at times.

With all due respect Steve, im sure im not alone in not knowing what day it is,let alone what month! At least the weather is giving us else something to occupy our minds

No one is ramping it up. Just commenting on how unusual it is. I think we know what month it is now...