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Showing content with the highest reputation on 19/04/20 in Posts

  1. Looking through the GEFS 0z I happen to think the first days of May...MAY be preeety good!
    12 points
  2. -0.2°C overnight making it my thirty eighth air frost. Crystal clear morning. Lyrid meteor shower picking up over next two nights so these skies should help enormously and with only a sliver of a crescent moon, this year might be a good one.
    8 points
  3. Such a pleasure to see clear blue skies expected during most of the week ahead rather than the usual North Sea filth one would usually endure with such a set-up at this time of year in particular!!..
    7 points
  4. I’m really liking the GEFS 0z mean for most of the week ahead, it screams beautiful sunny days and gradually warming up, from next Friday the fine spell crumbles as pressure falls but that doesn’t preclude further warm fine spells and perhaps something much warmer and more humid / thundery from the south!!!
    7 points
  5. Max of 16c today and not a cloud to be seen. Sunset and post-sunset was not too bad either. Perfect Spring weather.
    5 points
  6. GFS 06Z not looking at all bad, folks? I keep needing to remind myself, that Summer is still almost six weeks away!
    5 points
  7. Robins, blackbirds, lots of common birds behave like this. Nothing compares to the extreme violence of a peregrine though (not my photo) Blue here too - there was the remains of some vague haar over the other side first thing, long since burnt off. It's warmer than yesterday with little wind.
    5 points
  8. Cracker of a day, wind much lighter. Already 12c, despite the breeze I think we’ll be making 17/18c by late afternoon
    5 points
  9. Indeed @JON SNOW, there some quite god/interesting synoptics being hinted-at there. Even a potentially, though admittedly not very warm (and a very long way into the future!) thundery low: And who needs 25C air temps anyway, when grovelling in the dirt! And, even better, the GFS 00Z Operational lies at the colder end of the GEFS ensembles:
    5 points
  10. Of course there was a lot of talk about the fact it's only April as the risk of anything significant is low but this from a couple of years ago shows what we can get if everything falls into place. This is from 21st April 2018, not my video although the same storm also hit here.
    5 points
  11. Coll start at -1c but sunshine all day from cloudless skies.Reached 13c this afternoon in a cool E wind Put cows and calves out full time today but will continue to feed them silage as the frosty nights are holding back the grass and dare I say it its getting very dry for shallow rooting grass.
    4 points
  12. Indeed not, karl...And, looking at the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles, just about anything could happen, after the 27th?
    4 points
  13. Looking beyond the frankly gorgeous weather expected during the next 5 days or so according to the GEFS 6z mean & other output..there is no need to despair because although the mean trend is for pressure to fall and the weather to become less settled, that doesn’t preclude further warm fine weather into May and indeed there is support for warm weather during early May!..in the meantime, despite the ongoing horrors of COVID-19..there is plenty of sunny and increasingly warm weather to enjoy in the days ahead..as today!
    4 points
  14. I had a few strikes overhead and nearby back in February during the big heavy wintry/snow showers - @NUT @Ross B @Stormeh (amongst others) did well if I remember correctly. Hopefully Summer delivers the goods once again! Up to 14c here now so hopefully hit at least 16c later. (Chilly nights and pleasant/warm days - lovely spell of weather most of us are having) Still plenty of snow patches on the Arrochar Alps in the distance - not nearly as much as up in Glencoe though. Webcams - Glencoe Mountain Resort WWW.GLENCOEMOUNTAIN.CO.UK Click to refresh the page Click a thumbnail to view larger webcam view or scroll down for slideshow.
    4 points
  15. Morning all! I won’t add to the pictures already posted on this page - same as all the above here. (Blue sky) Current temperature of 11c and looking at 16c this afternoon - wee bit of Spring warmth for a good few days ahead for many of us. That mythical weather land of Aboyne has done it again...very cold overnight. Perfect Spring weather and I will take a repeat of Summer 2018 (heat and sunshine) or Summer 2019 (warmth and thunderstorms/convective weather) Summer 2018: Summer 2019: Summer 2019 was great for the above reasons, Autumn 2019 was great for the October and November below average months which had plenty of frosts, number of ice days and snowfall over higher ground. (Above average sunshine and below average rainfall here for the whole of Autumn) As for Winter 2019/20...let’s pretend that never happened. Really enjoying most of our seasons nowadays! I’m off to enjoy the warmth/sunshine - have a good Sunday everyone.
    4 points
  16. I make it 3.8mm at my local station (better known as St Monan’s rather than St Monance!).
    4 points
  17. The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Apart from Scotland there is a fair amount of cloud around this morning but this should thin and largely dissolve through the day and get relatively warm albeit getting a tad breezier. Possible the odd shower in the south west during the afternoon A mostly clear night with the odd frost patch by morning but the H/L squeeze is underway so wind increasing A dry and sunny day on Monday, perhaps some cloud in the south west from the wee trough and windy in southern regions. Quite warm with the usual caveats re. eastern regions A similar story on Tuesday with the easterly wind the only issue Not a lot of change over the next couple of days except the wind does abate by Thursday. But the NH picture is in transition with the tpv lobe and trough to the NE developing and further troughs exiting the eastern seaboard tracking east resulting in the high pressure to our north starting to migrate west to Greenland
    4 points
  18. Hi everyone, hope that you’re all safe and well Been a belter of a week weather wise here in Prague, barely a cloud until later this afternoon, when things quite quickly began to feel a bit stormy. Some dramatic skies before sunset led to a 20 minute heavy shower.
    4 points
  19. Cloud broke up here mid morning and left clear blue skies. Max 11C. Always a cold breeze though and it felt cold again from late afternoon. Our end of the street had a social distancing drinks party from 4pm which broke up three hours later mostly because of the chill. Drinks got colder in the hand so ice was unnecessary.
    4 points
  20. Clear blue skies all day but its cold air, max of 8c today in generally light winds. In the sun felt perfect as long as the fleece was on, in the shade a tad chilly. Beautiful evening for a walk, going to be another chilly one tonight as already down to 3c. Come to the conclusion Sparrows are the bullies of the avian world, got some Coal Tits that keep investigating one of our bird boxes. Every time they get close, they get mobbed by Sparrows, even though they cannot fit into the box in the first place.
    4 points
  21. I should have known better! (Being Scottish and all) Great word! gloaming. A poetic word for "twilight," or the time of day immediately after the sun sets, is gloaming. ... This is a word with a strong Scottish heritage, adopted from Scottish dialect during the Middle Ages and rooted in the Old English word for "twilight," glōm. I shall be using that in future.
    3 points
  22. Police called after pelican escapes from Edinburgh zoo | The Scotsman TRIB.AL It was spotted roaming in Corstorphine.
    3 points
  23. Lovely sunny day. Still chilly though, just 9c in the easterly breeze. Meanwhile I see Prestwick and Altnaharra are at 17c.
    3 points
  24. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 840 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Louisiana East Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 840 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this morning across east Texas and spread across the watch area through the afternoon. Large hail is the primary threat this morning. But increasing winds aloft will promote a risk of tornadoes by early afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Shreveport LA to 55 miles southeast of Angleton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035.
    3 points
  25. Some uncertainty on how the high may break down and just how wet it will get although it does seem next weekend the weather will be cooler again as a northerly flow may get picked up but even that is not a certainty. I wonder why there is a lack of low cloud forecast this week, I'm guessing the air is too dry but it's still a lengthy sea track and warm air aloft. From my experience in the NE when an easterly sets up you usually get one fine daay of clear blue skies and sunshine then the low cloud rolls in overnight and then it's in the lap of the gods whether it breaks up or not.
    3 points
  26. That was a great evening of storms. I lived in Southampton at the time, and I couldn't believe it was April given the warm and humid feel that came with them. Also, the amount of rain the storm at about 10pm dumped on the city was nuts. Since that event showed what's possible so early in the year, I've decided that 21st April is the start of 'plume season'.
    3 points
  27. Sunny again Just the breeze is niggling if there was no breeze around it'd be perfect
    3 points
  28. I find this a good mid-range guide (and they usually update daily ) Metcheck.com - Storm Forecast Discussions - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 19 April 2020 - Expert Meteorologists Analyse Storm and Convective Forecasts For Countries Around The World. WWW.METCHECK.COM Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 19 April 2020 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth...
    3 points
  29. Latest update expands the MDT risk/15% tornado area eastwards.
    3 points
  30. According to the gfs this process continues slowly over the next three days with the UK generally in a very slack gradient but the detail is tricky so not putting too much credence to this at the moment without seeing the ecm or the ens
    3 points
  31. Fabulous sunny afternoon with clear blu skies and moderate cool easterly breeze.Checking fences and sorting a couple of holes in the dykes so we can get cows and calve out sometime next week. Not a lot of grass but dry sunny weather good for them and we will feed silage every day to them until the grass grows properly. Currently 10c
    3 points
  32. Would be good if the council hadn't 'upgraded' our streetlights to these bright white dazzlers
    2 points
  33. I agree 100% with this. Rawness plus detail.
    2 points
  34. Total scattergun on the clusters again post D10 Maybe a slight tendency for a ridge to our east, which could promote warmth, but no clear direction.
    2 points
  35. A fair bit of uncertainty creeping into the semi-reliable timeframe now, roughly what happens day 6 onwards i.e. 25th and beyond. Models continue to show falling pressure over NE Scand/NW Russia region associated with a shift in the northern hemispheric pattern, this enables heights to our NE to transfer NW and become much less robust in nature, whilst at the same time pressure is forecast to lower over mid-east atlantic. It leaves us in a bit of a no-mans land, unclear whether the lower heights to the west will anchor through into the UK, or the heights to the north/north west advect far enough NW to draw in a colder northerly/north easterly feed. Either way the latter end to the month is currently forecast to bring something much more unsettled than has been the case since mid-March, not a complete washout, but we could see quite slow moving frontal / low pressure system and trough feature over the UK held in place by heights to the NW, low heights to our NE, and low heights to the SW, no-where for it to go - with the jet making a direct beeline for the UK. The atlantic influence probably symptomatic of the continued slow death of the PV, and renewed surge of westerlies..
    2 points
  36. Overcast here, hopefully it will clear The medium term GEFS anomaly merely confirms the transition to a more unsettled period, albeit nothing drastic with the slack gradient
    2 points
  37. The polar vortex of 2020 is so exceptional that the models can’t resolve its full resilience beyond about 10 days range... I suppose that’s to be expected really, much like how you’d not expect a record-breaking heatwave to be reliably predicted at 10 days range. The slower it decays, the more I wonder whether we’ll see a legacy of low height tendency in the Arctic troposphere until at least July. That led to interesting results when we had the slight Nina-like swings to the atmosphere in May-June 2018. This time around we may be more Niño like at least in May - so perhaps a less stable pattern, lengthy dry weather exchanged for thundery breakdowns to warm/hot air plumes. Mainly speculation, usual caveats apply!
    2 points
  38. Very little forcing in the Atlantic by D8 Last time I saw such a slack chart was a week before the 2018 heatwave began. No reason to think there'll be a repeat of that - indeed, looks like attacks from the north or west could be on the cards in the days after, but will be watching with interest to see if the Azores High is encouraged to ridge in and bring a plume with it, like the GFS tonight eventually does.
    2 points
  39. Quite a difference in 12 hours with a move towards this morning's ecm
    2 points
  40. Certainly quite different West to East. I quite like the rain, certainly a fan of humidity which it brings. We need the rain, no doubt as you say July/August will be a write off Yesterday at work in the far SW was 16/17c but today at home is meh. Cloudy until about 1pm and quite a cool breeze. 13.5c the high, hopefully warmer tomorrow
    2 points
  41. Typically Scottish here too i.e. warm feeling sun but cool breeze so overall effect depends on whether you are in the sun or not, and exposed to the breeze or not. In sun and sheltered from breeze and it feels more than passable for April. Got out for a food shop this morning, about the only thing we still can't find on the shelves now is flour. Didn't even have to queue to get in, but we were there at 9am. Looks like I'm not back in school as expected on Monday as the particular kids I was going to be supporting aren't coming in after all. Not yet anyway. Oh well, just have to survive 'working from home' for a bit longer. Like most I expect this to be a long hail, with lots of on/off lockdown periods.
    2 points
  42. Started to clear here at sunset as alluded by @NUT The photo of Ben Lomond was taken from our house on the 30th of March. Doesn’t look that different this week. Enjoying have a camera that has a proper zoom function that actually zooms and stays in focus. I was planning on painting a wall today but the really stained glass windowin cold easterly wind combined with laziness prevailed. Hats off to you folk further east who are bearing the brunt of this. You are taking one for the team like we do with the rain!
    2 points
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