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A pleasant morning for a walk around the garden, , although still on the chilly side with a temp of 10C at present. The slight breeze is from the SW, but may veer towards the north later, I think. The sky and clouds are the stand-out features of the day. Some random sky pics:

Not impossible if everything lines up correctly - needs to be direct northerly - this GEFS member could manage it? Regarding the general scenario, still quite uncertain for the UK at around T144 - on these clusters, some sort of flow from the east is likely unless the Atlantic trough develops and gets closer - get too close and there'll be rain, get fairly close but not too close and another warm southerly could sneak in. Further out, though, the movement towards ridging to the N or NW has gained pace. Such set-ups are unlikely to allow warm air masses to move up to the UK (unless home-grown in the far W), and leave opportunities for the kind of cold blast highlighted in the GEFS member above: though ECM attempts to build NW blocking in the mid-term often result in blocks further east than first advertised, so W areas in particular may still do well out of the final third of April.

Warmed up nicely as the day progressed, although the wind did turn to a northerly direction. Spent a fair bit of time cloud watching unusual skyscapes. As with many things meteorological, the deeper one delves, the more complicated things become. Think these are mainly altocumulus and altostratus, but could be quite wrong – if anyone can be more specific? A wee Yellowhammer kept a close eye on the observations.

Nae a bad GFS 00Z run, this morning: oodles of sunshine but temps would be variable, owing to the day-to-day position/orientation of the HP... And those charts will, of course, all verify!

False alarm. Cloud clearing again

Just like yesterday really. Started clear and sunny..............but the cloud's crept in again (although eventually did break up) it another wait and see day I guess

There’s plenty of high pressure / strong ridging on the ECM 0z operational which suggests a good deal of fine / pleasant surface conditions across most of the u k with sunny spells but later this week there is an increasing risk of showers for the sw / s, some heavy and thundery for a time. As for temperatures, variations from day to day / night to night..high pressure edging NW later which is in line with the GEFS 0z mean I mentioned earlier.

Is that a UFO come to check the 5G is still radiating coronavirus generating bacteria? Quite pleasant in Caithness today although no sunset colours to speak of. Ms HC is losing her winter paleness with all the gardening.

Hope everyone is keeping well. Another fine day here with lots of decent sunshine - bit hazier as the afternoon wore on. Reached 14.6°C after yesterday's colder blip and an overnight low of -2.1°C. Very dry month so far, with only 4.4mm of rain recorded here to date. As others have mentioned, the forecast out to the end of the month is looking settled and very dry - am just starting to wonder if we could land a repeat of 2018's fine spring and first two thirds of summer, with a recurring pattern of high pressure. Would be a wee tonic for folk given the current wider situation. Lovely day topped off with a belter of a sunset. Tak tent and keep well, fellow kilters.

I meant that next week temperatures will be warmer than average for the time of year. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

The GFS 12z is an amazing run if you like settled weather. It has a high dominating most of the UK up to the start of May!! Obviously the chances of this verifying are not too high (pun intended) but it is showing signs of more warmer and settled weather into next week once again!!

Lovely chart from the GFS 12Z:

Started off like yesterday, not a cloud in the sky. Low cloud has rolled in from the west since. Looking at the satellite images, seems very foggy/low clouds over the Atlantic. No significant spells of rain anytime soon. Finally the ground can dry up after the washout winter

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and sat image A weak trough in mid Atlantic connecting the major troughs to the north and south whilst high pressure dominates over the UK After a frosty start a fine day for most and warming up again but come cloud in the north and possibly a touch of drizzle in the far NW as the weak cold front slips south east A clear night in most areas but the cold front and thicker cloud will move further south By Thursday the trough connection/energy distribution has pepped up the trough to the SW which has encroached the south west bringing some showery rain. Much of the rest of the country will remain sunny and quite warm, the exception being parts of Scotland and the NE where it will be cloudy and much cooler By midday Friday further troughs tracking into the western Atlantic have put a squeeze on the ridge and the high cell moves north of Scotland whilst the low to the south gains more traction. Thus showery rain over Wales and southern/central England and again cooler down NE coastal regions Not a lot of change on Saturday By Sunday the high cell and troughs have moved a tad east initiating a general easterly flow over the UK which will mainly be dry, perhaps the odd shower in the south, with some variation in the regional temps

17.9C here was the max. Min nowhere near as cold as yesterday at 3C. Near wall to wall sunshine made it feel very pleasant. Ground here, at least in my garden is bone dry and has been for a couple of weeks. Grass had its first cut near the end of March but has hardly grown since so already looking like needing watering. No rain in the forecast for the foreseeable so I suspect the farmers and gardeners in the NE in particular will be looking for rain soon.

According to the gfs (keeping in mind there is rarely a smooth handover from the fax) over the next three days another extension of the tpv drops in the western Atlantic initiating further amplification of the subtropical high as the Atlantic low tracks east into Iberia. Thus the H/L north/south pattern continues pretty much for this period maintaining the easterly surface wind component. Generally staying dry and gradually warming up again with the usual caveats vis eastern coastal regions

What a stunning evening to be out for a cycle! Went up round the reservoirs again but was so busy enjoying the silence and the scenery I only took one photo!

Temperatures currently forecast to be very average next week, the source of air is off the N Sea and points further east, no warm continental source. Nights will still be preety chilly. After a showery wetter interlude for some later this week and through the weekend (more so central southern parts of England and Wales), the outlook remains a fairly dry settled picture, cloud amounts will be more variable and eastern parts will be disappointing with a fresh wind off the N Sea. Longer term - signal is for heights to move NW towards Greenland, whether we pull in a cold N/NE shot before the months end no-one can call for certain, but certainly not out of the question and all very normal for late April.

Thanks Zak! Am a little bit rusty with all the storm charts at the moment but with all the time in the world over the next few weeks hopefully I can scratch up a little!

Sean Batty was spot on. Aboyne must be a great place to live for a weather lover - always gets a wee mention every year with regards to interesting stats.

So we have some fine and warm weather for most of England and Wales on Thursday, before we see an area of low pressure to the SW bringing showers for these parts on Fri and Sat... The North probably drier and cooler through this period... Sunday looks an improving picture, and into next week looks decent for sunny spells and a tad warmer... UKMO shows a SEtly drift to that wind early next week.. So let's just get end of the week and early weekend out of the way... Then not to bad again... In the mid term anyway. Just to show what we are all missing with that gif folks..

Yesterday was down to -1.5c when I got up at 5:30, a high of 11c. Felt ok in the sun. Today got down to 0c at the same time (Still had to defrost the car), max just shy of 18c. Not far away from a real summery feel. As others have been discussing, not even 5mm of rain so far this month here and the next 6/7 days is varying degrees of sunny...

It looks more than decent for western areas in particular in the reliable time frame. The 850s look ok to me for the most part. 16-18C is being shown for my area on the GFS surface temperature charts from Tuesday. Important to remember that it's still only April so upper air around 0C isn't far off average.

Indeed Ed, perfick innit, cold, dull and windy with rain in the south.

Another Wednesday off for me and once again the weather has come up with the goods. Currently 18c at Leuchars, probably nearer 13c here in Pittenweem but very pleasant in the sun. Coastal path still chilly though as the sea temperature is only about 7 or 8c.

Currently cloudless skies here and 19.1 C currently rising 1.6 C/hr, looks to be a few warmer spots dotted about at 17/18 C, just noticed yesterday morning minimum temp was 0.4 C here.

Thanks for the explanation guys ??

Thursday > Saturday with the 0600 ecm Current sat image

Thanks to @Flash bang flash bang etc for his explanation I will add, that is possibly why the MUCAPE which is the elevated stuff appears to be more impressive for the end of the week than the SBCAPE (surface based) here is some more info on instability and CAPE etc http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/ingredients/instability/ Forecasting severe convective storms WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG another thing that sometimes needs factoring in as happened in the latest storms and also up here last week, a storm formed in SW Scotland but as it tracked towards me CIN developed and rapidly weakened the cell. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/905/ Convective Inhibition (CIN) TORNADO.SFSU.EDU

Grass frost here too. Down to 1.8C at 06.00 this morning. I've been pottering around with indoor jobs this last couple of days - squeaky floorboards fixed! But with a nice sunny day ahead and temperature set to get up to around 16C, I'll switch to outdoor jobs today. There's no garden waste collections here now, so hedge cutting a problem. Dare I get on the extension roof and take some tiles off to find the leak that's developed? Looking good:

The GEFS 0z mean is still showing retrogression with heights sucked NW towards Greenland so that means there is potential for a colder / less settled late April but before that there should be plenty of fine pleasant surface conditions associated with high pressure in the vicinity of the u k but also watch out for a risk of heavy showers later this week across the sw / s.

Because it’s elevated it won’t need to rely on surface heating to sustain the electrical activity. This is also how it will (hopefully) be able to pass across the channel without losing steam. The airmass moving up from Iberia would already consist of unstable air so from what I understand you’d need to be looking at MUCAPE values for a reading of how electrically active these cells or bands of rain might be. If this is wrong please correct me btw, I’m still learning

Not far off it as it stands. Even if it looks bone dry there must be enough moisture in the soil as I noticed that some of the ploughed fields are beginning to show a tinge of green. I'd still say we could do with a good soaking though. Today was easily classified as 'usable' for working around the garden even if it was a bit of a chilly start. By the afternoon though I was down to a t-shirt when the sun was out. Going to make sure that I enjoy tomorrow as even if there's not much rain in the forecast for the foreseeable, neither is it likely to be quite as warm.

And the T850 and 2m temps almost follow their respective ensemble means, so nowt too disturbing: Anyone-else notice how much the BBC and MetO monthlies differed from one another?

It’s not bad for next week granted. Final week could be back to low teens if the high sets up in the wrong place. Plenty can change until then though!

Just 1.6mm of rainfall at Leuchars so far this month after 19.8mm in March. What a turnaround after a very wet winter!

Thursday looks to be the warmest day this week with 20c+ around the London area. Some heavy showers can't be ruled out however near the SW corner On Friday a band of rain associated with a front will move through southern areas during the afternoon. A bit cooler on Friday however. Saturday sees a similar day to Friday, with rain or showers in the south and cool and dry up north And then Sunday is almost the exact same picture once again for Friday and Saturday. More rain or showers to come in the south meanwhile the north will miss out on any rain and it will be cooler in these areas.

Hmmmm - Might this Prelim rating be upgraded - The plot thickens with that brick built structure

Summer index for London since 2007. 2007: 244 2008: 253 2009: 277 2010: 279 2011: 247 2012: 233 2013: 311 2014: 293 2015: 276 2016: 271 2017: 287 2018: 344 2019: 293 That would suggest that 2019 was quite good in recent years. 2012 was worse than 2007, though August 2012 was the best summer month from either of those years.

The ext anomalies along the lines indicated recently with the tpv looped across N. Canada > Arctic > northern Europe with the subtropical high amplifying in mid Atlantic into eastern Greenland. There is no agreement on the intensity and alignment of these major features and this is critical to the forthcoming surface analysis The lower strat. this morning

I would simply be happy to see some sort of actual thunderstorm this year.

2nd place! Wooo! Thank you for the organisation and setting up of this little comp, enjoyed it

Seems a bit high to me I will go for 17/18C somewhere like Banchory

Thank you, God!

hello all. nice to get out today, bit milder than yesterday, my dog is soo confused. every day is a bank holiday to him

The spring blossom at the moment is really pretty!

So that provisional number of 11.4 C ties with 2011 as warmest running CET to 12th. The running mean in 1778 managed to interrupt for one day on 13th (11.2), as 2011 fell to 11.1, but then 2011 picks up the lead again for a few days, around 11.0, before 1945 takes over for a few days 17th-21st. That warm spell got up to a running value of 11.4 before falling well behind with a very cool finish. 2011 took over the lead again on 22nd and held it to the end. Looking at model runs, thinking we will be playing tag with 2011 most of the way in now, on the basis of the maps fully verifying, would imagine the outcome to be 10.7 to 11.2, but a wider range quite possible. This 11.4 report may in fact be the high point but it does look somewhat possible that we might edge past that again in about a week. More likely not with the east wind factor, maybe will hold in the higher 10s. As to records, on the provisional numbers, they were set on 8th, 10th but not on 9th, 11th or 12th. The 11th had the highest mean but 1869 had a particularly robust record of 16.0 that date. The 12th record of 14.4 (1939) was not quite reached (must have turned a bit cooler in the northern part of the zone). Also safe was the 2017 record set on 9th, but it appears that 1798 (12.5, 8th) and 1928 (13.5, 10th) have lost records to this warm spell. The EWP meanwhile is currently about 2 mm if they add one for the scattered thundershowers yesterday, and the 10-day GFS projection is rather light at 10-15 mm, then the rest of the month looks not overly wet (perhaps 10-15 more). That could be a total as low as 22 or as high as 32 mm.