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Same here. Currently 3c You should get out in the garden too. Very difficult not to dwell on the main issue.Speaking to a young auctioneer this morning who was keen for this to end .Had to say to him that I thought we were in for the long haul unless a vaccine could be found.BSE in cattle had an economic effect for 11 years from 1996. Good news is breeding heifers will go this week.sellers can"t go.(miss a half day out at mart) only buyers spaced out round the ring or bidding by phone with live video. One mart already geared up to bid online in real time with video.

Cold grey morning here. Ms HC keeps busy in the garden while I meditate on the fragility of civilization. Or something like that. Music please.

The ECM has certainly moved towards the GFS for the coming weekend with a slightly less strong ridge to our east, and consequently it has dropped the very high temperatures though still above average with a SE draw - still likely to be in excess of 20C in the southern half at times. The UKMO still looks very warm for next Saturday / Sunday though - much better size and positioning of the ridge - would still see low-mid 20s as a possibility :

Today's GFS 06Z suggests this week might be a tad 'less dire' than some of yesterday's runs did...Maybe it's got fed-up of being a cold outlier!

And with the GFS in broad agreement, HP ending-up somewhere to our north, I eagerly await the outcome of May-time's accelerating continental warming...

Extraordinary scenes down at the point this afternoon, where everyone goes to watch dolphins and is normally heaving in recent years at Easter. (Come in vain at Easter, dolphins don't appear just yet.) I cycled down there and found absolutely no-one. You could say surreal. Then the collie sea monster appeared again, so I had a wee chat with the owner. Then away again. The sky was blue (still is) and little wind. Very few cars around. Most of the time, the loudest sound now is bird song as breeding season is ramping up. These were today - this one this morning, before the sun came out and this was late afternoon. Hopefully some fruit this year, the bees are busy here And thanks to @chemikal for restoring my mood earlier

Here is some footage of the thunderstorms yesterday night.

Yes. I spent 2 hours cutting up kindling for next winter. And the sun has appeared now too. The sad thing is the wankers would probably get voted back in with an increased majority if the was an election now. I guess at least there's not as many flannel-arsed naebodies in Scotland. God save me from the invective that would attract in the CV thread - seems to be discussions between conspiracy-theorists, tory apologists and people with no sympathy for the victims. Mostly. Present company excepted.

Absolutely disgusting behaviour from Some of the So Called Chasers out there yesterday including Derek Smith who has form for being a complete reckless Yahoo over the past few years to the point of only having 1 point left on his license. These people are NOT Saving Lives in any way. And for information purposes on the videos of crossing the Median driving over live power poles, around fallen trees into oncoming traffic this was not to escape another large tornado it was to catch upto the Wedge that had just crossed the Highway in front of them, the 2nd storm at the time was well to their North West so complete and utter b oll ocks to try and wriggle out of it that way. I would send the Vids to the MSP (Mississippi State Patrol) and throw the book at him as we dont need this POS in the Storm Chase Community.

ECM clusters this morning broadly support the migration of heights to the north-west, but also suggest the op run is being rather fast in doing this. At T168 and T192, you can see the op cluster is the most progressive in removing heights from the UK - less progressive clusters, which look more like this morning's UKMO, hold a slight majority. By T240, even though heights are clearly NW at this point, it isn't clear how the interaction with a trough to the south will play out - scope for an easterly to pick up (probably not a northerly due to the absence of a strong Scandi trough), but also scope for a trough to be retained to the SW or to not be present at all - both latter examples could allow warmer air to continue to filter off the continent. Probably a 50/50 call on a cool/warm balance by this stage, and possibly local affects with east coast areas more likely to be chilly with some sort of northerly influence (this may set in at some point between D6 and D10). NW Scotland may do well in this set-up. By D15, it looks like the NW ridge remains favoured - though with anomalies being slight over Europe, no real way of predicting how this will affect the UK at this stage.

Looking at the 500 mb charts for an idea on what our weather may be in the 6-10 day time frame. Monday 13 April Ec-gfs and both have closed upper ridge with ec further n than gfs idea, and still, on gfs anyway, the idea of a closed upper low circulation s of this ridge Noaa quite a change from the one above; the main trough is not that much different, in position or shape, but it is the large contour ridge couple with +ve heights in the uk area that really show up; still some sign on the 8-14. So the 3 are fairly similar especially with regard to the presence of ridging in the uk area and probably n of the uk, ? e or w, probably e on balance. So a quiet spell but probably a better few days sun and temperature the further you are from the east coast! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

After a chilly start to the day, things improved after the sun appeared mid-afternoon. Warm enough for sit-out with a coffee. (10C) Our future Damson jam; Maybe a serious 'ethics' thread over in the other place would be interesting, or maybe not.

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, the longer term trend continues to indicate high pressure being sucked towards Greenland with potential for a chilly less settled late April, perhaps with some arctic influence but by the cusp of May, any wintry weather would be very watered down / toothless and there’s no guarantee it would work out that way, there are a few warmer options but the main theme is of a blocked slow moving pattern with some pleasant benign surface conditions for most of the time.

At T+240, and things still not looking three bad. Okay, so nothing like the heat the ECM was predicting, only a few days' back, but not those raging, frigid NE'erlies either.

Grey but light, 3C here. Very calm.

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight Any storms will have cleared by daybreak but cloud and some patchy rain associated with the front trailed across the country will linger a while this morning. Otherwise a mainly sunny and dry day as the ridge slips over the country but decidedly chilly with more cloud along eastern regions courtesy of the onshore breeze Still cloud around in eastern and southern regions otherwise a clear night with a widespread frost A sunny day on Tuesday and getting warmer, particularly in some NE regions By Wednesday trough movement in the Atlantic that has previously been discussed is taking place and a cold front linked to the trough in the north will bring cloud and rain/drizzle the far NW. Otherwise another warm and sunny day after a frosty start Things get a tad more complicated on Thursday as the trough to the south west and associated warm front bring some showery rain to the south. Whilst at the same time amplification of the subtropical high and the movement of the trough over Scandinavia drag the cold front south so colder over northern Scotland and some NE coastal regions By Friday we are almost back where we started with the warm front draped across the south, with perhaps some heavy showers in the SW, but much cooler air north of this, particularly eastern coastal regions with the onshore breeze

Hope you are all well/healthy. Weather has been glorious most of this month! 10C here today and feeling very pleasant in the sunshine. (Rest of the week looks great here - plenty of sunshine and temps between 11C and 15C during daytime with chilly nights) Out for my late afternoon/evening walk/run - had the beach to myself and arrived home at sunset. All the best to you all and have a good week!

I doubt it. The internet is just a vent for people's pet peeves; ethics and politics are perhaps best kept to chats with people you really know. We have just the first 3 or 4 plum flowers (Victoria) opening late afternoon. Please no sleet now please.

A very decent ECM 12z operational with plenty of high pressure which becomes even stronger towards the end as it’s reinforced from the Azores, following all the low pressure of recent months, it’s nice to see high pressure predominantly in the ascendancy bringing largely pleasant weather!

I suspect you where talking about this morning's run? the 12z is a vast improvement,i just hope it's not a warm outlier just like the gfs op/control gefs ens and the gefs mean at 240 That's an impressive mean for day ten and we would be drooling at a mean like that in winter.

Chatanooga (Tennessee) Tornado which claimed 10 lives has been rated as EF3

The spring blossom at the moment is really pretty!

This was yesterdays temperature drop here as the colder air moved in currently sunny and 7.8 C / DP -1.2 C

Lovely morning, calm with broken sun so bordering on warm. Awful afternoon, windy, drizzly, downright chilly. Chilly enough for me to light the woodburner in the lounge for a couple of hours early evening.

I think what Knocker was referring to is that we shouldn't take that time frame as gospel as we know how quick models can and do change from now until that said date but you also have a point as to what the ens show(bearing in mind the 12z not out yet) and there doesn't look to be a warm up anytime soon and looks to become more unsettled after days 3/4 also the anomaly's show a cool picture out to day ten and beyond with height's centered to the N/NW of the UK cpc 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb height anomaly's lastly,if we where to look where the source of the wind direction is coming from then check out the De-built wind direction chart,it shows predominantly winds coming in from 45 degrees NE. so at this moment in time,the ext models/ens and anomaly's show a cool picture so make the most out of the fine conditions for the next few days.

I appreciate the input Paul the Soso one will be interesting I think that is where they are thinking possible winds 200mph + Just seen this from the cookeville tornado last month

Only 8c but pleasant in the sun, chilly away from the sun. Beautiful blue sky. Cracking afternoon after a dull and chilly morning.

Not great here, wee bit of brightness but no real sun and not warm at all.

Started slow but turned into another crackerjack of a afternoon (maybe just a tad chilly in the slight breeze) but lovely jubbly again

Got down to 2.4°C in early hours. Currently 7.7°C. Cloudy but less breezy than dusk yesterday.

Afternoon all ECM swung dramatically toward GFS overnight and this morning's GEM plays a very similar tune. While we might get a true E'ly, there are two other thoughts which are cropping up in the Ensembles across the board: 1) IF the northern blocking is too far north the south gets closer to the European trough and we'll import rain or showers from the Continent leaving the fine weather for the far north. The response to strengthening heights to the north is a broad but shallow trough from the Atlantic through Europe. IF the heights across Scandinavia are robust enough the British Isles is in the E'ly flow with the continental influence felt only in the Channel Islands and along the south coast as a strong wind - if not, pressure falls to the south and the instability manifests in the form of areas of rain or showers. 2) What often happens is the heights drop out of Scandinavia and retrogress to Greenland so we get a new LP developing to the north of Iceland which swings SE and introduces a cool/cold NNW'ly airflow so the flow is E then NW then N as the HP re-consolidates over Greenland/Iceland which is effectively what 06Z Control shows. The 06Z Mean tells you all you need to know:

According to the gfs over the weekend the high cell to the north drifts east to Norway and thus enhancing the easterly component of the surface wind which will be quite brisk in the south by Sunday. But mainly dry apart from in the south west on Saturday where the low pressure is still exerting some influence

A distant rumble of thunder accompanied by some hail here

Great little storm grew and passed over us in Bourne (north of Peterborough). The proper way to end a spell of heat.

This evening's ext anomalies are indicating a tpv more or less over the pole with trough extensions eastern Europe N. Canada enclosing a strongly amplifying subtropical high in the Atlantic, the precise position of which is quite critical when it comes to the surface analysis The spv

Today's GFS 12Z: T+72: okay T+168: getting iffy: T+240--->: dire! Here's hoping that run goes down the toilet!

I've just stepped out for a smoke and jeez! It's really fresh in that nagging easterly breeze... Gone from wearing hardly anything to thick hoody, tracksuit bottoms and socks in my sliders .. Might have to get me long John's back out

99?

That happens all the time though. Even in summer it’s often 5-10c warmer in the south east. Can’t have it all eh! I never get any cold or snow here in the winter, so swings and roundabouts!

The ecm has a much more relaxed gradient next weekend with the high cell drifting NE and low pressure in the SW being a tad more influential. Some marked regional temp differences on Saturday

I think the sea ice must have dropped to a low enough level in 2005 to trigger some sort of "tipping point" into a warmer climatic base state. Although not as exceptional as the 2007 minimum, the September 2005 minimum was a new record low at that time, and the sea ice extent for winter 2004/05 also fell to record lows after the turn of the year. It was particularly low in the Barents and Kara seas (corresponding to the Norwegian and Russian Arctic) which had persistent south-westerly winds. I remember that winter for how unusually far north the jet stream often tracked as it headed towards Scandinavia. I have seen scientific research papers discussing the changes of Svalbard's climate, noting that much of the relatively sluggish warming at Svalbard between 1989 and 2004 could be explained synoptically, whereas the stronger warming from 2005 onwards was more down to sea ice feedbacks. Svalbard, and some nearby sites such as Vize Island and Franz Josef Land, saw an unusually cold winter in 2003/04, making 2005 an especially big step change for those regions.

Models coming together on HP locating just N or NE of the UK next weekend. Not as warm a setup as was being favoured before this weekend's runs. Then, we have GFS keen to 'promote' that to major high-latitude block (HLB) status, locating somewhere between NW and N of the UK for at least a few days. I've contemplated whether the MJO, moving slowly through P1-P2, could be behind that, but the composites aren't supportive (P1 supports a Euro High and P2 a mobile N. Atlantic flow across the UK & Scandinavia). It does cross P8 beforehand, which does lend support to HLB to the NW of the UK, but that crossing only takes 3 days so I can't see a lot of forcing propagating through from that. Seems to me, then, that GFS is seeing some manner of quick troposphere-level response (QTR) to the final warming of the polar vortex. It's a bit faster and 'sharper' with that than other guidance,including GEFS. Not seeing anything dramatic enough that I'd usually expect a QTR, though. The model has put out small batches of very HLB-dominated runs a few times in recent months, each time with no success, so I'm skeptical of what it's depicting for the final third of April. Especially the 12z... but what I contrast it would make to the opening two-thirds, if it did transpire!

The longer term GEFS 12z mean trend is for high pressure to drift from E / NE to W / NW which opens the possibility of a chilly and less settled late April with winds from the N / NE but that’s a long ways off and there’s plenty of pleasant anticyclonic weather for most of the u k before any changes I mentioned above.

The 12Z is an outlier...

Don’t know how many times I have to keep posting the same post....but here we go again for the 12z: No idea why the op run keeps going so far off course.

That's irrelevant from a meteorology perspective, and it certainly felt warmer than 16C where I was this afternoon

I think the cell to the north west of me has already died, all the strikes bar one seem to have been false strikes on lightning maps. And My phone battery died and I lost the time lapse but oh well. edit: seems to have a hail on radar but not electric aside from the single strike.

I hope that the gfs op is an outlier at 180 with it's easterly flow because the control is a beauty with +12 uppers encroaching the south.

Grass seed sown into last field of spring barley today in ideal conditions. A bit breezy with lots of sunshine and currently 14c