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I got this reply from the Met Office re the effect of the loss of aircraft movements, the link profided has already been seen on here. A few years ago I might have got a direct reply from the senior man. but they like me, are now sitting at home! Dear John, Thank you for your email. With reduced air travel, there is a knock on effect of reduce observations being involved in our modelling. However, aviation data is only one of many elements which are used in our modelling. An interesting article you can also include is https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts If you have any further queries or need additional information, please contact our Weather Desk on +44 (0)1392 88 5680 where one of our advisors will be happy to help. The number is open 24 hours a day, every day of the year and it will help us if you can quote the reference number given above. Kind regards, James Weather Desk Advisor

ECM tonight reminiscent of a summer heatwave pattern - all attempts to shift the high from the UK fail, and the high keeps reinforcing itself. However, being April, some chilly bits still getting stuck in the system from time to time, but aside a day or two early next week, it looks like a lot of t-shirt weather coming up on your daily act of exercise

ECM clusters don't have much time for the op's idea for D8-D10 (it dubiously puts it in a settled cluster though!) Even out to D12/D13, the settled members are well in the majority. Cluster 1 may have been cold 6 weeks ago, but likely to be warm by the end of April with a continental flow, even very warm.

Yesterday was what I can only describe as utter pish! Low cloud and drizzle, cool and clammy. Morphed into an absolutely beautiful evening so I took a turn around the garden deciding which of the smallish jobs I should tackle first. Too many to choose from, but I'll hopefully make a start today. Weather better this morning, sun trying to break through light cloud, very calm, temp hovering around the 6.5 - 7c mark. If it stays like this over the next few days I should get quite a bit done but I promise not to overdo it! Dreading the Easter break, plenty of touroids already here and I'd bet my last quid there's more on the way! I really hope there will be a police presence at the bridge soon to turn back holiday makers and camper vans. We really don't need them right now!

Looks good. With AAM very high and MJO going through 7/8/1 it certainly favours blocking in our neck of the woods, and certainly doesn’t point to unsettled taking over at the moment. Payback for the terrible floods of the winter.

My sympathies to you .My son with a kidney transplant 11 years ago means we are stuck at home but we are fortunate that he can get out to work on the farm with wide open spaces. We have to have supplies delivered in but here it just feels just like foot and mouth(cattle) from 2001. Have got the old post out from 2001 out again. First farm buisness hiccup will probably be us not being able to sell breeding heifers next week but an online sale using video looks as though it may happen later. Aurora Storm gave me a link to this professor who I think talks a lot of sense. https://twitter.com/devisridhar. Very cold overnight at 1.5c early am but overcast

Bit pish earlier but brightening up a bit now. The good weather recently has been very welcome. I can only imagine this lockdown situation with the endless wet weather we experienced earlier in the year! I'd go cycling regardless in the evenings but getting the kids outside and exercised is a daily requirement and this is making it so much easier. They are in a routine now and the first thing they ask in the morning is "where are we walking/cycling to today". How long their goodwill lasts is anyone's guess

Well yesterday's Arpege temperature forecast for today was a poor effort, probably down to the fact that the stiff breeze off the North Sea just didn't happen. So instead of the 16C forecast for here it reached a very respectable 20.7C. Another gorgeous day for early April. The weekend looking good too. I'm finding this lovely weather is helping to keep my spirits up.

Here's a few from the UKV for tomorrow:

Glorious day yesterday (well most of it) so glad we live on the edge of town and have plenty of quiet trails to walk on. I keep thinking how different this experience would be if I still lived in Cornwall. My last home was in Truro which was a great place to live at the time but you needed to drive for any decent walks. Loving all the moon pictures.

In previous posts back in the day the reasons why using 850mb temps to estimate surface temps in fraught with danger has been discussed. Without going through it all again essentially the reason is you have to have a fair idea of the airmass characteristic from the surface to 850mb and thus calculate the average lapse rate. Quite tricky but there are occasions when you can take a good punt at this and now is one. The air is quite dry in many regions, the south east in particular, so assuming a lapse rate near the DALR (dry adiabatic lapse rate 9.8C/km) is a fair bet Using yesterday's Hurstmonceux midday sounding as an example The 850mb height is 1574 metres and temp +7C Surface temp 22C So difference 15C and average lapse rate surface > 850mb 9.5C/km Which is very close to the DALR of 9.8C which is no big surprise as the sounding shows the temp profile very close to the DALR line But the added complication at this time of year, and particularly in the summer, is that you have to take into account surface heating and a supper adiabatic lapse rate in the lower boundary layer which can also be seen on the sounding. Ergo using a lapse rate close to the DALR and adding whatever you think the surface heating may be might get you pretty close

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight still cloud around the vicinity of the front in the north with perhaps some patchy rain, otherwise today will be sunny and quite warm. But not quite so warm in the areas under the cloud and in particular NE coastal areas where there is an onshore drift Still some rain around in the far NW otherwise a dry night but quite cloudy in the north Friday a sunny and warm day, including the NE, with perhaps the odd shower in the NW For most places another warm and sunny day on Saturday but fronts associated with the shallow low tracking south east will bring cloud and some rain to NW regions As discussed in previous posts the low has now briefly phased with a lobe of the tpv to the north as the the subtropical high amplifies to the west of Ireland. Another warm day for England and Wales albeit some showery rain in western regions courtesy of a weakening occlusion, but much cooler in N./ Ireland and Scotland By Monday the high has ridged NE over the UK with the low becoming a cut off feature west of Iberia resulting in a much cooler day for all with maybe the odd shower

Good evening. I hope everyone is safe and staying well. This weekend could well produce some of our first proper diurnally homegrown thundery showers of the season, with just about anywhere being in the game, albeit slightly favoured for more central southern and Eastern areas, as possible sea breeze convergence may play a part, with a gradual westerly element taking hold on Saturday. Sunday could be a day of very slow movers as a dartboard upper low zips south. So in a nutshell: Tomorrow - Western and North-western areas including wales is your best chance Saturday - Midlands, South-West (Cornish convergence) Central and eastern parts Sunday - Midlands and Southern England With lockdown in place, it’s a perfect opportunity to simply watch developments from your window or garden if you have one. All the best EES91

Absolutely amazing weather! Been sunny here all week! Temps have been climbing too, currently 21 degrees and with light winds it feels much warmer! Makes this lockdown seem like a slightly better situation! I can enjoy the garden my gazebo is up and it’s bbq time! I miss the world so much, but this weather helps

Luminous bright mist up here, 9C. A gentle soft morning so far.

G'Day folks...Today's GFS 00Z is another stonker! But, please Mr God, don't let it all go to pot, like in 1980...?

Glorious autumn weather in Western Australia which will continue into Easter. It may be so good the authorities will close the beaches in Perth to avoid crowds and the health risk ( beach bans have been in place in other states for a while ). Perth's forecast temperature is 36c on Good Friday and 37c on Saturday ( average is 26c ). The April record is 37.6c in 1910 so that'll be something to watch. Last Easter Western Australia had its first April snow in 49 years - so quite a contrast.

Took a midweek break from working from home and got out on the Fife Coastal Path. So grateful to have it on my doorstep. The weather cooperated too with the warmest day of the year locally at 16c.

ENHANCED Risk tonight across deep South TX with 2% tornado risk, 30% wind and 30% hatched hail. Already some severe storms about around San Antonio, TX, but generally messy at the moment. HRRR shows generally a line of severe storms marching East to the coast these next few hours.

This is one of the best starts to April I can ever remember. A really long stretch of temperatures that wouldn’t be out of place in late May or June. I’d happily bottle this for the rest of the summer, low 20s is feeling fantastic.

Longing to get out for a walk and enjoy the weather. But son is triply immune suppressed, wife his main carer. Not allowed to go out and it looks like this will be the case for many weeks to come

Back to grey skies/breeze/drizzle..............Pish basically

Moving on with the gfs and a brief summation of midweek Another trough in the NW tracks east and phases with the cut off low near Iberia which briefly interrupts the subtropical high dominance Still remaining generally dry but with some more unsettled weather encroaching from the west

Brandon Clement's on a nice cell just North of Poplar bluff. Live Storm Chasing LIVESTORMCHASING.COM Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand. NWS radar image loop of Base Reflectivity from Paducah, KY RADAR.WEATHER.GOV Latest weather radar images from the National Weather Service

A day of two seasons. Morning was gorgeous with plenty sunshine, light winds and a new high temperature for the year for here at 16c - a summers day. Then autumn arrived abruptly in the early afternoon with cloud rapidly rolling in leading to a wet evening and plummeting temperatures - was 16c just after noon but was down to 5c at teatime. Currently 3.9c so its going to be a cold night.

Took a slightly different route tonight around Harlaw and Threipmuir reservoirs. Another beautiful evening but with added cloud. Actually saw more deer than people tonight!

FWIW BBC have 26 for London on Sat

Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. A small chance for us up here I suppose

15.9°C and not particularly sunny, but not overly cloudy either. Frog spawn ready to burst:

Very nice temperatures for April 11th. And some on that eastern coast will be going from 8-9 degrees today to 22 degrees Saturday. Feels like April temperatures are getting warmer. Just 2 years ago it reached 29 degrees on 19th April.

First time I’ve heard this word being used this year. “Sunday will have some sunshine but cloud will tend to develop, bringing the chance of showers or even thunderstorms” Let’s hope it materialises!

Top temperature recorded today appears to be Wiggonholt 24.4. Certainly a very warm day for the time of year across the south. Models underdid the temperatures today by a solid 2-3c, the only one that was close was GEM (which tends to be a little on the warm side in these set-ups usually). GEM suggests quite a small area again of 24c tomorrow and the quite a large area on Saturday. Would probably suggests a 25c is probable in the next 48hrs.

Got some cumulus bubbling up here today. Nice crispy ones too. Nothing says about any risk here but I guess you can’t completely rule out a rogue rumble or two...

Miserable day as expected in Edinburgh. For tomorrow, GFS is showing temperatures struggling to rise above 7-8C in a very localised area near Edinburgh on the map, very strange.

I haven't seen any virus threads - but I just discovered Twitter and am now finding it makes me reallyreallyREALLY crabbit so maybe am best staying on the weather one

Just reached 22.3C here - the warmest day of the year so far. Light Easterly wind - perfect conditions..

Confirmed scoring for all entries, EWP contest, March 2020 and annual update >> all scores in order except that our two normals and consensus are shown on same line with ranks >> >> March scores show late penalties (^ for each day late) beside forecaster name, explains occasional jogs in forecast error (e.g. 22nd 23rd) >> >> annual rankings for those active in contest in March and/or April only (after top 40) >> Rank __ Forecaster _______ Fcst ___ Score _______ Annual __ Forecaster ___ Total score, pos Feb 2020 01 _____ Reef ___________57.0 ___ 10.00 __________01 __ Emmett Garland ____34.26 ______2nd 02 _____ The PIT ________ 60.0 ____ 9.83 __________02 __ Reef _____________ 34.18 ______3rd 03 _____ Roger J Smith ___ 56.2 ____ 9.66__________ 03 __ Twilight ___________ 27.55 ______T-14th 04 _____ SLEETY ________54.0 ____ 9.48__________ 04 __ Robbie Garrett _____ 27.44 ______1st 05 _____ February1978 ____63.0 ____ 9.31__________ 05 __ DR(S)NO _________26.90 ______5th (06) _______ 1990-19 avg __64.3 ____ 9.23__________(03)__ 1990-2019 avg ____ 29.52 _____10th 06 _____ Mulzy __________ 65.0 ____ 9.14__________ 06 __ Godber 1 _________ 26.53 ______4th 07 _____ Thundery Wintry Sh 65.2 ____8.97__________ 07 __ mb018538 ________ 26.21 ______7th 08 _____ Emmett Garland __ 66.0 ____8.80__________ 08 __ Don ______________26.15 ______8th 09 _____ Twilight _________ 50.0 ____ 8.62__________ 09 __ Timmytour ________ 25.70 _____11th 10 _____ B87 ____________ 50.0 (2) _ 8.54__________ 10 __ Kentspur __________25.65 ____T-14th 11 _____ daniel* __________67.0 ____ 8.28__________ 11 __ Thundery Wintry Shwr 25.08 _____27th 12 _____ Carl46Wrexham __ 49.0 ____ 8.11__________ 12 __ Stationary Front ____ 25.07 ______6th 13 _____ Blast from the Past_ 68.0 ____7.93__________ 13 __ Jonboy ___________ 25.01 _____13th 14 _____ Senior Ridge _____ 68.0 (2) _ 7.86__________ 14 __ Mulzy ____________ 24.91 _____30st 15 _____ DAVID SNOW ____ 69.0 ____7.59__________ 15 __ Dog Toffee ________ 24.61 _____19th 16 _____ CheesepuffScott __ 69.2 ____ 7.42__________ 16 __ Roger J Smith _____ 23.88 _____35th 17 _____ JeffC ___________ 70.0 ____ 7.24__________ 17 __ General Cluster ____ 23.43 _____22nd 18 _____ Dog Toffee _______70.1 ____ 7.07__________ 18 __ Weather 26 _______ 23.06 _____ 26th 19 _____ Weather26 _______45.0 ____ 6.90__________ 19 __ daniel *___________ 22.91 _____34th (20) ______ 1981-2010 avg _ 71.5 ____ 6.81__________(14)__ 1981-2010 avg_____ 24.93 _____19th 20 _____ Kentspur ________ 72.0 ____ 6.72__________ 20 __ J10 ______________ 22.40 ______6th 21 _____ General Cluster ___75.0 ____ 6.55 __________21 __ JeffC _____________ 22.25 _____33rd 22 _____ Polar Gael _______ 75.5 ____ 6.21 _________ 22 __ Midlands Ice Age ____22.22 _____16th 23 _____ Jonboy^^ ________ 75.0 (2) __6.07 _________ 23 __ DAVID SNOW ______ 21.79 _____36th 24 _____ Timmytour _______ 77.0 ____ 6.04 __________24 __ snowray ___________21.70 _____ 24th 25 _____ seaside60 _______ 77.0 (2) __5.96 __________25 __ Bobd29 ___________ 20.71 _____ 20th 26 _____ Feb1991Blizzard __ 39.0 ____ 5.69 __________26 __ SLEETY __________ 20.37 _____ 42nd 27 _____ Don ____________ 78.0 ____ 5.52 __________ 27 __ Born From the Void _ 20.29 _____ 29th 28 _____ snowray _________ 79.0 ____5.34 __________ 28 __ Radiating Dendrite __ 19.83 _____ 10th (entered 2 D J) 29 _____ DiagonalRedLine __ 80.0 ____5.17 __________ 29 __ brmbrmcar ________ 19.78 _____ T-17th (T29) ___consensus _______80.0 ____5.17 __________(15) __ consensus _______24.89 _____ 11th 30 _____ DR(S)NO ________ 80.0 (2)__5.09 __________ 30 __ Mr Maunder _______19.46 _____ 31st 31 _____ mb018538 _______ 80.0 (3)__5.01 __________ 31 __ syed2878 _________19.41 _____ 21st 32 _____ Norrance ________ 80.0 (4)__4.93 __________ 32 __ Mr TOAD _________ 18.99 _____ 31st (entered 3 D J F) 33 _____BornFromTheVoid^^_80.0 (5)__4.45__________ 33 __ February1978 _____ 18.74 _____ 52nd (entered 3 J F M) 34 _____ Godber 1 _________82.0 ____4.31 __________ 34 __ Kirkcaldy Weather __18.71 _____ 25th 35 _____ Mr Maunder ______ 84.0 ____4.14 __________ 35 __ Relativistic ________18.23 _____T-17th (entered 3 D J F) 36 _____ Midlands Ice Age __ 80.6 ____3.96 __________ 36 __ seaside60 ________ 18.22 _____ 39th 37 _____ProlongedSnowLover 87.0 ____3.79 __________ 37 __ Virtualsphere ______17.99 _____ 32nd 38 _____ SteveB __________ 88.0 ____3.62 __________ 38 __ SteveB ___________17.61 _____ 37th 39 _____ Stationary Front ___89.0 ____3.45 __________ 39 __ BlastFromThePast __17.52 _____ 47th 40 _____ Bobd29 _________ 90.0 ____3.28 __________ 40 __ The PIT __________ 17.44 _____ 70th 41 _____ summer blizzard __ 90.0 (2)__3.20 __________ 41 __ davehsug _________ 17.09 _____ 28th 42 _____ weather-history ___ 90.0 (3)__3.12 __________ 43 __ Feb1991Blizzard ___ 13.90 _____ 74th 43 _____ virtualsphere _____ 92.0 ____2.76 __________ 44 __ProlongedSnowLover _13.79 ____T-45th (entered 2 F M ) 44 _____ Pegg24 _________ 95.0 ____2.58 __________ 45 __ Neil N ____________ 13.40 _____ 38th 45 _____ Kirkcaldy Weather _96.6 ____2.41 ___________46 __ CheesepuffScott ___ 13.15 _____ 90th 46 _____ Joneseye _______ 98.0 ____2.24 ___________ 47 __ Carl46Wrexham ____13.09 _____ 95th 47 _____ syed2878 ______ 100.0 ____2.07 ___________ 48 __ Norrance _________ 13.06 _____ 65th 48 _____ J10 ___________ 100.0 (2)__1.99 ___________49 __ Polar Gael ________ 12.66 _____ 83rd 49 _____ brmbrmcar ______110.0 ____1.55 ___________50 __ weather-history ____ 12.58 _____ 51st 50 _____ ThundersnowDays^ 102.0____1.52 __________ 52 __ Stargazer _________11.98 _____40th (ent 2 D J, has returned Apr) 51 _____ stewfox^ ________110.0 (2)__1.27 __________ 53 __ Senior Ridge ______ 11.24 ____107th (entered 2 F M) 52 _____ Let It Snow! _____ 125.0 ____1.03 __________ 54 __ Pegg24 __________ 11.21 _____ 60th (entered 3 D F M) 53 _____ davehsug^_______111.0 ____1.00 __________ 55 __ DiagonalRedLine __ 10.53 _____ 93rd (entered 3 D F M) 54 _____ shillitocet2 ______130.0 ____ 0.86 __________ 57 __ Joneseye ________ 10.24 _____ 44th (entered 3 D J M) 55 _____ Robbie Garrett ___144.0 ____ 0.69 __________58 __ Let It Snow! _______ 10.06 _____ 57th (entered 3 J F M) 56 _____ I Rem Atl 252 ___ 155.0 ____ 0.52 __________ 60 __ shillitocet2 _________ 9.70 _____ 60th (entered 3 D F M) 57 _____ Neil N _________ 199.0 ____ 0.35 __________ 66 __ I Rem Atl 252 _______9.22 _____ 59th (entered 3 D J M) 58 _____ Lettucing Gutted __200.0 ____0.17 __________ 69 __ B87 ______________ 8.71 _____130st (entered 2, F M ) 59 _____ Thundershine ___ 550.0 ____ 0.00 __________ 76 __ stewfox ___________ 7.91 _____ 81st --- ____________________________________________109 __ summer blizzard ___ 3.20 _____ --- (first entry March) --- ____________________________________________122 __ ThunderSnowDays __ 1.52 _____ --- (first entry March) --- ____________________________________________132 __ Lettucing Gutted ____ 0.33 _____ 131st --- ____________________________________________ 135 __ Thundershine ______ 0.00 _____ --- (first entry March) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In the above table, the number of contests entered does not include April. A note is only made for those with fewer than four entries (D J F M). After 40th place, missing from annual ranks are those who were not active in March or April. This explains the difference in rank numbering after 40th place. (Pinball Wizard 42nd entered only D J) etc _ 16.74 points

Bit of a contrast to yesterday. Gone are the blue skies and sunshine, replaced by cool and grey cloudy skies courtesy of an easterly breeze. About 9c cooler than yesterday at 7c!

Hmmm Not so sure about the quiet pattern Sunday looks like a borderline High Risk to me.

I thought the ECM looked a bit iffy towards 192-240 this morning. Probably because it’s an outlier: Outlook still looks pretty decent on the whole.

Windy.com is showing something for Sunday

Reports of 4.5 inch hail Brett has just said

Could be,anyway,just realized that we are posting in the wrong thread,going over to the tornado threat thread.

Just realized that i was posting in the N American thread anyway,Meridian cell is T-warned now. Brett Adair is heading south to intercept those two cells. Live Storm Chasing LIVESTORMCHASING.COM Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand. NWS radar image loop of Base Reflectivity from Birmingham, AL RADAR.WEATHER.GOV Latest weather radar images from the National Weather Service

ECM says....yes, I will also build in the third high pressure system in a row. Chilly on Monday as cold air circulates round the high, before the cold feed is cut off and it turns increasingly warm through the week. Probably back into the high teens/low 20s by later in the week. April has been sensational after such a terrible winter.