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Showing content with the highest reputation on 06/04/20 in Posts
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It's a Super Stonker!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! T+24: T+96: T+168: T+240: T+312: T+384:9 points
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12z GFS is a rip snorter - high pressure all the way. Easter still causing headaches, likely to be more unsettled with some rain around though.9 points
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Long range forecast from the met office favours low heights to our north right through the summer at the moment, which would usually translate to a better summer here. Also shows below average ppn and higher temps. Fingers crossed.7 points
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The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight The band of rain associated with the cold front will clear eastern England this morning leaving a day of sunny intervals and showers, the latter particularly concentrated over N. Ireland and western Scotland. Less windy than yesterday Still the odd shower in the NW tonight but essentially a clear night with just the odd spot of frost by morning A warm and sunny day on Tuesday but quite breezy in the NW where cloud will encroach with some rain by evening as systems continue to track NE to the west of Ireland A very warm day for England and Wales on Wednesday but much cooler over Scotland where the weakening cold front will bring some patchy rain. The strong winds here will slowly abate Things get a tad more complex on Thursday as a weak trough slips south east bringing some patchy rain to the south where it is still warm with the old front stationary in the north By Friday the UK is under a shallow low pressure area with sundry fronts littered about so a very varied regional scenario which I will not attempt to detail7 points
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I got a day's work on a small hill well inland from here - I saw no-one all day Some hairy maggots: Colourful mosses: A rainbow that neatly lined up with the skyline: Long exposure water: that involved wet feet, not sure it was worth it and these are the tops of a couple of the north Strathfarrer ridge, still really snowy6 points
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Thanks for all the entries. If you enter now, you're too late - but we'll have more comps over the coming days and weeks, all going into a leaderboard to eventually crown the overall winner. I'll keep the thread updated with the latest daily maxes each day.5 points
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I might have not the slightest iota of interest in long-range exercises in pattern-matching (they simply do not work!) but, in the nearer, more reliable time-frame, I do find tomorrow's prospects quite encouraging:.. GFS 06Z:5 points
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Ooooo - big hail. Chunky and the size of marrowfat peas. 11.5/9C.4 points
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The qustion from this point is what about the weekend? The gfs this morning takes the deep low south of Greenland, it has it 10mb lower than Exeter and tracks it east south of Iceland as it fills bringing rain and strong winds to the north Sat/Sun as it passes. But in it's wake another low undergoes rapid cyclogenisis in the Denmark Strait and a front associated with this will further rain and strong winds to Scotland early Monday. So very much a N/S split but of course just one model in an area of unreliable detail4 points
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It’s a big outlier. ECM is better tonight - hiccup over Easter, but it quickly turns settled and warmer through the week.3 points
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I was out and about in the car this afternoon (first time for a week), essential?, depends on how you look at it. I went and picked up a trailer pre-loaded with fence posts & rails and took the trailer back afterwards. All done with minimal contact, maintaining social distancing rules at the timber merchant. It's a job that needs done, I have time to do it, and the two boys are going to learn how to build a fence. Anyway, on the way there and back, twice, I saw very few cars on the road. Not particularly busy toads normally, but it was very noticeably quieter. In fact I saw at least two to three times as many people out for a walk along the roads, or cyclists, than I saw cars. Very unusual, especially for a Monday.3 points
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Och well, a none-too-lovely end to the GFS 06Z; but it would hasten the eventual demise of the tPV, perhaps...? Though all that HLB wouldn't necessarily bode too well, for the Arctic ice, however...?3 points
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Still no agreement between the ext anomalies this morning regarding the alignment of the tpv and amplification, if any, of the subtropical high over the UK and Europe. But forebye this, with positive anomalies in this area the outlook still portends a quieter spell of not unpleasant weather with the detail to be sorted by the det runs3 points
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Very mild evening out there. Still 17°C at almost 10pm. Lovely!3 points
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Lol check the date that he posted that! Way back to the 24th March so no I’d say pretty much all are searching for something warm now. Well I no I am and most of this week is looking pretty nice I’d say2 points
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Ecm looks almost certain to be an outlier compared to other models!gfs ensembles are rock solid for the continuation of this dry weather!!not to say ecm is wrong but highly unlikely!!!amazing weather so far!!came back from egypt on the 15th of march and i dont think i have seen single drop of rain since!!!grass is starting to turn brown as well!!2 points
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Interesting that the models now show the chance of rain on Wednesday afternoon/evening: Details still very sketchy, but looks like some rain will be around for Easter. After then we aren’t really sure. ECM op again wants to blow up low pressure across the UK, but for the 3rd run in a row is an outlier: Lots to play for.2 points
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Isn't it just! I find you can always smell a season change at night... and it's one of those nights.2 points
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Yes I haven't been looking at the longer term background signals either recently, not many posts or comments as might be expected in this respect. The PV looks like having a long slow dying death this year, rather than a sudden end, which might help prevent northern blocking from developing in late Spring, but things could change on this front. Will take a look at ENSO, a few weeks there were hints of a summer la Nina.. will see if that's still the case. Back to the here and now, some excellent spring weather on the cards for many, sunshine and dry weather predominating Tuesday - Friday in the south and east with some early sustained warmth, low 20's expected in SE for next 5 days, often struggle to see such conditions in June. Further north and west, rain tonight, cooler tomorrow, pleasant temps and dry weather returning Tuesday - Thursday but more cloud. Easter period looks quite uncertain, signals that a shallow trough will move down from the NW, bringing cooler damper cloudier weather - poor timing. Longer term heights look likely to build back in again, sustaining what will have been a good 4-5 weeks of very benign dry weather. I've said many times before how mother nature often flips from sustained wet to notable lengthy dry and vice-versa, and we are seeing this again now... but for how long, a blip?2 points
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8.9c to the 5th 2.5c above the 61 to 90 average 1.3c above the 81 to 10 average __________________________ Current high this month 8.9c to the 5th Current low this month 6.2c to the 1st1 point
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First 20 of the year here too, with 20.4 °C the max. In all honesty though it didn't really feel it thanks to the wind and quite limited sun. In terms of feel while sitting in the garden with a book, the unbroken sunshine and light winds of two weeks ago definitely felt warmer. Excellent for walking, though -- the first time I've broken 10,000 steps during the lockdown, with about 7,500 of those in the garden! (1,500 or so indoors and around 1,000 going to post a birthday card as my permitted public exercise session.) The forecast suggests lighter winds coming up, and I'm looking forward to that. A little light gardening may even be on the cards!1 point
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Hit 19c here late afternoon. Bit cloudy earlier though but by 3pm onwards it was beautiful.1 point
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First post on here, gonna give this thread a little go. A warm day today, with temperatures around 20c possible in the SE. Overnight into Monday morning some frontal rain will start to push in from the west This leaves Monday's temperatures peaking at 17 around London. Some showers might develop behind the frontal rain that passed by from the morning.1 point
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How nice to feel a warm wind! Makes a change! A bit brisk to say the least, might have to go and rescue my laundry in a bit! Also trying to get newly purchased anemometer to talk to weather base station. Not happening yet! GGGGGGRRRRRRR! Temp currently a balmy 17.2c according one weather station. I feel that's a bit ambitious! But it is nice!1 point
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I wouldnt mind it to be honest, some rain in between the warmth is perfect for growing plants!1 point
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You can always block my posts, many do, if it's causing you a problem1 point
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Cracking outlook! Lots of warmth and sunshine on the way next week, hopefully the end of the desperate snow chasing for the season! High pressure looks close by for the bulk of April. Enjoy sensibly all and stay safe1 point
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A bit milder here too at 8c.Mostly dull but dry. As I have said before the mountains especially to the west will carry long lasting scars of the very stormy snowy February they had. Can only just see the mountains to the west in the middle of this photo. Ben Wyvis too will have scars of snow well into the summer.1 point
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Heather burning around my parts (no joke intended *snigger*) at the beginning of the week. Remarkable how we've gone from the most waterlogged ground in memory to wildfires in less than three weeks.1 point
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As promised above the first early report from New York has been released - 699 patients involved in a surgery attached to entrance to a hospital. (Sounds like a super triage system). After an initial evaluation on URT and LRT, the doctor in charge (remotely?) decided whether the patients were sufficiently ill to warrant entering the trial. This was an administration of (for 5 days) 2 X 200mg of hydrochloroquinone, 1 X 200Mg 0f Zinc Phosphate, and an antibiotic (ZPAC) at 500Mg for day 1 and then 250Mg for the remaining 4 days. After the 5 days, 1 patient had to be sent onwards to IC, 3 were continued on the treatment on the contained ward and the rest were released back home. No deaths were reported, after 14 days. A paper has been issued, but the official report is still being prepared. Now it was not accompanied by a blind trial, and it was strictly administered on a 'need of use' basis. The suggestion was that it reduced the hospital stay by a half compared to a similar sample of patients reported from Wuhan, and if administered early enough it appeared to be capable of avoiding many deaths. The cost of the treatment was about 20 dollars per person. On this basis the FDA in the US yesterday authorised its use for the treatment of Corvid-19. The French and Belgium trials are progressing similarly, and will soon be approved officially. Now, I know there are a lot of unanswered questions about the 'trial', but the claims are that there were a reasonable mixture of the sexes, and the age ranges gave at least 33% in the over 60 range. He is at pains to state it is not a cure, but can halve the average stay in hospital - a major benefit for over-run staff. So the question is why has the UK stopped g.p,'s and doctors from administering the drugs to clearly Covid-19 probable patients, and why when the patient has been accepted for hospital treatment and assessed do they not automatically prescribe the drugs? Any side effects are well known and they can predict the patients that are at risk - they (or chemists) have always done this when prescribing for Malaria. So why do the Medical chiefs in this country not take the quickest and least costly way of reducing the size of the effect and impact upon our hospitals? With little risk to life and at a minute cost, surely it is worth at least offering it to the patients?. MIA1 point