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Showing content with the highest reputation on 31/03/20 in all areas

  1. 12 points
    Following a useless fruitless waste of time and energy hunt for cold / snow during the last 4 months, I’m warming to the idea of what the ECM 12z operational is showing!
  2. 8 points
    Well, it's the last day of Smarch, and all is set fair for a stonking day on the farm! Okay, so it'll nae what you call 'hot'...but polytunnels do have their own micro-climate! Ooh aaargh!
  3. 8 points
    Hey all. A warm pattern is starting to show for next week, meaning that warmer and perhaps more settled weather is possible, with temperatures in the high teens likely. Some warmer and more settled weather could be possible from Easter Sunday onwards... if this verifies!
  4. 6 points
    I like the GFS 12Z at T+384! A nice Atlantic trough and HP over Europe...Nailded!
  5. 6 points
    I was so excited to get back out to the outsidey world today: Back to work next week...apart from seeing the kids I'll be back to more or less normal. Work, food shop, walk dogs, eat food, watch TV, spam NW, Facebook and sleep.
  6. 6 points
    This is where the use of the Anomaly charts comes into play. When they are consistent, they are very accurate in determining the most likely pattern of ridging and troughing. Time and time again this winter when some operational runs hint at an Easterly, getting peoples hopes up, there was no anomaly support, therefore the chances of them becoming reality were very low. View the Anomaly charts, then match the nearest operational GFS or/and ECM for the 6-14 day period. Doing this you CAN place faith in day 10 charts to a degree. You can spot a genuine cold spell or a genuine warm spell, of course you cannot determine the detail but you can get a good idea.
  7. 5 points
    Loads of things, mate, and many that I'd previously never even heard of! But at least I now have my 'Key Worker' letter...Just in case the local constabulary might want to put me in gaol..? And it was a stonker: partly cloudy this morning; unbroken sunshine for the afternoon...Tomorrow? Good enough for me...probably!
  8. 4 points
    Duns Co-op. My local is in Biggar. At least there's a system at yours - it was still a free for all in Biggar on Saturday. The glamour.
  9. 4 points
    Hardly a breath of movement, grey with a smattering of blue gaps, 8.9C max. Much like life at the moment.
  10. 4 points
  11. 4 points
    Needless to say developments under the new Atlantic trough with the ecm are completely different, albeit not significantly regarding the UK weather for the weekend
  12. 4 points
    Over Friday and Saturday the aforementioned trough continues south and phases with the troughs further south which results in sundry surface low centers in the Atlantic with the main one south of Iceland. But at the same time the subtropical high amplifies so initially only N. Ireland and Scotland remain under the influence of unsettled weather But as can be seen, according to the gfs further developments occur under the umbrella of the main trough with a surface low to the south west of Ireland by midday Sunday qith some quite warm air adverted into much of the UK Best left here I feel
  13. 4 points
    The end of this week will se a brief interruption of the high pressure dominance By midday tomorrow a trough that has broken away from the tpv is over Iceland and from there will track east The cold front associated with the latter starts to move south across Scotland accompanied by rain and a strengthening wind. Further south fairly cloudy but dry Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the Iceland trough duly moves east and merges with the tpv resulting in the surface wind veering over the UK with further fronts tracking south in the circulation. This introduces colder air in the North with snow showers in Scotland and perhaps gales along western coasts, But note yet another breakaway trough moving south along the eastern flank of the intense high pressure over Greenland
  14. 3 points
    First 70F of the year if the 12z runs are correct.
  15. 3 points
    I think life just now is like a total eclipse. Dead weird
  16. 3 points
    I've neen using them for 7 or 8 years, they have to be used with great care and one has to remember that they are for 500 mb. What they do help with though, as mushy commented, is the general pattern at that level. This can give a good idea of the type of weather in general, settled, unsettled, changeable, warm, cold etc. The suggestion by mushy of, IF they are consistent over a few days and with one another of trying to match the synoptic charts in the 6-10 day period is also worth looking at. Like I say used with great care they can be a big help in what the overall weather pattern is likely to be. I did show some statistics several years ago comparing them with EC and GFS at the 10 day range. They were almost without fail much better than the synoptic charts. A value of 70% generally winter and summer compared to values below 40-50% most times with the synoptic patterns. Areas of poor return are 1) Lack of continuity over several days and with one another 2) the Northern Hemisphere change over periods; winter to summer and summer to winter 30 The Atlantic hurricane season Good luck
  17. 3 points
    Lovely photos there:) I always find polar sourced air, or anything from around that vicinity, to be the 'best' air if there can be such a thing. Allergies and the like always feel better when it is overhead. And now with travel so reduced, the air just seems so much cleaner anyway. A mix of clouds and sunshine above Surbiton today, although according to Carol on BBC this morning it could clear to blue skies and sunshine this afternoon. Fingers crossed, it was great sitting out in the sun last week to top up on vitamin D. I hope everyone is keeping well.
  18. 3 points
    In the ext period it still appears to be whether the re-alignment of the tpv, particularly the trough in the north west Atlantic will allow any signifant amplification of the Subtropical high in the east. At the moment the jury is still out on that
  19. 3 points
    Morning campers! Weather has been calm, sunny and dry since Thursday but absolutely baltic! Those stiff breezes fairly pack a wind chill! Very calm today, overcast and light drizzle. I'm told we may get a dusting of snow by the weekend. I doubt that, maybe the mountain tops but not at low levels. A pleasant if chilly constitutional on Sunday with a friend and her dog, maintaining a discrete distance off course! Might do a little light work in the garden, cover over raised beds to warm them a little prior to planting. Have to say I'm enjoying the quiet up here now. Normally things would be picking up now in time for Easter with plenty cars and dreaded camper vans around. The added bonus is I can hear the wee birdies singing now. I can stand in the garden for a good ten, fifteen minutes before a car passes. Then wait another thirty minutes until the next! It's a wee bit busier this morning as obviously there are people on their way to work, but after nine it really is so quiet. Other than that I see the occasional neighbour and the postie and that's my lot till I make the weekly trip for groceries. Life sure is exciting these days, eh? No, not exciting, just worrying.
  20. 3 points
    Air quality was absolutely superb today, with excellent visibility.
  21. 3 points
    Well for someone who LOVES snow and longs for it all winter, I am now desperate for the opposite and some lovely Spring and Summer weather! Last week was amazing and I even caught the sun, despite the cool-ish air!! I see on the Meto that Sunday has a southerly flow and despite it still being breezy and cloudy, will at least be a bit warmer with 14c atm.... obviously subject to change at this stage!!xx
  22. 3 points
    Still looking good for a warm-up, should the GFS 12Z be anywhere near correct:
  23. 2 points
    Thought we needed some thing light hearted. This thread is for general nonsense. Please start each post with IF< WHEN WHY WHAT. Hope you enjoy! D<3
  24. 2 points
  25. 2 points
    IF< WHEN WHY WHAT. Good on ya, Dami. I will definitely be contributing to this Thread. I see my role as a Husband, to shield my Wife from all this grim CV News. I really can't abide by all this multiple Posting of numbers of infected and deaths. I find it all so negative. Colette has a fragile enough psyche as it is. I have a hell of a job stopping her continually obsessing over the News, at the moment. I'm off to have an early Night now, so I can watch some non-related CV TV with Colette. More power to your elbow, Dami! Very best wishes to yourself and your Family, Dami. Tom anf ColetteSE12.
  26. 2 points
    Just noting that I edited my CET posted earlier to 10.6, think it's going to get rather mild.
  27. 2 points
    I was talking to some forestry guys today for whom virtually nothing has changed, unsociable bunch they are. What surprises me is how we are accepting such huge changes.
  28. 2 points
    Nice rainfall recovery in Australia this year after the driest year on record last year, as IOD plummets to neutral. Especially pleasing for drought ravaged agricultural farmlands of New South Wales. There has been no temperature extremes either in the last two months after a wild ride of records during the first half of summer.
  29. 2 points
    A simplistic overview of the NH anomaly charts from the EC weeklies update for the last half of April would simply be that the tpv alignment is not far away from what is being indicated in the ext period at the moment The difference being that the Atlantic has withdrawn a tad and the subtropical has thus got more traction in the east. Hopefully this portends a more settled and drier spell
  30. 2 points
    Hang on a sec NOAA= Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV ECMWF-GFS= http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
  31. 2 points
    Nah, we're not jinxed It's just that the current long wave pattern allows these miniscule, insignificant looking lows to cause a cold looking scenario to collapse. If the atmosphere, generally, was conducive then that low wouldn't be there to scupper a cold evolution OR that low wouldn't have behaved a certain way Hopefully late November to late Feb 20-21's long wave pattern will allow cold patterns to evolve with no drama as in many instances between 2009-2013. However, 'something' is happening to make the long wave pattern unfriendly to colder patterns/scenarios - even the northern blocking of July 2019 still ended up with a very warm month for England and Wales
  32. 2 points
    6.8c the 30th 1.0c above the 61 to 90 average 0.3c above the 81 to 10 average _____________________________ Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th Current low this month 4.8c the 5th
  33. 2 points
    Yes thanks for explaining how one tiny low can ruin everything regarding the Northerly,are we jinxed regarding cold weather . However last year Northern Blocking controlled much of the first couple of months of summer ,like it was laughing at us ! as obviously it’s no good having these set-ups in the summer months.! Going forward I hope we have a long dry summer so everyone can enjoy being out and about hopefully by the summer months.
  34. 2 points
    Easter Saturday according to GFS I wouldn't normally post a single FI chart but this has been appearing a lot on GFS recently. Might be something, might be nothing at that range of course
  35. 2 points
    The preamble and detail for the weekend from this evening's ecm is not hugely different to this morning so I wont run through it all again except to say by Monday the frontal rain is a tad further east, but that's too far away to worry about that detail
  36. 2 points
    As it appears likely that the month will finish in the 6's this might surprise you, but only one other year has ever seen its first three months in the 6's. That was 1846 (6.3, 6.4, 6.1) which later had the warmest June. If the month finishes on 6.4 or 6.3 it will also be the first time since 1783 when a year has started off in such a narrow range (that time it was 3.4, 3.3, 3.3). The Maunder (with its rounded off means) produced the only year with identical Jan, Feb and Mar CET when 1668 had three 5.0 values to start. In third place for least range among Jan, Feb and Mar CET values is 0.2 from 1764 which had 3.7, 3.8 and 3.9 tied with 1899 which started out 4.9, 5.1 and 5.1. If March is corrected down to 6.4 or lower, then the range from November to March of only 0.6 will tie the current record 0.6 from 1698-99 (3.4 to 4.0). The second lowest such range for these five months is 0.9 in 1787-88 (3.6 to 4.5) which was tied in 1922-23 (5.6 to 6.5). This extended winter can take the dubious prize of second place with a March CET of 6.5 or 6.6.
  37. 2 points
    6.8c the 29th 1.1c above the 61 to 90 average 0.3c above the 81 to 10 average _____________________________ Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th Current low this month 4.8c the 5th
  38. 1 point
    just what's needed now, kills viruses etc
  39. 1 point
    @Midlands Ice Age Rare ozone hole opens over Arctic — and it’s big WWW.NATURE.COM Cold temperatures and a strong polar vortex allowed chemicals to gnaw away at the protective ozone layer in the north. Cold...
  40. 1 point
    Well, it didn't happen. Instructor couldn't get her microphone/mouthpiece thingy working, even her hubby came and had a fiddle with it. We could see her perfectly well though. Anyway, had a workout moving furniture around so we had room, then another workout putting it all back again. Decided to go for a power walk in the park later. Spag bol with extra garlic for tea.
  41. 1 point
  42. 1 point
    Heavens-Above WWW.HEAVENS-ABOVE.COM Satellite predictions and other astronomical data customised for your location. They have a section just for Starlink. Also this one Satellite Observing Opportunities - In-The-Sky.org IN-THE-SKY.ORG Search for times when satellites will be visible from any observing location on Earth. Already set up bar for the location which is set for where I am, so just change it to wherever you are.
  43. 1 point
    However the catch of positive AO is high export so all that ice which does thicken and gets very cold leaves through fram Stright, February and March has been very strong in that aspect. Also there is a trend a positive AO tends to lead to lower ice extent in summer for this reason. The best conditions for Arctic ice in winter is high pressure but only a basin high so not huge warm ridges from the Pacific or the Atlantic which brings alot of warmth in from lower latitudes. Also high pressure tends to lead to thicker and more fast ice on the Siberian side of the basin, there is not much of that this year because of the constant winds blowing in from the landmasses and some that has formed has already been broken off. Unless the winds switch direction during April and May we may see an early melt out here like we did in 2017.
  44. 1 point
    I think the reason many dont like them, is that they prefer the "rollercoaster" of options the ops throw up. The anomalies being the mean flatten those peaks and troughs of excitement the rollercoaster provides. Each to their own of course, but personally, i prefer a realistic view whatever it might be. As a blogger, accuracy is more important then excitement built on the more extremes the ops throw up. If i can produce reasonably accurate blogs based on the research John did, then anyone can if they put their mind to it.
  45. 1 point
    Thank you. It really was exceptional air quality here yesterday, like being in the mountains. A joy to breathe lol Hope that you and your family are safe and well? Heavy and frequent snow showers today, some snowflakes, some polystyrene-like balls. Chilly at just 2°C currently.
  46. 1 point
    The gfs 06 follows on from the midnight re the low Sun/Mon
  47. 1 point
    The third decade of March has been rather cold, especially in the Adriatic regions. Therefore, the month of March in Italy will close around + 0.5 ° / + 0.7 ° above the 81/10 average, since the first two decades have been warm.
  48. 1 point
    Discovered Augustiner while pitched up in Munich before Aberdeen FC took on Bayern. Many litres of beer helped numb the pain of defeat. The trip itself was a disaster, our flight to Munich was delayed due to fog in Germany. The airline offered us seats to Frankfurt which we grabbed. Unfortunately nobody in my group had a clue how far Munich was from Frankfurt. Af ew hours later and 800 euros lighter, we arrived in Munich. The taxi driver was doing 140mph while my party demolished a carry out....surreal.
  49. 1 point
    So, here we are at T+384...and what a nice time to be (potentially) waving 'bye-bye' to the -5C isotherm! Will ye no' come back again...?
  50. 1 point
    I managed to get a good fly through those cells before they became very active. They tracked from Elstree along towards Essex, literally no turbulence and was smooth as anything. The cell after this lot though became a Heavy TSRA and was pretty bumpy that I had route further away from it.
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