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GFS looks good this morning - from Sunday there is a stretch of 4 days with temps in the mid to upper teens. Could even squeak a 20c out too. Bring on the warmth, we’re well out of the cold season now. Start the chase again in November/December.....time to look for warmth and storms now folks, it’s April in 2 days!

Still looking good for a warm-up, should the GFS 12Z be anywhere near correct:

Bright ,sunny and cold today, wind definitely sourced from the north. Trouble always seems to occur in clusters. This afternoon, I took from the freezer a part-opened bag of peas to add to a stew, spilled half on the hall floor, and slipped on the slippery rolly contents thereafter. No major damage done, thankfully, just a silly reminder of these strange times.

Snowed here late last night, was nice seeing it come down heavily for a while. Most of it has gone now, but some left in the shade.

Meteociel's back up and running,don't everyone jump at once because there is no northerly showing now

Mr Snowidea and myself seem to have fully recovered from a week of weird symptoms. @CatchMyDrifthope you and the wife are OK, @marthada hope your son is OK. Been out for our morning constitutional, so lucky to have views like this just a short walk from the house. Really feel for those in city centres. Keep safe everyone.

As seen last evening the next critical period would appear to be, after the passage east of the midweek trough, the phasing of the subsequent troughs in mid Atlantic along with further amplification of the subtropical high in the wake of the previous trough. The position midday Friday According to the gfs over the next three days the troughs duly merge with surface lows evolving in mid Atlantic and tracking north east. But the ridge is quite resilient and they make little impact on the UK and in fact the trough starts to deconstruct as the ridge continues to amplify. The upshot of all this is that most of the UK will stay dry and a lot warmer than of late with the exception of the far north west. If of course this pans out

I don’t understand why certain people on here cling to 10 day charts as gospel. Do you not understand the real world. In the reliable the south looks like warming up a treat.

As it appears likely that the month will finish in the 6's this might surprise you, but only one other year has ever seen its first three months in the 6's. That was 1846 (6.3, 6.4, 6.1) which later had the warmest June. If the month finishes on 6.4 or 6.3 it will also be the first time since 1783 when a year has started off in such a narrow range (that time it was 3.4, 3.3, 3.3). The Maunder (with its rounded off means) produced the only year with identical Jan, Feb and Mar CET when 1668 had three 5.0 values to start. In third place for least range among Jan, Feb and Mar CET values is 0.2 from 1764 which had 3.7, 3.8 and 3.9 tied with 1899 which started out 4.9, 5.1 and 5.1. If March is corrected down to 6.4 or lower, then the range from November to March of only 0.6 will tie the current record 0.6 from 1698-99 (3.4 to 4.0). The second lowest such range for these five months is 0.9 in 1787-88 (3.6 to 4.5) which was tied in 1922-23 (5.6 to 6.5). This extended winter can take the dubious prize of second place with a March CET of 6.5 or 6.6.

Well, for some time now, next weekend has looked like being rather pivotal, regarding the direction of travel. And, as this morning's GFS 06Z suggests, that is still very-much the case today: And not a bad finale, either: SW-NE oriented jet; LP/tPV lobe/remnant safely out-of-harm's-way; and a warm Continent...What could possibly go wrong!

We have had blizzards before at the end of April,so plenty of time ye. Snow is more likely in April than November !

Skipping the waffle the ecm take on the weekend

It looks like the Countryfile weather was right.. All the models agree with the warm up next week. Waiting on the ECM now.

Refreshing to escape lockdown with a walk in the Suffolk countryside today. Mind you, a bit wild at times when the squalls came through. Had to turn your back on the near horizontal ice pellets - they hurt!

Easter Saturday according to GFS I wouldn't normally post a single FI chart but this has been appearing a lot on GFS recently. Might be something, might be nothing at that range of course

Incredible that a small retrogressing low in Southern Greenland's vicinity can turn what appears to be a nailed on N'ly... ...into this, just 24 hours later If this was Dec, Jan or Feb (or even March) I'd be pretty annoyed. And then a (very) long fetch SW'ly another 48 hours on Unbelievable turn around Jeff Coldies shouldn't despair too much, though, as there is another ghost cold chart to chase at 240 on the ECM!

Hi there, cold front just passing now with low cloud lifting. About 10 cm of new snow. Max today was -4.5c now falling to -9 c. Not as much wind as expected but could pick tomorrow. Log fire blazing, crap TV, no pub open. That means drinking too much red wine and eating. Had a good walk though. C

Evening all In truth, we knew the N'ly was finished when it became clear the zonal winds were heading back well above average after the warming. The resumed deceleration is all well and good but the base wind speed remains well above the normal so the Atlantic very much in charge and plenty of chance for some early warmth with the winter nightmare synoptics and a long fetch SW'ly. GFS FI suggesting something more interesting heading toward mid month as the effect of the slowing zonal winds leads to a weakening and more amplified Atlantic with the jet heading a long way south. Nothing unusual - it often happens late April we see the Atlantic amplify and a build of pressure to the NW allowing for a late and often potent N'ly in early to mid May as identified by Buchan.

So, here we are at T+384...and what a nice time to be (potentially) waving 'bye-bye' to the -5C isotherm! Will ye no' come back again...?

The air quality and visibility today is very good, as the wind is coming from a relatively clean direction (NNE) Panasonic LX-15

Oh Catch I'm sorry, I missed that Mrs Catch had it too xxx hope she picks up fast. It sounds like a horrible bug.

Son feeling better ty xx Postvan did not come, the buses are gone. I am marooned here with no money- thank god have got a husband and a car. Pity those who have not.

Yeah, in the good old days! Not so sure about these days.

I notice you've been mentioning the lack of aircraft data in the data assimilation stage is affecting the accuracy of the NWP. This looks fairly logical, but I didn't know how much of an impact it would have, or the amount of input data that comes from this source. After a bit of hunting on the internet I found a study on the accuracy of the modelling (RMSE) when removing each source of input data (admittedly the focus is short run predictions). Aircraft data is most significant for wind and temperature and the study finds it to be significant. So my conclusion is that it must be a significant source of error in the modelling. Sorry couldn't get the link to the study to work. The title if you are interested is: Observation System Experiments with the Hourly Updating Rapid Refresh Model Using GSI Hybrid Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation

There is time. Like I said yesterday though, 850s were about -10 yesterday and it wasn’t even that cold. Maybe in modern times it’s harder than ever to get proper cold.

Well, it's a T+384 chart, I know (to define detail is thus pointless!); but two things stand out for me: the main tPV remnant is stuck around Greenland, and Southern Europe is warming nicely:

Yes fingers crossed alright. Whichever model that shows the less cold solution for the UK, even if it's there on it's own is usually right. Anyway hopefully we can now see things warming up and I can get on with the the gardening and planing some crops.

Well that changed quickly just as it looked as if the Icon was on to something. Sneaky!

You may be correct but I would need some kind of scientific proof rather than 'feeling/thinking' that it must be so. It is very likely to have some effect for certain runs when flight data is usually more available. I may drop a line to UK Met help desk ans ask if they will seek the comment of the Ops desk.

It appears certain that we've passed the maximum this year, so time for a sea ice minimum poll. I'll try to post a new poll each month to track how opinions about this years minimum change. The data will be based on the NSIDC extent measures. They provide excel spreadsheets here that contain all of their daily data. Below are the values for the last 10 minima, in millions of km2

Sunny but chilly here. Quite pleasant.

I'm nae sure many folks here take Day 10 charts as gospel, PS...But it is sometimes hard to explain all the wrist-slitting when things don't go according to plan. After all, the models don't make the weather! And, as you say, the reliable time-frame looks okay for us Southern Softies!

Mixed bag weather wise on the hills this afternoon. Ideal temperatures for walking although the heavy rain at the summits was a slight pain. Walked for three hours in total and didnt see another person. Back into self isolation mode, woodburner on and an ice cold Augustiner helles in hand.

Looked at local Met O forecast this afternoon and saw dry so hung out a load of washing. A couple of sharp showers later it is all soaked through. If only showers from the North would get through so easily in cold Winter air.

Just got bombarded with hail a minute ago. IMG_1212.MP4 IMG_1213.MP4

A rather typical dry day really. Started fairly clear and blue/clouded in during the afternoon but we approach 6 and the cloud's breaking a bit again

First sign of warmer weather htis week, Sunday high of 17C and 18c on Monday. TWO reporting some parts of the sotuh may see highs of 21C

6.8c the 29th 1.1c above the 61 to 90 average 0.3c above the 81 to 10 average _____________________________ Current high this month 6.9c the 18th, 25th, 26th, 27th & 28th Current low this month 4.8c the 5th

Clear skies here first thing, then a sheet of Sc wandered across which has since cleared, Some patchy cloud creeping in elsewhere I see

Looking highly likely that a return to "normal" British weather after this quiet week. Milder, even warm at times, but with the return to unsettled conditions with spells of rain. The usual NW/SE variation likely with the NW missing out on the best of the pleasant Springtime conditions.

Well cold rarely wins out anymore ,so should not be surprised by the outcome now,even data issues made no difference in the end. The hunt for a true Northerly outbreak continues,probably appear in the height of summer when it’s utterly pointless,when fingers crossed people will be able to go out and about by then.

It's been a long wet and miserable autumn and winter so forgive me if I don't get too excited about a a few snowflakes falling down here on the South Coast on the first day of British Summer Time.

A tinted sunset this evening. Great, still light at 8pm.

Bit of an "all-or-nothing" with this possible northerly. GFS has turned winter into summer over the last 24 hours, and the latest 12Z will certainly get the roses out. Dry and increasingly warm.

And the GFS 12Z, for next Sunday, is lovely! Great model, rubbish model; great model, rubbish model...

Would absolutely love this to happen!

I only managed to get the tail end of it unfortunately, but a lovely sunset graced the sky this evening! (As ever zoom in for full res/detail)

Lovely sunset here!

What a super sunny spell we’re having. Had a great walk!

Some miscellaneous photos from a stunning day weather-wise! (Zoom in for full-resolution)