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I think you'll find quite a few of us have gardens we can sit outside in. Far more useful than wet snow surely.

Morning peeps... Well, it looks as if (touch wood!) and according to the ever-reliable GFS 00Z, that next Saturday could well see the southerly limit of the cold air: Before everything then gets pushed back, northwards: Ushering-in a period of sustained improvement: Best stop there, methinks!

You may be correct but I would need some kind of scientific proof rather than 'feeling/thinking' that it must be so. It is very likely to have some effect for certain runs when flight data is usually more available. I may drop a line to UK Met help desk ans ask if they will seek the comment of the Ops desk.

posted this on the storm & convection thread but I just had a heavy hail shower that has turned my garden in a little bit of a snow land

Today just proves yet again what a waste cold uppers are this late in the year. -10 uppers still giving 7c maxima and nothing of note. Bring on the warmth shown on the gfs please.

I'm not fussed regarding the cold right now.. We lost our chance for meaningful cold a long time ago... I'm hoping that with an improvement of conditions and warmer settled conditions, could mean that most viruses tend to slow down and reduce quite alot as we approach Summer proper. Here are a few decent outcomes from the GFS 6Z...

Models showing a further few chilly and generally dry days to come, particularly over Western UK, with a circular area of High Pressure holding out to the West of the UK in the Atlantic: Few further wintry showers likely to continue towards some Southern and Eastern areas before High Pressure towards mid-week slips a little towards the West-South-West of the UK thanks to Low Pressure over Iceland starts swinging down from the North. This quite possibly introducing cold air - this time from the North-West, especially over Northern UK. After that, it’s where things get a bit more uncertain. A UK wide Northerly could develop. It may still be just about far enough away not to fully rule out yet. Though perhaps a more likely scenario is to see some High Pressure building over to the South and East of the UK over mainland Europe. This could bring up some warmer air from the South-West or South with a possibility of the Azores Low Pressure and the Low Pressure over North-Eastern UK linking up with each other just to the West of the UK. Although if this link up (if it occurs) happens further East then more areas of the UK could become more influenced by a possible colder Northerly shot next week and be on the West flank of the Low Pressure. Maybe the snow clouds would then gain a stronger force over any rain clouds (An old weather comic from years ago, he hee...) But some warmer weather would be totally fine, if not.

Blimey! It's actually snowing!!!!!!!

Howling gale, and a few flakes of snow blowing in the wind. It’s the first snow flakes I’ve seen at home this winter.

A tinted sunset this evening. Great, still light at 8pm.

@Griff Still going at 144hrs if we do get this northerly,i am hoping for some nice fine warm weather after it. Edit:this was the ICON from two days ago at 180 so consistent from the ICON.

Then again, considering the time-of-year, and the probable reduction in both aircraft and balloon data, it's maybe not so 'ridiculous' after all? Though, that having been said, next weekend still looks like being a turning point? Still looking good at T+297!

Classic GFS

A very interesting read, with what one might expect, the most impact, where most jets fly, around where the major jet is USA-Atlantic-Europe-Asia-USA. Get the upper air wrong and it is even more difficult to get the surface weather correct. I've sent an e mail to UK Met so hope to get their response. Mind you no longer got any contacts in there so may not get a reply. Also interesting the note re perhaps trying to get additional radio-sondes released. Not sure how that might work as the sites are largely fixed so I would imagine any increase would be in frequency not positions.

Not a surprise that the models showing the coldest solutions are looking like not being correct now,regarding the next cold plunge from the North. Typical how the less cold scenarios nearly always win out in the end

High pressure in charge at the moment, centred south of Iceland, but over the next few days it will weaken rapidly as high pressure builds over northern Canada. Note the high cell of 1065mb. At the same time fronts associated with the deepening low, which by midday Thursday is north of Scotland. will move south east down the latter and N. Ireland. Thus becoming quite windy in the north with rain and then wintry showers in the colder air behind the fronts We are now approaching the time that has previously been discussed as the lobe of the tpv to the north moves east but a subsidiary trough tracks south along the eastern flank of the high cell resulting in the main troughs merging in mid Atlantic But simultaneously the subtropical high ridges north across the UK and into Europe All of which means that as low pressure develops in the Atlantic the south remains pretty dry with most of the inclement weather again concentrated in the north. This is according to the gfs

I am starting to see amplification in the models appearing the GFS tried it at 180> then the GEM from 144 now the ECM from 144 now where did that come from. ECM at 240...

Don't think any model should be trusted with the lack of flight data at the moment. I doubt any model is anywhere near nailing the end of next week yet.

Crikey what a dull day. Two photos of fairly specialist interest... The small round lightly pink leaves here are the beginnings of this year's meadow saxifrages near us down towards the lighthouse and this rather elegant youth is a challenge to any gardeners - name this plant!

ICON 180 so a cold run from the ICON then,what will gfs say to this?

Safe to say the icon is most certainly not backing the gfs!!amazing northerly and cold air!!

No fat lady singing just yet

Refreshing to escape lockdown with a walk in the Suffolk countryside today. Mind you, a bit wild at times when the squalls came through. Had to turn your back on the near horizontal ice pellets - they hurt!

Rain , sleet and snow in Canterbury ATM, don't think it will last long, now proper heavy snow..! First of the season

18z still going for that Spanish plume, could hit 20c in places there.

I went for my constitutional on the beach this afternoon. Messed about inconsequentially with waves for a while in the back of my mind thinking I should start to explore video... then along came this hairy monster wanting me to do something with a small slimy ball.

Dreich day with no redeeming qualities. Overcast all day and cool with a max of 7c. Winds initially light from the NE turning moderate at times in the evening from the N/NW. Was dry until just now - light shower of rain ongoing. Started clearing out the overwintered bulbs only to discover vine weevil larvae have massacred two tubs of lily bulbs. So much for the nematodes that were applied to the soil end of last summer This cartoon from one of the local facebook sites raised a laugh.

Goes off on one afterwards, but I presume 120 looked different on the previous run? (looks like it copied the icon's homework )

The JMA at 120. scratches head

Just heard on Countryfile weather that this is the strongest area of HP over the UK for over a 100 years! And they also mentioned end of next week it's going to warm up.. I bet it doesn't.. lol

I know the time scale isn't quite equal, but interesting nevertheless. I'm still the new guy but that looks a lot like a move towards the Icon. Both bring cold from the north into Scotland from Thursday.

Is it a dog plant

Nae idea HC, re the plant a,lilly or a vegetable? This one might be easier. Apologies for the poor pic. It pops up every spring with small but pretty yellow, bell-shaped flowers and fades away quite quickly..

Hmmm.. What's happening here then? The ECM is more amplified at 144

Good question, not sure about that. Lack of data on these computer models, and the lack of human input, as far as I am aware at any rate, will make quite a difference. If the run starts even slightly out, it will be amplified all the way through making the errors lager and larger.

Thanks KW. Wow, look at all that cold air just to our east again on the GEM, is it really April or am I in a time warp?

Saw this a couple of days ago from ECMWF........ Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts | ECMWF WWW.ECMWF.INT One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres at the...

This is ridiculous, icon going for it again and colder air getting in earlier than the midnight run and gfs still not interested, as some sort of low form out of greenland to spoil it, something about northerly outbreaks that not any model can get to grips with until about 48 hours out, useless, including ukmo now that has decided to jump ship after being solid for it happening. Perhaps all output should be capped at t120 hours!!

Cold and showery down eastern regions

i just had some vague weather

Whats icon 06z showing?i mentioned it 48 hours ago once you get a west based nao trend its very hard to correct it back east and i had a feeling the gfs and ecm was most probably gona be right which is why i wrote this northerly off a couple of days ago!!its all down to that little area of lower heights that branches off the main vortex to our north east!!it pushes west towards southern greenland and conjoins with the low coming out of the states which then brings the west based nao into play!!if that had not happened then we would be looking looking at an almighty cold spell and northerly for the start of april!!

Looking at this morning's ext anomalies the orientation of the tpv, in conjunction with the trough in the NW Atlantic would appear to be dritical to the outlook for the UK. The GEFs version is obviously the favoured option

Morning..very windy again overnight (hasn’t let up for about 3 days now, very cold in the wind). I see the radar and reports on here confirm some wintriness about this morning! That trough should give some on high ground something I would imagine as dew points widely below freezing. WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Points de rosée en temps réel des stations de France et des pays limitrophes.

The ecm has a much more bullish approach to the merging of the troughs resulting in a deep surface low tracking north east bringing strong winds to most areas by next Sunday. Obviously much still to be resolved in this period

Make of it what you will

There does seem to be a trend developing for a decent Easter this year.

A day of occasional Hail/Sleet showers interspersed with fleeting glimpses of sunshine and a moderate NE breeze. Max of 5.5c. Some more persistent sleet/snow the last hour or so allowing a very slight accumulation of snow on the kids trampoline; all melted on the surrounding grass. Had to venture out to the shop for the first time in over a week. Really feel for the shop assistants dealing with customers that ignore the social distancing rules and the general madness of the panic buying and the ensuing extra work. This conversation at the checkout just summarised it "Mad times" says I, "I just wish I was at home" was the reply. Just hope the politicians remember after this the debt they owe to the many "little people" in services and the NHS they happily berated in the past . Anyway, on a more cheery note this is a catchy song for our times.... link

The cat is traumatised. All those goodies baddies stagecoaches and injuns have finished her off.

Probably too early for any real heat, yet a while...But hope is on the horizon: T+321:

To be honest,i wan't some warmth now because this winter has been a bit of a virus in it's self,winter you have had your chance now "BUGGER OFF" please let the latest gfs VERIFY from day ten 240,300,and 348hrs.