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A quick reminder tomorrow sees the UK spring forward into British summer time and this means all models from 00z tomorrow (Sunday 29th) will be 1 hour later in updating Approx times for the main models GFS 00Z 0430-0545 06Z 1030-1145 12Z 1630-1745 18Z 2230-2345 ECM 00Z 0700-0800 12Z 1900-2000 UKMO (Updates usually complete within 30 minutes) 00Z 0500 12Z 1700

ECM has moved to the UKMO / ICON scenario & corrected the atlantic low SE so it potentially straddles the UK like the JMA bringing some snow. A long way off though.

To be honest,i wan't some warmth now because this winter has been a bit of a virus in it's self,winter you have had your chance now "BUGGER OFF" please let the latest gfs VERIFY from day ten 240,300,and 348hrs.

With the lack of plane data, I think this is going to go right down to the wire. I'm in the camp for one more attempt to see a little bit more snow before we warm up.

Come to Daddy!

Probably too early for any real heat, yet a while...But hope is on the horizon: T+321:

A VERY cold start to April for Scotland

Good morning all! Could April 5th mark the turning point of Spring? T+201: T+252: T+312: T+384: Maybe not the endless warm and sunny days some of yesterday's runs were suggesting, but at least those horrible north-easterlies would be gone!

Allah be praised! Next weekend mightn't be too cold and unpleasant, after all?

Took the kids for our daily cycle this morning. Left in warm, glorious, spring sunshine and returned frozen to the marrow. No idea what the temps were but it noticeably dropped! Few graupel showers but otherwise a chilly but fairly nice day. Went to the supermarket to get some essentials (booze and crisps) and was pleasantly surprised at how quiet it was! Hope everyone on here is surviving!

Will be watching tonight, looks a strong setup!

Haha gfs ensembles, credibility whatever you had left gfs I should have said is about to go through the floor,only a 25c spread in temperatures ,and still some runs breaching the minus 10 line whilst others over the plus 10 line. This model after 120 hours should indeed be scrapped.

A few flurries look possible tomorrow but not much sign of anything significant or widespread

What a lovely spell of weather we've enjoyed this last week. I've don't think I've ever had my garden looking so nice so early in the year. Even had some garden furniture out to sit and enjoy the sunshine. Shame it's slowly going downhill from today with colder air, stronger N/NE wind and cloud bringing a few showers off the North Sea. Here comes the cloud: 08.40

High Risk will be Issued by 16z in my opinion if the HRRR continues to be bold, other models not so bold it has to be said. 50-60mph Movers and PWATS around 2 " equals good luck seeing these ground scrapers which should be HP in nature along the Warm Front

The longer term outlook going on the ECM mean suggests unsettled conditions towards the NW with more settled conditions towards the SE.... Perhaps some of this rain and showers spreading further South with time, still likely to be some frost in the more settled conditions, with temps around average further South. Pretty standard fair if you ask me. Take care all.

I went for my constitutional on the beach this afternoon. Messed about inconsequentially with waves for a while in the back of my mind thinking I should start to explore video... then along came this hairy monster wanting me to do something with a small slimy ball.

and back to the present and the UK ... you still feel next weekend could go either way from this?? Not far from seeing the low slide down to the east rather than escaping west?

Exactly the same here. Started off though with a 9.30am high of 8.0°C but a very gusty soft hail squall shot through around 11am and temps have bumped around 4°C all afternoon. Dog walk from the house for our daily exercise down to the Tweed which is getting lower by the day. The valley floor where Finn stands has completely flooded three times this winter:

Fine arctic spring day with a fresh north breeze with passing soft hail flurries my favourite spring weather as humidities are low and fields continuing to dry out .No need for rain for a few weeks in this neck of the woods. This is my favourite weather colourful sky and clouds, small wintry showers coming down from the north across the Firth ,very dry air therefore no mud and very cool for physical work outside. Stone picking just now Currently 4.5c

A bit of an early plume that!

It will be good to follow something a bit more 'normal'....

Looking like tomorrows high will be a record breaker for March. Anything above 1049.9 will be a new monthly record.

As for tomorrow, Gfs 12z has -10c/-11c upper air in the east of the country reaching the south coast with wintry showers showing up mainly in the SE.

‪Interesting mid/high level cloudscapes this afternoon, with a messy mixture of cirrus/cirrocumulus and some altocumulus, being driven in on a fresh E/NE wind.‬

A few wintry flurries getting through to here too on the fresh Northerly breeze. Last lot best described as soft hail or snow pellets. Wet baws must be low as 2 mtr air temp is over 5C.

The atmosphere is all up in the air at the moment

The GEFS 0z / mean is still supportive of some type of cold outbreak from the NW / N later next week, especially further north.

The ecm analysis at midday Weds is not a million miles from the fax Over the next 24 hours it deepens the Iceland low as it tracks east whilst migrating the Atlantic high pressure NW. but leaving behind a residual ridge And over the next 24 hours the troughs to the NW/SWphase and a quite intense surface low develops in the Atlantic and drifts north east

Where is your mum? I'm happy to go out and get shopping for her and drop it off..if cash is also an issue I can put it through my business and we can sort it out when monies is more available.. Ive had no signs of the virus although some I caught in end of February (over it now) matches covid to a T just waiting on anti body tests going to pre order 5.. Currently they reckon maybe £100-1000 each..we shull see.. On a more positive note my online plant business has seen a rise of probably 250% in sales in the last week.. Royal mail and parcelforce contiune to collect and I work from home in pretty much self isolated garage! My stock is delivered once a week. We also sell plastic sheeting this is interesting.. In the last week Doctors ordering our plastic sheeting must be 1 in 3 orders... We are trying to keep up with demand but getting 70 orders a day and trying to process them single handed is proving near on impossible.. But I will manage, I guess when people's plants turn up that must provide some kind of joy and something to do in these depressing times.. . people that are supporting my business in these difficult times I'm coming up with an idea of a reward at the end of all this maybe cash... hamper? Any ideas... Sometimes I feel like giving someone £100-200 has no thought into it and you just throw cash at someone.. I dunno.. Maybe cash at these times is the best option.. If anyone close to me needs help do not hesitate to contact me.. I don't have anyone in my house hold considered high risk.. That said I do have a teacher, NHS worker and sparkie in this house currently in able to stop working.. I feel like the only one who's not a key worker lol!!!

It was a mainly sunny day for me as my working week finished and I hared off home down the A9. For once no dawdling cars, white van idiots or queues behind tractors so good time was made... The down side was seeing my fuel consumption rocket from the usual 60mpg on this run of 100 miles to about 40mpg. Ah well it was the most fun I've had all week despite having to ease up for about 10 miles as I had to follow a jam sarnie. Lots of gardening being done in the Sutherland and Easter Ross towns and villages, and folk out walking singly or in pairs. God Fortrose is deathly quiet this evening! The lesser celandine is going full gas now to attract the early bees What a weird time. I now have to carry a letter to show to the cops that confirms my work as 'essential', in case they ask me why I'm out and about. I'm thinking of inserting a sentence... 'Mr HC is also allowed to ignore the national speed limit as and when he fancies....' God how irresponsible can I get. It's called stress release, from some of the black fears that come to haunt me. Please let young HC do his work and not get infected - he's a nurse in a big city hospital.

-12 850's into Scotland 210. and there was me talking about getting fed up of chasing this northerly earlier lol,if it happens,it happens,we have summer to look forward to soon and i hope that we can all get back to civilization and enjoy it.

Good evening folks, Although I spent a fair bit of time following some of the great discussions on here and trying to learn a bit more about weather I rarely post anything myself. There is obviously a fair few people on here that have similar interest in weather, and in particular, in snow as myself. Over the past year or so I have seen a couple of my photos posted here, for example the picture of Easy Gully with the first proper snow of the winter in it back at the end of October last year, or the picture of the big cornice from last February. Below is what Aonach Mor was looking like last Friday (20th March). I hope you don't mind a wee bit of self promotion, but I have just written piece on snow cover in Lochaber (with a number of nice snowy shots) that some of you might enjoy, particularly as we can't really get to the hills at the moment. I have also written some stuff of my time earlier this year working as field guide on the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration in Antarctica, a project that got a fair amount of media coverage. These can all be found here; Blair Fyffe, Climbing and Things BLAIRFYFFE.BLOGSPOT.COM Hope it provides you some interest/entertainment or at least a pleasant distraction for everything else which is going on at the moment. Blair

Bit of an "all-or-nothing" with this possible northerly. GFS has turned winter into summer over the last 24 hours, and the latest 12Z will certainly get the roses out. Dry and increasingly warm.

And the GFS 12Z, for next Sunday, is lovely! Great model, rubbish model; great model, rubbish model...

Today has been a cold shock to the system compared to the glorious sunshine all week. I get the feeling we're in for some middle ground cold damp gloomy weather, neither satisfying proper cold or early warmth seekers

Taken from the latest update "Greatest risk for long-track/significant tornadoes, along with potential for very large/destructive hail and damaging wind gusts, still appears to exist from portions of northeastern Missouri and arcing northwestward into Iowa, and then eastward across Illinois and into Indiana. This risk will largely exist with new/intense storm development this afternoon in the wake of the initial convection -- but also potentially evolving with a few intensifying storms within the initial/ongoing band of convection -- along/near the warm front into Indiana. As the storms intensify rapidly this afternoon in response to the rapidly evolving environment, expect peak tornado risk to occur through late afternoon and into early evening, spreading from eastern Iowa/northeast Missouri across the remainder of the MDT and ENH risk areas. Given existing uncertainties due to ongoing precipitation/cloud cover, and anticipated/rapid changes in the environment as the warm front lifts northward and clouds thin/clear from the west, confidence remains too low to delineate a potentially concentrated area of greatest risk, which would otherwise support high risk upgrade. As the situation evolves, a possible upgrade remains possible for the 20Z outlook update, given the larger-scale pattern/environment which continues to appear favorable for several significant tornadoes."

Just on the topic of weather for a mo. Temps down now to 8.9c after peaking +10c Expecting to see some snow flakes tomorrow up here!

UKMO is running with the ICON solution.

Me like! Perhaps an improvement on the cool/cold conditions of the next few days coming. Or maybe wishful thinking. FI is moving backwards and forwards a lot lately. The GFS is quite keen on a return of the type of conditions we had in the first 20 days of this month. Hopefully not a full on Atlantic onslaught, but certainly the potential is there, for even some pretty warm air to be wafted up from the south and southwest.

Looks promising

Up these parts we could definitely use some rain, the fields are like dust bowls and my trees could certainly use a drink. With what's going on, sustained heavy rain would be useful in keeping the herd indoors.

06z fax chart just out, that little feature moving SE towards East Anglia is new, so may see a more persistent area of sleet/snow showers in the south east after all.

Thought I'd spend a few minutes away from Covid-19. What is interesting is there is appearing an increasingly likely chance of the UK beating the March high pressure record of 1048.6, 2 main opportunities for this, the first comes tonight somewhere on W.Scotland, could well get close to 1050mbs. Second chance is on Sunday afternoon,because whilst the high is starting to weaken its orientation puts the strongest part of the high very close to N.Ireland, so again something between 1048-1050mbs in the far NW of N.Ireland seems very possible.

The essential difference between the GEFs and EPS in the medium term this morning is the alignment of the tpv

Still too cold for honey bees most days. Ours ventured out of the hives for a bit earlier in the week when we had some decent max temps, but not for long. Not seen a bumblebee yet though. I'd have expected to have seen at least see the odd big queen out foraging or looking for somewhere to nest as they will fly in cooler temperatures.

Quite a bit of uncertainty at the moment how things may pan out as we enter April. Fine margins between something notably cold or quite benign temp wise, also something fairly dry or much more unsettled. In the immediate rest of March will be cold, with chilly NE flow and showers wintry in places, frost at night. As we enter April three scenarios: 1. A renewed northerly blast with wintry showers, a long fetch northerly lasting 2-3 days becoming cut off with a ridge moving through and it becomes much milder (this scenario looked more likely early in the week, but looks less likely now - due to developments to the NW - see scenario 2) 2. A northerly flow tries to establish itself, but everything shunts east as we see a shortwave development to our NW, sending the northerly plunge through scandi, and instead we see heights to the SW ridge in and topple through bringing pleasant dry conditions 3. As scenario 2 but instead of the ridge the shortwave has more definition to it, and instead ridge development can't get a foothold and instead we see low heights develop rapidly to the SW and we are left with an unsettled cyclonic spell with marked temp gradient north-south,north in cold air, south in milder air, thereafter the atlantic probably breaks through. I think scenario 3 will play out, the atlantic has some gusto left in it still and will nudge any ridge development quickly aside.

Yep. It was a lovely day today, quite a lot of people were outside. If only this would verify it has a high dominating the UK for 7 days straight, with temps into the high teens, and even low 20s... as seen around the London area! More weather like this is very welcome, especially in the upcoming summer months.

A nice sunset here once again ft. the moon in the top left.