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Is this the moans thread? Wintry showers forecast this weekend cold uppers and a possible northerly shot. Heights breaking out across the pole and lots of residual cold and a blocking high....

That's quiet an impressive ECM mean at 192.

Hope we get a decent northerly and some lying snow to take our minds off everything. You are allowed an hour or so outside,enough time to get out and enjoy it on the Downs before it’s all gone by mid-morning at this time of year. Fingers crossed it comes off.

Yes of course Don, everyone is feeling down with whats going on, worried about friends and family, and this does in fact keep our minds off everything to a certain extent. Having said this lets face it, you love it, no point beating around the bush here, I know that most of us would prefer current weather conditions, sunny and settled, I'm really getting into it if I'm honest. But if there's a chance of some stonking snow (to coin a phrase), a couple of inches of the white stuff, winter wonderland scenes upto about 10.30am in April, well you'd grab it with both hands. I would anyway.

Of course it will...It's non-stick!

I’m well aware of that and I myself am very worried about the implications of the Coronavirus and the affect it could have on me, but more importantly my family. I have been visiting this thread as a means of a break from the horrible times! I don’t think I’ve really been moaning about the outlook, just giving my take on it. However, you’re very right that it absolutely matters diddly squat in the scheme of things! I apologise if my posts have seemed downbeat for the wrong reasons in this thread but like many, my general mood is not great at the moment given the circumstances!

Yay! One of the best 'Yeah, Right' charts of the year!

Let’s hope this comes off

It will be ironic if we get decent snowfall no one will be able to go out and enjoy it!!

If the cold is still showing by the 30th of April lassie, we really are in trouble this spring.. Plenty of colder Conditions for the weekend and into next week... Gardeners beware... Protect those delicates..

Stuck under frontal cloud all day, but at least it has been dry, with a temp of 10C and a noticeable cooling SW breeze. I don't suppose there is much demand for cut flowers these days, just a few picked last week. The bulbs may be lifted later this year, but with the USA apparently being the biggest market for them, who knows? One from my once daily exercise

Here she comes on the GFS 6z .

Dank cycle to work. Not to do any work but remove the keys from the key safe outside the shutter & front door. Don't think I will go back to work for a while. I like to be prepared in general and when I saw this situation unfolding I bought a jigsaw. I find them relaxing to do and when it is combined with a map then even better. It is now sold out via Amazon so glad a bought it 10 days ago! It The jigsaw is a 1000 piece Ordance Survey map of central Glasgow. Thought I'd bring an old jigsaw out to test run it as I haven't done any since we got our cat Florence. Wish me luck! My sister in law Emma Pollock is on the Robin Ince (side kick to the scientist Brian Cox) show Cosmic Shambles 'The Stay At Home Festival'. One of our other artists Malcolm Middleton (Arab Strap) is also playing a live set. Starts in 15 minutes at 8.30. You can also catch up with the show later or view older episodes. https://cosmicshambles.com/stayathome/live

Evening all An interesting set of 12Z outputs with sliders and shortwaves aplenty to keep us all guessing, I've ended up dazed and confused so a summary of sorts: UKMO: dry but increasingly chilly with -8 850s into early next week. IF we get some clearer air overnight frosts (and quite sharp frosts) look certain but so much depends on the cloud in the circulation of the HP. GEM: Not quite as good for the cold fraternity as you might expect from the 500HPA synoptics. The retrogression is clean enough but instead of a straight line N'ly, we get the trough coming in from Europe so a lot of cold rain with -4 850s. GFS Control and OP: Curious runs to this observer. Retrogression is thwarted by shortwaves but northern blocking sets up and the Atlantic in far FI tries to come back on a delayed by a deep LP which forms to the east of Greenland and moves east rather than SE so the N'ly is transient and as usual back comes the PV and the Atlantic in far FI but with the jet displaced to the south of the British Isles. ECM: Again, no real retrogression but the Scandinavian trough becomes the main influence and LP becomes negatively aligned pushing SE against some very cold air in situ. To be honest, I look at ECM and think higher elevations might well see some snow from the T+240 set up - frontal rain pushing into -8 850s could mean snow for the Pennines and Peaks perhaps (all very alliterative, I know). My conclusion is there's a lot of confusion post T+144. There's plenty of options around the fate of the large HP to the NW - will it retrogress, decline SW or decline over the British Isles? I'm none the wiser.

SLIDER ALERT!!! JFF

The GEM at 180,look at that cold purple finger showing it's hand to the north and at 192 somethings afoot and i hope it's snow the models showing these stunning charts are prob down to this,a final SSW.

Well it truly was rather blustery yesterday! So blustery the wind ripped my anemometer off the pole and into the garden! Now in bits, shopping online today for new anemometer! Calmer here today but still a bit dreich. I am still promised sunshine tomorrow and for the next couple of days. I could do with it even just to dry the garden out a bit and get the pothole in my drive repaired. Saw a camper van heading south early this morning. I guess the shitty weather did it's work! ?️

With the snow piling in

Decent go at it on this run .

And ironically they have chosen the time of year that has shown the best charts to be at their most despondent.

More interested in what woulh happen by 192.

UKMO looks lovely from what i can see.

Hi Guys Wanted to start a thread with regards to the Ongoing effects of Covid-19 and the Upcoming Tornado Tours that are run through Netweather and WeatherHolidays and try to keep updating this Thread regularly over the next few weeks for all members on here who are booked onto the Tours. We have already taken the unprecedented decision to cancel Tours 1 and 2 already and anybody booked on these tours should have already received an email outlining your options going forward be it to receive a full refund or to roll your tour over to 2021. The Tours span the dates listed below. Tour 1 - 5th May until the 16th May Tour 2 - 16th May until the 27th May We are currently keeping track of the ongoing virus on a day by day and week by week basis for the remaining 4 Tornado Alley Tours and the Arizona Monsoon Tour and will update accordingly. The next Update on Tours 3 and 4 will be around Easter Time. The general consensus with regards to flights is for your flight operator to cancel your flight and you will receive a full refund or to accept a voucher which is valid to use on other dates. Going forward further if things improve dramatically over the next 6-8 weeks we will be open to the options of slotting tours into July which has an amazing Northern Plains season and/or into August for anybody who might want to roll their ticket onto the Monsoon Tours/Northern Plains Both myself and Paul M will be on hand if you have any questions but for now this is all we can update with at this present time. Regards Paul

We’re all allowed one exercise a day!

Yes - still OK for cold the models - inland convection generated - heavy snow showers breaking out all over the gaff.

ECM day 8 would put hairs on your chest

Fantastic! I’m a snow lover but sitting in the garden right now with the warm sun beating on my face....perfect for spring, may the cold runs show and verify next winter

Thing is in April it will all melt by mid morning in any sunshine, in most places anyway. Any snow in the evening though should stick around all night and freeze as temperatures drop.

Bloody Nora I’m on a roll and so is the GFS6z . Just keeps giving .

Its certainly a stonker Northerly on this run.

One massive difference to our normal toppling Eastward moving high. There is no vortex to set off the jet firing up off the Eastern sea board so the Northerly could be huge

To be honest i think we really need to see some sort of wave embedded in entrenched -8c air to give a significant snow event, certainly further south, but i don't get the moaning at such charts as this on March 25th thats all, i am not suggesting a right dumping is likely, thats probably a 1-5% chance even for me and you but better than nothing. Scotland could see about 3 inches even on lower ground near Inverness if the Northerly comes off and the PPN is at night.

At least we may be treated to some snow falling and hard frosts while we are at Home.

Round 2 will probably come to nothing just like round 1 won’t now either. Trying to get any decent cold into the U.K. is getting harder and harder as the years go by!

Spring may be here at the moment Don, but come the weekend its gonna be a shock to the system.... Much colder air in place with an increasing risk of Wintry showers, and that could mean snow too. So make the most of the next couple of days if you like these warm conditions, you may need those ice scrapers come the weekend. It's a good ECM tonight and quite a cold mean... Not to concerned about the 18z,even though it does show some snow this weekend... The UKMO is a bit of a concern, but not overly so, and could quite easily back Westwards tomorrow.

And just when you think things are slipping away, the GFS pulls out a rasper as well.

Trouble is how many times do stunning charts like the gem at t180 and 192 make it down to T0 hours. Maybe just once in a million it actually verifies as shown,

There's our round 2 plunge, at least 1,000 miles further east already. Complete inconsistency in the models, waist of time. So it's just going to turn cold, miserable and probably cloudy too I bet. Will the gfs invent out of thin air a 3rd plunge of cold next that will end up 1,000 miles further east after a couple of runs I wonder?...

I have a garden.

Hi all, haven't posted for a while due to personal issues, ongoing bad mental issues and constant struggling with my stomach. Anyway feel in a bit a of better place recently, so thought it would be a good time to stay around and post more. Anyway onto the weather, Today's observations: A glorious day with unbroken sunshine through out, which has been the case for the last few days. On the chilly side down here though due to a constant pretty raw feeling ESE Wind coming in right off the sea, it does vary from SE at times though. I haven't seen a single cloud Today at all. Current conditions 15:22 Today's Highs and Lows Temperature: 10.1 .Temperatures: High 10.8'c (01:17am) Low: 7.6'c (5:47am) Dew Point: 0.7 .Dew Point: High 6.6 Low -1.4 Wind Chill: 8.7 .Highest Wind Gust: 21mph (10:35am) Average Direction ESE Wind Speed and Direction: 12mph from ESE .High Humidity 76% Low Humidity 46% Humidity: 52% .High Pressure: 1024.2mb Low Pressure: 1022.4mb Barometric Pressure: 1022.7mb .Today's Rainfall 0.0mm Rainfall: 0.0mm On the last day of each month I will do a Monthly overall High and Low section Sandown Bay, on my lonely daily walk

Yep very rare sight.

Let’s hope the models build on this mega northerly in this afternoons runs.Could be a white start for April.Exciting model watching in Spring again,lol. After months of chasing dross in the winter.Thats the way it goes now for some reason.

Lovely seeing the blue skies over London not filled with contrails! Also noticeable is the low humidity here this week, currently 13°C and dew point -5°C.

Yes i know - there is more people despondent in here than the coronavirus thread, and there is a threat to lives of people posting in there!

easier at this time of year though, than Dec to Feb

The first lot won't amount to much, but round 2 could be interesting alright. Surely not another wind up....

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight The front and rain will move a tad further south today thus the rain mainly over the central belt of Scotland with some clearer and colder air to the north of this. Further south England and Wales will have another sunny and warm day. Perhaps some cloud creeping into the far south west Tonight cloud and rain/drizzle will persist over parts of Scotland and N. Ireland whilst a clear night further south means temps will plunge giving a widespread frost by morning. A good example of diurnal variations at this time of year Tomorrow still some patchy rain/drizzle southern Scotland and N. Ireland but another warm and sunny day further south Over Thursday night and through Friday the high cell is slowly shifting orientation as the front contibues to slide south. Cloud and patchy light rain in the vicinity of this whilst colder to the north and still quite pleasant to the south Over the weekend the high intensifies to the west of Ireland resulting in the surface wind veering north easterly across the UK Thus becoming colder with showers along a weakening from and along eastern coastal regions

Well, well, well. I haven't done these type of posts in a while. Here we go again! A very fine and dry looking day tomorrow. Unbroken sunshine is likely for the majority of the British Isles. Wednesday morning On Wednesday morning, the majority of England and Wales will be treated to a fine, sunny morning. The only exception is the far north of England/Scotland/Northern Ireland, where instead, they could wake up to a cloudy and perhaps wet morning. Frost is possible in the south, were temperatures should be near freezing, and perhaps dipping below freezing in some areas. Temperatures in the morning in the south should range from 0-7c, and in the north they should range from 3-9c. Wednesday afternoon On Wednesday afternoon, some of the rain and cloud over Ireland, Scotland and northern England will linger into the afternoon, becoming a wet afternoon in these areas. Elsewhere, it will be sunny. Unbroken sunshine is likely, but high level whisps of cloud can't be ruled out. Due to the unbroken sunshine, the temperatures will rise very quickly where sunshine is forecast. It will be a very mild, perhaps warm, day tomorrow in the afternoon, with temperatures in the south ranging from 12-17c, and 7-13c in the north. Wednesday evening On Wednesday evening, it is the exact same picture as it is on Wednesday afternoon. Unbroken sunshine possible in some southern areas, with northern areas seeing cloud and rain into the evening and overnight. If you live in a place where sunshine is likely, then the sunlight being reflected off the high level cloud could lead to some pretty cool sunsets! Temperatures in the south in the evening and overnight should range from 3-8c, and in the north, they should range from 3-7c. Have a good Wednesday everyone!

1080 GH

Well never mind it's time for spring