Leaderboard

Stick to people with Blue ticks on twitter during corona. Anyone else is prone to tweet complete cods wallop for the attention.

This past 24 hours has seen a significant nosedive in upper temps on the ENS as the models amplify the ridge more substantially which digs the down stream troughing further south & West. Still some uncertainty as to whether we get the 'true' Easterly however at the very least a blast of -6 to -8c air looks likely...

A doctor has described the last moments of coronavirus patients, saying they remain lucid until the end and ask to talk to their loved ones by phone as they realise they are dying. Doctor Francesca Cortellaro, from the San Carlo Borromeo hospital in Milan, is one of many medical staff in Italy to speak candidly about their struggle with coronavirus. Many have shared harrowing tales and photos of exhausting shifts - and of the toll the battle is taking. One has likened the virus to an earthquake. Dr Cortellaro told Italian newspaper Il Giornale: "You know what's most dramatic? Seeing patients dying alone, listening to them as they beg you to say goodbye to their children and grandchildren." Dr Cortellaro went on to say how coronavirus patients arrive on their own, and "when they are about to die, they sense it". "They are lucid, they do not go into narcolepsy. It is as if they were drowning, but with time to understand it," he said. The vast majority of cases are in the northern Lombardy region, where Bergamo is located. A doctor in the town's Papa Giovanni XXIII hospital, Roberto Cosentini, has likened Lombardy to the "epicentre of a never-ending earthquake". He told Italian newspaper La Repubblica that the majority of patients arrive at the hospital in the afternoon, and are often in such bad condition they need to be intubated or attached to a ventilator right away. God help Italy.. This is from sky news

Am I the only one finding this all a bit surreal. None of us have known this type of situation before.

3 people in our Iceland were trampled on the way to the toilet roll section.

So a lot more educated in this subject than the armchair doctors in this thread then?

I think the last one was locked because it got too long . And I think the threads been great. It’s impossible to avoid the odd skirmish as we’re debating an emotive subject!

ECM broadly inline with the median point -9c Isotherm widespread at day 7.

BOOM!

Correct - I am firmly happy with the Governments response and reasoning. It's quite simple: Oldies & People with Health Issues - Stay indoors Youngies - Go about your daily life as normal, spread the virus, develop immunity. It protects us from the second wave.

Sorry guys. If you're sick of panic posts, best skip this one. If anyone is moderating this thread and not keen on the tone, feel free to delete - I don't want the thread binned on account of me. It's just there's so much I can't understand. So the policy is to accept the virus will happen and push the virus into April/May. Accept that tens of millions will catch it. Accept that hundreds of thousands will need intensive care treatment or die. Manage it as best we can at the time. But hold on. We are constantly told the NHS is already at breaking point. We are told the police force is at breaking point. Actually, people who work in these institutions tell me they are already broken. So fast forward to May. We have a situation where perhaps 10,000 people die of this virus every a week. Now look at Italy. They have had 1000 deaths in a week and they are in a crisis. Are we really going to cope any better than Italy at even 1000 deaths? And at that stage do we go into the lock down? Do people even go into lock down voluntarily because of the crisis? But if lots of police/NHS staff are off sick at that stage, how on earth can they cope? If the schools are not being closed right now because of drain on NHS at a stage where there are very few cases, how is it going to help more if they close the schools later on when the drain on the NHS is far greater and far more children will be infected and therefore passed onto their grandparents? We've already seen stats suggesting that a poor health service could increase the death toll 4 times. If experts estimate a 1% death toll if all works out ok, and perhaps meaning a few hundred thousand deaths - but what about if the NHS crashes completely and 4% is the figure? A million deaths or more? Add to that the every day emergencies not dealt with meaning more people die of other causes. At that stage, the economy will be so far behind in the back of people's minds - the economy will just be completely gone. Surely it just makes sense to try and stop it now, before it happens. Maybe it won't work. Maybe it will just push the peak back a few months. Maybe the disaster I've mentioned above will happen anyway, just later. But why not have a go. Are they absolutely sure it won't work? China has halted the virus - is it absolutely certain it will come back? As good as any scientist is, we do not have a crystal ball in a virus that hasn't happened before and a society that has not been tested with such hardship. I just don't believe our public services are capable of even nearly dealing with such a situation as they are predicting, at least not at the moment. For that reason alone, I do not for the life of me know why we are not even going to try a lock down. They don't know - it might work, it might save a complete crash of everything, maybe a vaccine will arrive quicker than expected. If it doesn't work, all that will happen is what was going to happen anyway. Apologies again to those trying to get away from doomsters. Just need to get it off my chest. Feel free to comment and critique - I won't respond, not because anyone has upset me, because I don't want to derail the thread.

I have tried to adopt a positive attitude to the government approach in this country to Coronavirus, and do understand the stated rationale behind it, at least to a point anyway. I think I said as much the other day in a previous post. But things are moving on way too fast and out of control than one might have been trying, at least, to envisage and this post is very, very different in its overall tone and expression of concern Based on the past form of the very selective approaches of this government according to whichever policy it pigeon-holes as idealistic or realistic, its not without reason to support the view that a more pro-active approach should now be implemented that ensures that the disciplines apparently entrusted on the public to self isolate appropriately etc, as outlined by the government yesterday, are followed through in reality to give more confidence and much needed reassurance that this not just part of a behavioural ideology test. I very much sympathise with the concerns and palpable anxiety expressed from some on this thread that there is a feeling of being part of some kind of 'tough love' experiment in terms of sacrificing numbers of our own to the impact risks of the virus - so as to allegedly claim a future immunological gain in the future and which, in relative terms, is supposed to ease extremely intense pressure on the NHS and gives the most vulnerable better chance of more concentrated protection. Like I say, the rationale is understandable to a point - but the very possible range of realities and dangerous risks is quite another matter It adds weight to those in this thread who are criticised for calling out the government for not doing enough, when too much is being perceived to be weighted on an ideological basis that feels like a socio-medical experiment trial. Trials should be expedited through pushing the vital progress being made with anti viral medicines and vaccines - not by playing roulette with public welfare and lives, The continuing uncertainties, relating to a new virus at large across the globe that has no preventative safety valve against it, and based on some of the very distressing precedents being set in the leading affecting countries it has taken such toll on, merit full attempts by government and supporting health experts (of all expertise persuasion) to be seen to strike a path that is strict enough in ensuring the virus doesn't run riot, at the same time as their preferred approach of 'short term pain, long term gain'. Its a very hard balance to strike, and an unenviable one, but I do support the view that more could be done to lessen the increasing considerable anxiety over this short term pain policy - and the growing feeling of impending doom that accompanies it, of being sentenced to be some kind of survival of the fittest situation where we all hope to see as many of us as possible 'on the other side'. I found the approach and tone of delivery of yesterdays conference deeply disturbing and unsettling in this particular respect. I always try to be one who keeps perspective and prefers not to overreact where possible - whether its to do with weather patterns or any other subject. However I freely admit that my own personal anxiety levels are now very high, and this spectre of an experimental approach vs so many lack of precedents and unknowns worries me considerably individually and in terms of those close to me, let alone as part of any discussion debate -, and just trusting the methodologies as provided through the interpretation of this government, is no longer enough. More pro-active measures are needed in terms of protection, separation and ensuring limited gatherings of people and if this, by way of formal policy issue, means restricting numbers at public events much more strictly than at present, looking at school provisions and public services much more tightly, being officially scrupulous from the top with visits to care homes and associated places of vulnerability, rather than leaving such homes, hospitals etc to fend for and decide for themselves what is best for them, than so be it. The list of possible suggestions is not exhaustive - so those mentioned are merely examples. There is palpable evidence in the 24 hrs since yesterdays official guidance update, that more and more of the public, increasing numbers of business and sporting institutions are making their own decisions some way beyond that of the government. Frankly this is inevitable as it is sensible and vital - the official data is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the stats. I personally welcome these self initiatives to act independently in respect of safety first . We all do have a responsibility to play our part, irrespective of government advice and implemented steps,.and would further hope this this trend keeps growing and growing in the absence of the government not stepping up more than they are. I do get the idea of not imposing draconian measures too soon for all the reasons given in terms of firing all the bullets in one go, so to speak- but it seems obvious to me that this concept has been and gone in terms of any window of opportunity - this thing has a momentum of its own that has already outdated yesterdays advice simply even just by the number of well known people from all walks of life who are coming forward as tested positive. I know that the government advisors suggested they are many more than the official figures, but the approach they are adopting vastly underestimates and under anticipates the pace of change and acceleration, and what inevitably les ahead. There are far too many flashing red warning signals - and surely rapid climb-downs must be coming. Much, much better and more reassuring that they were not forced, but anticipated ahead of time The government is acting, or tying to act, to slow/delay a juggernaut that has already passed its point of no return of control of speed. They need to be more pro-active with this - they are not going to earn the trust of the public in terms of self discipline, if rapidly increasing numbers feel as though they are unwilling victims of what could end up as tantamount to a eugenics exercise. For some more perspective , this will not be popular on these pages and I acknowledge the inevitable brickbats that will come - but it has to be said frankly because it is, and will only become, an ever bigger foreboding backdrop to a year that is not yet 3 months old and is falling apart at the seams more than anyone could have conjectured : The government is fully confident, as stated just today, that it can implement a system-level trade deal by the end of this year and tackle the spiralling crisis of this pandemic at the same time -and continues to rule out easing pressure on the transitional period timetable to do things rationally and properly. This is, so it goes, apparently possible when no-one can be sure that any event, however small, will be going ahead tomorrow because of Coronavirus and when no-one, literally no-one, has the remotest clue what effects it might high impact on the country as a whole (as well as across the world) on both a social/welfare and economic level by the summer let alone by December ! I apologise, it might not be de rigueur these days, and it wasn't long back that experts were seen but not heard - but accountability for actions and decisions matters at all times and most of all in national and global crisis. As based on a humanity crisis that began, metaphorically speaking, as the tiniest ripple over the other side of the world on the last day of 2019 ….but has seismically exploded into a globally monstrous tsunami within 3 months. But while life with Coronavirus is a national and global emergency and shroud of desperate uncertainty with rapidly destabilising hysteria bubbling just below it like a high category tornado supercell about to breach the atmospheric cap - it remains 'business as usual' and utter certainly of clarity months and months ahead when it comes to the sacredness of idealist populism. I did say it wouldn't be popular - but it is a valid and wholly credible perspective of the crisis ahead.

Updated ENS > London snow row 17 for next weekend. 06z > 12z a strong clustering now to cold with the most extreme ENS for the SE PTB 18 @-13c

Afternoon everyone, I can’t help but feel really angry today. I don’t want to be part of this ‘herd immunity’ experiment. Like they said yesterday, lots of people are going to die, people we know and love. I can’t help but feel we should be doing more to stop the spread or make better attempts to slow it rather than all going blindly into this gamble of a plan that the ‘experts’ have come up with. Our our experts more expert than anyone else in the world? As it seems we are on our own with our Current response to Corona. I’ve been reading the WHO daily releases and in pretty much every one they’ve mentioned their concern at the lack of certain countries response. They haven’t pointed a finger but I’ve felt since day 1 this was aimed at the UK. Take this for instance ”despite our frequent warnings, we are deeply concerned that some countries are not approaching this threat with the level of political commitment needed to control it. Let me be clear: describing this as a pandemic does not mean that countries should give up. The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous” from here WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the Mission briefing on COVID-19 - 12 March 2020 WWW.WHO.INT I know we all have choices and can make decisions for ourselves, like to stay away from large public gatherings. We don’t need a government ban for that. I think we need some iron fist ruling though to wake people up and make people realise this is no joke and to not be complacent. This is no cold, this is no flu. This is new and it can be deadly, not to all but certainly to someone you know it could and most likely will be. And at the very least, we need better advice than ‘avoid cruises’ for the elderly and such. We Need good planning in place for things like school closures and child care. it’s easier and better to do when things are calm rather than waiting until everything is totally out of control and desperate. I don’t accept that we should just suck it up and catch it to create ‘herd immunity’ which they don’t even know will work. It Completely goes against my instinct to want to protect and preserve life, not just of my loved ones but of everyone. I had someone say to me today that they think social media has blown this all out of proportion, so I asked if they thought what has happened in China and is happening in Italy, Iran etc and spreading across Europe... is that blown out of proportion? Is it a lie? Is that not real? And they said “I don’t know” People aren’t ready to believe what is right on our doorstep. I honestly don’t know what the answer is but it doesn’t feel right to sit and wait and see what happens. It’s all very reactive rather than proactive. I’m doing everything I can to protect myself and in doing so protect my family and those I may come into contact with. I’ve chosen to avoid a concert at Wembley tonight because I feel it’s too risky. I’ve chosen to lose the money rather than sell the tickets because I feel like I would be putting other people in my place and therefore Putting them at risk. I know that would be their choice but still, it’s not up for debate for anyone now and I’m happy with that. It Sure feels like we’ve all been hung and left out to dry and I can’t get my head around it. Whatever happens though, I do accept that this is going to be grim and life changing for many. Sad times.

Well done Aston Villa - Let's hope others follow

I work for the NHS, I'd say he has put patients at risk of infection simply by travelling on the train wearing his uniform. Hopefully he will change into a clean uniform when he gets to work.

Good summing up and I agree with this. I think the uncomfortable truth is this is now going to infect a lot of people, and probably always was, regardless of what steps were taken. I know many won’t agree with this but I’ve been extremely impressed so far with how the Government has handled things, making sure that the real experts are highly visible and explaining, in person, their rationale for the decisions that are being taken. To expect any Country to be fully in control of this is unrealistic but it feels as though we are doing pretty well up until now. Ironically, I think some of our fears may be eased as more of the population get it and, hopefully, the overwhelming majority of us just experience relatively mild symptoms for a few days. Perhaps we can even start a new thread on here for those who get it and can then give a running update on how they’re feeling? I should add that I don’t want in any to dismiss the tragic losses some poor families will experience before this is over.

How ironic, all these EU countries closing borders, whilst us here trying to leave the EU are keeping ours well and truly open! The world really has been turned on its head in the last 3 months!

@nick sussex it's maddening but sadly we're not going to achieve anything. We are now going to have to sit back and watch, and people like you and me will have to hope we are wrong about the government's plan, and that we aren't going to discover that the most catastrophic event since the war was partly avoidable. I note some on the thread above are criticising doomsday predictions - these predictions are only quoting the government's advisers - up to 80% will get it, 1/5th off work at the peak, 1% death rate. No-one is making this up, it's straight from the horse's mouth. And so it's not unreasonable to say this would be the worst event in the UK since WW2.

ENS beginning to tumble together now

We are the most advanced life form that has ever existed on this planet but how quick we are brought to our knees by something so tiny and seemingly powerless to stop.

Day 10 (it's always Day 10!) would come as a shock to the system!

I do not like this governments policy of 'Herd Immunity' It appears they are wiiling to sacrifice the old and the weak for economic reasons Take procative measures when you are ahead of the curve, don't allow mass gatherings and close schools China has proven that containment is possible with extreme measures - Why can't we do the same ? Looks like the premier league is finished now anyway - Maybe they are waiting for the herds to make decisions for them

I'm going to bed now - I need to switch off from this. Nice music, warm and relaxed dog beside me...it's cold outside -2c! and a good hard frost this morning too.

Italy in lockdown... NBA season suspended in the US golf suspended... no large gatherings in France or Belgium... even lockdown in Denmark despite ZERO confirmed deaths there... how does the UK respond? Like this Cheltenham today..

Although the latest ensembles graphs....Will make you shudder...if spring..is your THING.. That's some support for a cold decline!!!!

Hello, after the chaos of yesterday, rising death tolls, speeches and crashing stock markets.... I had to admit yeah the anxiety due to this pandemic really hit me. This was especially the case today when the thought of my mum catching it, when she had pneumonia last year came across my mind. It's affected me to such an extent I decided not to travel back home from my annual leave as I've been on public transport quite a bit recently and there is always that paranoia about me passing it on. Going back would have also meant going through the London Underground and the thought of that didn't fill me with much cheer. Tough week and it's also made tougher by the fact we hear about the worst side of the coronavirus... Here is a story from a man in his 50s. For a huge majority it will probably sum up the experience of it. He basically said it was a mild fever for him and that for many people it's just a cold but I obviously also want to stress that a challenging time will be coming our way. What does it feel like to have coronavirus? WWW.BBC.CO.UK One of Scotland's first Covid-19 cases describes what it is like to contract and recover from the infection. For what it's worth I don't think quoting unverified accounts on Twitter of 40 year olds in Italy being cast aside for life saving treatment of 30 year olds isn't helpful for anxiety levels and I am of the firm belief it is fake as it goes against all the statistics. I hope this man's account eases the concerns of many on here and in other news, global stock markets have had a huge rebound today which suggests things aren't spiralling out of control. I do worry for our NHS and really hope our government gets this right. There is less for me to feel anxious about today but yeah I still worry about what lies ahead. We can pull through it. I just want this thing gone.

The latest GEM run is definitely for the spring lovers!!

Ah no, she did say her mum was starting to cough when she was told she was positive. Definitely at higher risk age bracket, so hopefully she is ok, though even at that age, still a far better chance of survival than not. Be ready to help the older generation everyone, now is the time we pay them back for alot of things they did during the war and post war era that has helped to keep this country where it is. Obviously follow advice though and if you suspect your ill, make sure you don't expose your illness to them.

Just a little heads up for those of you who suffer with asthma, apperantly as long as you are using your meds as stated there does not seem to be anymore added Complications of the virus.

A lot of people have it all wrong, our approach means more will become infected not necessarily more deaths, during peak the elderly and vulnerable are expected to “cocoon” in their homes. Those younger and healthier will get it limited pressure on health system, and we will see herd immunity when a significant proportion of population gets it. I don’t think something like this has been done before, so it is an “experiment“, but it does make logical sense if you look into it. Our approach also means the epidemic is not likely to be with us for as long as many countries... trust our experts!

Now this is more like it! Bring it on! But, about as likely to materialise as this morning's BFTE charts!

Enough bickering. Any more and posts will get removed. Also, if your method for countering expert opinion is to dismiss them based on their political slant, best not post those opinions either. Deal with the arguments and not their political positions.

Its VERY alarming now, we are now swimming on our own , even WHO don't seem to think its a good idea. The pressure on Chris Witty must be massive.

GFS trends colder still through 144...

Agree. Just pointing out that pandemic control is not the job of virology, they are not medics, their job is in trying to find a cure or vaccine route. Epidemiology is the field that is responsible, and by it's nature has to include aspects of behavioral science.

I've done a bit of it as well with my teaching (in maybe a different field of course!) but I think people often under-estimate how power a tool it is, because the people best at doing it will be doing it to you and you won't even realize its happening. It does seem to be the difference between our tactics and the rest of Europe's though, can't think of any other reason why we are so different.

Chris Whitty is a physician and epidemiologist who works in public health, science policy and clinical medicine. Previously Professor of Public and International Health and now hororary professor at LSHTM. Currently Chief Medical Officer for England and chief medical adviser to the UK government, Chief Scientific Adviser Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and head of the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). Consultant NHS physician at UCLH and The Hospital for Tropical Diseases. Gresham Professor of Physic (the term for medicine when the post was created in 1597), Gresham College. Interim Government Chief Scientific Adviser, head of theGovernment Office for Science and head of the government science and engineering profession 2017-18. Chief Scientific Adviser, UK Department for International Development (DFID) 2009-2015. Worked as a clinician and in research in the UK, Africa and Asia. Postgraduate training in epidemiology (MSc LSHTM, DTM&H), economics (MBA, DipEcon), medical law (LLM).

With no apologies, I'm putting this up again. Very helpful, particularly point 3: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/mental-health-considerations.pdf?sfvrsn=6d3578af_2

One last point. I think it was Dr Hilary this morning who said that at present there is no test to tell whether someone has had the virus once they have fully recovered. If his is the case, what's the point of testing people who don't have any symptoms? They might have already been infected, recovered and are now immune.

Playing with peoples lives and handing a death sentence to a lot of old vunreable people is the way I am now seeing it now this should not be allowed to happen, I have grandparents in there 90s with underlying issues it's all very worrying

That’s the message . Likely to lead to people taking less precautions and a more laissez faire attitude . Its almost like the public’s duty now is to get the virus but hopefully not to kill too many older people along the way . Soon there will be let’s get the virus parties !

It is all getting very panic stricken/dramatic in here - you would think the grim reaper is about to pay us all a visit. @CreweCold for example you look about 25 to 30 years old - I’m sure you will be fine. I was in Ibrox last night with forty seven and a half thousand people - terrible result/performance but grateful I was able to watch my team in Europe with such a huge crowd. (Including 1000/1500 Germans) Most other clubs played behind closed doors or not at all. I seen hundreds of ladies and gents over the age of 65 - all having a great time, singing and hugging strangers when Rangers scored. Everyone I know/see in my town going about their daily business as usual. 10 confirmed cases (as of yesterday) for the region my area falls under. (Greater Glasgow and Clyde - population over one million) I think until more testing takes place/cases rise significantly or the Government make a move to more serious action...all will carry on as normal. I will be heading to Ibrox on Sunday for the game vs Celtic - once again in front of fifty thousand fans. (At the moment! ) I wish you all the best of health and maybe one or two should quarantine themselves from this thread for a day or two - just my opinion as it can’t be good for those of you who suffer any kind of mental illness/health. Have a good day.

The ECM 0z operational is looking increasingly settled during the second half of the run as a big powerful anticyclone builds in over the top of the U.K.

I doubt that it's a case of "hoping that as many young people get the disease as possible" - otherwise they wouldn't be telling people to self-isolate if they have symptoms that might be Covid-19 but could also be an ordinary cold. It's called the "delay" phase, so presumably they're hoping for a relatively slow rate of transmission that might lead to more cases in the short term but a lower total number of cases in the long run, a case of "short term pain for long term gain" by softening the extent of a probable second wave this autumn, which is likely to be before a vaccine for it gets widely distributed. This isn't saying it's right or wrong, but I can see where it's coming from.

If people are interested, at work (chemistry lab) we just made up our own hand sanitizer You can get recipes on the internet, but it's just alcohol and a thickener / moisturizer (to stop it evaporating too quick + drying your skin too much). We tried various mixtures and settled on 70% surgical spirit (denatured ethanol / booze alcohol) / 15% glycerin and 15% propylene glycol by volume. Likewise aloe vera gel can be used instead of glycerin / propylene glycol if you have posh hands. Glycerin and propylene glycol are vapouriser liquids / food grade, so you can get everything on ebay / amazon now easy. They are both edible, but don't drink the stuff (I'm talking to you HC!) as the denatured alcohol will make you sick. Please follow appropriate H&S, and I take no responsibility for the mess you make in the kitchen.

Using the 240 hour plus range models (examples from 144 to 216 hours), the 00Z GFS, 00Z GEM and 00Z ECMWF is going for this solution... 00Z GFS 00Z ECMWF 00Z GEM All showing High Pressure and some increased heights building over the UK from the West later next week. While the area High Pressure ends up over isn’t the same on all three models towards 216 hours, at least some good agreement between these 3 operational models for the weather to settle down. The Atlantic getting beat up! It’s possible as the High makes a move from the West towards the UK, it could pull in a temporary chillier shot between the North-West and North over the UK. Perhaps with a few odd wintry showers towards the North of the UK before the ridging from the Atlantic becomes in control. As some addressed, it seems somewhat unclear exactly where the High may migrate to. Though most operational models above have it staying over the UK (ECMWF). Or going just to the North East towards Scandinavia (GFS), pulling in a cold, and probably mostly dry, Easterly. Consequently, the place the High Pressure goes to affecting how cool or mild it could get. Indeed as Sleety talks of. Though a few flurries would probably move in from the East affecting some Southern and Eastern areas of the UK on that GFS run. The 00Z GEFS ensemble mean showing good support for High Pressure to build around the UK area from the West. Examples again between 144 to 216 hours: And then the possibility of the High moving more towards Eastern UK. While there is good support, the High Pressure that the models illustrate coming in from the West to come in at a high enough latitude, as it escapes from Newfoundland and find its home over the UK: An outlook that some of us I feel are really longing for. But whether something cold or wintry, or something less cool or milder, depending on individual preferences. A game of cat and mouse it’s felt like the last few months hunting down some of our desired weather types!

May I ask what that actually means?

Hello everyone. The world hasn't actually ended yet. It's awful I know, but I think we just have to carry on. So to the pub run... T240: Well a Scandi high will benefit some of those who have been affected by flooding beyond that who knows? And T252 in the strat, Decimation....so the strat vortex finally dies? Just when we probably need warmer weather...but no guarantee that hot weather would fix the virus anyway...we just don't know.