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About 4 or 5 inches fell pretty widely yesterday so didn’t get snowed in @Mr Frost but that was a good thing as it was really glorious to be outside earlier, these from Tullochgrue this morning. Plenty people out enjoying the serene conditions. After so much harsh weather lately it was nice to see it take a wee breather and roll the sun out

Really not worth looking at snow depths, let alone where it may snow. Think some moderation of excitement required for such a marginal situation and uncertainty of track for the low Thursday morning. GFS has a habit of overcooking low depths, even this far out. The deeper the low the further north it tracks. UKMO was closest with the track of yesterday's low that brought snow in the north in the morning at 3 or 4 days out, GFS was too deep and thus too far north initially. Both 06z UKV and 00z EC take a shallower low through the Channel / far north of France. how much the heaviest precip along wrap around occlusion overlaps cold air at the suface on northern flank of low will be crucial, too light and it'll fall mostly rain or sleet. MO forecast for SE mentions wet snow, so the risk certainly there, though suspect higher ground such as the Downs, Chilterns, High Weald etc most likely to see any settling if precipitation is heavy and allows evaporative cooling. Light winds would be advantageous for evaporative cooling too.

To many are doubting the mighty GFS on here... ECM and icon and UKMO, move aside, the American kids no best! The 12z ain't backing down... Good on ya mate.

This low is going to be what I call a “Chuckle Brother” low......”to me - to you”. Final track/intensity yet to be decided.

Yes - another step in the right direction, anyone else starting to get more interested in the bigger prize in the second half of March rather than the scraps of the plate in a pizza hut over the next few days?

summer - june/july autumn - august - february winter - march spring - april / may

Only one outcome from there.

It's cloudy now and intermittently pishing down with cold rain in Moffat, but in a break about an hour ago, the warmth from the sunlight falling on my hands, neck and face reminded me that Spring is just around the corner.

The big question is will it, or won't it this morning! GFS says we are in the game for some snow on Thursday, ECM and UKMO not so positive! Would be great to see a December 2107 redux though.. And just like then I think this one will go down to the wire! Expect a fair few tweaks during the next 24hrs...I have also just noticed another potential snow maker at the very depths of the 6Z run, no dramas counting that down then! Wishful hunting folks.... Just like the post code lottery... Alot of cheer maybe soon coming to front door near you!

Well it is actually snowing here so I've seen the first falling snow of winter. Pity it's not very heavy and the ground is utterly saturated - would need pretty intense precipitation for it to settle but I suppose actually seeing a flake this winter is a triumph hah.

Went for a shower half an hour ago to no snow and came out to this!

Turned out to be a cracking sunny day with just a little high cloud. Very pleasant to be out in as there's little to no wind.

Freezing and misty with half-frozen slush everywhere - very pale and eerie at first light.

Wet snow froze overnight and left us with 3cm up here, but it disappears about 50m lower down the hill. We also dipped below freezing (-0.5C) last night, which really shouldn't be newsworthy, but this is a winter when we've only had FIVE air frosts!! Usually well into the 20s and 30s. Very odd.

Aye its all my fault...sorry everyone for the huge let down of the snaw event.. Looks like the Met Office was correct...unfortunately. Around midday the ground temperature was 3.4deg/C zero chance of snaw lying on that for any length of time. Before I left for work this morning I set up my action camera to capture any snowfall...this is as good as it got.

A mostly sunny day here and quite cool with a max of just over 4C. A couple of unforecasted showers this afternoon which may have had a convective element as there was definitely a bit of heat in the sun. Meanwhile a nice picture from up the Birks at Aberfeldy this morning from a old neighbour.

These showers to the west are just starting to catch my location, and they are snow. Lying on the grass, but not hard surfaces.

Let’s see how this turns out. Had a wee light snow shower just before sunset earlier. Edit: Stunning pictures below @Northern Strath - my personal favourites are the third, fourth and sixth one! Christmas card scenes! Glad to hear you did not get snowed in and got a perfect day for a walk about in it!

Looks like its snowing down to sea level on IOM, very promising.

Not on my watch it won't Feb!

-4 to -2C on this mornings commute, with mist lying in the valleys. Still plenty of now slightly frozen snow lying at home but very little in Inverurie. Car was vibrating at certain speeds this morning, hopefully just frozen snow stuck somewhere and nothing more sinister after yesterdays snow plough impression.

Looking into the GEFS 0z Crystal Ball it seems the best chance of more sustained benign weather is towards mid March but interestingly potential for a wintry blast too. In the meantime, it’s sunshine and showers, wintry in places, especially on hills for the next few days and slight frosts with icy patches, there is also a chance of wet snow for a time further south / southeast into Thursday before further wet and windy weather returns by the weekend.

If I was still in Sussex I’d be throwing a major strop by now ! So I totally understand the frustration for those in the snow wilderness . Anyway putting aside the Channel Low . The GFS looks interesting , I’m sure I’ve said that a hundred times this winter and the interest just ends up that ! The models seem to be struggling with the low over the UK and those small wedges so each run throws up a different evolution . One constant though is the upstream troughing moving east and then the jet angling se .

Off topic from the snow there was some stunning mammatus clouds earlier near crick, Northamptonshire. Pics aren't edited at all. It looked even better in person.

First air frost since 12 Feb tonight. Currently 0.0°C and modest snow cover. Twenty sixth this season.

Starting to lay on cars and grass

ECM optimal track for the SE thurs > Rain to snow event! Snow earlier here 240M West Kingsdown

The 12z HIRLAM: Or to sum this up cumulative snow to T48: I like the HIRLAM for two reasons, first it is a good short term model for precipitation. In my opinion, but second, it only runs to T48 so if we're talking about it we must de facto be in with a shout, the reason I post it is that there is some snow interest at short range, within 48 hrs, modest interest but the interest is there. And it would be the first time this winter for many, just days before the curtain falls...and the snowy spring season begins - well just hoping for a last, well only, snow fix before the warm season...

Not too much to do though.... No offence tiff couldn't agree more re the guys, I have a timeshare in Aviemore which has a real buzz to it these days and plenty activities and a close drive to the cairngorm or Loch morlich and to a large city Inverness.... Really has a bit of everything.

Clinging desperately to that thought Ross!

The good thing at least is it’s now very unlikely the low could miss the UK which sometimes happens and would be just an insult to coldies to add to the crud winter ! The sweet spot for snow still needs to be nailed down and will certainly keep this thread buzzing !

here I think the Arpege is overcooking the low by around 100\150miles too North....but speculation atm...and as again...fun 1 to decipher \watch unfold!...the English chanel is a filter\syphon for these and tends to draw them in\down

Wintry showers already in western areas will continue throughout today although later this afternoon and through this evening an area of rain, sleet and snow likely moves east through Wales and into southern or central areas mainly a wintry mix to lower levels but some snow on higher ground is possible even in these areas, wintry showers continue for northern Ireland, Scotland and Western areas of England and Wales tonight with a few perhaps moving into central parts of England at times but generally becoming drier especially in the east. Icon.. Rain, Sleet and snow showers continue tomorrow mainly for northwestern parts especially Scotland and Northern Ireland. Rain probably moves east or northeast across England and Wales on Thursday morning on the northern edge of this a mix of rain, sleet and snow is possible for a time to lower levels with a spell of snow on higher ground but the track, timing and intensity is a little uncertain atm. Arpege.. Icon..

Not really looked lately as there is no real changes into March, the tPV dominating with no HLB'ing. Any wedges tend to move within that westerly flow so no sustained minor blocking getting into the reliable. So wet, cool, windy at times for my locale. The Thursday low an M4 north event most likely as we would expect: Any snow settling over hills in the Midlands will be gone within hours. Saturday sees another possible snow event to higher ground but too early to pinpoint most at risk. On the GFS 0z little respite from further rain events with maybe some wintry stuff to the usual suspects but for the SE a washout and although further chances of snow the margins are very fine (D10 an example) though the M4 corridor look to be on the right track for these repeated attempts: The mean uppers hovering a degree or two below the average from D4 onwards with few options in the ensembles for anything colder in my area: TBH a nice warm early Spring is preferable to more rain and a cool flow, but I suppose some may see some fleeting snow but a bit of a wimper as the model heads towards mid-March.

wrf has snow for here and a few other places through the night but I dont know if I have the energy left to get my hopes up again and @Mr Frost tomorrow looks a great day for you for taking cloud pics with lots of showers with sleet, snow and thunder all possible ?️ This before it melts in the morning current temps here 1.2 C / DP 0.7 C

Love the emoticon ! That’s so funny . I’m staying well out of this , it could get ugly in here !

This Will be welcome after a miserable wet winter if it comes off.

Well the gfs 18z still going for a snowy Thursday. But will it be right

Can we PLEASE have ONE day when it doesn’t sodding RAIN?!!!

I will never do that - well below average temps with very high precipitation all year around for me.

Quite a few wedges popping up in the GEFS. The models still seem unsure as to what happens with low pressure over the UK after day 5. The control run almost produces a throwback to Feb 1996.

Come to Papa!

@March soon to be the UK most notorious winter month!??? @trending

You might have no interest in the ECM(The best model) but to say there was no HLB in the output this morning was wrong. I would also say the mean you post above shows lows possibly disrupting under a HLB forming to the NE.

Left the house in sleet to walk the hounds and after two thunder claps it has turned to heavy snow.

Met office text forecast Today Plenty of wintry Showers some falling as snow even to low levels Thunder possible In the heavier showers Tonight Frequent heavy showers turning increasingly to snow showers may band together to Give local accumulations of snow. Manchester airport TAF backing the above up. Going to busy day and night in here I think. C.S