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Firstly great exciting posts guys... Secondly I'm out of reactions... 3rdly the man from GFS snow charts says... Yessssssssss!! And finally... Come onnnnnnn...

Good to see we've got some wintry stuff to talk about at long last! I'm not sure I'm sold on the Thursday event yet, though, for the south which is the area in question. ARPEGE 12z has this at the key timescale of T66: Agreed it is a bit further south, but the precipitation isn't snow, except over higher ground. A look at the PEARP ensemble suggests the following from the 6z out to T90, i.e. up to including Thursday, for cumulative snow, not lying snow, at 10%, 50%, 90% and 100% of the probability distribution. Going to take something for that system to deliver snow to the south as it passes, I would think, the snow shown for the north or Scotland will be from different features. So, at the moment the channel low is a 10% significant snow chance for those areas that might get snow from such a scenario....we hope for upgrades!!

Looking at a selection of GEFS 12z postage stamps I think it’s fair to say there is more wintry weather on the way this week and of course today brought disruptive snow for some of us...about time this winter woke up..better late than never!..good luck my fellow coldies.

It took a long time to get going but the snow is now coming down thick and fast, helped by the temperature dropping to 0c - mesmerising to watch, though kids think I'm mad going out to measure it...

Height is king today. Left Portsoy about 15:30 where it had been moderate sleety rain most of the day, but didn't need to go far inland for the temp to drop 2 or 3c and it to turn to falling and lying snow. Roads slushy in places up to and beyond Huntly. Didn't seem too bad though so decided to head short way over the hill. Roads still slushy up to Kennethmont, but got increasingly snowy, and deep through Clatt. Road over Suie Hill was deep with snow, worse I've been over it in, but I made it. Even with 4WD and all season tires I had wheels spinning a little on uphill. Called wife to tell her to avoid it. That was completely green at 8am. Got up the drive at the house with a little sliding. I'd estimate 10—15cm lying, a bit wet and heavy but easily the most this winter. Still falling with a decent intensity. Oh and snow plough went past going up the hill as I was clearing the driveway for my wife, who was about 15mins behind me and had gone the 'long way around' via Rhynie.

Raining when I left the office in Aberdeen. Slightly different at home 20200224_164712.mp4

Well the ens are really going for it now...and are even better than the last 4 suites...@6z.. Our best opportunity by far yet!

Saturday looking very interesting. Hope this happens . But I won’t get my hopes up as it’s the gfs .

Ahead of Thursday's low potentially bringing a wintry mix across the south in the morning, besides sleet and snow showers for the usual suspects of Scotland, Ireland/N. Ireland and N England in a cold W or NWly flow, a cold front pushes E/SE tomorrow afternoon across UK with winds veering from westerly ahead the CF to northwesterly behind it introducing increasingly cold air with showers turning increasingly wintry across all parts in the evening and Tuesday night. So don't be surprised even in the south to see some wet snow in the heavier showers after dark - as a few troughs bring bands of showers through. IMO even a dusting possible in some spots in the south overnight, but probably mainly over hills. Bigger accumulations over western and northern hills - as to be expected in this regime.

Regarding Thursday’s Low - looking at the 06Z GFS, 06Z ICON, 00Z UKMO, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z GEM, 00Z NAVGEM and 06Z ARPEGE (below in that sequence): ...have tried to draw an overall average position of that Low at the bottom of this post from all the operational models above. Due to the time-frame, it’s a bit difficult to judge where that Low would head through the UK on that UKMO run (but assume it would probably take a track through the Southern Counties of the UK, or maybe possibly up towards Central Midlands). You can see though all the models above vary in their track and area the Low heads through. But the Southern portion of the UK probably looks the favourite track currently. Further South it goes, the less marginal it could become for falling sleet or snow over Southern UK. However, too far South and the rain/sleet or snow could miss the UK completely. So certainly some fine lines their! Mean current average where the Low may head through on Thursday:

Definitely tricky driving as Ravelin mentioned. Here's a video of the Aberdeen to Alford road around Tillyfourie. Slightly further on, the X5 with winter alloys and tyres slid into the oncoming lane. Speed was around 20mph and thankfully no oncoming traffic. A passenger recorded the footage 20200224_154049_1.mp4

12Z GFS track for Thurs AM.

The ICON EU model develops the snow a bit later so as the low starts to clear east . It does show a band of snow running from around Bristol into the London area around the M4 south . Some more scattered snow showing up further north .

12z EC shifted Thursday's low quite a bit further north compared to the 00z run, track now similar to UKV and GFS. Looks very marginal for snow on northern flank of low across S/SE England + E Anglia: 12z EC Thurs 06z + 09z 15z UKV Thurs 09z Personally don't think it'll be cold enough for snow to settle away from high ground such as N + S Downs and Chilterns. But maybe be some wet snow mixed in at lower elevations if heavier enough.

Just on the snow level today at 300 feet a.s.l. with light to moderate snow in the last couple of hours though not settling well as yet .A light to moderate east wind for a change at 1c just now. Winter has arrived

Saturdays feature

Taken a while to get going but nice to see it finally sticking!

BBQ weather already !!!!

At least you had snow on the ground today! Plus you have experienced a frost in Luxembourg and snowfall in Nashville recently! Oh and that wonderful snowman from last week or the week before! Same goes for @CatchMyDrift with snow to his knees up Glen Ogle last week and snow on the ground this morning. Spare a thought for us poor folk who have not even seen a cm of settling snow this Winter. Keep the faith my fellow snow starved Scots - our time will come...probably next Winter!

Just sleety rain here all day. Max was 3.0C and now 1.5C but still rain. An acquaintance posted this picture of the A826 this morning not long after the plough had been through. It is at 300 mtrs asl though. The poles marking the edge of the road do come in handy at times.

We had some sleet and snow showers in the morning but it didn't settle at low level still just on the hills. Today has been cloudy but mostly on the dry side.

I guess we'll just need to wait a while for the first real signs of spring. But, after weeks of gales, lashing rain, mud, filth and, of course, phantom snowfalls, I hope it'll be worth the wait!? And what a boon this would be, for those us who work in the fields? As long as it doesn't get push back and back and back and back, until it's too late...like snow!

A better overview

I quiet like the op and mean at(yes i know)day ten trough digging into NW Europe and keeping us on the cool to cold side of the jet,i am sure there will be some wintry surprises through the week and into next.

These Channel lows always guarantee a good turnout in here ! They’re also a complete pain to forecast and drive nw members crazy ! If we had a low coming up against a block the tendency is often to edge them south. We don’t have that block so what happens is really up in the air . The timing if this low lands is pretty good coming during the night , and earlier cleared skies should allow temps to dip ahead of the precip.

I'm basically going to sulk until June.

Below 0c. Once above it is slush and drip drip. Think we may be turd polishing a little given this represents the best of winter 2020! Pretty poor really.....marginal slush fest.

Graupel now. Good eh, getting all teknikal.

Come up here - you can all play in my garden

Aye, settling well at Dreghorn, but slushy here at Riccarton. There's quite a bit of snaw in the borders, it seemed to get progressively heavier as it passed over. I kindae followed it during the commute. Edit Ootside lauder post office earlier.

YES! ty xx He was so wrapped up he looked like the Mummy. Bet he's more Yeti when he comes back lol

Here she comes

The return of the wedge ! Another strange looking run , shortwaves all over the place , a slack pattern over the UK . Could get interesting later . Damn that stupid shortwave to the north which phases with the upstream trough !

Hello Sleety thanks for your reply. No it wasn't a wind up but a genuine question. I could see the LP fairly south, but wondered if the "ouch" comment by the poster to whom I replied was astonishment at what he perceived to be a brilliant chart for snow or a "ouch" of disappointment or despair. I will take your advice and keep an eye on how it all pans out, Kind regards Dave

Melting sleet sliding down my window now - the car had a steady 1.5C for my drive back to the digs and there was no lying snow to be seen anywhere up to about 150m. All fairly pish really, especially as I had an afternoon out in it planned to coincide with its arrival. Oh for a decent northerly. They seem to be lost in the mists of time now.

Temperature dropped in the last half-hour or so by 0.5c, down to 0.4c. Doesn't sound a lot but it has made a big difference for the snow as its now steadily accumulating even though the precipitation rate is the same as the last few hours. Depth now 1.5cm and local roads turning white so going to be a interesting commute home for some.

Some interest with the 6z ens showing some height rises in the right places! All in all a week to keep glued to the latest forecasts, much uncertainty over the track of low pressure this weekend! One thing I will say is.... This must be the first time this winter things show a little promise! It won't be desperately cold, but we don't need desperate, just the right side of marginal for the white stuff... One thing for sure is it will be feeling alot colder than we have become accustomed to! Fingers crossed for later this week.. And on parting note, the recent warm up over the Antarctica left apart of the continent literally ice free... Pretty amazing, but not necessarily in a good way.

The Channel Low evolution this morning from the 06 hrs outputs out so far . Compared to their 00hrs runs . GFS further south Arpege further north Icon further north The stakes would be higher if it was a guaranteed snow maker on its northern flank , it’s marginal but I suppose it would still be better if it did land so we could see what happened !

Only about a cm or so settled, and it's easing off, but it looks like winter outside so I'll take it

Very latest in hi-res sat pics I've just captured from Meteor M-N2 satellite. It went right over mu house Basically the UK is under all this cloud. If you get rain or snow it's in that clump for sure.

Aye, steady moderate snaw here. Lying on everything, roads included. Maybe 1.5 cm deep now.

Snow and gusty winds here. Started 5am.

Bad planning but travelling south today and this is Durham just now. Hopefully there will be plenty left back home when I get back Wednesday

This winter can f'ck off now! Raining!

I would've put my mortgage on it. The UK has the worst climate of anywhere in the world IMO. Endless, unrelenting autumn.

I stayed awake til 12.45am but gave up as there was no sign of wintriness at all. Woke to find a significant fall in the early hours. Really surprised!

5cm on all surfaces, 7cm on grass in NW Leeds. Turned to rain now though.

Temp fallen 0.5C in last ten minutes and now wet snow.