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This wave would almost secure a cold first half of March I wonder if March could be the coldest month of all 4 !

Just in case those not very au fait with model outputs and how they get interpreted, the deep cold and warmth commented on in two posts above are for SIXTEEN days ahead. Fun to drool or get upset over but in terms of them occurring less than our Prime Minister doing the full deal on Brexit in the time scale he suggests! Sorry about the politics.

Just shows how bad things are when we are lording -1c at 7am in February.

Looking through the GEFS 6z postage stamps there is certainly increasing potential for snow next week, and not only confined to high ground further north so there may be some in places that haven’t seen a flake yet this winter...fingers crossed!?️

Would it surprise you Steve?? Seems to have been a slight trend for unseasonably late wintry weather over the past decade or so.

Relentless zonality this season,no pertuberations or weaker vortex yet in forecast,just a terrible winter season full stop.Cant wait for spring. A lesson to learn not to look at zonal wind forecast and MJO on GFS 5+ days

Never fear, Day Nine is here!

Flooding in Paisley after a very wet morning.

A very wet day to come today, especially in the north, where heavy rain and strong winds could cause disruption. Friday morning On Friday morning, areas of heavy rain will be present over Northern Ireland, Scotland, and northern England. This rain will be especially heavy over the hills, where disruption is possible. Along with the heavy rain will be strong winds, with 30-40mph gusts possible, perhaps causing further disruption. Some of the rain over the hills of Scotland could turn into sleet/snow. In the south of England and Wales, it will be a dry start to Friday morning, with the winds not as strong in the north. It will be a cloudy morning however, especially in Wales, where the odd patch of light rain/drizzle is possible. It will be a cold start, with temperatures in the morning ranging from 2-7c in the south, and ranging from 3-8c in the north. Friday afternoon On Friday afternoon, the rain will still be present over Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England, and also Wales would be getting some rain in the afternoon onwards. This rain once again will be heavy over the hills of these places. Some sleet/snow is once again possible over the hills of Scotland. Over southern England though, they should see a drier afternoon, not particularly sunny, but it will be a cloudy afternoon with the odd patch of drizzle/rain possible. Temperatures in the afternoon over in the south should range from 7-12c. And in the north, the temperatures should range from 4-11c. Friday evening/overnight On Friday evening/overnight, the rain over Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and Wales will still be present, with the heaviest of the rain being over the hills of these places. Disruption is possible from the amount of rain it produces, and along with the heavy rain, strong winds is still possible, gusting around 30-40mph in places. Friday overnight, however, will see some showers packing into Scotland and Northern Ireland. Should they be heavy, hail and thunder is possible, along with some of the showers merging into longer spells of rain. Due to the low temperatures, these showers could produce some snow in the north of Scotland. Elsewhere, it will be a cloudy and mostly dry night, with once again, the odd drizzle/rain patch can't be ruled out. It will be mild in places in the night, with temperatures ranging from 7-10c in the south, and 2-10c in the north. Enjoy the rest of your morning!

The eps seem more keen on snowfall of some description over the next fortnight than I have seen thus far

Looking at the GEFS 0z postage stamps, snow could be coming to a backyard near you next week and even beyond!

Another wild morning. WSWly 38mph gusting 51mph at Leuchars. 7c/5c I know we’re used to unsettled weather and high winds but the last couple of weeks have been bad.

Probably the first chart this winter that I have seen that actually shows the fabled Thames Streamer kicking in on an ENEly. Oh well we can dream.

Indeed it does, feb...And look at those uppers (26C?) building down south!

We maybe stuck in endless Wstlys but at times with a NW element there will be wintry opportunities! The North could see some decent snow amounts at times... Kudos for them, also potentially deep low pressure anchored to the N/NW next weekend could bring some fun and games in places! It's along way off, but worth highlighting! Infact the entire GFS 6z run remains on a relatively cool note. So it's a far cry from last year's mini heatwave!! Considering we still have a monstrous pv located to the NW, it's decent enough we will still be in alwith a shout of some of the white stuff... And I still feel March will deliver as that vortex finally diminishes..

Apart from 16-days' alternating cold-mild zonality, I really don't know what to make of today's GFS 00Z...? But, there is one teeny weeny quantum of solace, at T+384: And that only leaves the most important question: will it be cold enough for snow? Maybe yes, maybe no!

stunning light after a monsoon-like shower about 5pm today.

Good god the GFS 12z really does throw the cat among the pigeons... Even manages to throw up a NE wind and a potential snow maker come the 8th March.. I said when Winter started, the GFS may overplay colder snaps in FI, especially as this new FV3 model still seems to overplay uppers especially from the W/NW quadrant!! And low and behold this holds true... Parctice what you preach matt... Don't be suckered in by tempting snow charts beyond a week.... Thing is when there is nothing showing at day 5 for weeks on end.... We have to find something to satisfy the urge! Maybe, just maybe one of these days, the good old GFS will nail one of these sypnotics at day 10,and then count them down!! Anyway it's nearly spring, so it's sods law the conditions may become colder.

Possible storm coming on Monday for Scotland but there's still come uncertainty over it as explained in this video So what do the models show this evening? Well between the GFS, ECM and ICON all show a similar track with the low passing over highlands, Which would mean the strongest winds would be over the central belt from about 12pm to 9pm on Monday I think it would bring very strong gusts inland as the low pressure is passing right over Scotland most of the lows and storms we've had this winter have been out in the Atlantic this time it looks like it's going to actually move over inland. So what gusts can we expect? Between the GFS, ECM and ICON they show mainly 60 to 70mph with some exposed parts much higher it's difficult to say at this stage and would need to wait until the day before when the higher res models give a clearer picture on what to expect it could still downgrade and not come to much or move North as the video mentions and wouldn't be as bad. GFS 12z take on the gusts, 12pm 60 to 70 mph in the South West possibly just under 80mph for exposed parts, 3pm Similar wind speed speeds but moving further inland, 6pm and 9pm Widespread gusts over 60mph inland with exposed parts over 70mph, 12am Tuesday winds start to ease in the West but still remain strong in the East with 60mph gusts still being widespread for many parts,

I cannot remember a wetter day for a long time here. Roads are awash, water pouring off the fields. Castle Semple Loch at Lochwinnoch is the highest I've seen it by a long way in the 15 years I have lived in the area. Its fair to say my normal route home was off tonight.

Once again any amplification shown bites the dust . The pattern now becoming flatter with every run . Even crumbs aren’t being thrown out now to close winter with at least something resembling that season . Clearly the models are underestimating the PV at the medium range and so we see some temporary amplified solutions before reality hits . The GFS 06 hrs now onto another likely wild goose chase in its FI .

Yes Pete, UKV take for Monday.. Maybe some leading edge snow over high ground, But the main headline will be the wind and rain as you say in all the places it's needed least.

Tomorrow looks like being a wintry affair. Unfortunately the Lochnagar hike has been cancelled due to weather - 60mph winds and heavy snow = potential disaster. Have to make do with the local hills.

Another deep, cold Atlantic depression forecast for the 29th February according to the GFS: 500s 850s This could bring freezing temperatures, a lot of rain, possibly snow for some and more high winds as shown in the GFS 0.25 HR charts: This could all change before the end of the month, of course, but the GFS was predicting deep depressions at least six days ahead of both storm Ciara and Dennis so I am inclined to take notice when these sort of charts appear. These conditions might not materialise or they could be diluted - or amplified - by the end of next week. Either way it will be interesting to see if the GFS has modelled this correctly.

Quite a lot of snow could be possible late next week. (Because the GFS thinks so, as it is obviously the most RELIABLE model out there ) The GFS 18z shows some cold arctic air arriving from the north on days 8 and 9, as it has so in the last 3-4 runs: BUT, the GEM 12z disagrees, showing that the plume of arctic air will only be on day 8: Back to the GFS, the 12z run shows how much snow could be possible: And the 18z run shows how much snow could be possible: However, the GEM says 'No thanks!' with an angry expression: Lastly... the GFS shows a band of rain bumping into some cold air and producing some fairly heavy snow at the start of March! And if you spring lovers are getting a bit hungry for some dry, mild and settled weather, then days 15 and 16 are showing some of that!! Obviously, as these are quite far out, they are not meant to be taken seriously. Just for the fun!

This is not a dig at anyone as i will not do that on here so don't be offended but this is more of a sensible approach as in terms of ppn charts,there is no point in looking at the ppn charts at that range(29th Feb),that's nine days away,when snow is forecast it is best to stick to now-casting and lamp post watching in the night ha! ha!,looking for trends that far out,yes as in terms of predicted 500's and 850's plus wet bulb figures and dew-points needs to be 0c or colder but you could get away with slightly milder wet bulbs and dew-points if the conditions are favorable such as continental flow or battleground scenario's anyway i will leave that subject alone now and focus on next week,this is the best shot to come next week as the PFJ tilts more on the axis veering more on a NW>SE trajectory injecting more of a PM feed,this looks more notable than the recent weeks just gone,here i do wish that we can all get in on the act of some proper winter weather and next week might deliver,we hope. there is no hens teeth left by the way laters.

Some photos I took today! And also, I looked at the satellite image on Sat24. Does anyone know what this line of cloud is over the UK? I looked at the jet stream and it looks like some sort of front.

It wouldn't be a massive surprise - as there really isn't much to beat out of the 3 winter months.

The Tweed valley in front of my home has flooded five times since we moved here in July 2017. Three of those five times has been in the last two weeks. From 3am tomorrow for seven whole days, my temps only range between -2C and a few hours of 3C on one day forecast. Sleety mix it is.

12z GFS ends severely cold with a biting NE wind.

Obviously this won't verify, but the GFS is still showing some cold arctic air arriving from the north on day 8 - as it has so in its last 2-3 runs.

To be honest, I might not trust any chart that suggests snow if it is within 5 days. If you trust a chart which shows snow and it's on day 6 onwards then it will just change. I can name way too many examples of this happening. In fact, this happens every week.

The simple explanation is that it is not currently in London, other than the few reported cases that have probably been successfully isolated. Korea is a useful cautionary tale in this regard. 2nd Feb it had 15 cases. Ten days later on 12th it had 28 cases half of which travelled to Korea already infected Six days later on the 18th (Tuesday gone) it had risen to only 31, all seems stable and contained. Today - 3 days further on, they are at 204 cases. When it slips it's leash it is off and running.

...when you are stuck in a cyclic pattern, endless westerly's, then there are only a few chances for disruption. The tPV Final Warming (sometime away one would guess) or tropical forcing to maybe disturbing that westerly motion? An MJO signal that impacts would lead to extreme cold to mid-lats so searching for that to become a driver is hopecasting, I agree, but what else do we have, apart from coming back in November!

But we do learn, IDO: FI is called FI for a very good reason. And why hang-on to every MJO 'prediction' anyway? IMO, the MJO is merely one, out of myriad, potential indicators, of what the future might hold... There's a lot of warm air on that chart...for the time of year?

Even the ECM has been doing this so both are next to useless past day 7 . There are some winters where you can have more faith in more medium term amplified solutions as they’re underpinned by background signals . I’d say at this stage I wouldn’t even trust anything unless it has cross model support within day 6. The eastern USA storm which was supposed to exit slowly from there is now rushing through as the pattern flattens. As for the GFS snow forecasts I’d rather read the tea leaves!

A lot of rain likely, next Monday. And all in the places where it's needed least:

Very disturbed 00z runs. Wind/rain/hill snow up north next week.

GFS 00z has the PV running at record strength almost every day from now until the 8th March - with 100% ensemble agreement on a strong vortex right out to day 16: We're stuck in this rotten pattern for quite a while longer it seems. Absolutely sick to death of it now.....will the PV just vamoose please. More wind, rain and flooding incoming. Pressure ensembles looking very cyclonic:

Very windy here too been roaring round the house all night. Currently 7c

It's certainly going to be cold enough on occasions next week for snow, but also marginal too, so the forecast will change several times before Monday. In the meantime, today we have windy and very mild forecast. It already sounds quite breezy outside.

I must say if it does materialise then the EPS have been a bit late to the party and the GEFS will have performed better this time.

I just can’t get on board this time. So many times I’ve led myself up the garden path, it maybe reverse psychology but I’ve never found myself so negative about a winter outlook , I really hope it materialises .

Not what is said .... quote " raise the possibility that Asians are more susceptible to coronavirus" They then go on to discount the possibility.

It's the major international Hubs I think are the worry? Surely infectious folk have travelled through such hubs and shed virus as they went (never mind the 'within 6ft' contacts during their passage through the airport?) We should be screening ALL International Airport workers/Cabin crew/Pilots as a matter of course if we are serious ab out halting the spread? Those folk travel home to their communities and then go about their daily lives there? For baggage handlers/cleaning staff many would, I imagine, use public transport to and from work? EDIT: Hi Nick S.! The markets are already going a bit nuts about 'potential impacts' and I am cynical about their willingness to see their 'profit margins' slip over a thing 'not yet happened'..... but then that's just my view of how 'Unfettered Capitalism' operates you understand?

Now comes the real test - tracing everybody's movements prior to the cluster and tracking down this area's 'patient zero'.

It is of course far easier for a model to predict a predominately Westerly driven season when our weather comes predominately from the West. The proof of Glosea5's prowess will be in predicting a colder Winter and whether that actually occurs.

I know I’m not at an airport but I do feel I need to announce my departure see you all next year

And....to hell with that! My commuting carriage of choice will be a Lothian Buses 44 which just happens to stop right outside a fine purveyor of Scottish morning rolls and good coffee! "Much more sensible on a day like that" says my wife who insists I need to lose weight

You’re right to be very dubious. One thing notable from this winter is any bit of amplification shown at the longer range has failed to materialize. Its even been a struggle at day 6 to see that survive . In this instance a lot depends on that storm forecast for the eastern USA , where exactly that tracks and whether it develops any secondary features has a large impact on any ridging ahead of it .