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How's that for a northerly, ensemble 6

Afternoon all! Nice to see some more snowfall up North - miss the old days when the weather could surprise you! All very predictable here in the West. #BreezeDennis at the moment - sheltered from a SSW/SW here at the house and I have given up on walking down the road to experience bog standard 50mph gales head on. (Peak gusts late evening/tonight around 55/60mph) It is a lovely day at the moment - still some wee snow patches from earlier in the week. Enjoy the rest of yer Sunday!

For anyone in doubt about the seriousness of the situation in South Wales consider this chart showing another 4cm of rain due today up to 6:00 pm: c This is on top of the 14 hours of nearly continuous rain which has already drenched the hills in this area. The steep sided valleys of South Wales drain all this water into narrow streams and rivers which can very quickly become inundated and cause dangerous flooding. Hence - red warning very much justified.

Yep, we can all hope that some kind of winter will occur, hopefully before mid March and then concentrate on some warmth. Above all for almost everyone some dry weather. I cannot see any real change in the current and recent pattern looking at the 500 mb anomaly charts though. it takes us to about 2 weeks ahead. Beyond that and it is not my area of expertise at all! Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

This may be of interest. Dr. Michael Folmer, one the OPC's Marine Forecasters, has written a blog post summarizing the most recent hurricane force low pressure system in the E Atlantic. It can be found at the following link: https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2020/02/16/north-atlantic-storminess-february-13-15-2020/

I got a surprise when I opened the bedroom blinds this morning... Just started again too, unlikely it'll last long on the ground as it was already melting in the sun before it started again. A nice surprise all the same as it wasn't forecast.

I never expected Storm Dennis to bring too much of a strong wind since it was way out in the Atlantic we only really got a bit of the wind it was the rain that was the big issue from this storm and the high tides haven't helped. Yesterday Dunoon saw some roads flooding and some of the roads down at the shore closed for a time. Today around when the tide got high again I went out to take some pictures of the waves. You could hear the waves crashing into the rocks. The wall on the right is actually a old abandoned building there's still a shop going beside it getting hit by the waves. Old pier nearly going underwater on the way back it had actually gotten slightly higher than what these photos show.

Aye - looks decent above 150/200 meters for snow once again! Monday night through Tuesday looks good for some hefty wintry showers on low ground (thunder, lightning, graupel, wet snow ect) Latest GFS for that timeframe: Thursday morning snowfall? (Doubt it myself but nice to see on chart form at least!) As @Ravelin mentioned earlier keep an eye on next weekend and beyond as well - could it be fourth Monday in a row? ECM brought snowmageddon for many of us on its morning run. (Same timeframe as above) Usual pinch of salt stuff at these timeframes - personally I am getting desperate now for a decent depth of settling lowland snow! It’s been a tough Winter for us cold/snow lovers! It is time Old Man Winter paid all us sea level dwellers a visit... Have a good night everyone!

Interesting drive to work this morning! River has well and truly burst its banks, can't tell lane from river in places! Have lived here all my life and never seen such extensive flooding on this lane.

ENV Agency: "we now have the most flood warnings and alerts in force (594) in England than any other day on record." #StormDennis

What’s your first crop? Rice?

Yes Feb there as been quite a bit of noise from those ensembles for a few days now, and I like how that mean is on the fall. Could we salvage something come months end!! The one I'm posting.... Well let's just say I nearly choked on me bran flakes..

Some pictures from new Brighton around high tide this afternoon

This could be the time they are correct - it’s the GFS time to shine! I also found a short potent wintry spell on the...CFS! (Told you I was getting desperate) The only proper Winter weather many of us have had is through la la land snowfall charts! Less of that chat about the dullest countryside in Scotland - would not be the same in here without a Borders beech tree picture! (Especially with a nice sunrise/sunset, frosty or snowy background!) Wind gusts picking up a wee bit here - nothing too interesting/exciting. Storm Dennis passing to the North of Scotland currently/shortly. Lets see what this week brings as we approach the end of Meteorological Winter. Edit: @Hairy Celt When was the last time you seen snow like this? (Lybster, Caithness 1955!)

Almost blizzard conditions just after 7am this morning. Lasted about 20 minutes and left a slight covering which melted quickly. Higher up on north facing hills, the snow remains in place. Currently snowing on the west valley hills.

Trouble is these, these Arctic blasts often get shortened down to diddly squat as they get closer, especially during mild winters. That said, it's better to have an opportunity than nowt! I doubt a short lived Arctic blast would deliver anything to my back yard, though, but at least those in the north would have some fun and games.

Some heavy snow this morning, 5 cms on top of the old tired stuff, last 7 days has pretty much seen more snow than the entire (stunningly p*sh) winter, pity it’s largely needed some elevation

Why do they have to back the almighty gfs exactly. Having said that the gfs ensembles are the coldest they have been all winter as we head towards the end of it. Unreal as we head towards spring that this happens AGAIN

Here is London. Very encouraging for at least a flake or 2 down south at the end of the month. Op was almost a mild outlier at times towards the end. Expecting a few stonking runs in the coming days

Images of Anglesey Public Group | Facebook M.FACEBOOK.COM By Foel farm Menai straight, today @ 11.57 It's on the water.

The General Clustering this morning at the end of month though on the GEFS is all below -5c uppers.

Well i'm pleased/relieved to say we didn't even get close to overtopping the defenses here in Mytholmroyd but the news from wales is grim! Images of roads as river and above ground floor windows is just what we had here last Sunday so we kn ow what its like once the waters retreat! Let's hope this is the end and we can now glide into spring without more of the same? No " In like a Lion for March "!!!!

More nonsense from GFS!

A bit of support from the Canadian Model below at 240T. Sort of heading towards the above longer term evolution, especially if the Mid - Atlantic high could link with the Greenland high. That would let in a potent Northerly straight from the Greenland Sea , where 850mb temps are modelled at -25c by 28th February. Of course plotting this route to some real cold may well disappear into dream land for us many cold lovers going by the way this rotten mild winter has turned out.In the meanwhile some amazing high temps expected in the heart of Ode to be Joy land today.

Yes Mal it just passed through here . Wife was wondering why I was waiting by the window and asked if it was snowing . I’m afraid not I replied but we may need a boat for transport if this carries on much longer .

Yes, some of the dullest.... Try Caithness! No, don't bother.

Really hoping for an exceptionally dry spell this Spring/Summer. Don't care about the temperatures, just want it to be dry for a while. Ever since the torrential rains of late July/August last year it has just been damp all the time.

Some lightning from this squall.

The latest Met Office text forecast for Strathclyde mentions the possibility of snow down to low levels tomorrow night. Third Monday in a row?

John Kettley was on LBC this morning and he did say an opportunity within the models at the end of the month for a short lived artic Blast . Fingers and everything else crossed .

09z radar vs 03Z run of UKV for 09z, underestimating extent of rainfall across south Wales? Why sometimes it's best to nowcast rather than rely on models for critical weather.

Yesterday morning This morning I think my 2-3" was a bit premature.. Looks a bit more than that.. It's close now to reaching the flat ground that pours the water into the houses back gardens..

The wave forming on the cold front could be a problem vis further rain.. The latest WV image

River taff treforest

Came in from work to a happy dog, who'd spent the afternoon watching me out the window, asked him if he wanted a walk...

Many local roads flooded here, the garden is an enormous puddle with our fence a gonner for good after valiant attempts during last week's storm. Locally we are under a flood warning until midnight. The Thames at Kingston must be very high indeed. But at least we have a sunset and pockets of blue sky. Please can we have some weeks to dry out now and while we're at it, might as well head on into spring.

Relentless rain here. I’m guessing plenty more to come in the far SE?

Earlier snow all gone, even in the shade. At least its been replaced by a nice sunny day, but very gusty at times. Miles better than yesterday's dross. Looking forward, although only glimpses of 'promise' on the models, the mean 850s from next weekend onwards have been steadily dropping... Obviously some variation around the mean but might be scope for the odd snowfall even away from high ground. I suspect though that cold rain is more likely for most of us.

Nowhere near as bad as Storm Ciara in my little corner of the world...bit wet yesterday and a tad windy but nothing as extreme as the heavy intense squalls with violent downdrafts, up drafts, sideways drafts and every other kind of draft thrown in the mix from last Sunday. That said other's have had it very much worse and hopefully the flooding won't be as severe as last week. Also this Winter has just been October/November on steroids for it's entirety.... Roll on Spring.

They work together before issuing the RAIN warnings, Env agencies share their flood forecasts and current water on the ground conditions, the Met Office share the forecast rainfall info. The warnigs are then issued to complement each other.

Apart from the signal (or is it regression to the mean?) for things becoming more 'average' with time, it looks as if the current unsettled spell is set to continue...? GFS 06Z at T+384: However, lest one get accused of 'clutching at straws' or 'hopecasting', I'm suggesting neither 'Snowmageddon, as in perturbation-X' nor 'Barbecue Spring, as in perturbation-Y'...Just a gradual return to normality...

Wow 24 hours on the River Usk in South Wales watch it live here

Come on, the moisture has come all the way from Mexico, a 100 miles out isnt a bad effort without power steering.

I think the issue we’ve had all winter is that Polar Vortex has been way too strong so therefore it’s near impossible to get prolonged cold spells. Really is a disappointment though, I think the last completely snowless winter for me at least was 2013-14 with all the storms bringing in mild air, similar to recently. Just want to hope that some day that polar vortex will break down and there will be such negative AO that we get a repeat of winter 2009/2010. That’s what I need

The wave forming on the cold front could be a problem vis further rain.. The latest WV image

Horrible wet night .

Red warning for South Wales

Just me then tonight? Anyone else for some clutching at straws? FI starting to hold interest... Edit... Doesn't look cold though, but certainly a different run (yes I know, ignore FI...)

It's mid February. It's pouring with rain outside. The temperature is around 13-14c at half past ten at night, dew points are up in double digits. Tonight is just awful. About as far away from a crisp winter's night that we can get.