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The GFS 6z ensembles for me show a downturn in those temps moving forward, the mean most definitely is lower.. I'm loving a few of those ensembles, the one I'm posting...... Come to papa...

As a bit of Valentine’s fun, been fishing in the barrels of the 00Z GEFS ensembles this morning. For cold and wintry weather, 0Z GFS Perturbation 9 is this morning’s winner! (well, at least until the 06Z run comes out ) But... don’t want the cold and prefer something milder and drier? It was a tough decision, but I feel the winner goes to 0Z GFS Perturbation 5! Right at the end of the run! (although High Pressure is generally quite dominant around the UK area, especially over South-Eastern parts for a fair chunk of that run in FI). This GFS ensemble member below would make a good runner up: The heights at least around and to the South of the UK are rather strong. The overall champions!

The achievement of an Arctic oscillation of +6 has taken 70 odd years to record- So you could say that its a 1:70 event. Tonights ECM goes for a +7 index value in just 9 days time .... Record on top of record if it happens. Thats how special this winter is....

Just taken a wet and wild walk along Elie beach! Absolutely brutal in that wind! Just the 2 photos (of a mostly empty beach) as my hands were too cold to take any more

Dennis just beginning to get it's act together as the trough from the Labrador Straits and the other that has tracked up from the eastern seaboard merge in the south west quadrant of the huge trough already in situ in the Atlantic

That's a good point Mike, I'm starting to wonder also if these climate models are over playing the global warming that is factored into there programming! Because everytime we see a seasonal forecast these days, it basically predicts warmer than average! Would be interesting to see how these models would handle a situation of an entire year being cooler than average.

Well it nearly 4 in the morning here in Reykjavik and I can tell you that the wind here is far worse than anything I experienced last weekend with storm Ciara in the UK mind you the near hurricane force Blizzard is something to behold. Gives lamp post watching a hole new meaning. The Icelandic Met adopted the met office severe weather warning system seven years ago and this the first Red warning they have ever issued for south Iceland.

Picking up on a point made by kold in the Storm Dennis thread, it's the saturation of the ground that is already problematic. Our local park has been waterlogged since way before Christmas, with a pond regularly appearing in our garden after each storm. For areas already flooded or at risk of flooding, there is little to no capacity left to absorb yet more heavy rain. I wonder what March and April will bring? Can't help feeling winter will turn up exactly when none of us want it... Rant over, but here are some pics of ponds where ponds aren't supposed to be at the local park...

All I know is cause my ms med compromises my immune system, normal colds make me very ill, the flu nearly put me in hospital in October. I have to try and avoid this one if I can.

Take care if you’re near Cardross at the moment folks ?!

Yes, it was a lovely sunrise here in Suffolk as well this morning. This wind gust chart for East Anglia a great way of showing the forecast period of strongest winds expected this weekend from Storm Dennis. Saturday and Sunday will see a lengthy period of winds gusting around 50 - 55mph here. Chart courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest. Twitter @danholley_

Sixty mbs in 30 hours! Whichever way you hack it very impressive cyclogenisis Which also initiates warm and moist advection with a long fetch resulting in likely some heavy rain. A mini atmospheric river

It is disappointing to note that the potential impact of this viral infection, on individuals, local/national communities or on a global scale is so arrogantly dismissed. Anyway, whether it evolves into a pandemic, or not, there will be a beneficial learning curve for future reference.

I think that assessment of this thread is a wee bit unfair. The concerns are not simply about the mortality rate associated with 2019nCoV but more the impact of widespread morbidity on essential services and business. This is an unknown, and is an interesting and important topic for discussion, as are the measures which might be taken to control the spread. And I have not noted much in the way of fake news on here, except, maybe, the determination of one or two to make uninformed ‘off the cuff’ comparisons with seasonal flu.

Rapid cyclogenisis Cloud Structure In Satellite Images http://www.eumetrain.org/satmanu/CMs/RaCy/navmenu.php?tab=1&page=1.0.0

I woke up to this today!

-3C in Halkirk just now (unless my car's reading wrong) which is a bit lower than suggested in forecasts. Perhaps the snow cover is depressing it and there's not supposed to be any snow cover left . Anyway it's nice to have winter here at last even if it'll soon be away again. Oh and guess where Ms HC is heading for half-term? Northern England.

You really have an absolute nerve. YOU are spreading fake news about this virus based on a few snippets of posted news on internet; YOU have NO concrete evidence of what will happen. It is just you posting your own sick agenda. There was a veiled warning from govt and health authorities earlier about the internet forums, social media spreading fake news.

Thinking the Welsh mountains could gobble up the worst of the rain here in the south of the region. Looking horrendous for north Lancs & Cumbria though. Hope you guys up there stay safe.

Sorry to hear that so many of you guys and your families are struggling with chronic conditions. My ex wife has fibromyalgia and all the joys that brings with it, plus she's had bacterial pneumonia twice in the last 6 months so has weakened lungs. She wants to do everything possible to avoid getting ill but works at a special school, so is very often exposed to viruses as the kids often can't / won't / don't understand how to avoid coughing into the air. Back to the virus. My workplace has put a rule in place regarding foreign holidays, until further notice. Anyone intending to fly to the far east is required to speak with our HR department as they will be asked to stay off of work for 2 weeks after returning. We also have posters up everywhere reminding people to wash their hands after using the toilet, and they have placed several dispensers of antibacterial hand gel in every office.

I have a similar problem but mine is a Neuro Degenerative disease and I am mostly housebound, will do my best to avoid this one if possible.

My eldest daughter's bipolar treatment has the same effect, alexis: the nasty 6-day cold that I'm just now getting-over (headache, sore throat, voice like Lee Marvin etc.) kept her bedridden for around 4 days...Just do your best to keep clear of COVID-2019...?

Sounds hopeful? Plea for plasma after positive results with coronavirus patients in China WWW.SCMP.COM Health of critically ill people treated with antibodies from recovered patients improved in tests, biotech company says.

In the influenza v's Covid-19 some helpful soul over on ASIF put together some graphics comparing the US Flu stats with Covid-19 stats;

Brexshyte and Covid-19...... what a year this will be for us all!!! Coronavirus may impact global supply chains until year-end - Lloyd's Loading List WWW.LLOYDSLOADINGLIST.COM Effects likely to be felt throughout much of 2020, even if the worst effects of the outbreak are reached soon, according to one leading US-based freight forwarding and third-party logistics provider

Bit nicer on the way back!

At this range, just glad to see no clear signal for anything nasty - which there could have been after the winter just gone/going. And as there isn't a clear signal you can read what you want into a 3 month average anomaly...which is why I prefer the probability plots. The ridge to the SW could be more relevant for the south than the feature you identify. I do agree that practically every month, the model shows a higher probability of warmer than average, but that is still a prediction.

I wouldn't completely dismiss the idea - ECM and GFS both show it as a possibility, and the mean is down to -5 at the end of the month. There is a definite trend to pull the high to the west a bit, which would give the northerly chance. Nothing long lasting, but a very short cold shot isn't out of the question.

I think Prof Ferguson is suggesting a high ratio of unreported/unrecorded cases. Not anything nefarious in terms of hiding the #'s, more that a number of those that are sick are not ill enough to be seeking help from the authorities and go under the radar. This would make sense, you have a ticklish cough, it could be Covid-19, it could be hayfever, you don't feel ill to any extent, so what do you do? Self quarantine and keep quiet? Or alert the "authorities" and find yourself under house arrest or whisked off to one of the new hospitals? You are likely to keep schtum unless you need medical assistance. It seems that many of those infected have very mild symptoms and the majority of these may be absent from the figures as a result.

Morning all, And a Happy, albeit snowless, Valentine's Day to all the female Members of the S.E.Thread. You'll be pleased to hear, I remembered a Card for "Septic" (Wife Colette). Poor thing went off to work at 6.15, for her early Morning shift. I've given her strict instructions, not to work on this Afternoon. Likewise Tomorrow, she has an early Morning shift but Tomorrow is our 10th Wedding Anniversary, evidently our Diamond Anniversary but I can't afford a Diamond, so I've bought her a humungous box of Chocolates. Like my original prediction in snowray's Snow Competition, Colette's choice of Tomorrow, will also bite the dust. And we won't see a repeat of Snow grains on our Wedding Day, as we saw outside Sidcup Registry Office, in 2010. I hope this is ok with Malcolm but I do need to return to my Weather predicting Competition, briefly. As I stated a few Days ago, I have carried forward those Members predictions (post 20th Feb), to my new Weather predicting Competition but the great majority of you, have only predicted Category 1 (next date of settling Snow), there are another 3 Categories. Category 2 - Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast area. The name of the Shipping area, it first enters and its central Barometric Pressure, at that time. Category 3 - Predict the exact Date and Temperature (to the nearest degree Celsius), of the last AIR Frost of the Season. Category 4:- Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded in the South East Region. The following S.E. Members need to complete all these Categories, if they're going to have a chance of winning a wonderful, "Virtual" Prize: Chertseystreamer79, classylady, Jimmyh, Sleety, snowray, Stainesbloke, Steve Murr and Mark Wheeler. The following Members need to complete Category 2, with their prediction of the date and central pressure of the last named Storm, when it enters the Shipping Forecast areas, at that time: Claret047, Kentspur, Lewis028, Lottiekent and John Stevens. Don't worry, if you're not considering to continue, in my Competition. But if you do, could you please Post your predictions, on my Competition Thread, in the Lounge Forum. Thank you. Sorry to be so fastidious but it's a legacy of working for a Bookmaker, where ambiguity is a Bookmaker's enemy and a Punter's friend. A few Years before I became to ill to work, I was given the task of rewriting our Betting Rule Book and I'm sure Lassie (a much valued Patron of my Horse Racing Competitions), will confirm that I'm a "stickler" for Rules and Entry deadlines!! I've always felt that if you're going to do something, do it properly. Myself and Colette were quite alarmed, when a couple of Days ago we went to collect my B.P. medication from a Chemist in Chislehurst, to find the counter awash with Face Masks. Especially, as Colette has experienced a tight chest and cold type symptoms, along with myself in the past few Days. But coming into contact with a myriad of viruses, is one of the "hazards" of working in the Care Industry, for which employees are paid, a pathetic pittance. Colette is still waiting for her amazingly generous Christmas Box of, wait for it...……. a £5 Amazon Gift Voucher!! Shame on you BUPA ( a multi-million £ Company). I count myself very fortunate and a bit of a fraud, for along with my Children (who also worked with me), received 10% of our Gross Annual Income (after Tax/N.I.), if Results from a Bookmaking POV, had been favourable. Which was a hell of a lot more than BUPA's pathetic offer!! Looks like our planned Joint Anniversary/ 72nd Birthday meal with my eldest Sister, will have to be postponed, to a later Date. So, snowray no meal at Studio Gusto in Bromley. or a Joe Green (Giuseppe Verdi) Opera. I admit to doing something very un-Italian the other Day, sprinkling Worcester Sauce on my Wife's delicious Lasagna. That's as bad as having, Lasagna and Chips!! Apologies to Malcolm but one last bit of "Tomfoolery" from me, before I depart to other Threads. As well as celebrating our Wedding Anniversary, we will also be celebrating the 2nd Birthday of our Twins (stay with me and humour me on this). The first Twin, Rupert (Ruby), aka Wobbly. He was bought (born), in the Co-Op at Chislehurst, Valentine's Day 2018. He was always very flimsy and fragile. But we were very worried when his head started to come off but Nurse Septic and myself sprang into action. Below are images of Wobbly Pre-Op and Post-Op. Wobbly in recovery, with one of the medical instruments, behind him. His Twin Sister, Darcey Bella was bought (born) a Day later, amongst the Chocolates in Sainsburys, in Bromley and evidently, pushed her Twin Brother, out of the womb. Here she is, pictured below: She is a lot bigger than her Twin and like a lot of girls, has a craving for chocolate. Colette was considering getting a Cavalier King Charles Puppy, which Colette had chosen the name Darcey for but we thought with my uneasy balance, could have resulted in my tripping over it. Apologies Malcolm but I have been behaving myself lately, re. the zany, O/T Posts. Right, enough of my nonsense I'm off to other Threads. Stay safe and beware of "Dennis the Menace". Adios!! Regards, Tom.

Morning all. Another stunning sunrise.

Blimey GW, and this is not a criticism of you personally, but if anything ever summed up social media..... do 'likes' provide validation? Who sits around counting their 'likes' and comparing to others', let alone judges others by the numbers? I could probably find a site that is populated by people that think this virus is a plague sent from God and get loads of likes by posting stuff that they will, you know, 'like'.

just shows the hysteria on this forum..i belong to only one other forum on the internet..their post count is at 121..here we are past 1,100 on this topic (btw they have more members)

The wind and rain set to drop and clear behind the cold front Sunday afternoon, could well be a nasty squall line on it, for the southern half of the UK. But the position is complex in the north west as Dennis fills and drifts south east to be 951mb just north west of the Hebrides by midnight Monday

An interesting facebook post today from my lads school he attends a private school in wolves and they have stated that this half term all 60 Chinese borders will not be travelling back home and will remain in the uk this will be reviewed at Easter certainly taking it seriously

Something that you should always consider BB is that "responsible" professionals will give an opinion on based on a balance of probabilities. What they will (or should) never do is go on national TV and say "we're all doomed i tell yer, doooommmed!" even if they are aware that there is a real, albeit very very small possibility that is the case. What you are seeing on TV at the moment is responsible advice that is intended to comfort and reassure the public, and it is I believe almost certainly correct advice. There is however always the possibility of outliers - worse case scenarios. These are things best kept for the scientific arena where such predictions can be challenged and debated. Sometimes these worse case scenarios (e.g. La Palma mega tsunami) do get picked up by the media. For what it is worth, my non expert opinion is that this virus is not going to be contained. This should be of no surprise, it is easily transmissible and any attempt at containing something like this is going to be as successful as herding cats. That is not to say containment is a waste of time, it will still slow the spread and therefore make impacts on health care systems more manageable. I also feel that the physical impacts of the virus are not going to be as bad as first feared. I'm basing this on a suspicion that there are a large number of unreported cases in China due to the mild nature of the symptoms in those cases, coupled to a low mortality rate in the cases outside of China. In one respect, a pandemic of a novel virus with a mortality rate of 1% and a relative high rate of people requiring acute medical care (say 5%) could prove to be a valuable cautionary tale. 1% mortality and 5% hospital admission means that nearly everyone will be personally effected, e.g they will no someone that was hit badly or someone that knows someone. I'm not belittling the vast #'s that a 1% mortality entails, but it will wake the worlds populous and politicians up to the fact there is a very real menace out there (the big one so to speak)and that research and precautionary measures should be continually funded.

I think crunch time was a day or two ago, but it still isn't resolved, here GEFS and ECM ens: Up to now I had been siding with ECM, but on today's plot seems to be doing the MJO equivalent of reversing round a roundabout. Not clever, not safe. I'm switching allegiance to GEFS now, maybe this will deliver a late winter cold blast a couple of weeks down the line.

Was panic buying at the supermarket this morning. Mainly comprised of harassed blokes buying flowers and boxes of chocolates. To ward off an outbreak from their beloved I expect. There was no shortage of anything. A normal day for Friday.

Consistency again from the GFS 06z with the upcoming pattern, so at D12: Azores high/ridge and trough into Europe. UK within the two features. Could improve for cold or may not but *potential for a change even if only transitory. So into FI on the 06z

But actual temps have been above average, for most of the time, too, Crewe...?

Yup, it was a gorgeous sunrise up here in the hills of Eastbourne too. I have stopped taking photos of amazing looking skies/weather phenomena as what looks amazing to my eyes always looks crap from my phone

Lets try stick to the virus and not political systems, eh?

When is it not a 'warm season' these days?! On a more serious note, the warmer than average conditions show no sign of abating from the latest GloSea5 charts. Does make you wonder......

Feb GloSea5 is out, just one plot tells you all you need to know about the 'winter' legacy, 2m temperature Mar-May: No clear signal on precipitation at all so I won't post the chart. I have to say I'm interested in this from the point of view of summer now, so here 2m temperature and z500 for May-Jul: Maybe hardly surprising that hotter than average is favourite given the recent past, and nothing that suggests some summer nightmare from the heights charts, although obviously they are are means over 3 months and many runs, uncertainty over summer, but not much of a hint of the doomsday 2007 at all, I would say, at this early stage, so I'll take that. In fact that leaves me optimistic about the warm season! First time GloSea5 has left me optimistic about anything for ages.

After a brief colder interlude the PV ramps up and then a question mark as to what happens after that . The GFS op starts to amplify the upstream pattern towards day ten , we don’t manage to get the high into a favourable position on this run but the ensembles do have some better solutions . I’m always a bit dubious of longer range ensembles but there does seem to be a trigger to move the PV further east and with that colder chances improve and this is likely connected with the GEFS view regarding the MJO. The MJO forecasts are very uncertain because of the huge disagreements between the GEFS and ECM . The GEFS MJO if not muted out by other factors is really I think the last chance to salvage something out of this tragic winter for coldies . The ECM isn’t interested , normally that does verify better than the GEFS but the situation is more complicated than the normal disagreements of say phase speed and amplitude . Effectively both are totally disagreeing on which parcel of convection associated with the current MJO cycle will become the dominant feature . It’s very unusual to see this type of divergence . We await the updates tomorrow !

The met are going for 63 mph in the early hours of Monday for me, i think that's the highest they've forecast all winter.If they're as accurate as they were with wind speeds last week then this could be more interesting than Ciara through the central belt.

In Elie for the weekend and it's just as visible here too!

Hmmm 'It's Nessie' - Mystery skeleton washed up on Scots beach leads to speculation it's Loch Ness Monster - The Scotsman TRIB.AL The discovery of a mystery skeleton uncovered on a Scottish beach during the recent Storm Ciara has led to speculation that it could be...

Certainly a beast that is currently lurking to the west of us. Undergoing cyclogenesis too by the looks of it.