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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/02/20 in all areas

  1. Yes of course the 246 Mean. The all important 246 mean
    18 points
  2. Of course it's not banned, but if you're going to say a run is 'dry and settled' when in actual fact it's nowhere even close to that for at least 7 days, then you shouldn't really be surprised when someone mentions that.
    17 points
  3. Thick thick snow here pure blizzard conditions MAGIC!
    16 points
  4. Sunny, if chilly and bracing here this afternoon; the snow showers just never penetrated far enough east to affect my location. A couple of pics, snapped at the same view point, from a walk this afternoon to illustrate; View to the N/NW View N/NE
    14 points
  5. Almighty crack of forked lightning in the valley, just as I was standing at the window. As the snow and graupel came down in buckets. Don't see that very often.
    12 points
  6. We are still seeing quite a chilly westerly and unsettled pattern for a few more days. This spell looks like turning out to be the coldest this Winter nationwide with quite a few locations seeing snowfall. I know it's not saying a lot and not everyone has seen at least a few flakes but it's the most seasonal feeling period we have had i guess. Thursdays low looks like crossing the centre of the UK and with cold polar air still over us some snow on the northern edge is quite possible again especially higher up. The t60hrs fax After that the trend seems to turn the jet more towards a sw angle as the Euro high starts to exert it's influence with the next quite deep low tracking further north bringing another very windy and wet spell towards the weekend. T120 fax This is likely to bring temperatures more towards average as the sub tropical heights continue to build bringing a less cold flow off the mid-Atlantic. We can see by day 9 on the ECM mean chart that north/south split developing with the flow more south westerly. No great warm up indicated but no suggestion either in the ens.of any real cold as the vortex continues to rule the roost across the Atlantic for the forseeable.There is just the suggestion with that euro high ridging next week that southern areas at least may see some more settled days. Sad to say but all the signs point to an unremarkable end to what has been overall a very poor season for cold lovers.
    12 points
  7. Still heavy snow in braemar. 5 foot drifts on the site, wind is blowing from the southwest, which is the way the shed faces.....where the snow plough and shovels are....
    11 points
  8. Well , it’s been a disappointing winter ,, this is the closest to me getting a covering a snow !! It’s hail but it will do
    11 points
  9. Typical. It has been dry here since I posted earlier about snow blowing in. May just have to look out for what is happening elsewhere (eg Borders) this evening. Meanwhile here is the road from Aberfeldy to Rannoch this afternoon.
    11 points
  10. Glenshee still stormbound. Looks like they've taken a hammering with snow forecast for the next 6 days. Looking up Claybokie piste, the snow fences are almost buried in places.
    11 points
  11. Cold sleety rain here too. Not very nice. Up in the hills however? I don't think any one is going to get to Glenshee for skiing anytime soon from the South side anyway. Spittal just now.
    11 points
  12. Yes it seems that a bit of altitude needed. The Spittal is just over 1000 feet. Here is the A826 at a similar height a bit further West
    10 points
  13. Hi troops, I have a bit of everything for you courtesy of the 6z ens, from early taste of spring and get ya ice creams in, to nice fidgid cold and get ya heaters on... Love it, good old GFS always throws the kitchen sink at us.
    10 points
  14. Altitude seems to be key this morning. The A826 South if Aberfeldy. Edit Oops same photo agaim. Meant to post this one.
    10 points
  15. Dry, settled run?! Its anything but dry and settled until at least 168 hours on all of the main models this morning.
    10 points
  16. Total at end of amber warning is 7cm on grass and 1cm icy smattering on concrete/hard surfaces. Roof maybe 3cm. Hakf way up the hill behind the house at say 50m higher the dark trees are christmas-like covered in icing sugar. It's that marginal. Marvellous.
    9 points
  17. After two days of sleet and west north westerly gales am reminded of Novembers of the sixties when such conditions were normal as winter started to take hold and you could see the particles of ice on the windows as we have recently and the hills acquired their winter mantle in most of those years. Februarys were were the month of dry, high pressure ,east winds and severe frost with sunny days.Lots of whin bushes and scrub cut and burnt in bonfires in February,so even if it is not global warming the climate has changed.Again back then outside sheep were being fed in February and March but this year as in many recent years we still have a couple of fresh green fields of grass in front of them which have regrown since mid December. Maybe March will be cold and we will have to give them hay and neeps. Currently windy with sleet and 3c
    9 points
  18. After a slushy stairt, heavy snaw oan here. Everything rapidly turning white.
    9 points
  19. 9 points
  20. The mystery of the current MJO divergence of forecasts . Theres another update later but yesterday’s suggested how the models are factoring in two parcels of convection moving east . The GEFS is emphasizing the second and stronger area which is further east and this is the main factor in why its showing the signal getting into phase 7 . Because even that ambles around for a bit before making that more decisive mood to phase 7 then we won’t know for a few more days which forecast is correct .
    9 points
  21. Cairngorm mountain reporting massive snowdrifts in places.
    9 points
  22. Power was off a few times this evening, partner had that many candles on the go it was beginning to look like a seance. Exposed local roads looking wild, these from early evening, was thumping down for a good while
    8 points
  23. The Theta Es over England at 246 are 10c which is perfect for snow when atlantic slides in!
    8 points
  24. Nowt much chance of lowland snow, on Thursday, methinks? The weekend looks a tad stormy: The following weekend looks a tad more pleasant: And the far-reaches of FI? Who cares!
    8 points
  25. Picking up on the post from Paul. Looking at my usual 500 mb anomaly charts, been out of things for some time but keeping an eye on them when possible. The EC-GFS do seem to show some degree of height rises across the Atlantic into Europe. The NOAA output last evening did not, so as far as guidance from the 500 mb charts then best to wait a day or two in my view. They have pretty much for a couple of weeks shown much as NOAA shows a very strong flow all across the Atlantic into the UK and Eirope. For those looking for deep cold I cannot see anything other than, much as now, a portion of the main deep cold trough runs south into the Atlantic and over the UK. Obviously once in a while some ridhing can develop briefly but there really is no sign to me of any marked northern ridging be that NW or NE in the next 6-14 days. Links below Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
    8 points
  26. 7 points
  27. OK. Giving up this cold snap. Heavy snow outside again as there has been all day but it's not sticking. Frustrating day as the charts looked much better for today. Thankful to have at least got yesterdays fun with the kids.
    7 points
  28. Aviemore about to take another pasting
    7 points
  29. We actually need bread and milk too.
    7 points
  30. Ooooo. I appear to be in the middle of that lovely amber colour.
    7 points
  31. Evening HC, In my far from educated opinion: Certainly lower 850s and (dare I mention it!) wet bulb freezing levels (they were up at 500m there today) tomorrow but I’d still be surprised to hear of any significant accumulating snow at or close to sea level...hope I’m wrong of course!
    6 points
  32. Wednesday night into Thursday could see the lowest temperatures of winter 2019/20 so far. Met office forecasting -11C for Braemar early on Thursady. If memory serves, the coldest temperature recorded so far this winter is -11.3C.
    6 points
  33. Saw a real fork lightening on the M74 near to Abington and there was intense hail that covered the roadway but other than that roads were perfect. Quite a lot of snow in some parts but basically zilch in low ground Edinburgh but hey ho
    6 points
  34. An interesting run from the gfs,can we get that cold pool to back even further west on future runs,and a good strat warming on this run to boot animation from 192>384. we don't necessarily need an SSW for cold weather to hit the UK but would help,i would think that the mjo is playing a part on this but the ecm says no for the minute,this is unfortunately going to be another waiting game to see if anything transpires of this,we are running out of time.
    6 points
  35. A very stormy weekend to come once again, GFS charts seem to be picking it up well. Can't help but notice how the low literally comes to a standstill on Sunday
    6 points
  36. USA forecasters expect a generally progressive pattern until the weekend then the western trough undergoing some amplification in response to a deep storm over the bay of Alaska . As that happens you’d expect to see a Canadian high edge east , the degree of amplification of that will then impact the troughing over sw Greenland . We do need that to sharpen up as that helps to push the ridge ne ahead of it . If you look at the GFS NH view that’s how its evolution works , that Alaskan storm and its effect downstream. But you’d need to have that all important jet cut back into the UK . That’s often like pulling teeth to get that ! Anyway we’ll see what the ECM has to say soon .
    6 points
  37. Please not another wild goose chase ! Both the GFS and the UKMO roughly on the same page at day 6 . The mid Atlantic high ready to push ne if the upstream pattern allows for that .
    6 points
  38. Oh gfs you tease now can we have some proper winter weather instead of these measly graupel showers.
    6 points
  39. Wasn't really expecting anything here today but the wind has got up, the temp has dropped and there is snow blowing in on the wind. You never can tell in this type of airstream though if I expect nothing then anything that does come is a bonus.
    6 points
  40. Hefty big snow showers incoming and you can make out the great clumps of stuff likely to affect Lanark etc later. Image decoded earlier this morning.
    6 points
  41. Went to Tesco in Peebles on Saturday and stocked-up big time! Local shop in Broughton selling bags of oak to burn though - always worth a visit as it's hot hot hot. Dewpoint has gone negative for the first time during this 36 hour spell. Nice.
    6 points
  42. Another tasty day IMG_9664.MOV IMG_9662.MOV
    6 points
  43. Thursday low pressure track still uncertain,could be the best chance of snow for England this winter and difference of a few hundred miles will make the difference.
    6 points
  44. There is always a different reason for every new failure though Chris. The reality is we live in a different climate than 30 to 40 years ago, people can deny it as much as they like but looking out to wet concrete virtually every winter tells the story perfectly.
    6 points
  45. Chin up folks there is always March... #desperatetimes
    6 points
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