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You wont be lurking much longer if you are up on a roof tommorow

This is the problem with the trash headlines from the Daily Express, when an event comes along that does actually warrant concern, some are willing to dismiss it as hyperbole still because they just assume its another Daily Express forecast. It's worrying.

People seem to be more obsessed by the warning than the storm itself!

Today was the absolute definition of calm before the storm here in Hastings/St Leonards on Sea. It felt like Spring with a barely noticeable breeze and mostly blue skies. This evening saw the 'Bad moon rising' for those of you old enough to remember that classic 1969 song by Creedence Clearwater Revival

Just driven Peebles-Stobo-home. I like speed. I'm that car pushing the traffic along to do the speed limit. Just now I was doing 35mph max. And luckily swerved when that fallen branch in the road reared its limb. Sheets and sheets of rain. Really quite something. Five days of food and beer purchased. Gonna need it.

My thought on tomorrow and how the models compare to it: Storm Ciara is being powered by a very powerful jet stream, meaning that the closer the storm crawls to the UK, the more intense it will become. It will cause chaos almost everywhere across the UK, hence the amber warning issued over the majority of the country by the Met Office. The likelihoods of this storm will include falling trees, tiles from roofs and other buildings, incredibly large waves near the coasts, and traffic on the roads. If you have seen the latest run of the sea level pressure, then you can tell it will be quite a nasty storm by looking at the isobars. Severe gales are possible over the coasts of the SE. These gusts at their highest will range from 60-70mph, and even 80mph+ possible. Waves of 2 meters high are even possible too. Even inland, it is still expected to be extremely windy, with gusts at their highest ranging from 40-60mph, with even 70mph+ possible. However, it is not just the wind. The rain totals are expected to be high, with the rain starting tonight over parts of Northern England and Scotland. The rain there is expected to be slow-moving and will definitely cause disruption, especially places like the roads. Flooding will also be possible over those areas. Everywhere across the UK is expected to receive some heavy rain, although I think it will be down to radar watching for tracking this heavy rain and where it will cause some impacts and disruption. Looking at the BBC's rain graphics underneath their forecast, it looks like there could be some little squally features possible, especially one over Northern England/Midlands at midday, and another squally feature that moves SE across Southern England.* Saturday evening/overnight On Saturday evening/overnight, the heavy rain will start to be visible over Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, and the heavy rain will start to creep in over Wales. Some of this heavy rain will turn to snow over the hills of Scotland, Northern England and Wales, which could cause disruption already, along with the strong winds. The winds will gradually start to become stronger, with gusts already reaching 50-60mph along the coasts of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and gusts of 30-40mph inland. The band of heavy rain that should be over parts of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will become slow moving, causing a lot more disruption. The temperatures in Southern England on Saturday evening and into overnight will range from 5 - 9c, and will range from -2 - 8c in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Along with the strong winds and heavy rain (or snow over the hills), it will feel a few degrees below than what the temperature actually is. Sunday morning On Sunday morning, the heavy rain that was over Northern England and Scotland would of reached almost every part of the British Isles by now, along with the strong winds. The strong winds on Sunday morning will start to kick in for SE coasts, where the waves would start to become very high. The heavy rain would still be over Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and probably wouldn't stop raining for a while. The wind gusts wouldn't of changed very much, with coastal areas reaching 50-60mph, and the gusts inland would reach 40-50mph. As well as the temperatures, they wouldn't of changed much either, with the temperatures in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland ranging from 0-11c and ranging from 7-13c in Southern England. Sunday afternoon On Sunday afternoon, some of the heavy rain/snow that was over Scotland and Northern Ireland would of cleared away, although behind the heavy band of rain, is scattered, blustery showers. These heavy showers could turn sleety/snowy over the hills of Scotland. The heavy rain over England will continue, with the possibility of flooding. In some places the rain will start to pep up, especially over high ground, and will cause problems/disruption. As I said earlier, I saw on the BBC's rain graphic a sort of squally feature that tracks over Northern England and the Midlands. If this is the case, and there is a squall line over the area, then expect a lot of rainfall in a short period of time. However, the rain isn't the only thing that's pepping up though. The wind gusts will certainly start to pep up, especially in coastal regions, where 60-70mph is guaranteed, and 80mph+ is possible in some areas. For the temperatures, they will be above average, with Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland ranging from 2-12c, and Southern England ranging from 8-14c. 15c could also be possible in one or two areas. Sunday evening On Sunday evening, the bands of heavy rain over Southern and Northern England will eventually clear. Although once the heavy rain clears, it will lead to some blustery, scattered showers, which could turn wintry over the hills. Once again on the BBC's rain graphics, another squall feature (perhaps the same one that was over the Midlands) tracks over Southern England, producing some heavy rain in a short space of time. Over in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland, there will still be some scattered and blustery showers, with once again the chance of some of them turning sleety/snowy. It will still be very windy in coastal regions, with 60-70mph gusts, and perhaps even 80mph+. It will still be very windy inland, with gusts ranging from 40-60mph on Sunday evening, and perhaps reaching 70mph. Some of the heavy rain and wind gusts will still linger into the evening and into the night in the far SE. Temperatures in the evening should range from 2-11c in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 9-14c in England and Wales. Other info I don't think this has been mentioned by any other forecasters, so this probably won't happen, but some places might see a chance of some lightning strikes. I think this because currently one of the bands of rain from Storm Ciara is currently producing lightning off the coast of Western Scotland. Also because it reminds of when Ex Humberto in September last year, when the storm bought milder air and also had a few storms embedded into it. *Screenshots of BBC's rain graphics about a possible squall line moving through: So, for a summary, it is expected to be windy, with gale force winds at times, along with very heavy rain. A miserable day to come tomorrow for the people who like dry and fine weather. It looks like a quite a nasty storm incoming.

I am thinking of going on the rides at the end of Brighton pier tomorrow afternoon..........

Storm Ciara is being powered by a very powerful jet stream, meaning that the closer the storm crawls to the UK, the more intense it will become. It will cause chaos almost everywhere across the UK, hence the amber warning issued over the majority of the country by the Met Office. The likelihoods of this storm will include falling trees, tiles from roofs and other buildings, incredibly large waves near the coasts, and traffic on the roads. If you have seen the latest run of the sea level pressure, then you can tell it will be quite a nasty storm by looking at the isobars. Severe gales are possible over the coasts of the SE. These gusts at their highest will range from 60-70mph, and even 80mph+ possible. Waves of 2 meters high are even possible too. Even inland, it is still expected to be extremely windy, with gusts at their highest ranging from 40-60mph, with even 70mph+ possible. However, it is not just the wind. The rain totals are expected to be high, with the rain starting tonight over parts of Northern England and Scotland. The rain there is expected to be slow-moving and will definitely cause disruption, especially places like the roads. Flooding will also be possible over those areas. Everywhere across the UK is expected to receive some heavy rain, although I think it will be down to radar watching for tracking this heavy rain and where it will cause some impacts and disruption. Looking at the BBC's rain graphics underneath their forecast, it looks like there could be some little squally features possible, especially one over Northern England/Midlands at midday, and another squally feature that moves SE across Southern England.* Saturday evening/overnight On Saturday evening/overnight, the heavy rain will start to be visible over Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, and the heavy rain will start to creep in over Wales. Some of this heavy rain will turn to snow over the hills of Scotland, Northern England and Wales, which could cause disruption already, along with the strong winds. The winds will gradually start to become stronger, with gusts already reaching 50-60mph along the coasts of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and gusts of 30-40mph inland. The band of heavy rain that should be over parts of Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will become slow moving, causing a lot more disruption. The temperatures in Southern England on Saturday evening and into overnight will range from 5 - 9c, and will range from -2 - 8c in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Along with the strong winds and heavy rain (or snow over the hills), it will feel a few degrees below than what the temperature actually is. Sunday morning On Sunday morning, the heavy rain that was over Northern England and Scotland would of reached almost every part of the British Isles by now, along with the strong winds. The strong winds on Sunday morning will start to kick in for SE coasts, where the waves would start to become very high. The heavy rain would still be over Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, and probably wouldn't stop raining for a while. The wind gusts wouldn't of changed very much, with coastal areas reaching 50-60mph, and the gusts inland would reach 40-50mph. As well as the temperatures, they wouldn't of changed much either, with the temperatures in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland ranging from 0-11c and ranging from 7-13c in Southern England. Sunday afternoon On Sunday afternoon, some of the heavy rain/snow that was over Scotland and Northern Ireland would of cleared away, although behind the heavy band of rain, is scattered, blustery showers. These heavy showers could turn sleety/snowy over the hills of Scotland. The heavy rain over England will continue, with the possibility of flooding. In some places the rain will start to pep up, especially over high ground, and will cause problems/disruption. As I said earlier, I saw on the BBC's rain graphic a sort of squally feature that tracks over Northern England and the Midlands. If this is the case, and there is a squall line over the area, then expect a lot of rainfall in a short period of time. However, the rain isn't the only thing that's pepping up though. The wind gusts will certainly start to pep up, especially in coastal regions, where 60-70mph is guaranteed, and 80mph+ is possible in some areas. For the temperatures, they will be above average, with Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland ranging from 2-12c, and Southern England ranging from 8-14c. 15c could also be possible in one or two areas. Sunday evening On Sunday evening, the bands of heavy rain over Southern and Northern England will eventually clear. Although once the heavy rain clears, it will lead to some blustery, scattered showers, which could turn wintry over the hills. Once again on the BBC's rain graphics, another squall feature (perhaps the same one that was over the Midlands) tracks over Southern England, producing some heavy rain in a short space of time. Over in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland, there will still be some scattered and blustery showers, with once again the chance of some of them turning sleety/snowy. It will still be very windy in coastal regions, with 60-70mph gusts, and perhaps even 80mph+. It will still be very windy inland, with gusts ranging from 40-60mph on Sunday evening, and perhaps reaching 70mph. Some of the heavy rain and wind gusts will still linger into the evening and into the night in the far SE. Temperatures in the evening should range from 2-11c in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 9-14c in England and Wales. Other info I don't think this has been mentioned by any other forecasters, so this probably won't happen, but some places might see a chance of some lightning strikes. I think this because currently one of the bands of rain from Storm Ciara is currently producing lightning off the coast of Western Scotland. Also because it reminds of when Ex Humberto in September last year, when the storm bought milder air and also had a few storms embedded into it. *Screenshots of BBC's rain graphics about a possible squall line moving through: So, for a summary, it is expected to be windy, with gale force winds at times, along with very heavy rain. A miserable day to come tomorrow for the people who like dry and fine weather. It looks like a quite a nasty storm incoming. Stay safe all! Zak

Started off a wee bit breezy at 15:00. Currently on the beach facing SW to the Isle of Arran. Gusts at the moment hitting 55mph. Expecting 60/65mph between 17:00 and 18:00. Tide is out and standard Scotland West Coast gales. IMG_0348.MOV

Some extreme deep layer and low level shear values forecast tomorrow afternoon ahead and along cold front sliding SE, this suggests potential, despite weak CAPE, for development of bow echoes or Line Echo Wave Patterns (LEWP) in a squall line in association with the cold front, with potential for some rotating mesocyclones to develop that could produce a tornado, or at least enhancing damaging wind gusts.

Calm before the storm

If anyone's interested, this is how to decode satellite images DIY-style. The tick-tock on the video is the satellite overhead. Finished images attached.

Horrible out.... Torrential and v windy already.... One trip out to the bin and it was clear the dogs will be going no further than garden tonight...... There hunkering down anyway.

Beeglie

Down in our flat in Brighton for the night. It's been a beautiful sunny day, mild and springlike. In the last hour or so the wind has started to whip up. Nothing unusual yet for Brighton as we watch out to sea into the face of the incoming weather. This old Georgian place has seen a few storms in its times, looks like another one is on the way. This was the view just before sunset:

Started off quite nice and sunny today. Activity in the morning around the bird feeders was through the roof. Never seen so many birds fighting for the food. The only visitor l didn’t see was the badger. The squirrels were there picking up the dropped seeds. The tuft of grass the squirrel is on has been caused by the dropped bird seed. Thinking of covering the whole lawn with it but I would probably have to cut it every two days in the summer! Headed to Paisley to watch the St. Mirren v Motherwell game. Surprisingly ok football given the conditions. The draw means we play St. Mirren three times in two weeks. The rain kicked in at half time and hasn’t really stopped since. Tomorrow afternoon I’m meant to be heading to the west end for a family get together. Think I might sit this one out. While the gusts may not be the highest we have seen in the central belt I think the longevity of sustained winds/rain (and those of today) will cause disruption so will not take the risk. Stay safe and enjoy the weather whatever it throws at you!

Wow, you would think the end of the world is approaching the way some people are reacting on here. I cycled to to the top of the cliffs just past the boating pool in Blackpool, during the Christmas Eve 97 Storm and it was an experience I will never forget! It's better to experience these things that life has to offer, Even if it involves taking some risks.

Bloody hell mate give us a break! I am surprised you even leave the house with this attitude. It is a weather forum with a huge number of extreme weather enthusiasts and this is a Storm thread - not Gardening or Knitting. If people want to go a walk in a blizzard or severe gales let them get on with it - people have been doing it for thousands of years. If you have the correct equipment, know the area well, are fit and weather savvy get out there and enjoy whatever weather type/preference you have. I am heading down to the local beach to experience 60/65mph gusts late afternoon/early evening later. Same again tomorrow and then I will be up a 200 meters hill on Monday/Tuesday to indulge in some snowy/squally fun. (Just as I have done safely for years without putting anyone at risk) I look forward to being out and about in the wild weather today through to Tuesday. All the best.

Good Morning everyone. I remember it very well too. At the time I worked for Essex County Council in the Building Surveyor's Section of the County Architect's Department and was in charge of the admin for the central office in County Hall as well as our 5 area offices. When I got up I knew it was quite an event overnight, with the wind still very strong at just after 6 O'clock. What I noticed and found strange was the water in the toilet bowl was riding up and down in small waves. I have never worked out to this day why this should have been so! I decided to see the TV News and realised the impact it had caused in our region and decided to walk to work early, which was a good job I did. The road to town had a large tree across and there were trees and large branches everywhere. When I got into County Hall I found I was the only one in the section that had made it in and the phone was ringing continuously from properties that had incurred damage, At that time there were far more properties looked after by ECC than today. We had all the schools and colleges in the county, as well as all social services properties (inc Elderly Persons Homes and Childrens homes), 1100 police properties, fire stations and houses as well as court houses and country parks. We still looked after the schools in Southend and Thurrock and schools did not have their own budgets for maintenance. When it was all over, one of my tasks was to prepare a committee report on the extent and cost of the damage. Four schools had their roofs blown off and there was much damage, although less serious to many other properties. At today's prices the total cost would have run into at least £250M I believe. My then next door neighbour's son was due to go on a school trip that morning to France and was up at 3.30 for an early start. When they met at the school they found they were going nowhere. Walking back that evening and on subsequent days I recall seeing workers from other electricity companies working on overhead power lines including some from Northern Ireland. It was a case of all hands to the decks. Although such events are interesting from the sidelines, if tomorrow's storm approaches the level of intensity during daylight hours it will be one that could cause a great deal of problems and I would rather it didn't live up to it's potential. Stay safe Kind Regards Dave

The 6z decides its time for a scandi high in the long range can’t see any support for it hopefully a trend setter. Easterly incoming

Yes... And that's the million dollar question, we all know how the good old GFS overstates the precipitation!! But taking a glance, Ireland is looking buried, and also plenty of the dandruff in W/NW areas to... Gonna be some serious lamp post watching this coming week in places! Give me snow god dam it..

The GFS op keeps to the stormy westerly outlook with brief NW'ly flows at times. Counted eight storms during the 16 days! As we go through the run the mini-ridges become more noticeable. D8-16> Maybe something different as we move towards March? The GEFS have moved towards the consistent op westerly pattern though still some variation. The GEM has moved away from the ECM Atlantic trough so by D10: Not dissimilar to the GFS op modus operandi. I think that the main question is how far south the jet will go, maybe a N/S split possible? ECM really struggling of late and not really paying any attention to post-D6, but it has moved away from the SW flow at D10 yesterday to a NW/Westerly zonal flow this morning! So a clear move towards the GFS and really all three models main difference is in the ridge at D7; ECM as it does, amplifies the most, GFS the least and GEM middle ground. Of course, it makes a big difference to the medium-term and the ECM changing on this run goes from mild to colder. In the short-term rain and wind from the storm, snow to usual suspects next week. Most notable will be 4-days of consistent colder windchill from Monday: Bitter seasonal feel with maybe some snizzle or wintry mix at times anywhere, west favoured, but too early for confidence in small features to show up. Inland the worse of the winds in the South/SW/SE quadrants, highest-risk for about 10h on Sunday: Main rain Sunday, but the west looking very wet over the next 6-days: Batten down the hatches...

Blimey folks, have you got access to the tarot cards with all the talk of summer.. Hey, I tell you what, we should start a new competition for what date the first summer is over post comes in at!! I reckon May 1st.. Just a a quick mention on tonight's ECM mean, we have a window of opportunity for some snow to fall, and perhaps in more places than you may be expecting! Beyond that, pressure is close to the South, with temps on the up again,, still plenty of cold pooling into the North Atlantic, and that big old purple blob shifts ever so slightly East, I tell you what it is still a menacing sight... And I reckon when it finally disrupts we could be looking at some sharp cold devoloping as we enter early spring! Get ready for a good old fashioned Easter dumping...

A breezy night in north Wales:

Gust of 82 mph at Capel Curig in north Wales at 2300hrs. 71 mph down the coast at Aberdaron.

Love this song from my youth and it seems appropriate this evening Just joking but I do love this song.

Where you get off it, is anyones guess. LOL

I live in snowdonia, in a village nearly 1000ft above sea level, with an open view over to the irish sea. Yes we are accustomed to very high winds, snow, heavy rain, and yes our buildings are built with this in mind vs low lying towns and cities inland. Our roofs are built to “high wind area” codes. We do often get 70-80mph gusts in winter without loosing any roof slates. However, if lowland areas are forecast 70mph+ then I reckon we at elevated positions are in for a loud night indeed. BBC doesnt have my vilage bellow 70mph+ into 85mph for 24 hours. 24 hours is a very long time to be above 70mph. I suspect we will have 90mph+ gusts during peak. I will keep you posted.

Wales and most of England now Amber. Sean Batty has mentioned 55/60mph through the Central belt tomorrow. (Some of the current models go much higher) He also gives my back yard a risk of 70 mph gusts and small risk of 80mph across exposed parts of Argyll, Arran and Inner Hebrides. (Again some current models are a touch higher) You would think an Amber warning would be issued for parts of Scotland tomorrow as well? (I am assuming they are not confident enough at the moment on the areas the higher gusts will concentrate on?) The mind boggles with it all! Also the risk of a sting jet developing! @BurntFishTrousers one for you to keep an eye on tomorrow. And all this before the gales/snow risk on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning! So much going on but very exciting! Plan for today (early afternoon) is to walk forty minutes down the road to a beach that will be directly facing into the peak gusts. (60/65mph between 16:00 and 18:00 - only worrying things will be the lack of light/high tide) Tomorrow the wind will be hitting me pretty much head on during the peak gusts so won’t have to go anywhere and then Monday/Tuesday a local 150/200 meters hill. (Big worry is the lightning risk!) Tell you what it’s a hard life being a lover of extreme weather having to juggle days off work and also keep the other half sweet so I can do the above things! Oh and I had a good wee read through this earlier - our own @Benvironment making a contribution to the article. Why is there less snow on Scotland's mountains this year? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-51279607 Have a good day everyone!

The current franchising system is bust, as for Network Rail, 50 years of under investment in our Railways has led to this point. I highly recommend making sure your MP is aware of your anger, because pretty much every problem with our railways lies at the door of Government and the Department for Transport.

Incredible.. GFS is still increasing the wind speeds for tomorrow.. I don't think I've ever seen the GFS increase wind speeds 24 hours out.. Approaching 80mph inland now..

Lucky! The last pass went right over this beauty. Isn't she a stunner. All 928mb of her.

Werewolf?

18z Showing weak positive heights East of Greenland... Could we get a bit of a slide going on...

From the satellite views and models, Ciara still isnt anywhere near, this is the first system and will be until very early morning. The earlier squall lines and awful weather at Murrayfield are not Ciara. Look at Burntfishytrousers NASA shots, it has hardly started to fold in yet, the jet stream is driving it at silly speeds. I would suggest that some of the high res models are seeing some kind of sting jet type winds around the South of the UK(and Northern France/Channel Islands), hence the startling wind speeds being projected. The length of time these will be experienced is something we are quite un-used to in this country, and maybe, unable to deal with!!! Funnily enough, son in law has just disagreed with me about what's coming...looking at his phones front screen he said. "doesn't seem too bad, bit gusty up to 40mph, and a bit of rain, should clear up afternoon". I think he has Siri.

55/60mph no problem today! Low tide so no major issues. Pretty standard stuff but still good fun. IMG_0348.MOV IMG_0389.MP4 IMG_0391.MOV

Monday looking ever more interesting But only 1-3cm apparently

Hellish up here Shuggee, I've closed the curtains and the blinds for the first time ever - I hate to feel claustrophobic and always leave curtains open but tonight it's unbearable.

Totally agree I think us coldies are just trying to look for the last scraps of comfort now. Alas probably deep down we know chances are very slim for a nationwide freeze but we still live it that hope that maybe something extraordinarily will happen. Who knows till we don't come to the end path of winter we will never give up. Our love for cold and snow will never die. regards

Absolutely hellish ootside!! between the stress of waiting for the windows to come in and the stress of watching the rugby, I'm nearly on the ceiling.

Best snaw is gonnae be at ma hoose. -- Wind stairtin tae whistle. Rain oan. Aff we go.

Amber warning for rain has just been issued for SW Scotland, Lothian Borders. Issued: 16:04 (UTC) on Sat 8 Feb 2020 Heavy and persistent rain falling through Sunday morning will bring widely 30-50mm and as much as 70mm in around 9-12 hours, this on top of rain which will already have fallen through Saturday. Very windy here now with heavy rain. I am hoping to see some snow when at work on Monday night but I am not sure if it will. I think it’s just a case of wait and see what happens as some forecasts are going for snow and others for rain.

Slight upgrade on the 06oz and the calm before the storm. Amber warning in place, I've secured a few things in the garden and I'm getting excited so everything in place for a classic fail. Seriously though this could be one event that will be remembered for a long time.

Tableaux GEFS 6z 850 hPa GEFS 6z have actually upgraded the uppers for the period 11th - 12th Feb with a lot more of the -7 isotherm across the UK. Surprise snowfall for a few i expect ( especially at decent elevation ) GEFS 6z mean @ t102 and not a bad mean either.

He's spent too much time on lamp post watch, nose pressed up to the window.

Yesterday, pink fluffy clouds at sunrise. Later on, much blusteriness followed by three mini power cuts then one that lasted about thirty minutes. I went to my bed. This morning, pink fluffy clouds and a lovely sunrise and wind expected to be much stronger than yesterday. I road tested a small battery lantern last night, great wee thing. I think it may be well used later on! Stay safe Peeplings!

Don't forget to stock up on gin!

I will speak with the dark side carry on posting Nick,love reading your posts as for model related,there is still interest in terms of snowfall this week especially oop north and if we get these lows tracking further SE/S then i wouldn't be surprised at all to see snowfall further south and.... JFF the gfs in it's latter stages want's to go for it.

Mate I really think the assessment is miles off. How can the ECM move to the GFS when over 24 hours 00z to 00z they have become more amplified. Its actually the GFS that moved to the ECM plain as day. 00z GFS 168 Yesterday V 144 today- goes from a flat westerly southerly jet to a SW flow with a ridge ECM 168 > 144 Both More amplified all be it temporarily.