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It’s quiet because we have all been posting the same charts for days! Last one from me before I retreat to the Regionals for blast off. (Saturday afternoon) What strikes me is the prolonged/sustained gusts that are predicted - from Saturday late afternoon right through to late Tuesday night my lowest gusts barely drop below 40mph. (Expecting 65/70mph + as my max here but that could quickly rise nearer the time) Gales widespread on Sunday also with plenty of severe gales in places. Latest GFS wind gusts for Saturday/Sunday. Latest GFS wind gusts for Tuesday. And of course the much discussed wintry potential for quite a few of us. Monday looks the day for the wintry potential to arrive - wee snippet from my local UKMO summary...colder with heavy wintry showers on Monday. (I’ll take that after this abysmal Winter from a cold/snow point of view) Personally living on the West coast of Scotland I am absolutely buzzing like an old fridge for all of this to become reality - as an extreme weather enthusiast nothing beats standing on the beach watching the waves crash in, big time spray action, roaring wind, intense squally wintry showers moving through and of course getting some good pictures/videos of the action! (All while wearing waterproofs/wind proof and at a reasonable safe distance of course!) All the best everyone and enjoy/don’t enjoy it when it arrives.

Even the donkey with the carrot dangled in front of him will grow tired eventually.

Nice upgrade for Snow prospects this morning gfs extends the snow risk all the way to Thursdsy night. So we have a window from Monday to Thursday night obviously higher ground is favoured but dont be surprised to see low level snow even in the South. We worry so much what might happen in deep FI. We should enjoy the now wich gives us all a great chance of the White stuff.

Wow, some big upgrades this morning for a change , not only has snow prospects next week improves but ECM has the snowy spell followed by a cold high which migrates to Scandinavia in FI. Should this verify some northern areas could see several days of snow followed by frost and sunshine and certainly not the blowtorch south westerlies on previous runs. I suspect it's a cold outlier but a real change from yesterday. Furthermore that low at 168 only has to track a few hundred miles south to give heavy snow on its northern flank across Scotland. Interesting week model watching this is. Andy

Shocking end to the ECM mean, the set up just remains all wrong, and it warms up... Its doing my grapefruit in now. This winter ship looks like its about to sink now, so it's either get a bigger boat, or man overboard... Roll on March. And to sum it all up, that's one hell of a purple blob of doom to the NW... Mehhh

Just worth noting the GEFS have made a subtle shift in track ( not all ) on the low at 144 - the ECM built that significant high behind it so it tracked ESE over the UK The GEFS arent building that high yet but have moved the track to a more NW > SE angle hence the cold hangs on longer & perhaps a higher risk of a snow event over the North drifts a little further south- Heres a typical example ** PTB 17 is the only ECM lookalike by 192 **

The EPS show a breakaway cluster day 10 onwards which is pretty much last chance saloon for Winter proper- We would bees to see this trend develop & become a lot more consistent over the next 4-5 days to be really interested....

I wouldn't worry about CAPE predictions, particularly surface-based ones. Lapse rates look good and with very cold air aloft, so they'll be plenty going on!

Not all bad news for Kirkcaldy! I am sure you will see some exciting weather through Saturday to Wednesday.

LOL that is hilarious

GFS 18z sharpening up that low at 138 even more - thats going to cut SE across the UK

Well, after over two months of winter, we are now talking about a weather event or events...first the strength of the winds from storm Ciara over the weekend, and then possibilities of snow for some and further storms over the course of next week. I like a probabilistic take on things, so here's something on the uncertainty about the strength of wind gusts, highest up to including Sunday, to T90 from the 6z ARPEGE ensembles. The 5 plots below show the minimum, 25%, median, 75% and maximum over the distribution of uncertainty: While the max looks over egged, there is clearly potential for damaging wind over pretty much most of the country, which is why the MO warning is widespread. Hopefully this can be firmed up over the next day or so...

Edinburgh snow shield clearly visible

Next Tuesday fare looks 'interesting': great should it snow, utterly bleurgh, should it not. Much like this winter really: a pentwyr o cachu. Pardon my Welsh!

Well if nobody else is going to, I'll post a frame. Vortex gone missing... Slider incoming?

A note on the winds for Sunday - most main models bring 70mph gusts to many places far inland, and even 80mph in spots. ECM and GFS are pretty much on the same page. Is it too late for a late developing disturbance in the flow, blowing up into a small low pressure system? I still don't see why it couldn't happen. If it did, winds could locally go even higher - and of course, anything higher than 80mph and serious problems are possible.

GFS 12z @ t108 Uppers @ t108 GEFS 12z ensembles Surely some good probability of snow showers starting at t108 ( for a couple of days ) with decent uppers. Elevation probably required so i will be heading to the Yorkshire hills in my location , but chances exist above 200 m across the country i would expect.

ECM #Wild Goose Chase ! The ECM upto its old tricks again , like the fading starlet who can’t accept no ones interested in seeing her perform anymore . It should be probably be #Norma Desmond ! We’ve seen the ECM pull this stunt all winter . I’d of course love to see it have the right trend . As Steve M just posted , re the breakaway cluster I think i’ll now rename it the Cluster of Hope!

Looking at the ECM ensemble spreads . That suggests that some solutions are more amplified than the op. Some take the low situated to the west of the UK at day 6 se into northern France . In terms of the transition from the PM flow to when the PV reforms is still subject to change . The pattern over the USA and Canada involves several shortwaves , with also phasing issues . This is what’s causing the divergence between the models in the medium term because of the knock on effects downstream . Its very unlikely these differences though will lead to a reprieve from the PV . That signal seems very strong but we live in hope.

Tues looks the day when some folk will see snow showers , uppers -7/dews negative, PM flow.. Altitude going to be needed for sure,question being how much altitude.

Looking good Monday evening throughout the Central belt ️

Lovely day reminds me of last year but nowhere near as warm, however it does feel warmer in that sun with maximum 9.1, following a cold night 0.3 minimum not quite managing an air frost should tonight I feel.

First signs of snowfall from the wrf as we go through Sunday, from the NW across toward @tiff just look at that constant area of CAPE and convective precip streaming in from the Atlantic its the reverse instead of a convective easterly it is a convective westerly

Lovely fresh morning. I wouldn't call it crisp, it's not cold enough for that. A few views from my commute:

My work is around 210 metres so I should see some of the white stuff when there Monday evening. I think there maybe a few nice surprises for many of us on here next week

I'm surprised that there isn't more interest here today

Almost certainly a cold outlier, extremely unlikely to verify, but we can but hope. Surely after months of dross we're owed a northern hemesperic picture that looks like this...

I have to say, I think the met office snow warning is pretty Conservative for Monday into Tuesday. 1-3 cm on ground above 150m and 5-10cm above 300m.... I reckon ground around 200m could be looking a good bit more than 1-3cm. I'm around 200m and places such as Shotts are about 240 - 260m.... I'll be amazed if there's only 1-3cm in these places. I had more than that last Tuesday!! Having said all that, even 3cm can turn into carnage when strong winds and drifting is involved, still very plausible to have exposed roads with decent drifts off fields etc but given the fact its a pm airflow and the snow is likely to be quite wet rather than the dry powdery snow produced from an easterly then drifiting may not be as bad as what it could potentially be, ala BFTE

something seen.for coldies... i know its a long way but maybe more of you have the feeling its at the horizon..... .

Icon for early sunday morning 10am showing 65-70mph winds across most of the middle of England closer to 80mph on the coasts of England,Wales Very high winds still into the afternoon Infact the high winds are still there into the evening. Quite a duration to be exposed to those gusts

Beautiful day with clear blue skies, light winds and feeling warm in the sun (current temperature 5.7c after a overnight low of -2.6c). Gained over 2hrs of daylight already since the winter solstice, great to be able to get to work in daylight!

Get yerself to Cowdenbeath or Burntisland. Did you see the bit that mentions possible frequent lightning strikes as well!? That along with 50/60mph gusts and snow! Absolute mayhem above 150/200 meters! Blizzards galore! Unbelievable!

Everyone’s phones buzzing in here as well!? Winter 2019/20 has finally arrived folks! Yaaaaaaaasssssss!

What a gorgeous morning. Everywhere white with a good frost and now clear blue skies. Got down to -1C imby. Lovely satellite image at 09.10 with much of the UK clear and snow visible on the Alps, Pyrenees and spine of Italy.

The ext mean anomalies this morning are all on the same page without complete agreement. The main difference concerns the orientation of the tpv,, now centred over northern Canada, and associated trough into the Atlantic.and thus the amount of influence from the subtropical high in the east

Those expecting much snow other than from the favoured elevation and Scotland are going to need further upgrades. I would say Derbyshire south unlikely as per these chart graphics, though hills and mountains in Wales should see some: So for those in the south.,SW SE and Midlands maybe hail, more likely cold rain. With the wind chill should feel very seasonal though. As for the ECM D10, wary as usual. The GEFS have a couple of members vaguely similar, but ATM an outlier solution and the GFS op seems a fair rep of the mean. A UK height anomaly looking a sensible call though how it manifests is not consistent in the GEFS yet. As for FI the GEFS have pulled back from a weaker tPV and it looks like it will still be the boss till the end of February. Maybe a signal for heights close to the UK but ATM FI is not too instructive though no sign of HLB'ing trending. The MJO into phase 6 to 7 won't show in the charts for another few days with average lag so the predicted post-D10 pattern is more to do with the underlying atmospheric pattern: If the MJO moves into phase 7 it will be nearly 4-weeks away so not sure how helpful that will be? That is assuming the underlying westerly cycle does not mute that signal and that any strat-trop coupling supersedes it as a driver. Saturday-Friday should be interesting at the very least weather wise with some snow around for Scotland and Wales and mountain life in England.

The best charts on Ecm are always at t240 this winter!

There’ll be very little in the way of snow for South Eastern parts of England - mostly for the high ground unfortunately. Places further North and West should do better especially higher ground like the Pennines.

I'm also surprised in the lack of interest being shown. Quite a bit of wintry potential on offer for next week. Yes it's not perfect but could well be all we get for the Winter!

Outlook - very windy over the weekend The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight After some early morning frost and fog today will be cloudy with sunny intervals Quite a clear night to follow but winds starting to increase as pressure is exerted from the west Friday will start with patchy frost and fog and once cleared many areas will stay relatively sunny but cloud will encroach from the west, courtesy of the frontal system, during the day and patchy rain will arrive around 1500 in western areas. And by now the wind is really starting to pick up Over Friday night and through Saturday the first frontal system sweeps through and the next quickly arrives on the scene and away to west around Newfoundland Ciara has appeared on the radar. So initially a band of rain then showers then more persistent rain, all accompanied by very strong winds By midday Sunday Ciara has arrived and is 951mb over the Hebrides so a wet and very windy day with severe gales and much colder air behind the cold front By Monday Ciara is away over Norway leaving the UK in a very strong, unstable, and cold W/NW airstream with frequent squally heavy showers/ particularly in north western areas which could well be of snow and hail And the showers could well coalesce courtesy of troughs embedded in the flow

Talk about Topsy-turvy weather,just look at that,at least the cold is prolonged a day or two next week 18z tonight v's 18z last night get your camera's out next week for the snow before heading down to the beach

3 weeks in a row the snow potential has been Mon-Wed and I've not been here for any of them due to work The M74 could be interesting early Monday but I' not sure if much will have happened there by then!

of a slowing Westerlies in the strato now it could be seen late Febr .....

That’s Atlantic air. If we’re getting excited about -6 Atlantic uppers, then we really have hit a new low. Nothing doing for 90% of the population.

ECM day 10 charts showing amplification should be banned. How many is that this Winter? A couple of dozen?

EC with a glimmer of hope at the end. Can we finally break this westerly dominated winter with a decent Scandinavia high.....let’s hope so.

Little change on Tuesday and needless to say feeling very cold in the strong wind And then remaining unsettled as the next frontal system arrives by Thursday, according to the gfs

There are a few unprintable replies to that

At this moment in time it is looking extremely snowy over high ground early next week. The likes of snake pass could be absolutely buried. Potentially serious conditions over these trans Pennine routes. Heavy snow plus gales would bring large drifts.