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Thanks jules, well I do not think your post is irrelevant . Always interesting. This forum is read quite widely abroad . C

ECM Day 9 > 10 continues to show promise with some mediocre heights in situ to the North & some atlantic ridging. At the very least perhaps some snow for Ireland & the west day 10.

Just for fun folks, but how often this winter have we seen a snow chart showing literally countrywide snow!! Answer we ain't... Yes perhaps it's a little OTT, but it's ruddy great to see all the same... I may frame it. Would be superb for us all to see a little of the white stuff now... We have been punished for long enough.

Shades of Jan 1984 cold zonality in the medium range of the models from early next week, more so the north, where it could be quite snowy at times. Blizzards conditions possible over higher ground, given gales are likely at times. All dependent on whether the jet sinks south enough. 500mb height forecast to become quite low (denoted by the purples on the 500mb/slp charts) as will 850mb height, so even though 850mb temp looks nothing special at -5 to -7c, the height of the 850mb level will be lower than normal. This means a snowflake will have less distance to melt below that level. The TPV core is being displaced over Norwegian Sea 8-10 day timeframe on 00z EC and GFS, note small height rise area over pole on EC too

18Z GFS has one of the tighest gradient "direct hits" I've ever seen.

Good agreement on a wild spell of weather but differences emerge towards day ten . The GFS might have the colder uppers and that raging storm but after that its NH picture at day ten is awful for cold . The ECM has less excitement or as the case might be less to fear depending on whether you like having your roof blown off ! But at day ten is much better than the GFS in terms of the PV and colder prospects going forward . You can generally correlate cold prospects in a more zonal pattern with one look at the PV set up and any associated wedges of heights to the north and ne . You need some forcing on the jet to push this south and you’d want a jet track more se near the UK . By day ten the GFS is losing those wedges and reforming the PV , downhill from there. The ECM is better as the PV remains disrupted with the profile much better to the north . Of course we’ve seen this from the ECM countless times this winter , and the better output at day ten doesn’t last past a day . So of course it’s a case of waiting a few runs to see whether it’s onto something or whether this is another of its long list of one hit wonders !

I’m actually looking forward to some rather exciting weather for a change even if we don’t get any snow, as long as it actually gets here without being watered down that is

Winter looks to arrive this weekend and into Wk2 with the potential for some very stormy weather under a very unstable/cold PM flow.

Wow now this will cause carnage nationwide from snow to rain to extreme wind speeds . Bring it on

I think it’s very likely a deep low will track ene towards the UK . However pinning down the detail this far out is impossible . So much depends on a variety of factors . The wedge of heights towards the n/ ne how much forcing is placed on the jet . The point at which the weakish shortwave engages those low heights in the west Atlantic and the associated much colder upper air and the subsequent rapid deepening of that . If the low hits the UK , the northern flank of that could see some snow , more especially with elevation . Generally the deeper the low the more it will try and track more ne , so a weaker system is more likely to be modelled further south . The low might well miss the majority of the UK and just skirt past the nw of Scotland . So really as one can see it’s really impossible to say what will happen . Earlier some very unstable PM air moves se , so some heavy showers , hail, snow even to low levels at times . Higher ground though is probably needed for decent accumulations . The thing to keep an eye on is those wedges of heights towards the n and ne . You need those to verify . These are what help to force the jet more south and with it the colder air . The depth of cold if you look at just the 850 values won’t be much to write home about but the source and depth higher up means your freezing level is lowered especially in the showers . So a lot going on ! But still a little too far out to be sure of that favourable jet re that colder PM flow and as for the likely low, huge uncertainty there with the track .

Next Monday's weather could be a tad flatulent?

I love it when you talk dirty Feb.

It's central Europe probably above the posters back garden. pretty irrelevant to everyone else

Weather models have updated their scale to +10 Saturdays ECM HRES AO was +8.1 Todays number NAO +6 AO. +7 These values are in a total league of their own 1990 the mecca of +AO & a cold strat only reached +5.9. 2020 is the new bench mark of extremes. Lets hope 2021 is at the other end of the extreme scale!

Some serious attempt here to get really cold air (given the source) in to the UK, angle of attack looks sharper, and it might be a bit windy, pub run T162:

Indeed the bigger the balloon the louder the bang when it pops. also just to add i have Snaw falling right now.. didnt see that coming in any of the model output so just goes to show that the models do not see everything and surprises do happen.

Further to my post above.. They'll be small lows / waves popping up from the parent low if the mid-range charts come to fruition. Certainly an interesting period of weather for those of us who are all-rounders.

This is total weather nerd stuff but gfs predicting record breaking low pressure for Iceland at just T144 (current record 930mb)

One more post just to illustrate how extreme the 18Z GFS run is. Here is comparison to the GFS on the day of the 2014 storm which produced a wind gust of 159 kph at Shannon Airport, the highest recorded there since 1961. Today's 18Z GFS on the right... vs

Well the fun all seems to start properly next Monday, so here's the ECM at T168: Pretty much as all the other models at this point, there is consistency also about the T850s at this time T168 as far as they impact the UK: GFS the coldest, but all of this will probably be marginal at best for snow at lower levels, if the pattern persists, then the shorter range models may help, and with wind strength too, looks a wild period of weather throughout next week whatever! I wonder if there is a chance the trop vortex might be about to blow itself to bits with this onslaught, ECM T240:

Living on the West Coast of Scotland...might not be a good idea to take my two year old son a wee walk with his kite during these few days... ECM: Wild stuff with rain/hail/sleet/snow! (Blizzards over high ground) Looking forward to it! (If it indeed becomes reality) Have a good night everyone!

Thats some cold air coming in from Canada/greenland!!!gona be some really heavy snow showers coming in from the northwest!!!

The positive AAM anomalies are resuming in the extratropics (at a similar latitude to the UK), which is partially behind the continued and now reinforced +NAO flow. In order for the UK winter pattern to be changed, we need those tropical +AAM transports to move north and -AAM deposits establish close to the poles to help to dislodge the strong tropospheric polar vortex. Looking at the top chart’s upward trend, which shows a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex, we are running out of options, except looking towards a consistent zonal outlook. However later in February may be more interesting in terms of the strat. More details here on my blog for UK/Europe: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/02/03/europe-on-the-long-term-3rd-feb-2/

SNAW IS ON I REPEAT SNAW IS ON....YASSSSSS...

Nothing here but Aberdeenshire council have put so much salt down on the roads here it almost looks like snaw.

Quite literally!!finally some adventurous weather to talk about!!!been such a lame winter so far!!one of the worst if not the worse winter ever in my lifetime!! Not had a single flake of snow!!could change next week!!3 or 4 cold days and nights coming up this week as a starter!!

Thunder / Hail / Snow / Rain / Kitchen Sink

Blizzards approaching Northern England.

Oh look! It's raining! Oh my! It's windy again! Golly gosh! Ferry suspended again! Basically a rinse and repeat scenario from just about any day in January. Too boring for words so I'll head off and make more tea.

I remember a spell of heavy wet snow giving a layer of slush from a cold westerly flow one evening that month living in Kent, it became ingrained in my mind even though I was young, as it was an unusual direction to get snow from. Anyway, less likely this time round. Long way off I know, but given an uninterrupted WNWly flow from NE Canada to southern Greenland, 00z EC shows how it could be quite snowy Tuesday next week in exposed western areas, Ireland/ N. Ireland, western Scotland, west Wales and NW England.

Big fat snaw flakes here in East Kilbride Hopefully this is just a wee taster of what is to come next week

Yes, that is what I've been musing last day or two. There seems to be an implicit assumption that if there is to be a sting in the tail of this abysmal winter, it would have to come via events in the strat...well there is no sign of that in the immediate or even medium future. But there have been a couple of interesting signs that the trop vortex might destabilise after next week's shenanigans, two examples from GFS FI which I posted yesterday: ECM T240 headed that way? Way, way to soon to tell, but it is something to watch. But much interest, first, in next weeks storminess...

Atlantic Snow Streamers oot west. Zoom in. Latest Meteor M2 satellite pass + thermal imagery.

The GFS storm given its depth and track would effect a huge amount of people and is really a horror show. Although as a wind phobic that’s really a personal point . I know some people love to see these storms .

I was wondering that too Mike, with the PV ramped to the max when it does finally fall apart could there be unusual repercussions down the line? Perhaps a case of the 'harder they come.....'.

Yikes, looks a monster at 198..... wind off the scale. Southern Ireland and Wales in the Bullseye

UKMO and GFS at 144 A brutal period of weather coming up, that lump of PV is looking rather angry and has its sights on the UK and Ireland. Those at elevation, particularly in Scotland could be getting buried in the white stuff, but also losing their roofs!

So, after 14 days' wind, rain, sleet and other garbage, today's GEF 06Z at least ends on a half-decent note... If only I had even a modicum of belief that it'll verify!

Wild wet and windy here today. Cool too at 4c . Roll on this Dry, hot summers could become 'norm' in Scotland WWW.BBC.CO.UK Researchers say the country should prepare for more summers like 2018, with temperatures of about 30C. Really grumpy old farmer getting very fed up with wet days and very muddy ground.

Ooh - 100mph winds! Burns Night 1990 or 1987 Michael Fish 'hurricane' redux?

Stronger Heights over Iceland on the 6z which should push the lobe of vortex a little further South into the run.

Just ordered a top up of the oil tank, the current price is 42.9p a litre. i asked how come it's that low and the reply was " it's the lock down in China" if you use oil for heating maybe a good time to book a top up.. oh yeah the weather. sunny windy and some place between cold and mild, not sure what you call that..

Mistyqueen to hell wi the tea - I think it's time to start on the gin. Get in a crate of it! Shuggee is the mistake in the date or in the colour and density of her make up? (oh meeeoww)

Amazing the time wasted on posting these GFS maps that show hurricane force winds at day 8+ with the following apocalyptic warnings - a couple of times this has happened and nearer the time absolutely nothing like what was shown. I suppose it keeps some interest in this bore-fest winter.

Latest MJO .....hope for late Febr 7/8/1....its a hell of a game but new round is ahead maybe

I've now managed to set up more sophisticated software which allows better resolution weather images than I had before. Here's an example from half hour ago showing beefy showers (snow / rain ?) out west.

The GFS has done it again. Winds are off the scale on Meteociel

Long way out but a system like this has potential for storms, snow and flooding: Certainly consistent output from GFS and Met looks to be saying high probability. Scotland could get a dumping.

Cold zonal outlook looks the form horse with small low disturbances from a polar sauce,could give some white stuff even to the south.Intersting next week coming up best chance this winter for something wintery. a

It is very much a nowcast situation with tomorrow re. snow potential, could be 10cm like EC or nothing as per GFS, then some nice frost to follow before some cold zonality hopefully