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Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

Hello DRL Get stuffed Regards ECMWF

This is how I view your posts. Like an enquisitive dog with my head going from side to side I like them tho

The big relief this evening is the improved UKMO output . That model is really one you can’t afford to not have onside . If that showed what the ICON did I’d be hitting the brandy .

Hello ECMWF. This evening, I would very much appreciate it if you could follow the GFS run. Ideally, the Atlantic High to be even more amplified backing a little further West, so the whole UK gets a direct hit with a mega Northerly. All spots to be under -12*C 850 hPa temperatures. Then, when the High tumbles into Scandinavia (I did say I want you to follow the GFS), I want a deep negatively tilted Low in the Atlantic to disrupt and slide under the block. This disrupted deep Low needs to head into the nearby continent, while another deep Low drops South to the East of the Scandinavian block, bringing a strong European Trough into play. Exact destination of Low Pressure - Northern Italy please! And the Scandinavian High has to be orientated so it hoovers -15*C 850 hPa temperatures Westwards through the UK. You can finish off your run with lots of disturbances spilling in from the East bringing an abundance of snow for all the cold fans of the UK. Thank you for your co-operation. From a greedy red line!

Good to see you back NWS, and that's a big improvement from Exeter! There's plenty to get excited about from the 12z ensembles, and within the next 10 day's... I'm gerrin a tad excited... There's a slight stutter appearing in me typing hand...

WOW the gem is not a gem and sends a BBQ southerly it's either.... or

Best Charts I’ve seen all winter , Can we start the long journey to get it down to T0. Its not to much to ask is it ?

Just a brief one from myself, notable that UKMO has moved towards GFS this evening and Exeter now mentioning snow to low levels in the north and east in their latest update.

The ECM clusters didn't really pick up on this potential northerly incursion last week, and tbh they still aren't generally as punchy as the op runs: Only the op run cluster has that trough directly to the south of us, which would shut out the Atlantic for longer and bring a genuine risk of snow for all. Having said that, all clusters agree on at least a short spell of northerly influence, so high confidence in a cold end to next week now, even if a generally drier one away from susceptible coasts. Further ahead, this morning's clusters seem keen to flatten the high over us, which could trap colder air within for a longer period of time depending upon orientation. The T366 (D14) chart, although reintroducing a westerly component, looks ripe for a fresh attempt at a North Atlantic High. My view of weather history is that if you can achieve a certain pattern once, you've a much greater chance of it repeating soon after. And just to round off ... there was a stella wintery cluster in last night's ensembles. Cluster 5 is a textbook snow set-up with low pressure hitting an easterly draw. It only had 13% of the runs, so low chances, but it will be interesting to watch if the cluster reappears any time soon. All in all, wintry prospects definitely on the up now, and February could be a very different month.

Thank you for your kind words ECMWF

So the reality here with the modelling is that GFS > ECM diverge on the timeline 168 >192. Unusually the GFS sends more energy south East to form an undercut. Its a 'wait & see scenario' - especially as UKMO not in range. Model bias reveals no clues really as ECM 12z can be over amplified but also often very progressive - Also GFS can be to progressive. The occasions ( in the last 15 years ) where the GFS has beaten a euro has ONLY been in atlantic high scenarios - NOT scandi blocking so the GFS has a chance here. I would say middle ground is the bet here but ar what point - 50-50 aint much cop but 65/35 in favour of GFS is pretty good ... So lets wait & see - GFS consistency gives confidence ..!!

A few photos from this afternoon, taken at Glengavel, above Strathaven, just over 250 metres above sea-level. I wasn't able to get out until mid-afternoon, so thawing on the lower ground was well-advanced by the time, but there was plenty of wet snow around higher up. Felt pretty raw as there were showers of icy rain, sleet and one heavy burst of wet snow in the hour or so I spent there.

Let’s go back a week and have a look at what gfs was suggesting and compare to what it is suggesting now for around the 4th. People hang on every word from the met in their extended but they change it when the output changes. They, like us will be watching with interest and will change their wording if required as they did today.

Got a slight covering last night but it quickly melted away this morning. It was nice to see some snowfall at last after what has been a poor winter so far. Here are a couple of pics from a family member who had a nice walk in the snow near Armadale. The charts are looking good as we head into next week especially for the north and east.

Looking at the radar it seems to be heading our way for a change...currently huge flakes falling its covering the ground really qulckly. Its snawing like its never snawed before...chucking it doon..!!!

Only snow on the hills here today and just had rain at low level still some nice scenery though.

A rather traumatic GFS 06 hrs run for coldies . Nerves are likely to be shredded over the next few days . At one point during the run the upstream trough looked pretty ugly . Around T150 hrs it’s looking too rounded and unable to help deliver a decent ridge ahead of it . Then if you follow further upstream over Canada the saviour arrives by way of a wave of amplification which helps to sharpen up the previously ugly looking trough . If you follow the NH view you can clearly see how events over eastern Canada save the day for coldies . Because of the timeframes involved certainly don’t bank on the northerly just yet . There’s a lot going on and we’d need to get a few more runs in the bag before having more confidence in that verifying .

@240. . and we tap into possible continental -surge.... this run has everything a cold -fan could ask for!!!

have a kit-kat! !!!

This has got to be a boom chart, good old fashioned battle ground.

I'll buy-you this evolution. .and raise ya. .the latter supports! !.. it's momentum at its best... and takes no prisoners 4 UK cold! !! watch out! !

Snowed in here... Higher roads/hills inland looking good - across the water in Argyll and Bute snowline is roughly 50 meters. Good to see snow pictures in here - enjoy!

00z GFS op at the cold end of the ensembles spread, but not without support. usually GFS has a good track record with modelling northerlies at range, though the 00z op probably at the extreme end wrt depth of cold and duration, given EC is much less cold and shorter in duration with the northerly, while GEM and ICON don't look to entertain the idea of a northerly at all. So caution required if getting too excited looking at those T850 and precipitation charts from GFS.

Ah ha, my tactic of having an early night worked. Actually woke up several times and had a peak out of the window so no surprise to see snow this morning. It was coming down quite heavily around midnight.

boom buttons @the ready. . phasing already uping the anti! !

Record breaking snow brings chaos and bemusement to Aberdeenshire locals.... Record breaking in sense the only snow so far this winter... and its almost all gone as its a glorious sunny day with temperatures up to 2c and rising with light winds. The investment in a sledge for the kids a couple of years ago was not one of the better ones.

as per -it's 100 % high cell placement. yet the gfs-has a nack for ironing out that scenario 1st! so that's a bonus if it's 2 previous runs are suggesting. anything near that. .@18z/00z. . let's hope the rest are on a catch up basis. although in the grand scheme the ecm 00z is indeed a small step in that direction. ..and has no trouble bringing the cold in with it in directional! !! all eyes on it! ! further the ens. . can only be taken seriously in medium term.. as the deciphering plays out.. so are bound by default. ..to atm-note a drop. ..then-supposed warm up! !.. it would be nonsensical at this point for them not too. as evolution plays out.......1 way or another! !!!

Back with a boom, not talking deep FI neither. I’ll give it another 2 days before getting too exited though!! Check out those windchill temps!!

It’s always a concern when one of the smaller models keeps churning out flatter solutions . And these are showing up within T120hrs . One run isn’t terrible but since yesterday the ICON isn’t interested and it’s always at the back of your mind why it’s keeping on that track. The upstream pattern is quite complex and small changes make a big impact on the troughing which in turn effects how far north the ridge goes .

bless ya

Well the GFS op may have been a slight outlier, but perhaps the ECM op was a little progressive with temps by the later stages... A respectable mean on the whole, with plenty of colder members and the mean remaining lower than the op.

Thank god!!! ecm at 168. lets hope it counts down to this^

Okey dokey, GFS, UKMO and ECM at 144 (in that order). Good consistency from the 'big 3' at this point. ECM maybe slight sharper up towards Greenland.

Boom charts from the 12z GFS. the beast is coming.. BFTE here we go. all aboard the looney train.

GFS12 goes for WINTER easterlies

Wintry shower passed through earlier from the West while the sunrise to the East - I will take this as a consolation prize for having no snow! Wee video of the sunrise as well. IMG_9503.MOV I’m off to see if I can get permission from the other half to head for the higher hills. Have a good day everyone.

Same here, white world ootside and more forecast for this afternoon

Big pretty flake snow kilbirnie

Omg a good GFS18 hrs run and Arsenal won a game . I need to go and lie down ! Just a word of caution re tonight’s GFS 18 hrs run . The mid Atlantic seems to be modelled differently each run , we have these small features popping up and then disappearing next run. Here two small lows phase and thankfully don’t over deepen . We don’t want a deepening low trying to run ne . And the key parts of the run start around 6 days out . Apart from that I’m on board and ready to order my ear muffs and woolie hat!

It snowed heavily for a time around midnight but turned back to sleety rain. The remaining slight cover then froze so very icy this morning. I am told that it was rain in the Ferry though Shaded bits up the road still got a cover so took photo as it may be all we see here this Winter. You never know though, something like the following chart may happen

Ukmo is absolutely horrendous!!just waiting for the inevitable flattening out to occur later on this evening or in a couple of days!!just aint falling for this rubbish anymore this winter!!!sorry aint being negative but its just the way it is dudes!!ec46 and seasonals have been bang on!!sometimes i wonder is it better to stick to those than the models themselves!!bring that notherly to around 96 hours then we talking!!!

Great to see the snow pics on here this morning despite my own obvious disappointment. Absolutely heehaw here after an awful wet evening. Yet again a frontal event failed to deliver here. Stuck in the mild sector with the heavy ppn really staying out to the west of Edinburgh tracking NE'wards. The modelling from GFS was rubbish as usual. Euro4 did much better showing my location being towards the easterly extent of the ppn. I expect to see plenty of snow covered cars heading into town today from areas ridiculously close to here. Infuriating stuff

Nice to see the photos and reports! Currently on the train between Glasgow and Edinburgh wishing it was light! Needless to say not expecting to see anything white in coastal NE Fife! @Norrance how did you do in Dundee?

absolutely beautiful. .. -12s. ..widespread. .. and the bottled up freezer points are dripping over us. .. stunning 00z gfs! !!!

Usually we fall back to earth with a bump but not with 00z is class. A northerly plunge of sorts looks likely...

a cracking start to the day. ..where the arguably most reliable suite 00z. .is actually better than the 18z. .great evolution. ..on both block format. ..and polar incursion.

Yes I was thinking of you though.... Look its even lying