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This is the strongest warming at 1mb i have ever seen modelled, also inching closer and closer with each run to a technical SSW now.

How often have we even seen any graphics showing a snow risk at all this winter, let alone at day 5! I'm not gonna over hype a typical winter set up, but at least it's fun to see after all this time... And remember folks... Just a few cms of snow next week could cause mayhem.... We simply ain't used to it...

I will stick around for Feb seeing as technically we can still see good snowfall for another 6-8 weeks- PTB 19 was the pick of the Ensembles setting up a very decent cold spell towards the end !

ECM flat as a witches t*t at 144- total pants V UKMO. Scrap that.

The ECM starts off badly and ends up with the jet tracking quite far south . The PV also looks more disrupted . Although nothing tangible is showing up as in a clear route to cold that energy digging quite far south into the Atlantic is a positive . We are seeing some changes upstream post day 7 . With a bit more amplitude upstream at day 8 onward the ECM would have looked a lot more interesting . The obituaries for February might have been a little premature .

Morning all Some of us could see our first low ground snowfall between Monday and Wednesday - short window of opportunity but as I said before I will take that with both hands! One man’s/woman’s trash is another man’s/woman’s treasure! ECM 120 hours GFS for similar timeframe. If you are over 200 meters in the above areas it is game on - low ground will at the very least have a wintry mix! (If these charts come true!) Mention of showers turning increasingly wintry here from Monday with the risk of gales - interesting weather for myself and many other weather enthusiasts. Bring on the snow and severe gale events! It is supposed to be Winter after all! Have a great weekend everyone!

Decent ending with a wedge.

Crikey

are we on the verge of a snap bang -wallop situation! !?. where upper ramifications /outer telecons. . are in a similar sequence just as we get a 'possible ' first eyed peek @winter. ..frfrom as usually undesirable plot /polaratlantic. . (if ya like )?.. and our- locked in format drops as the lag effective also starts process! !??.. as some posts I've read. ....something is brewing! !!... #I'm sure here

The Pacific convection cycle has worked as expected, and actually the current spike would be above expectations and a cold lover’s best case scenario if the vortex hadn’t strengthened and coupled as it did. The forecasts and hopecasts didn’t expect such a swift vortex intensification and dominance of the pattern. Clearly the seasonal modelling correctly predicted that intensification this time around, and sustained IO forcing in the flatter phases of the MJO profile served to enhance/support that situation. Perhaps also too little emphasis was given to the still weakly positive QBO in December. Cold winters from wQBO Decembers are rare. Early to be writing off the season as the current momentum surge may yet have positive consequences, and a greater chance of blocking in March given the timing of the next Pacific wave is distinctly possible, but my own feeling as of today is that we are pretty much done for this cold season now. I can see a Euro High dominated February on the horizon. Here’s hoping for a slap in the face.

A couple more days of anticyclonic gloom.. then a return to the westerlies, with every chance of some wintry precipitation down to relatively low levels in the north early next week - all models are showing quite cold uppers. A split then occurs, UKMO showing a wedge of heights behind the low, which could change the atlantic profile aligning jet on a more NW-SE angle, ECM quickly builds in azores heights but then shows a similiar scenario to UKMO - indeed a negatively tilted trough - not been able to say that all winter. GFS doesn't show the wedge just heights languishing to the south, but in far reaches does shake up the atlantic profile. Will be pleased to see the back of the current high - it has orientated itself in the worse position for anything sunny, cold and frosty, or even especially mild.. Signals are also emerging that the PV is about to undergo a splintering effect, allowing perhaps more ridge/wedge development inbetween low pressures, something that hasn't been able to happen all winter so far.

Both the ECM and GFS show quite a lot of energy digging south into the Atlantic . The day ten ECM op isn’t too bad , that even shows the PV becoming a bit more disrupted . The problems been getting these day ten charts to survive and count down .

GEM has Monday's system further south JMA has it as some sort of wave rather than an enclosed system ECM has something similar, it to further south as a smaller feature mostly affecting the Channel and northern France NAVGEM, again, a similar feature with the winds mainly affecting France. Definitely a chance of snowfall across the UK.

I will go for 14th Feb as im off work on hols ! Just an aside there is a storm brewing into next week - could track very close to the region more especially the North parts & EA For example 06z ICON brings the storm across the SE with snow into the midlands 962 MB is very low & MB lower than 00z

I’m afraid that if the current spike in AAM aided by MJO convection into the maritimes and maybe a bit beyond doesn’t shift the overall pattern dictated by the vortex (and the odds are against it now) then I think this is exactly what we will get. Euro high to setup as the Pacific signal heads back to Africa encouraged by vortex control of the high latitudes. Then a renewed bout of convection at the turn of Feb/March which ironically will hit when the vortex is fast losing power due to seasonal transition...and as a result a tendency for high lat blocking to finally arrive, just when Spring lovers won’t want it. I don’t give a hoot about Spring and when it arrives - but a more blocked March would need to tap into cold air over Europe and by end of Feb I don’t see there being any. So it becomes a colder month but without much chance of really cold synoptics and snow. Any hope? 2 slim ones. That the models are completely misreading the Pacific signal which currently is spiking high...and that momentum increases aided by forecast East Asian torque do much more damage to the vortex than most are expecting now heralding an interesting second half of February, or actually we get an end of Feb SSW brought about by the softening of the vortex now followed up by a knock out blow end of Feb which creates a 2018 style March reversal. But in truth March18 was freakish in its intensity, and to pin hopes on another such setup feels a long shot. Has to be very much an outside chance, though snow lovers I’m sure will keep an eye on a Simon Lee’s new North Atlantic dipole index which I think was developed partly as a result of the extraordinary 2018 setup in the hope that a similar occurrence might be possible. The IO temperature profile did for us this year - I’m increasingly convinced this is what the post winter debrief will say. Nothing we can do but shrug and move on. Forget climate change for a moment - climate change is a million miles away from ending pools of very cold air developing over polar latitudes in winter with the potential for that cold to seep south. It’s a nonsense to suggest that our winters will never see cold again. But rising pressure in the sub tropical belt looks to be linked to climate change as waters warm globally, and so the frequency of such events is likely to decline. Year on year patience may well need to become a powerful virtue until/unless climate change brings further perhaps unseen impacts of global circulation...and by the time there is much chance of that I expect to be a poltergeist haunting the corridors of the MetOffice......

9C at nearly 9pm on the 23rd Jan in NE Scotland just ain't on. I'll believe snow in a forecast this winter when I'm actually watching it falling.

That'll be my latest cup of tea

The Canadian high and the deepish low near the ne USA might give a window of opportunity . The storm if it’s amplified enough could force some better ridging ahead of it .

I have been comforting myself this winter with the fact that I am off skiing to Ischgl in Austria for the second week of February and would at least see some snow there! Mind you, even that's been a worry! But as that time comes into the range of the models, I'm reminded that when I was last there two years ago, it coincided with perhaps the best bit of winter weather we've had for many a year as the "Beast from the East" visited. By the time I returned the excitement and the snow was on its last legs. There's just a hint in the far reaches of the models that, once again, I could miss out on a nice bit of UK winter weather. Perhaps not in the same class as 2018's week, but certainly one which, if it did materialise, would be sensational when compared to what we have endured so far this winter.

Nothing what was suggested for Jan has occured as the focus was from Eastern blocking - maybe the torpedo is still circulating. The only winter forecasts that have been amy good are the seasonal ones & what Tamara put out in November - December. Anyway a nasty storm developing at day 5 with the potential for heavy rain & storm force winds with the added bonus of blizzards for some >150M

The photos below show the kind of visibility which could be 'enjoyed' in parts of rural Lanarkshire and Ayrshire this afternoon. Mist and moisture everywhere - it soaks you without the need for any rainfall. The lack of sunshine suppressed the temperature to about 7 to 8 degrees Celsius so not quite as mild as some places. Looks like back to a more mobile pattern fairly soon, and probably back on the cold side of the jet stream as next week progresses, but still very little chance of any low ground snowfall in the near future by the looks of things.

Yes - 4 +IOD winters now in the recent record and all have had high winter CETs. I have added the IOD as a feature to pay serious notice to in every winter run up. Produces the wrong forcing in terms of upsetting the vortex. The thrill of the chase is 2/3 of the fun I agree. It is a shame that so many white flags have been raised around the forums on both sides of the Atlantic for this season. Even the ever optimistic Masiello has pretty much thrown in the towel. We move on - stuff happens. But as to the million dollar question - some of the more significant building blocks are in place for 2020/21 already. QBO will be favourable (bar anything remarkable) and solar will be low and turning towards cycle 25 - and there is a suggestion that the turn into a new cycle is a 2-3 year cold sweet spot. Also at the moment here isn’t a long term forecast for a savagely strong Nino or Niña (both of which do not favour cold patterns) though there are many months to pass before we get a sense of the ENSO signature in October/November as we run into the next thrill season. So maybe 2020/21 might be it. For perfect context we would like to see the warm water around Greenland expand, and the North Pacific warm mass moderate a bit. And most certainly we don’t want a record breaking IOD again!

Yes - could do with it being a bit bigger... but little acorns...

It's a faux snow forecasting feeding frenzy!

Hmmm is it me or does the gfs and ukmo starting to look a little better with each run in the last 24 hours!!not a snowstorm by any means but colder with northwest winds and troughs going in a more south east direction

Brilliant post @Catacol I completely agree with that summary. Large cold pools will exist for a long time, it's going to be a case of the UK being lucky for a direct hit from it! I firmly believe we have cycles regarding cold and mild spells, unfortunately due to climate change these scenarios may become less frequent, but they will turn up in clusters non the same! I'm convinced we will still see a repeat situation of the 82/83 freeze, and of course the 87/88 freeze. I still have vivid memories of these winters even though I was only a teen back in 88,what a petty we didn't have mobile phones back then, to stamp it further into the memory! But being knee deep in snow during a whiteout while sledging is a moment I will never forget. I still have the scars on my backside as proof as well! But it was that darn cold I couldn't feel it.. I only hope some of these spells can manifest themselves pretty soon, just to give the younger audience an idea of how great it could be.

Yes, I rarely bother with SSW watching as it is as bad as D10 ECM charts or the Pub Run, rarely verifying in a way we need for long-term cold. Cohen has been suggesting that it will be a minor event for a week or so. As for my locale for the next two weeks, above average as a whole: A January CET of >3.0c above average looks close. Much of the same into late in FI, the mean suggests the main tPV returning to our NW, so maybe the jet further south, and possibly an underlying cooler flow on a NW to SE axis, or close to: mean D16> MJO> Other than that, zero blocking, no sign of the current MJO signal after the 10-day lag, no sign of the tPV waning or any disrupt between strat-trop coupling. The forecast MJO dying in 6, COD back to 5 at low amplitude, and maybe signs back to 1 late on? For most, maybe a cool(cold) day here and there, up north and higher ground some transient snow, before the accompanying warm sector melts. Rain at times and with the tPV chunk sliding west to east to our north any satellite low runners close to the jet could intensify so maybe stormy at times. More late Autumnal than winter synoptic really.

Hi s.r. and Morning all, Yes, Ian Currie remarked on the Year of 2008. In all his 40+ Years of supplying data to the Met.Office, that was the "shortest" gap between a settling Snow event, for any one Year. He has an incredible memory, regarding notable Weather events, which soon becomes apparent if you read one of his County Weather Books, or indeed engage in a conversation about a notable Weather event. He made me laugh, Yesterday. I started our conversation, by asking Ian if he had a few minutes to spare. He replied, "Not really, I'm in the middle of writing an article for the Royal Meteorological Society," He suggested I call back later on in the Evening. He then spoke for about 45 minutes, on the subject of the 1962/63 Winter and that amazing offer, regarding his Books and a copy of one of his Quarterly Magazines. Typical Ian, he could "talk for England", when it comes to the Weather!! He really is a lovely Guy and so affable and accommodating with his time. Ian is 70 now and up to a couple of Months ago, was conducting around 4 Talks a Week but he's now down to 1 a Week, as it was getting too tiring for him. His latest Talk was over at Ripley, near Guildford, on Tuesday Evening. He reminds me of a quirky, absent minded, Professor. As well as being a Met.Office observer and writing a series of Weather Books, in a parallel life, he was a Geography Master at a School in Caterham. Below is a "grab" of an image of Ian standing next to a Snowdrift outside that Caterham School, during that epic Wintry spell, of Jan 987. Apologies, for the poor quality of the Photo: I've seen quite a number of his Weather Talks. Below is a YouTube clip of Ian performing his Thames Frost Fairs Talk: I've seen this Talk, four times but would quite happily see it again. Ian has a very entertaining style of speaking. The last time I saw this, was in November with my Wife. He also appeared on a Radio 4 Programme, in which he wrote an article about Thames Frost Fairs. He still has a Weather "slot" on BBC Radio Surrey's Gardening programme, "Dig It". Right off to view the "Form Book" (the 00z Model Runs), to try and glean if we're likely to enter a potential Wintry spell in the coming Weeks, for my Competition entry. Regards, Tom.

This is extraordinary. I've not had the heating on today, which for me is now unheard of in January.

I’m quoting myself lol ECM completely un-interested in the little ridge at 144 HOWEVER....it has a similar idea at 192 leading to a much more favourable set up at 240.....let’s hope something can finally punch through and disrupt the zonal flow and upset the pattern! 192-240

yeah. .and has been spewing up for around a week now in supporting datas. . Ie- EPS/GEFS. .500 geos! etc and is now getting a grip in the operationals. .. and a time shortening sync! !!! 4 the 100th time it 'could be' a noteworthy semi -polar incursion! !!

UKMO starting to look a bit more interesting imo. Signs of HP building out east and lows sinking southwards with time.

Just to show a little more detail compared to the other models, here's the UKV: Not worth getting hung up on these, as it will change, a lot!

NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP Catchy little Title isn't it? Not. I've decided to split the Entrants into 2 Groups, as I did in my Snow Depth Cup. BLUE - Thames North. and RED - Thames South. I've also entered your Elevation, when it appears in your Avatar. Elevation could be critical, if Temperatures are marginal. You can find your Elevation on this Elevation finder Website. See link below: https://routecalculator.co.uk/elevation I've just tested the link, with my Elevation and it works. If I knew each Entrants' elevation, it would help me formulate some Betting Odds. Could I ask those Entrants whose Elevation doesn't appear in their Profile, to register it on the Thread, please. ENTRY NUMBER MEMBER Dates (2020) 1. Timbo 10th Feb 8. TomSE12 (41 Mts) 14th Feb 10. Steve Murr (150 Mts) 14th Feb 11. Septic Peg (Guest) (41 Mts) 15th Feb 2. Lottiekent (164 Mts) 16th Feb 9. Team squirrel 18th Feb 3. Stainesbloke 19th Feb 13. snowray (40 Mts) 22nd Feb 17. Bluebell 22nd Feb 18. snow Queen one 24th Feb 14. SenlacJack (81 Mts) 26th Feb 5. Donna thw 27th Feb 4. pinball wizard 29th Feb 16. lassie23 29th Feb 7. Snowrye (70 Mts) 1st March 6. Froze were the days 9th March 12. claret 047 (30 Mts) 23rd March 15. General Cluster 29th November We've got a nice spread of Entries - 7 Thames North and 11 Thames South. Right off to view the latest Form Book (12z Model Runs). I will try and formulate Betting Odds for 3 Events. Outright Winner, Top Thames North and Top Thames South. I'll pop up those Betting Odds, later on Tonight. Regards, Tom. ?️ P.S. Both myself and my Wife Colette (Septic Peg), have drawn Entry numbers that correspond to our Birthday Dates. It's an omen, I tell ya!!

Yes it didn't work out for the Bratislava region as expected. Still better then us in the Roznava region. Last of the snow only staying in shaded areas with poor forecast for next 10 days. But I would happily take a day like today, overnight hard frost and blue skies currently. @Nath thanks for positive feedback from you trip to Bratislava, for similar reasons I decided to move back home after 15 years in Ireland. It is very safe here with the bonus of reasonably unspoiled nature and mountains, generally welcoming and helpful people/neighbors around

Well, the dog-end of the GFS 00Z paints (to me at least) a very interesting situation: the extent of >+5C uppers looks very large, for the time of year, and the temperature gradient (+5 to -5C) appears to be very steep, across pretty-much the entire chart...No wonder places such as Newfoundland have experienced such monumental snow falls? And, as prospects for a major SSW subside... I wonder what'll happen, once the tPV starts to autodestruct...?

GFS 00Z MONDAY Winters back. More like it.

Usual caveats too with these charts but snow for quite a few too with the system on Icon.

ICON 06z brings the storm tracking across the South Midlands out past EA- Thats a damaging system.

Having viewed the Current Form Book (00z Model Runs), there's nothing remotely Wintry showing up there. I've decided to consult an Ancient Form Book, that of Scottish Meteorologist Alexander Buchan. Buchan Spells Buchan spells are either cold or warm spells that the 19th century Scottish meteorologist Alexander Buchan claimed happened at roughly the same times each year. Through statistical analysis, Buchan claimed to have discerned patterns in the Scottish weather that repeated about the same time of the year. He theorized that these were predictable interruptions (either warmer or colder) in the smooth annual transition of temperatures between the seasons. They are now believed by meteorologists to be random events. Buchan cold spells: 7-14 February 11-14 April 9-14 May 29 June - 4 July 6-11 August 6-13 November So, I'm going for a Snowy, Romantic and Snuggly Valentine's Day (14th Feb). Which falls right at the end of Buchan's February Cold spell. It also happens to be a Day before my Wedding Anniversary. We tried to book Valentine's Day but the Registry Office were fully booked for Valentine's Day. What makes you think I'm taking this seriously?? But my Selection, is a complete "stab in the dark" and just a bit of fun. It's so nice to be entering someone else's Competition, after all those I've "hosted", in the Lounge Forum. Lately, I've been suffering from C.F.S.!! (Competition Fatigue Syndrome). Snowray, any chance I could invite my Wife Colette, as a guest into the Competition? She's not a NW Member but has an uncanny habit of predicting future events, and being correct. So much so, I refer to her as "Septic Peg." Below, myself and "Septic", getting hitched. The Photo was taken outside Sidcup Registry Office. We're flanked by my younger Sister (who was Colette's School Friend), and my Brother-in-Law. I know it's been said before, that I look like her Father, giving her away. My excuse, I am 10 Years older, than Colette. If you squint you may be able to make out some very fine Snow Grains, falling. How cool is that? Snow on your Wedding Day and Nature's own Confetti, although Colette had enough in her hair. Poor thing was shivering, in her thin Wedding Dress and tiny shawl!! Regards, Tom.

Yes, the 2013 SSW occurred in early January and did actually have a rapid effect, leading to a fairly prolonged cold spell through mid January. However, the cold relented by the end of the month and was 'on and off' through February, but come March, strong northern blocking really did set in with a vengeance! April, May and June were all colder than average but a major flip took place at the beginning of July, which turned out to be a hot month, marking the end of a long run of below average months and the colder 2007-2013 period! We haven't really had a sustained cold period since.

Just for good measure - how about a full house of crapness completed by February and March.

The skies were clear here on the east side last night and Betelgeuse could be clearly seen but has dimmed, so much so that his 'belt' is now brighter than his left shoulder..

<yawns> aome sefkjwef dkjnd kdrgoo s41t I fell asleep looking out the window at endless grey krapness again <YAWN>

18z ensembles suite for South Yorkshire make of it what you will

Another grey day. Cloudy, occasional drizzle, no wind and feeling very mild. Thick fog now. Don't even have the fire on tonight. I'd just settle for some interesting weather. Doesn't even have to be cold! This came up on my Facebook memories from 2 years ago.

2013 brought decent snowfalls to parts of Scotland particularly in January and March. The higher parts of Dundee had similar depths to Nov/December 2010 in January 2013 and the snow was quite widespread. Here is Kenmore post office 7 years ago today. By late evening when thesnow died out that area had over 45cms.

ECM is rubbish - a weak powder puff northwesterly for a couple of days before it turns mild again. Seriously winter 19/20, just do one. We’ve all had enough now.