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Goodmorning peeps Hope everyone is ok and a happy Wednesday to you all. A gloomy morning in Walthamstow nothing that resembles like a mid winters day it actually does not feel drastically cold. So here we are it's 22nd January today and no doubt most of us coldies are exhausted now having eagerly waited since or before the start of winter for some decent cold and snow. The eerie silence in here tells the whole story and deep down we all know that our time for this season is getting closer and closer to saying goodbye to this winter. Alas it was not probably meant to be this year, as a lot of posters have already said a lot of outside factors have just made us very unlucky. We have still got February left but deep down I know a lot of you like me have got that feeling that the hope of seeing something decent and snowey is fading day by day. The days are already getting longer and soon the sun will be gaining more strength. There is no sign in the output to suggest we are going to get out of this misery pattern soon. Having said this patterns have changed quickly and suddenly and who knows something dramatic may happen as we enter the last half of winter, but we would I think now need a dramatic event to turn things around. i have actually blocked the rest of this winter out of my mind now, as life goes on and dwelling on something that was not meant to be will not change it. Maybe in another 8 months the factors for next winter will look more promising. Not to add more gloom but chins up peeps as I said who knows February may have a final sting but if not then there is always next winter to look forward to. Hope you all have a great day regards

Hi gang ,hang on to your STraws ,GEM shows a very angry day next mon /tues ,if this comes off IFF !we could see getting on for nearly a 100 mb difference in pressure on uk soil ,all within a week .will be interesting to see what ECM comes up with soon. Cheers , sausage baps all round .

It is striking how the jet cuts right into Russia. No sign of a Siberian high anywhere near to our east this year. Our only hope of anything wintry rests with transient north westerlies next week. The jet modeled to come further south as the high sinks into Europe. We should see more polar air in the mix as the Atlantic lows whip across to the north. That looks like the best on offer in the next 10 days by the looks of it. This pattern seems never ending and so frustrating for cold lovers as we pass through the heart of our so called Winter.

Yep, the strong coupled strat-trop PV is fending off high/++AAM and MT poleward momentum into the mid/high latitudes and any poleward amplification from the MJO wave the same - kept towards the tropics. With regards to the QBO, only easterly above 30 hPa over the tropics, whole lot of zonal westerlies north of that. Our winters tend to benefit most when we come out of the solar minimum, on average, so maybe the next few winters will fare better. I guess we have to hope that the strat-trop coupled PV becomes weakened and/or displaced towards NE Europe as we head through Feb, signs of that in GFS, to be the catalyst to a pattern change, but probably will be a slow process.

Favourable MJO, Off the scale Mountain Torques, impressive Low Solar Minimum, declining wQBO. The PV just laughs in there face.

I think this non-descript week may just help 2019/20 clinch the title of worst winter I've ever had the misfortune to experience, unless February pulls a miracle out of its backside.

ECM is rubbish - a weak powder puff northwesterly for a couple of days before it turns mild again. Seriously winter 19/20, just do one. We’ve all had enough now.

Yes, that does seem to be the direction of travel, here GFS 0z T384 position of the strat vortex: A definite movement away from Canada, at both the top and bottom of the strat. And re weakening, we are starting now to see the odd ensemble member with a reversal, which is important given the near record intensity of the strat vortex only a couple of days ago. 3 from GEM ensemble, anyway. Small steps at the moment, will they increase to give the UK some cold potential in February, we will just have to wait and see...

Haven't posted for a while but anyway back with updates. So the next few days look settled for most except the far north but there will be a lot of cloud around with limited sunshine the very strong high pressure responsible for this dry, quiet, foggy and frosty spell is slowly weakening and declining southwards with Atlantic weather systems beginning to push their weather fronts southwards across the country.. This transition takes place during the weekend with breezier weather for all with some rain mostly light in places but its next week that things look like turning very unsettled perhaps stormy once again.. Here's the jetstream forecast from the Gfs for Sunday and Monday.. A strong jetstream developing and an area of low pressure is shown to develop quite rapidly by most models as it approaches the uk on Monday bringing rain for all but some very strong winds across parts of the country.. There is disagreement in whether this tracks to the Northwest of Scotland or through central parts of England and this is important as with quite cold upper air temperatures there would be the risk of snow on the northern edge of this system that risk is most likely for Scotland and Northern Ireland but no point discussing any more detail as its a few days away here's a snapshot of the Gfs, Gem and Ecm on this.. GFS.. Wind gusts mph.. Ecm.. Keeps this system as more of a wave depression so not particularly deep until leaving the UK but a very tight pressure gradient bringing potentially damaging gusts of wind to England and Wales. Ecmwf wind gusts.. Gem.. The Gem shows this low intensifying very quickly with the central pressure dropping to a very intense 921 millibars almost certainly overdone and is furthest north with this. Although the Gfs does drop the pressure of this system later to just under 935 millibars but ofcourse central pressure to be determined nearer the time. The Gem also shows a secondary deep low but further south across England and Wales bringing a stormy midweek period. The Gfs less strong with the winds for Mondays system compared to the Gem and Ecm. The weather front also likely containing another sqaull line. For the rest of next week good agreement on wet and windy weather continuing although colder air from the Northwest may give some wintriness to showers in any quieter interludes, and with a jetstream forecast like this then secondary features bringing further heavy rain and very strong winds is quite likely. Wednesday.. Thursday.. Friday.. Here's the Gfs Gem and Ecm combined for upto day 10 the unsettled theme is maintained with significant cold unlikely but short colder interludes may give some snow for northern areas but mostly on hills. 28th.. 30th.. 1st February..

No comment on the pub run as it is pretty useless when showing snow/cold nirvana when everything else is not. No change this morning. Cold front at T132 on GFS hitting NW areas and by T190 left the SE coast. Not cold uppers, though above the average we have seen this January by a way. Another cold front follows shortly after, looking more potent for the North but likely to be modelled less cold with runs. Euro high building in from D13 with an Atlantic trough so till the end of FI mild and wet UK. All three models similar with the big picture in the UK sector by D10: Good consistency as we enter February. So we can expect the FI of GFS to have good groundings though the GEFS are showing little guidance out to D16 apart that zonal in one form or other apart from a noisy member or two. Certainy no forcing and if anything the tPV looks more organised than yesterday's 0z. A complete lack of any signal for strong mid-lat blocking let alone high-lat. The MJO is looking like the COD so no sign that will help in February with the lag factor: So the reality is with v.strong strat-trop coupling, any background factors will probably be overridden by this driver, though no sign of an active MJO cold wave for the rest of winter, so little hope of anything other than getting lucky with the ebb and flow of systems that may allow temporary paths to a colder burst(s).

Getting to the point now where I don’t want an SSW as it will be nearly March by the time we see the effects (if any). This is by far the worst winter I’ve experienced since 2004 when I began model watching. I can’t remember one occasion where the models have shown anything cold within the 10 day range. Most winters we get some eye candy, but nothing this year.

MJO takes another step towards Phase 8 today, but the models don't seem to want to know, particularly ECM, so I think it would be well worth while seeing how this pans out before writing off weeks more of winter. I'm not holding out much hope, to be honest, but the odd run (I can think of one from each of ECM, GFS and GEM) has had a ridge pushed up by a low over the US in eastern Canada, which is a possible solution in the mix, not favourite by a long way, but there nonetheless.

Nothing much in the GFS 00Z that suggests a cold, snowy late-winter might be on the way: T+384 hardly screams 'blizzards', does it?

Just for good measure - how about a full house of crapness completed by February and March.

I'm getting to the point where I'm losing my focus for searching for cold, I'm now convinced a cold snap will appear when everyone has lost interest!! The gem as us at +8 uppers in the South come day 10 under a ridge of high pressure to the South!! Great start to February that!!! One positive is the GFS in deep lala land has the main area of vortex separating from the Canadian side, and perhaps heading towards siberia! So perhaps we could start to see more interest come mid month! Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a major shake up as we move into March!!

Turn back the clock to early-mid Nov when peeps were getting excited by southerly tracking lows, and all 'we' ended up with was weeks of cold rain. Whilst the Winter-resident AH/mid-Atlantic High (take your pick on the name) stays relatively 'put', add in the Winter 19/20 2nd HP foe, namely the Ruskie High, and we'll just get a return to cold rain, being brought across Blighty, on system after system. Yuk! Bring on Fuerteventura in late March

Morning all... Todays snow cover is hardly changed. Sea Ice shows moderate increases overall, with the exception of SOO. and To add a little more detail to the 'Ozone' story, I posted this on the climate change thread, which should give us all pause for thought. It comes from the lead professor of the project - Interesting comments by Lorenzo Polvano the lead professor at Colombia University.... "The results highlight the importance of the Montreal Protocol, which has been signed by nearly 200 countries, say the authors. “Climate mitigation is in action as we speak because these substances are decreasing in the atmosphere, thanks to the Montreal Protocol,” said Lorenzo Polvani, lead author of the study and a professor in Columbia’s Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics. “In the coming decades, they will contribute less and less to global warming. It’s a good-news story.” My comments - He seems to be expecting (anticipating/predicting) a period of very reduced warming, if not a cooling ahead, particularly at the poles, provided that these HFC's are brought under control. It seems as though these compounds are easily detected with satellite monitoring, and unlike CO2, they can easily be pinpointed giving us an easy and quick method of stopping their production. About half a dozen companies across the world apparently are involved and at least one has already been stopped(the largest producer - in China!!).. With a 50% factor quoted for sea ice and a one third factor for temperatures, this paper should not be dismissed lightly. MIA

I'd happily take an SSW and roll the dice as I can't see anything else delivering the goods in this perpetual autumn

I tend to agree, SLEETY...but, with one proviso: it'll take a major upheaval to overturn the +NAO pattern we've 'enjoyed' for so long! An SSW could do that, I guess, but predicting those (and what they'll do) is fraught with even more uncertainty than the good ol' GFS?

Maybe this will help snow to arrive Aurora Storm has just been on about Betelgeuse ( A dimming red giant). If it happens to explode then we look as though we will have two suns during the day. Might take our minds off climate change for a few days. The latest thoughts "If it did occur, it would become the brightest supernova ever observed. In a matter of days, it would become as bright as the full moon, be visible during day time and be bright enough at night to cast shadows on Earth. Betelgeuse would then start a phase of final, rapid dimming and again reach its current brightness level after possibly three years. After six years, it would be too faint to see with the naked eye. This would forever alter the visual appearance of Orion and we might need to think of another object the remaining constellation might represent." I find this fascinating . It might happen in the next two weeks or in the next 100000years.

In Luxembourg this week with work and it's at least seasonal! -3c this morning, same again tonight and possibly -5c later this week. Today was beautiful. Blue sky, no breeze, chilly.

We get day after day of crap charts and mild muck then every now and then we get a couple of models that give us a few chinks of light to get us all interested again and then the very next day it’s all doom n gloom again as the mild damp crap all comes flying back in. surely at some point during February we will get a break and something to get us all interested again, tbh we only need a cold blast with a decent amount of snow and this really shocking autumn will be put to the back of the mind

@Norrance @General Cluster some of the Scotland / UK previous nacreous cloud sightings Rare nacreous clouds seen painting the skies across the UK WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK It is thought that recent storms may have increased the chances of the clouds forming over the UK, particularly in Scotland, by driving... https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/84961-nacreous-clouds/&ved=2ahUKEwj1rP366pfnAhVQQkEAHSnMDKkQFjAKegQIChAB&usg=AOvVaw3lliAVoE-jHNx2tUiBfMDP

I can only recall seeing nacreous clouds once in Scotland over NE Fife about 12 to 15 years ago. Took some photos but no idea where they are now. Today took a walk down by the river with a view of taking photos of the Sunset but camera died before I got to the view point. Managed one from the bird spotting area before that happened. Quite comfy walking down there in shorts despite this being supposedly the coldest part of the year.

I was buzzed by a bee whilst hanging out washing this morning so took a walk up the garden to look at the 4 hives. All four had bees coming and going, the 2 most exposed to the sun had a substantial amount outside. Not unusual even for Jan if its mild, but not great if it stays mild. Nice for them to get out for some exercise, but also means they will be using more energy and therefore getting through thier food stores quicker. Obviously there's nothing for them to forage on at this point. At the weekend we'll have to check the extra tubs of fondant we put on top of the hives.

the hope increases of the weakening end of Jan

Wintry for Scotland

Scotland had a very frosty November due to the southerly tracking lows with snowfall at times. If we are to return to a period of southerly tracking lows, there's a lot more cold to the north given the time of year.

Thought you might enter Lottie, as you were the first winner, of my S.E. Snow Depth Cup. If memory serves (which it doesn't very well, after a Stroke of 4 and a bit Years ago), SnowBob also won? Mind you, he was leaving "Brown Envelopes" for me, at Addington Village Tram Stop, which I would pick up on the way to my job, in Croydon. Can't believe he still won though, as the envelopes were empty. Didn't he dead-heat with you, Lottie? Snowray, do you realise what you've taken on? I had sheets of A4 paper, all over my Lounge floor. I had somewhere in the Region of 50 Entrants, split into 2 Regions. North Thames and South Thames, I believe. For the final couple of Years of the Competition, there was no Snow, and it got the reputation of "jinxing" our Snow chances. It was an awful lot of work and possibly one of the reasons, why my Brain literally "blew up", a few Years later. I had a long telephone conversation with S.E. Meteorologist Ian Currie at Lunchtime, and he didn't seem that enthusiastic about our Snow chances, for the last official Winter Month. I'd like to enter your Competition Snowray but think I'll wait until I've viewed the 00z Model runs Having spoken to the "Horse's Mouth", so to speak, we may well be in for a long wait!! In a short while, I will Post up more details of my conversation with Ian Currie. Regards, Tom.

We'll probably get a sleety northerly in April knowing our luck, followed by the 'if only it was winter' posts. We will see a cold winter soon I suspect but I don't think luck will be on our side this year. November was actually quite blocked as well but it's as if someone just flicked a switch come winter...

Its no different to last year from the Met though! First it was mid December, then pushed out to late December, then mid January, followed by mid to late January, and then a big early February! Then they got bored of issuing it and reverted back to the norm! I take my hat off to the ones who put there credentials on the line by making such a brave winter forecast of cold, especially being as the LRF were having non of it! My only concern would be this... The cold forecasts they issued... Was this a forecast of what they were really hoping for, rather than what was likely... Crewe cold is a big winter lover, but he was still brave enough to call it as he thought was most likely, rather than what he wanted to see. But credit to everyone who makes the call and obviously they put alot of work and effort into making these forecasts. It's probably obvious now that many did not take into account the IOD situation! Perhaps tamara had some idea on this when she made her early season call! It would certainly be good to hear her thoughts on this. Also I noticed catacol was much more subdued with regards to getting something really notable this winter than he was last year... Last year he was seriously disappointed by the way it turned out, but thus year he has been much more relaxed in his approach! So obviously he wasn't expecting to much to start with, but like he said recently, a bad winter is surely just around the corner now! Our just rewards will come.

Puttng new belts on the neep harvester at the front of a shed this morning..Had to take jersey off in the warm sunshine.Currently 12c

Beware the Ides of Smarch!

ECM clusters D12. Relentless SW flow. Only variations are gale/storm (cluster 1 an example of how a potent storm could affect even inland areas at any time in coming fortnight), wet/dry (highly likely to be wet at times - the more settled cluster is only at 14% of runs), and whether passing cold fronts have enough of a temporary NW draw in them to provide snow interest for high ground in the north and west. Flooding and trees down the most likely weather story as we enter February.

Quite so IDO. For our corner of the globe at least a strongly couple Strat)trop vortex trump's pretty every other background signal. The background signals and forcings seem to come into their own much more when when one or both are weaker or uncoupled. This year GLosea obviously saw a strong coupling taking place and had so far proved to be on the money. Whether we can get some weakening or uncoupling remains to be seen but seems unlikely.

Just as I feared. The high slipping away and the grey damp Atlantic air takes over - yuk! Thoroughly depressing after a couple of bright days with early frosts.

I'm surprised (well, not really) that you are so enthusiastic about this paper. The results are entirely derived from global climate model simulations from 1955 to 2005. If you accept the results from this study, does that mean you accept the output from climate models in general? That your bashing of climate models for years and years has come to an end?

2010 minimum was -22.3 deg not -24deg. No severe cold in the 70s? 1970 -21.1 Carnwath (Strathclyde), West Linton (Borders) 7 January 1971 -12.8 Braemar 4 January 1972 -18.5 Moorhouse (Cumbria) 31 January 1973 -21.2 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 15 February 1974 -10.2 Lagganlia (Highland) 14 February 1975 -11.4 Balmoral 8 February 1976 -16.2 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 5 December 1977 -18.7 Lagganlia (Highland) 17 January 1978 -22.0 Keith (Grampian) 20 February 1979 -24.6 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 13 January 4 years with sub -20 deg,there have only been 3 in the last 25 years!

A very convincing set of signals IMO. I can see nothing at all that might mitigate against mild southwesterlies continuing to dominate...? PS: I'm ignoring, for now, any talk of an SSW...

With lots of Columbian Smarching Powder? ?️

Yes smarch is fast approaching and it brings with it much smarchiness

The long evenings and BBQ's are just around the corner, thankfully. Uk winters are such a waste of time.

Even if t384 was showing raging blizzards it wouldn't make any difference would it at that time frame, its a waste of time it goes out that far,every 6 hours it changes.

Another set of absolutely dire 00z runs. No cold anywhere really on the 00z GFS ensembles, ECM is similar, as is GEM. No longer range signal for a return to any higher pressure either. Strap yourselves in for another round of what we've had all winter - nothing.

Was wondering when a GFS operational would bring back from the dead a northerly. 12z extended EPS mean indicates the postive height anomaly / HLB over Canada slowly migrating towards Greenland by day 15, while a negative H500 anomaly persists over Scandinavia. This perhaps highlights potential for northerlies and this movement of positive heights out of Canada appears to be the catalyst for the 18z GFS northerly in FI. However, troughing modelled over the mid-Atlantic towards Azores needs to do one, as per 18z, in order to do this.

Looking at the state of the strat in the longer range, you'd have to think that the AO will start to go negative as February progresses. Maybe some late season cold?

Core depths of winter right now, yet it feels like the start of the school summer holidays - how quiet it is in the forum.. it should be buzzing.. at this time of year when far more people tend to be stuck inside in the dark dreary january evenings.. a sign of how non-descript things are at present. One omni-present feature of recent winters, since at least 15/16 has been the N Pacific high, yet again it is there this winter, what is causing it.. the warm SST values in the region, is this tied in with the PDO.. all it seems to do is fire the jet, and cause low pressure to steam out of USA seaboard.. What factors will help prevent it from rearing itself again next winter? I think this feature combined with the IOD have dominated proceedings this winter, given how muted and ineffectual other factors seem to be.. I'm feeling a bit deflated today, kind of just want to get this 'winter' out of the way, and fast forward to April. Not feeling it this year at all. (I'll be positive again soon!)

It was lovely to have a proper wintry day with temperatures down to -3c and only 4.5c during lunchtime

Of 'extreme' interest to me is this just released report. It would seem as though my 'fixation' on the status of Ozone was correct after all!! I had realised that the dropping of the levels of Ozone was attributed to these fluorohydrocarbons With all the emphasis on the interactions between Ozone and these compounds, I had incorrectly assumed that someone had investigated the properties of these GHG compounds. It seems not… Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused by ozone-depleting WWW.NATURE.COM Arctic warming is attributed to GHGs and feedbacks, but the specific contribution of ozone-depleting substances (ODS)—also potent GHGs—has never been... and the total paper is here - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4 It would appear that these researchers are seeing nearly 50% of current warming is associated with these compounds in the Arctic... Does this explain why I have been monitoring the no longer decreasing trends in Arctic Sea Ice? MIA