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It very much appears that the +AO will indeed continue through the 1st half of Feb minimum. On that note i will be taking a break from posting until Spring/summer most likely, i haven't posted much anyway TBH as the majority of it would have been moaning and that is not fair on the mods of this excellent site, in fact , kudos to all my fellow cold weather enthusiasts who have kept their peckers up in the face of probably the worst winter in terms of cold for 30 years or more. Take care all and hopefully next winter will actually happen

The horror show for coldies continues. The NW snap has turned into a cooler blip and January looks like ending on a very unsettled and windy spell of weather. One things clear from the winter so far , any amplification shown in the models past day 6 needs to be viewed with a huge pinch of salt . We’ve seen this flattened out nearer the time. There’s good agreement on the overall pattern between the ECM and GFS at day ten. The only remotely interesting feature is the Canadian high which shows up on days 9 and 10. This could slow down the relentless train of low pressure and might deliver a glimmer of hope if we can push the jet a bit further south and east as the limpet Euro high is refusing to leave the scene quietly. We now look like being left with February to salvage this dismal excuse of a winter !

What an awful chart...-10C uppers are miles away and so are the +10s! Several days' windy 6C cack can go do one; I'd rather it be 13C than 6! PS: Best day on the farm since October----after an icy start, a day of wall-to-wall sunshine; 62F, in the polytunnel!

Not getting to excited but there could be a little wintry interest in places next week, especially W/NW areas. The GFS 6z highlights this potential, all be it in low resolution! But I've noticed weather online also calling colder spell with frequent snow showers in places.... Just one day would be a shock!! Get the prozac ready folks, we maybe seeing some dandruff in places next week... Not worth getting to excited about just yet though..... Ohhhh what the hell....

Was wondering when a GFS operational would bring back from the dead a northerly. 12z extended EPS mean indicates the postive height anomaly / HLB over Canada slowly migrating towards Greenland by day 15, while a negative H500 anomaly persists over Scandinavia. This perhaps highlights potential for northerlies and this movement of positive heights out of Canada appears to be the catalyst for the 18z GFS northerly in FI. However, troughing modelled over the mid-Atlantic towards Azores needs to do one, as per 18z, in order to do this.

At last something to give some hope ! I think the Canadian high is now going to have a lot of expectations placed on it , we really need this to verify as it will give a window of opportunity as it moves east . We could also do with losing the bulging troughing to the west , and as Nick F earlier mentioned the spoiler towards the Azores . The GFS clears that further to the sw , we don’t want that phasing with the troughing to the nw as the upstream flow amplifies. Anyway lets just hope that Canadian high is there in the morning . At least both the ECM and GFS have this and coldies in here really deserve a change of fortune . We await tomorrow’s runs !

Well at least we can put to bed the myth that longer range models are always pish. Correct call at 3 month lead time is not too bad at all. Of course, this only really applies to a +NAO set up as they are seemingly quite atrocious at dealing with anything outside of the climatological 'norm'

Also signs there could be a stonking displacement SSW as well - big reversal at 1mb. IN OTHER WORDS - BITTER SPRING ALERT!!

Looking at the state of the strat in the longer range, you'd have to think that the AO will start to go negative as February progresses. Maybe some late season cold?

BANK 10000% over

There is potential for the back end of Feb and into March as there looks a realistic probability of an esh esh double u.

Look at the state of that!

Not a very interesting spell of weather on the immediate horizon, a case of watching the current high ebb away slowly to the south, allowing the atlantic to make inroads once again by the weekend. A mild picture in the main, with cloud. Into next week, further unsettled weather from the west, with something colder from the NW for the north at least. Its these kind of synoptics that force me to switch off from model watching for a few days, might just do that..

I for one would settle for that and wouldn't care about spring being delayed!

Nasty storm if it verifies: More robust upper trough over the Azores so maybe better heights upstream on this run, at least for a while: May sustain a better colder flow. All subject to change as very fluid ATM.

Terrible ECM which takes us to the turn of the month. If we get to the positions shown then it's at least 10 days from there before there could be any favourable shift from the pattern

The PV has had it on this run .

New seasons for the UK: Spriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing Smr Autuuuuuuuuuuuuuumn

Looking very windy next week with gales at times, a very active, vigorous, mobile, average pattern through the heart of winter by the look of it. Is that uncle Barty beginning to make his presence felt? or will the trop vortex slip over Scandinavia/Siberia and threaten us with a colder Northwesterly?

I can confirm that this applies two or three years younger than that. But the one advantage of advancing years, particularly in here, is that your bu*****t antennan gets honed to such perfection as to pick up the slightest nuance

this morning ideas to the strato - well it is something to watch and it maybe comes to a pattern change late Feb/Mar to now a canadianwarming shows up - i think some nice ideas can show up soon

Signs on the gefs spread that two weeks time may see a more favourable tpv shape wrt to a northerly flow of sorts .....been there before .........

It's not just cloudy the front is bringing heavy rain. But all academic

As noted by others the GFS 18z is a lovely run and along the lines of my thoughts which I posted a while back about cooler / colder from the NW / N then attempts at higher pressure toward Greenland fitting in with MJO phases 6/7 though phase 7 weaker than originally thought. Obviously some caveats being that we have seen quite a few times the 18z runs tending to be quite a bit colder than the others and with the coupled strat and IOD those haven't helped either but with a weakening of IOD and a PV displacement likely fingers crossed that we will have a chance at something more akin to winter. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show.

Ridge sharpening, here comes another go.

Indeed, it's trying for a Greenland high, similar to the ECM.

I know it’s the pub run but

Afternoon all As we await the all-important ECM 12Z run, I'm left with the impression the mostly benign start to February is being replaced by a more mobile and unsettled Atlantic profile. The 12Z OP 10 HPA strat chart continues to intrigue in FI but we'll see if that takes us anywhere in terms of a sting in the tail wintry spell for late February or early March.

True, but will down grade nearer the time as short wave features appear at the base of the trough which will mix out the colder air.

Wonder how many more weeks before a massive pattern change takes place and the majority of Europe goes bitterly cold.I have seen it before with minus 30 at the end of March in Sweden etc and sub-Zero in Mid March even here on the coast.I expect huge payback from this mildness over Europe. That’s whats keeping my interest in the models and how long before they pick up on the change. Its certainly been a tedious winter though chasing non existent cold for months.

Masie today. .. Announced it reached a headline of 14.000K Km2 today. Last 3 days recorded a well above average increase total of 222K Km2 (+53K, +131K and +38K). This is the 7th earliest in the last 16 years it has reached the 14K barrier. 2019,2018,2017,2012,2007.2006 all failed to reach by this date. More interestingly it is now within 150K Km2 of 6 other years, with only 2011 and 2009 out of reach. JAXA extent is now already showing in 11th place!!. The regions are progressing as expected in the last 3 days, with Barents(-20K) and Greenland(-19K) being the only real losers and Baffin(+73K) and SOO(+85K) increasing very rapidly. Bering has now turned the corner and is increasing again with (+55K). As mentioned recently and suggested by others on here the Arctic Ocean is expected to cool down from about +2.0C to -1.0C over the next 3 days, with the outer sea areas of Barents, Baffin and Bering turning very cold. A very positive outlook for sea ice appears more than possible. For information the next 'target' is 15.000K Km2 which was last achieved in 2016 (and 7 other years in the Masie record), and is normally reached around the 3 - 4th week of February. MIA

Horrific. For the 1st time since 2004 when i joined TWO i am not even bothering to look at WZ in mid Jan. Have a look at the chart i just posted in the moan thread. Coldies, we have major problems!!

Bright blue skies here today and feeling very mild at 10.4C from a peak of 11C

Hurray, that's the self-assessment tax return in, now to get back to the real world Another cracking day though not as sunny as yesterday. Not that this has made a difference to the temperature as its milder today, currently 11c with light winds. Plenty of bird song at the moment, looks like they are pairing up and looking for nesting sites already, another consequence of this strange winter.

"Harsh" frost across the south last night - between 0 and -4.. You have to laugh! What a pathetic winter so far.

Yes, me too. You know its bad when there isn't even a sniff of virtual snow. I suspect this horrendous PV sat like a limpet to our NW for over 3 months will vacate to Siberia come March/April. Even the Turks who usually benefit from a +NAO pattern are mild, Istanbul looking at temps of 14 by wed/thur. Further north into Poland is mild, temps of 5,6 and 7 in warsaw this week. History books will say 2019/20 will be the year when Europe skipped winter, i suspect you have to back to 1988/89 when this last happened. I really really hope we get a decent summer to compensate but i fear an abundance of Northern blocking ..

Those many D10 ECM runs promising something brief but cold for the North, another fail. The mini-wave, now barely a ripple: ECM> GFS> GEM> The upper air is moderated accordingly.The GFS remains more potent with a 48h cold flow of uppers, pretty standard winter fayre even in crap winters but worthy of a mention this season. The GEM is now blowing up that low so washes out the uppers (as per previous GFS run), so maybe ignore this GEM run. The GEFS post-D10 mainly zonal with the jet running through the UK, in fact the op is one of the better runs which is sad in itself. The mean: Still no sign of forcing, MJO or whatever. The tPV looks like it is winding down, so as we go through February chances improving with even moderate forcing for that bottled cold to flush south somewhere in the NH: D4> D16> ^^^Very similar design viz pattern, but maybe less strength; straw clutching it may indeed be!

Hi gang ,thats the big question every time with day 10 charts , yes south could be Balmy or take it all further south and it could be game on for some wintry ness. So again today we have no real Boom ,but could all change tonight at 7pm ish ,but the hunt is still on ,possibility of a cold trough setting up to our east in time for February, low 850 s and and warm sea temp some beefy snow showers PERhaps ,cheers .

It could very well be but i would take it after the crap winter that we have had so far march can deliver ie:- 2013,2018 and i would have probably missed a few,my memory isn't that clever but i remember those two. still,we have Feb to go so lets see what happens.

I had a nice morning walk around Loch Lomond even though it was dull and overcast.

Halkirk reporting. Mostly cloudy today, although clearing somewhat towards dusk, and a max of 7.5C and little wind.

Plenty of snow/sleet showers around particularly in the north and Wales, the colder spell extended, blizzards in the Scottish Ski resorts, proper dumping up there.

Pretty cloudless here and 10C seems to be the popular temperature as it was that here too on the drive home between Inverurie and Alford just now. Still looking like a change to a NWerly blast next week, but nothing particularly exciting to my eyes.

Decent barring the recent storms! Snow blankets Spain's east coast and waves smash stores along Costa Blanca beaches | Daily Mail Online WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK Flights to London, Newcastle and other major UK cities were cancelled as Storm Gloria slammed into the Spanish coastline. In Denia, Alicante, the sea was filmed rushing into the town and surrounding cars Look at all the snow though. I know it's at elevation, but we've not seen anything like that here all winter, even over higher ground. Sums it up really. Nothing especially cold showing on the D10 ECM ensembles either: Seeya later January.

Day 10.. Zero prospect of cold if we land at this chart, probably first half of Feb,minimum. Very nice in the Canaries /south Spain , i would imagine it has been lovely for anyone taking a Winter break there this time round.

Good growthy morning,warm drizzle at 10c and no wind.

That's some cold front on the day 7 ECM by the way. Would be some nasty weather along the squall line.

The gfs 18z was a mild outlier,in fact this set looks colder than the 12z after the initial cold snap around the 28th/29th also i have noticed that there is a secondary warming towards the end of the gfs op/control,the pv is getting knocked around a bit esp the control.

Nice sunny morning in Caithness (apart from the wrong temperature, 10C) then a brisk wind picked up and spoiled the afternoon. Somewhat cloudier later too but without yesterday's pyrotechnics. Rate we're going, I might have wasted my money on another set of Weatherproofs - I could have gone straight to summer tyres. That might be a plan actually: if we all dress and behave for summer weather, it might encourage winter out of its shell.