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Morning all Lovely ECM run for Scotland this morning - snowfall now showing up from 144 hours...baby steps! 144 hours 168 hours 192 hours 216 hours 240 hours Hopefully it all becomes reality - cold last few frames for the rest of the UK and some snow showers about also. Latest GFS run for all the above timeframes are in agreement for Scotland - yet to see any lowland snow here for my location. (Above 300 meters has done well) One thing I have enjoyed about this Winter is the sunsets - glorious stuff last night. Have a good day everyone!

Personally I think we concentrate far to much on background signals most of which are a fad in my opinion. The list is endless, MJO, AO, NAO, SSTs, Moutain Torque, El Nino to name but a few and most of these have appeared in the last 10 years, did all these things really line up perfectly in 1963 or 1979 for 3 solid months? Back then we just had the BDC, bloody damn cold! Andy

? I'll have some of what you're on. I'm sure you are walking in a virtual winter wonderland.

The UKMO is likely to evolve very close to the ICON/DWD. Area to note is how they handle the shortwave energy in the Atlantic . The one nw of the Azores helps to support the ridge coming out of Canada . That’s left behind after the split . The GFS takes longer to separate that energy . If you compare the earlier 06 hrs run , you’ll see it takes all that shortwave energy east no split . This then helps to blow up the low to the north and you then have no support for the Canadian ridge . The GFS 12 hrs run makes a change , you’ll see it leaves some shortwave energy behind and that’s a big part of its better run upto day ten . We’d need to gain more amplitude though to carve a stronger ridge north . Then perhaps we could get that to topple towards Scandi , so a chance to extend any cold weather .

Not sure that's justified, he has posted charts backing up his thoughts and analysis of a possible outcome. Glad someone is to be fair, the 'it's a day 10 chart' line is growing tiresome...

From one end of the uk to the other. hope ecm plays out as suggested, then at least we will be able to go on the regionals and see some snow pics

Fantastic winter light this weekend! Had a great walk in the Luss Hills on Saturday - not quite the deepest snow I've ever seen but I don't really mind as you can't argue with scenery like this.

Afternoon all, Amazing scenes from St John’s. I’ve visited there, it’s a great town with friendly people. They are very used to big snowstorms of course (averaging 335cm of snowfall per year!) but that one really took the biscuit. Back home had a great walk on Ben Ledi on Saturday. Snow cover was thin but the views were tremendous!

And as just posted in the North American thread. A Canadian finally panics after the mega snowfall!

Nonsence! Wheres the evidence for that? This winter has just seen a more normal weather pattern across the northern hemisphere where the jet stream is fairly flat, the PV over the pole and Greenland is very strong and the mid latitudes lacking cold air. The Azores high is always there, sometimes it does move but the normal common pattern is for higher pressure to be to our south. Sick of hearing climate change is responsible for this that and the other, its the temperatures that are going up and certain set ups these days will be marginally warmer than they were 30 to 50 years ago. Looks like the Atlantic will be coming into play again after this dry spell, no real wintriness on the horizon either and time is starting to run out. Hopefully we will get one cold snowy spell before the winter is out, at least as a consolation prize for what we been through so far.

Everyone has beat me to it with the weird cloud scenes today! It was quite mesmerising, I took a picture from the car, was travelling to and from Ringwood in the New Forest so had lots of opportunities to see it from different angles! I wish I’d stopped along the seafront to take a pic, the sun was setting behind the cloud formation and it was a beautiful red/pink, with the dark silhouette of Beachy Head. Anyone with a decent camera would have nailed a super duper snap! Anyway this is my poor effort, bear in mind I was in the car travelling at speed!

IMO, both the 'factors' and the teleconnections are valid, they're simply not properly understood: one reason, for their apparent failure, would be that new 'factors' are being discovered all the time; another 'problem' would be that, as the planet warms, long-dormant oscillations might (I would err on the side of 'almost certainly will') start up again...? There's an awful lot of complexity in science that new measuring-techniques are yet to unravel?

Not quite St. John's

I had a nice morning walk around Loch Lomond even though it was dull and overcast.

This is model related, just a different one we’re used to. Could this contribute to a slow down in the jet stream that we all Crave? Climate Prediction Center’s February Through April Outlook WWW.WEATHERNATIONTV.COM Last week, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their outlook covering February, March, and April. Warmer than normal temperature are forecast from the Easte

Not a bad ICON/DWD with a ridge to the west , followed by the UKMO which is an improvement on the 00hrs run. The shortwave energy splits , you can see that weak one west of Ireland and the other one much further upstream . The GFS takes longer to split that energy but still has improved from this morning with a bit more amplitude upstream .

Maybe the "myriad of factors" and the now infamous background signals, have scientific flaws, and are no longer to be taken as genuine. Just maybe.

And this one does have a Scottish connection. Taken by a lass who moved there from Dundee.

Absolutely this post. There now seems to be a myriad of factors in order for it to get cold, one spoke in the wheel and we are done for it seems.

Morning peeps. I can't say as I'm convinced by any major pattern-change, going forward...Yes, there could well be some transient wintriness (great for the Scottish ski industry) but, overall, all a bit of a muchness...? One thing that caught my eye, however (and what might be of interest to our sylvian friends?️) is that +10C T850s almost reach the SE at T+330! Goes off to contemplate the ramifications of the upcoming, fabled SSW!

seriously? ?? it's backed by plenty of data. .and a highly likely /evolutionary trait! !.. so what's your point! !???? edit; I wish some would actually back there posts with some data/synoptics. ..more in depth knowledge /basis! !!

In pictures: Clouds create perfect conditions for stunning sunset - BBC News WWW.BBC.CO.UK High cloud and exceptionally clear air created the perfect conditions for an incredible sunset on Sunday.

Remember the days when Mountain Torques were the go to thing for cold and snow, now it's just another pretty useless teleconnection when the PV simply overwhelms anything thrown at it.

It could very well be but i would take it after the crap winter that we have had so far march can deliver ie:- 2013,2018 and i would have probably missed a few,my memory isn't that clever but i remember those two. still,we have Feb to go so lets see what happens.

Glenshee was epic that winter. So much snow the tows were almost buried.

A bunch of posts moved over to the moans/banter/chat thread. It's getting confusing with such an influx of those posts. They aren't really a discussion of what the current models are showing. We do have threads for discussing 'background signals' etc but It might be a better idea if someone started a thread dedicated to certain questions about it. Cheers.

Bit of an apology for the other day for my best mates suicide,shouldn't have posted even if it was a perspective post.Anyway I've actually looked threw loads of analogues and I'm going for a negative Nao towards the north west in march .barring the odd toppler etc I can't see any ridging or heighths to the NNW.ec looks ok with altitude but the the 12z GFS still has the the PV to the nw dominating .cheers

Indeed, weather warning......haha, have they go nothing better to think about, what a pile of tosh!

No blown up low (N of Scotland) as per the 06z so no warming out of the uppers and a more sustained colder flow: 06z12zuppers> So rain from the cold front for most but wintry showers following.

12z has the colder uppers again which coincides with a less deep low over Scandi. 12z Vs 06z (for the above)

You obviously don't visit the model thread much if you think that many love this kind of weather! What a depressing thought... 9 months of Autumn, followed by a 3 month summer window! What's wrong with good old seasons.... Cold snaps and snow come winter, and decent warm spells come summer! To hope for a continuation of a warming trend in the hope it helps keep the heating bills down and a walk is more enjoyable, I find bizarre.. The prolonged effect of this warming trend will slowly but surely cause all kinds of mayhem around the globe in the future, and tbh the effects are already being felt in many continents!! Go and ask an aussie if they are happy with the ever warming climate, I no what answer you will get, not to mention the folks who are constantly flooded out!! The planet needs to be cooled ASAP.

Indeed John, theres nothing in those charts that suggests anything other then a pretty ordinary winter mix, unsettled, very mobile, milder spells and colder blasts. Its looking fairly unlikely now that we will get a trop lead cold spell imho, the MJO is expected to weaken in its orbit, theres no sign of any northern blocking - yet, all possible signals have failed to produce a pattern change and even this long waited for settled spell courtesy of high pressure is expected to fizzle out and not ridge northwards. Will the Strat produce a late cold spell?... well there are signs again that there might be a SSW into mid Feb, but currently its not a strong signal imho (and from a very much a novices pov).

The GFS out to D16 repeating zonal mini-ridge synoptic so cold NW'ly turning Westerly possible, but at this range those uppers only cursory: op> mean> However, compared to the mean^^^ the op at the best end of the spectrum for cold for the favoured. GEM gives us that brief NW'ly from D8-10 but already toning down the T850's and we know GFS overdoes those, so any snow looking like hills and mountains to the NW & W. ECM maintains the run from last night in terms of synoptic, the delay of the low off the eastern seaboard, D10 on ECM but still D8 on the GEM and GFS! A colder version of that twist from ECM this morning and should be trusted as much as a yesterday's 12z till the other models jump to it. The mean has moved towards the GFS though still not there, probably interfered with by the smaller cluster supporting the op? Best to ignore ECM after D7 ATM. FI remains poor, now up to Feb 5, a short month as it is, and little sign, apart from noise, of any MJO forcing or any HLB'ing. The tPV remains the driver as it ebbs and flows to our north.

Just poked my head out of the Front Door, and the Frost isn't as thick as I thought it would be. If I hear, on my travels Today, anybody moan about the "Cold", I'll "crush a grape" in Sainsburys!! Just taken a few "Screengrabs" , from Laura Tobins' Forecast, on GMB. Fancy this arriving on your Doorstep?: Not only raging Bush Fires but also the worst Dust Storm they've ever seen, in New South wales. Swiftly followed by violent T/Storms with Golf Ball sized Hail: But I'm sure some of you would say "yeah", bring it on!! This is where all our Snow is!! This was the scene in Newfoundland Yesterday. A state of Emergency was declared, with up to 76 cms of Snow, recorded: So, it could be a lot worse and some colder Weather with a bit of Frost and Fog around, really isn't the end of the world!! Regards, Tom.

Next weekend and beyond MILDER , There you go from the horses mouth, don't get stuck on charts that never deliver but fail

Our monster high looks to have broken the England Wales January record, set in 1882. Guess how the remainder of that winter end up? The high retrogressed and we had two months of lying snow Actually, no, it was awful. Southerlies prevailed and that was it for that particular winter. Even back then, when apparently it was wall to wall snow, year in year out... Anyway, hopefully the 2nd half of this winter won’t end up quite as bad as that one 138 years ago!

Pretty good ukmo run, some colder air arriving at the end.

Wowzer!! I hadn't realized we were in a cold spell . A bit of frost and fog used to be 'normal' for January. How times change!

Oh you said stop, sorry

Noticed a massive flock of geese in the vale of Alford around 0930. I've lived here since 2004 and have never seen geese in these numbers before - a genuine WTF moment! Given the bright conditions and distance between the geese and myself, a rough estimate of numbers could be made. I reckon well over a thousand and that's a conservative figure. The geese were circling over an area as opposed to following their usual flight paths - unusual behaviour. Possibly an early departure from their wintering grounds? Definitely a sight to behold. Currently 9.5C and wall to wall sunshine.

Was looking over on TWO and it's now 24 years since the last mid winter easterly. As my username indicates, I'm 66 years old and in the first 36 years of my life there was probably only one winter like this one. In the last 30 years there have been about 10.

From a snow point of view, there looks like may be a tiny window for most areas around D9/D10 for something transient from the NW (a longer window in the N, of course). The D11-D15 looks like a complete blank for cold, whether unsettled or more settled, and the indication is that the days after D15 will be likewise. Still, most significant cold in recent years has come in March, so still time ahead.

On that mountain torque chart you really need the East asian mountain torque line (red) to be off the scale - that would then trigger an almost certain strong SSW.

Do the ECM clusters offer any hope going forward? Let's take a look.... D7 - deep trough just to the W/NW of the UK: D9/10 - Trough swings through D11 onwards - High pressure starts to build as we go into Feb? Usual caveats apply when ticking over to a new month with these clusters as they are pressure vs mean monthly pressure, but we will see. Main cluster shows your typical NW/SE split, whereas the second cluster goes for a bigger push from the high keeping more of the UK settled. One to watch, hopefully the really unsettled spell incoming doesn't last too long.

Just a rubbish outlook sadly. A few days ago there were a decent number of AO forecasts trending negative....these have all been flushed out as low pressure remains strong over the polar regions. It's not looking good whatever way you try and spin it. We may squeak a little bit of cold/wintriness from some PM NW air, but this will be short lived and insubstantial for most at low levels.

looks like it’s not just us suffering a mild winter so far, saw this on an American FB site! is the Pacific affecting our weather as a knock on effect? Well the pattern doesn't look good for us Winter lovers after this cold snap. Recall a few days ago I was watching everything we meteorologists look at going out into the future, and all guidance and teleconnections looked like a major pattern change was coming and would stay. Thats no longer the case. Instead, Alaska and Greenland remain cold as the main heart of Arctic cold stays locked up, after our brief bout of cold next few days. Thats not good for us in the Southeast, nor really anyplace in the middle to eastern seaboard for getting and keeping cold air around. The Pacific jet is loaded with waves that keep in pushing across the country, and not allowing enough time or wavelength distance to alter the flow toward a strong Winter like pattern yet. Every few days we have another rain making storm cut inland, and possibly behind it we cool off some, before we have the next inland cutting storm, and you guessed it--more rain. Its a guessing game as to when we really fundamentally shift the pattern, but it's no time really soon I'm afraid for those of us wanting a Winter storm to track. As always though next couple of weeks, with atleast marginal cold air following some storms, we'll have to monitor any small scale systems that may drag down "just enough" marginally cold air to work with somewhere, but right now, just not impressed with the pattern for most of us for the remainder of the month. Here's a big picture look of the overall flow pattern out through day 10.

feel like free to scroll through all available data. .its a high format probability! !.. via many supports! ! to which some myself have already posted! !!(some) this isn't 1 operational model going off on 1. ...

Is the point to be made that the 10 day charts seldom make it into the reliable? Especially if they're showing what people want to see? In which case they would be numerous to mention in all fairness!!!!!!!

I was driving into this earlier. Shots taken by my neighbour Sarah: