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PM icon at 126 builds more pressure over the top of the low which will steer it even further East before phasing > should see some good cold on this run-

Incredible sunset tonight - definitely in my all time top 3 favourites. Beautiful Scotland. ???????

Our monster high looks to have broken the England Wales January record, set in 1882. Guess how the remainder of that winter end up? The high retrogressed and we had two months of lying snow Actually, no, it was awful. Southerlies prevailed and that was it for that particular winter. Even back then, when apparently it was wall to wall snow, year in year out... Anyway, hopefully the 2nd half of this winter won’t end up quite as bad as that one 138 years ago!

Logging on to this thread, tomorrow morning, could well be interesting...20 pages of 'BOOM!' or 1 page of 'winter is over' posts? Take your pick and place your bets!

I was driving into this earlier. Shots taken by my neighbour Sarah:

A bright frosty start to the day here at -2C but like elsewhere it has clouded over now. Currently 4.2C. Here is the cone of Schiehallion as seen from the West covered in snow. Also attached the Lawers range from the South West and finally a selfie from Iain Cameron from Britain's snowiest place, the Garbh Coire Mor of Braeriach. Well filled with snow despite the mild winter due to the strong Westerly winds at times.

Morning - ICON 06z slithers over to the UKMO solution at 120 removing the early phasing - All leading to a higher chance of cold 168-> onwards > Thats about the best of it ATM

Would err on the side of caution with the GFS, it often has a cold bias in the medium range with depth of cold in polar maritme flows when they reach the UK, most of the time the flow ends up not as cold as progged, partly because it pushes the jet too far south and perhaps doesn't pick up secondary waves until nearer the time, which ultimately hold back the colder Pm flow or dilute it with less cold air. That's not to say it won't get as cold as the 12z op is showing, but it's worth not getting too excited at this range for snow, away from favoured northern hills.

Crazy cloud day!! Slightly adjusted for contrast but not far off reality Stunning sunset a bit ago with what looked like orange mammatus - unfortunately I was in someone else's car as a passenger and they didn't stop...

Stunning sunset @Mr Frost I was sitting in my car waiting on picking up the wife from Sainsbury's. I wish I could have gone somewhere better to get some nice pictures. Just like you said, the sunset was incredible.

Morning > Good UKMO 144 similar to the ECM which doesnt phase any of the deep Canadian PV with the low moving up NE off the east coast - as a result the deep cold sweeps ESE across the atlantic & the East coast low is held in situ because high pressure builds over it- All the mild GFS runs yesterday rushed that east coast low up & out into the atlantic phasing it with the Canadian energy which was then forcing High pressure & south westerlies ahead of it ( like the awful GEM 12z ) The theme of cold looks to be more apparent on 00z UKMO than that phasing theme from GFS / GEM 00z GFS still phasing the energy at 150 will be milder than UKMO -

Just before the last run of the day. Some really beautiful photaes posted on the thread. What a sunset I missed. I hope might get some points for snow content at least!

Pretty uninspiring outputs which have moved from dismal to just mediocre . The ECM is reluctant to drive the pattern se and the depth of cold even allowing for the source looks like a lot of cool rain and some snow to higher elevations . Admittedly tonight’s outputs are an improvement on the last few days but really that’s not saying much .

Another pic of the cracking sunset tonight, looking west from above Lairg

a sight to behold @1049 hpa. . a rarity in its own right!!!

That famous ‘south’ of the M4 snow Line !! This would help with some of those snow starved this year!!

Lovely cold sunny weekend. Twenty first air frost at - 2.1°C. The tiniest smattering of snow amongst the frost out yesterday. Zoom in:

There’s absolutely no point in looking at uppers or temperatures etc at this range, let’s just get a nw flow into the country for a start and see where we go from there. It’s absolutely Baltic to the nw at the mo so could well be fun and games if we actually get to this point

Would add that that sunset was memorable, only caught it from the glamourous vista of Inverness asda car park and up the hill on the way home when it wasn’t as great Yes HC, definite hints of mammatus, someone posted this on Twitter from the town

It did look hopeful for a time that the MJO would go through 7 and get to phase 8 at decent amplitude, phases that at good enough amplitude can lead to northern/high lat blocking and -NAO further down the line, given the lag of 10-12 days. However, it looks like we are getting the response of the wave through phase 6 leading to blocking high pressure over the UK/Europe (MLB) but the response from the move into phase 7 is looking rather muted in recent model output. One explanation, that I read by Isotherm a US weather expert on another forum, is that the wave of strongest convection over the Pacific is tending to be along the equator and the southern hemisphere tropics of the Pacific - so this is having less impact on the upper flow of the northern hemisphere than was hoped. Given the background state of the strong TPV since mid-December, what little amplification is being made from the convection in the colder phases is having a very muted effect. Couple this with convection firing over the Maritime continent (warm phases) and the ongoing effects if the Indian Ocean Dipole - it appears the MJO does not want hang around or get into colder phases at decent amplitude this winter. But prefers to spend longer in warmer phases. With regards to hoping the eQBO will help us out, again, not as clear cut, yes the QBO is easterly high up in the stratosphere, but it still has yet to descend lower down into the lower stratosphere and certainly far from denting the strong zonal winds at high latitudes - though signs it will do this through February, so may help weaken the PV with time and perhaps allow northern blocking as we end winter. The models still forecasting a decrease in 10 hPa zonal winds in the stratosphere, but its dropping from a very high spike and so forecast, so far, only get to the climatology average - given zonal winds tend to drop anyway on average as we go towards March. So where does that leave us? Nothing showing from the main drivers to change the pattern for a few weeks, though worth keeping an eye on the blocking centred over central Canada perhaps extending its influence towards NW Atlantic and even western Greenland - this *could* be enough to orientate an increasingly cyclonic NW to SE flow across NW Europe as we end January..

Morning all, Up early again, to have Breakfast with my Wife. Was a bit annoyed with Colette last Night, when she informed me that she'd been talked into working a 3rd 12 Hour shift, in a row. Especially after all the Care Home Staff were given a very generous Christmas Box of, wait for it...………….a £5 Amazon Gift Voucher (didn't realise they came in such low values) What an insult! The Care Home Manageress was so embarrassed and disgusted with this that she gave all the 30+ Staff , £5 in their Christmas pay packet, out of her own money. Shame on you Bupa!! I hardly had the heart to remind Colette that during the last few Years of my time for working for a Credit Bookmaker in Croydon, between 2010 and 2014, all the Staff (inc. my Daughter, who worked for us as well), if Results and our resultant Profits had been good, we received, 10% of our Gross Annual Salary (excluding O/Time). We had to pay Tax and N.I. on this but it still was a very tidy sum and very welcome, at Christmas time. Colette seemed delighted that Todays' O/Time Rate, would mean an Hourly sum, of just over £11. Again reminded her, that 10 Years ago, I was earning £16 an hour on Sundays for taking a few bets on the Phone. It's a very sad indictment of how little importance we attach to those who work in the Care Sector, in this Country. It truly is a National disgrace!! My Wifes' role as a Senior, entails giving the Residents their medication (gets that wrong and she could kill them). Liaising with G.Ps and Hospitals, to decide whether or not a Resident needs specialist medical attention. Writing up Care Plans and the reordering of Drugs and being responsible for a potentially very dangerous, Drugs Cabinet. Also showing prospective new Residents and their Relatives, around the Care Home. All that responsibility for a flat Rate of a little over £9.50 an Hour. Pfft!! Waved goodbye to Colette at the Front Door at 6.20 and that white substance has descended during the Night again (more noticeable than yesterday Morning). More Weather thoughts, in a short while. Having worked in S.E.London and Croydon for the majority of my Adult life, the sight of a smattering of a white substance on the ground at the Weekend, wasn't an uncommon sight. Nothing to do with Yours Truly, I might add. Would like to thank Katrine, for her kind words above. Can't think, I've eaten Italian for Breakfast though? On the subject of Shop closures, one of that parade of Shops that still remains is Minns the Hardware Store. As I stated yesterday, both myself and my Wife spent our childhood and our teenage Years, in the Burnt Ash Lane area. When it snowed, I eagerly offered to go to that Store to buy a gallon of Esso Blue Paraffin, for Half a Crown or, 2 shillings and sixpence (12 and a half pence, in new money!!). I can vividly remember, experiencing one of the only "True White Christmases", I can remember, that of 1970. Didn't realise at the time but I was experiencing a "Thames Streamer", in all its glory. Heavy Snow Showers were accompanied by a huge crack of thunder, during the early hours, of Christmas Morning. I can remember listening to the Shipping Forecast at 12.30 AM - THAMES - Heavy Snow Showers, prolonged at times. Aah, music to my ears. I was 14 Years old and it was at this time, that I would retune Mums Radio to Radio 4, to listen to the Shipping Forecast. One Day, Mum came out with the classic line: "Whya youa wanna listena toa thata s...a, whena wea dona evena hava a shipa herea ina Bromleya!! (When speaking English, Mum would always add a non existant "a", on the end of every word). But always delivered in her lilting and beautiful, Italian accent. She had myself and my two Sisters in fits of laughter at her poor pronunciation and incorrect intonation, of syllables. We called her, the Italian Hilda Baker!! My poor Italian Mother, must have found it hard to acclimatise to the colder and gloomier Weather on "offer" in England, compared to her Southern Italian Homeland. She also had to endure some horrendous taunts from the Women in the area (Downham Estate). For the first few Years of their Marriage, they lived with my Grandmother, in Downham. Mum was spat at and told to, "go home you Wop" and stop snatching our Men. In truth, Dad had stolen his Wife, from her Southern Italian homeland. Mum and Dad at their Wedding in April 1947. Dad stayed on at the end of the 2nd World War, to marry his Italian Fiancee (Mum was 23 and Dad 25). They spent a Day of their Honeymoon on the Private Beach (along with a couple of other British Soldiers and their Italian brides), of English Singer, Gracie Fields (who was also married to an Italian), at her Villa, on the beautiful Isle of Capri. Mum in her prime at 21, at the end of the 2nd World War. Think those Downham women were suffering from "Green-eyed Monster" Syndrome!! Anyway, enough of my Family History ramblings and back to the Weather!! So "Downside" Darren Betts' intense High Pressure has arrived and looks like sticking around for a few Days, to give us a few Frosty Nights and a more Seasonal feel. Some Faux cold (under an inversion High) and "Virtual" Snow (well Frosty white anyway), on the Menu. I'm not sure, I share our own Steve Murrs' optimism, expressed on the Model Thread, 4 Hours ago. I freely admit, Steve is much More technically gifted than myself but IMO and to my untrained eye, the Azores High doesn't want to retreat and even looks to move East and take up a "Bartlett" type, position. Heaven forbid!! With a reinvigorated Jet Stream, raging away to our North. Can't believe that MeteoGroup, via Stav Danaos, think that 7c/8c is around average for our Region , at this time of the Year. Crikey, has the CET mean, changed that Much since the 1960s/1970s? Need to go and escape this depressing Winter and spend some time, on my Competition Thread. Hope you all have an enjoyable Sunday. At least it will be dry and a little on the cold side (evidently). Regards, Tom.

Yep - over done as usual....now just a brief skip through 7 at decreasing amplitude before back into the COD again. I’m done with this ‘winter’.

Evening All! As long as the predicted high pressure over southern and south eastern Europe continues its Tiddly Pip for real winter weather. It needs a complete change in synoptics . This Winter has been dominated by this weather, and shows no signs of change at the moment. February can often deliver The coldest of British Winter weather, often happens in February and one can hope that high pressure develops to the North of the UK, which will deliver the goods. An old saying many centuries old in Britain " As the days grow longer the Cold Gets Stronger"

and on the other side of the coin. .it's worthy of note..... (a penatrative-polar north westerly )...and most are in search of such synopticshort. ..and ultimately fruition. .. it's an open book. ..with each chance as favoured as the other. and at least we have some evolutionary probability to be looking out for!!! which in the pre/current situ. .is in itself something! !!

It would be a sight to behold if it was anchored near Scandinavia or to the north but in it's current position it's keeping us dry for a few days...nothing more nothing less and going by the latest ECM it's influence won't last that long.

Couldn't agree more. The ECM 12z at T240 has this: The reason the T850s are poor is due to lows up north meaning the air has had to take a westerly diversion across the Atlantic, they will be subject to change at this range, as indeed might the whole lot(!) but there's only cold coming from this point in the next couple of days. But that is the end of the run. Be good to get this northwesterly into the reliable so that we can talk about the specifics, but not yet, too much uncertainty.

The ecm 144 hrs is very similar to the UKMO in not phasing that low off the Eastern seaboard as can be seen for comparison to this mornings 12z 144 v 06z 168 ^this is what we want to see in terms of getting that NW'ly flow more pronounced and getting those cooler/colder temps in this is better from the ecm,trough/low still not phasing with the parent one even at 192.

Hi Everyone, lunchtime here in Montreal and it’s -10c with light snow falling. Seen 2 incredible snow events here since arriving and snow pretty much falling everyday from light showers to full on blizzards and it’s set to turn frigid cold tonight with -22c expected. I fly back next week and I’m glad to hear it’s finally stopped raining but not so glad to hear the 10 day chase is, as it were in November. Thankful to see snow this winter just a pity it wasn’t outside my own front door (Can’t beat snowfall at home)

I admit I have little trust in GFS's Day-10 predictions...If I had a pound for every T240 snow-day, I'd be a millionaire by now! More realistic?

Another resplendent winter sunset!

Was out walking in the southern uplands yesterday, Hart Fell, was expecting snow cover, alas nothing other than patches from previous falls. The freezing level was about 700m, still a good walk. Lakeland Fells above about 600m have a decent cover, I guess the central southern uplands don't do well from cold westerly/north westerly airstreams. A harsh frost overnight in Moffat. Lovely frosty scenes this morning.

well if we cannot afford to have notable blocking formats. ..and siberian incur. ..then tonight's 18z is a close 2nd best. . chronic directional north westerlies. ..with any-given chances for snow even on a'relatively low level basis'. eye watering cold in and around the Greenland plot. . with variance. ..but even the Atlantic will fail to tame such a scenario for a blast or two of cold/snow chances! it's as good as it gets from a PM airflow. .. and is still open to debate. ...but I'll take it right now! !! ps-loving those tIght-isobars. ...AS WE GAIN!

Don't like the ecm, uppers too warm because too much influence from the Atlantic, the air spends too much time in the Atlantic so it warms up for any snowfall to be confined to the higher hills. What does it take to get a true Northerly with Maritime Arctic Air flooding down over the country. Last time we saw that was 2nd half of Dec 2010.

Well! ECM T192: The model runs have seemed to converged on some kind of northwesterly cold snap for the UK, and ECM follows suit. Power to add? We will see...

A glorious end to a beautiful winters day. It was nice to see so many people out and about in the town making the most of it. The seafront cafes with outdoor seating were particularly busy. Pressure reached 1046.1 locally, that's some rise since Tuesdays 996.9!!

12z GEFS at T240 and most of the runs has the UK in cold air: Best P18:

I doubt it as the Atlantic will simply bring the next weather system in and probably the next after that. The 500 mb anomaly charts also strongly suggest in both the 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks at that height for the Atlantic to be, for most of the time, our weather suppllier. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

last 1 b4 ecm12z. . my interest is very much spicked ... a meaty pm flow looks highly likely. ..and plenty of cold knocking around us...for minor dynamical gain! !! keep watching! !!

Cracking sunset in the north east today

I think there will be a technical and decisive SSW but mid-late February, co-inciding with another MJO wave and will deliver a sting in the tail of winter and a cold spring.

GFS now moves over mostly to the UKMO solution with no phasing until 156 >> - Should be a colder run now with snow for the NW / NI etc at some point ~192-204 ish

Whatever next MET OFFICE ISSUES DRIZZLE ALERT BECAUSE IT MIGHT MESS WITH PEOPLE'S HAIR Level 4 warning issued for Sunday 19th January Severe hair disruption predicted due to drizzle please prepare accordingly.

I think the main thing we need to look out for is low pressure developing to our east south east rather than trying to get high pressure north or north west cuz that simply isn’t going to happen atm, then the whole lot of purple to our north could move fractionally east and bingo we would be in a proper cold n to nw flow, I think this is the way forward imo. As others above have said the lows developing from the us need to remain cut off for as long as possible to move everything that bit further east

lol...it's a jet warm sector... the jet in itself highly unlikely to even be in that baseposition by 30/01/2020. . let alone any possible warm/cold sector geographical pin pointing. .. 'God sakes'

Crapuweather strikes again! Their seasonal forecasts are absolutely terrible, last summers one was awful as well. It’s been unsettled here for sure, but stormy? We’ve only had 2 named storms....well down on previous winters. The rest of it is cack too. Best to ignore it really.

Interesting chart this from ICON at 120t. Rather than looking for a change from the NW , maybe look further south. The upper low over Iberia eventually splits the huge Atlantic / Euro Rex high. Going forward, not sure how that would eventually pan out weather wise but would at least keep the moist laden westerlies at bay over the British Isles and further time to dry out. Surface flow would be quite cold off the continent. Just looking at an other angle to break the dead lock as forecast charts to change from the North shown by all models at day 10 and beyond never seem to come off. C

I really, desperately hoped I'd be wrong about this winter...

Could well be compatible with the main cluster on the ECM, at least locally D15 clusters, coldies look away now I'm afraid... That's as hopeless a chart for cold as you can imagine. We got an early burst of spring at the end of last February - we might not be far away from the same but even earlier in February. Coldies in the south should make the most of frosts in the next few days, if you scrape enough ice off your windscreen then throw it up in the air, it can seem like snow for a split second

@Mr Frost looking for snow? Newfoundland has nicked it St John's new daily snowfall record 76cm! Extreme winter storm: Photos from eastern Newfoundland's monster blizzard WWW.CBC.CA check out my posts in the snow and ice twitter thread for more.

Strooth... After a crap 1st half of winter, let's at least hope for a sting in the tale, even if it continues into March. Has much as I like decent summer conditions, the though of spending countless nights stuck under a cooling fan fills me with dread! I will think about summer come May, until then, let's get a cold spell in, even if its only a 5 day affair... I still feel confident of something wintry in the next 6 weeks.... Plenty of time folks... Still some peachy 18z ens also..