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Good ECM >168 Its been pretty consistent past 24 hours... Cold with snow at the end!

Yes please ,I'm begging ,sausage sandwich coming up. Ok its day 10 chart ,but full of promise ,and the 9 day chart and 8 day good .wondering if the next thing we will hear is POLAR Vortex all over the news . Mind you we do have a good lobe of it forecast to be north of us in extended outlook. This is what i have been hoping for over past few days, and the date 28/29th jan as cropped up in many a weather site gossip. Let's see if tonights Gfs does a boom boom BOOM. Desperate times ,i need another coffee ,cheers gang , the advance guard of this winter is approaching from the n west ,i realy hope so .

Well ECM best run tonight, with a flow from the NW at T240: But noting GFS is flatter to this point, we kind of know what will happen, it will be somewhere in the middle, but somewhere in the middle means no cold air for the UK so odds on it is a bust, pending upgrades. GFS does show potential later, I would agree, but it is in cloud cuckoo land... ECM mean T240: There's an eerie purple cat's face in there, which is worrying, but I would say it actually gives good support to the op northwesterly. But we are now headed towards February with diddly squat to show for winter, with the benefit of hindsight it was all over the minute the UKMO mentioned the record positive Indian Ocean Dipole (October) - see excellent post on this in the teleconnections thread by @Blessed Weather - but I had never heard of the IOD before this year, as hadn't many others. What's for certain, is I'll look out for it with dread in the run up to winter in future years! SSW? We've never needed one more...

What's the time??? Its ensemble time!! It's well quite on here, the place was buzzing just the other day!! Come on folks, get behind me for a February cold chase... Will it, prey for it, dance for it! Possible early talk of an SSW!! We could do with it folks, and would certainly make Feb more exciting.... Never say never..

Yep good post ECM is the best run and that is saying something for how 'meh' the forecast looks for those of us in lowland Southern England The IOD is something I will also keep an eye out for in the autumn, along with... QBO, ENSO, SST's, MJO and bloody BBC, ITV, HRT, S&M, AC/DC and anything else that will no doubt scupper cold for winter 2020/21. Yes this is the first 'winter is over' post for next year!! But let's hope this leads to something:

Woke up, saw sun, made rolls, packed rucksack, drove to Loch Lomand and took the kids for a stomp up Conic Hill. It was one of those days when you wouldn't want to live anywhere other than Scotland.

Considering how much rain we've had since way back at the start of autumn I'd snap up that chart with open arms because it'll be dry!!

Grass frost hanging on in the shade, icy puddles and frozen windscreens this morning; temp 2C, nae wind while the strengthening sunlight brings a touch of warmth. A good day for a walk in one of the Angus Glens.

Could well be compatible with the main cluster on the ECM, at least locally D15 clusters, coldies look away now I'm afraid... That's as hopeless a chart for cold as you can imagine. We got an early burst of spring at the end of last February - we might not be far away from the same but even earlier in February. Coldies in the south should make the most of frosts in the next few days, if you scrape enough ice off your windscreen then throw it up in the air, it can seem like snow for a split second

I was lulled into thinking, due to the bright sunshine this morning, a walk in the glens might be quite pleasant. It was, in fact, ‘B’ baltic in upper Glen Lethnot due to a stiff bitter wind and the sun dropping behind the hills around 2pm. However, spent a ½ hour or so lower down, watching a very healthy-looking population of red squirrels. It was difficult to count the numbers as they dart about so quickly. A wary eye on you I’m invisible now

Well the snow below about 600 meters has almost gone - few patches knocking about. Quite pleasant today but a real chill in the air now. Lovely Winter’s day. Same again tomorrow then back to grey drizzly pish with 8c day and night for the week ahead here! Enjoy the rest of yer weekend and let’s all pray (snow lovers) that we see a widespread lowland snowfall event soon!

Not seen any snow on these hills/mountains for three and a half weeks! It is just nice to see a dusting at least! Lovely day with showers skirting past my location - plenty of sunshine and a warm feeling 5c!

ECM 0z @ 240 ECM 12z @ 240 ECM 12 z uppers @ 240 A little bit better at the end from ECM 12z in comparison to the 0z but hardly enough to get carried away with yet. The good news is that the GFS has been pointing at a cold Northwesterly for 28th / 29th Jan too for several runs . So there is still hope GEFS 12z control run @ 240

Indeed, I still have a callous/lump on my right middle finger from the hundreds of charts I plotted prior to becoming a forecaster and drawing them up.

Snow has falling in the Sahara desert and any northerly blast here keeps getting pushed further into phantom land.

It's the extent of the yellows and oranges that's got my interest piqued...Sooner or later (whenever the tPV starts to break down) all that warm air is going to flood north...?

No big changes on the 06z. The jet further south, so more unsettled for the south compared to the 0z. The tPV still in full-on mode with zero signs of any forcing, from the MJO or whatever: Chances in this setup for the odd PM blast, transitional, and likely to be watered down as we approach T0. Short-term, clear skies, so cold high for a couple of days, then more cloudy, so milder. This maybe the closest the south gets to a winter in 2019/20, so make the most, and enjoy...

Light dusting of wet snow here and icy in places, few wet snow/sleet showers rattling through on strong wind Ben Klibreck has a good covering.

Oooohhhhh GFS you are a tease, but I do love you...

I’m going to have my annual moan about the GFS and its longer range output ! Why do they bother when each run has something entirely different .

Thanks Dennis for you stratosphere plots earlier. Theres a possibility of complications with model projections due to the current period of heights. But the Ecm slows the trend slightly enables a warm flow of the Greenland iceshelf a precursor of a stratospheric warming. There's also alot of warm wave activity which is somewhat putting enormous pressure on the vortex holding it over the Eastern side of the pole double whammy would be a stratospheric warming which could possibly aid in a cold end to winter into spring. The vortex is definitely wobbling this allows pressure rises in unexpected places this then also desrupts the vortex further. But we shall see the cold troposphere verses the warm stratosphere. 50/50 but the Ecm is not the worst tonight.

Yes looks good, very good even, but the big question is will it still be there on the 00z run though?

Ecm looks pretty decent at the end again, yet not a single comment on the run!

The year without a winter just gone from Autumn to spring. Certainly going to be a Snow free Jan for us to go along with December. A dreadful winter none winter.

Not so toasty outside, the wind had a real bite to it. Still managed to get some useful work done outside though, with a second PIR floodlight fitted at the front of the garage. Ran wiring for one at the back garage door too, but got too cold and dark for me to actually fit and wire it in today. Will get finished tomorrow. Now sat nice and cosy with the log burner going.

The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch! The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....

Thanks, I’ll put a jumper on

Apart from yesterday at Cairngorm, I'm struggling to remember when I last saw snow falling. Another week of SW winds means that wont change anytime soon. As it stand, winter 2019/20 is the 13th warmest on record. February is predicted to be milder still. Personally, I'm just enjoying these long sunny days we have at present.

I love these coloured plotted charts. Almost old school charts. Going back some decades ago before computer print outs these and various other charts were hand plotted with two coloured ink pens at speed and drawn up by forecasters ( much more fun ) I think @johnholmes@knocker Anyway looks like some interesting weather over Iberia heading their way as confirmed with a developing upper trough on the model chart. C

Today's GFS 00Z not looking to good for my, or anyone else's, snow chances...?

When the trust in winter is at the bottom .....is help from above (the stratosphere) needed .

Ecm ,promise at the very end for some slushy showers ,going now for a good old chat up the garden wood shed ,we need a visit from the north so will ask the ECM to be full of late xmas cheer tonight ,lovely white crisp winter morning today , cheers . .

It really is tough for coldies so far this Winter. Again as the latest GFS shows the NH jet flow is so flat with little ridging anywhere keeping the cold bottled up above 60n much of the time.The high will at least give a mostly dry few days with some night frosts and daytime temperatures near normal so at least feeling a bit more seasonal.

It is what it is when the NH profile is zonal, it is the best we can expect. But for most it will be fleeting followed by a rise in temps and for the south a bit "meh". However, I will be grateful of something more interesting and some cold days followed by a NW'ly cold airflow will do for the time being. Maybe a rinse and repeat to follow if the pattern does not change. Though I would add that post-D8 remains fluid as the three main models show at D10: They are a variation on a theme and usually they meet in the middle, and that will be another damp squib. It is not until D12 that the GFS op gives us that NW'ly (supported by control). But this keeps being delayed so it seems on the never never at the moment! Neither the GEM or GFS mean supports the ECM op or the GFS D12 NW'ly so a way to go before we get unanimity for a 48h cold burst and compared to the January so far small pickings indeed (3.9c above average before today)! We shall see...

to me the most exciting time is seen soon at the models :

Just in the middle of a month in Alberta and we have had two weeks of bone chilling temperatures. We have has temps no higher than -32c during the day and -40c at night.

Stunning day out there today. Refreshing to see clear blue skies , so much better than the mehfest of late. totally get why the downbeat vibe in the MOD thread , good to see some of our more learned posters from here trying to inject some positivity there. but it’s still only 18th of January, model accuracy falls of a cliff like a drunken lemming after about 7 days so ........

Well of course it will, during Spring when the continents start to warm up. If the lack of snow cover continues over Europe then an early spring is possible. Rather sums up our winter this high pressure spell will bring in average to slightly above temperatures despite frosty nights and sunny days I'm afraid any cold and snow set ups are a long way off, really is very little signs of anything snowy showing.

Good Morning Tom, it is lovely to see you. It is a cool Saturday morning and it was 3 Celsius at 7:30 am. There was a light frost on the lawns of the back and front garden, as well as the roofs, and tops of vehicles. Then the sun came and the frost on the quickly disappeared when the sun's rays reached the lawn. It will be colder tonight. I hope that this won't be the last of the cold weather and that we see more later on. I love the cold fresh feeling of frost as I feel more energised. Sadly it is not as beautiful as the frosts that we had in the late 60's in Ashington in NE Northumberland. When it was cold and snowy in the 60's my cheeks would go very rosy but even in the past winters that never happened to me. I think it was part due to the fact that Ashington was three miles away from the sea. Yes, the winters in the 60's were very memorable and I have a lot of happy memories. Except I do not remember the winter of 1962 and 1963 as I was in production (as my mother was pregnant with me in Edinburgh, Scotland) she was worried that snow would not have gone by the time I was born at the end of July in 1963. It is very sad when shops close down, especially Waitrose as it is a very good quality of supermarket. Living in Ashington, it was the co-operative stores for us, along with the co-op butchers who even delivered groceries to my grandparents as well as the large co-op arcade department store with the many shops inside. Sadly there is only one co-op grocery store left as the rest of them closed even the co-op arcade department store which had it's own ball room and bank. Winters were definitely colder in the 60's and even in the 70's in London during the snow-less winters but if there was no snow, there would be frost or hail. I wish the jet stream would park itself further South down to North Africa and the Azores high would disappear. I am having Cheese Rigatoni with asparagus for breakfast and it is quite delicious. I hope Collete will have a good day at work. Take care Tom and Collete and I hope you will both have an upside Saturday.

to me it seems a first sign to a trend now ---- it shows more and more a warming into the strato last days

Morning all Looking across to the Cowal Peninsula there is snow! Snow line is roughly 400 meters and above. (As usual) Plenty of showers moving through in the past few hours and still going at the moment. Heading out shortly for a proper look as snow is hard to come by this Winter! Lowland snowfall wise end of January still looks interesting - North West/West looks best but even here it will only be for about 12 to 24 hours! (If it even becomes reality and no doubt you will need to live above 200 meters for snow to settle ) ECM: GFS for the same timeframe: As ever we shall see what happens - grim Winter so far from a cold/snow perspective and not much cheer for the long term currently. Glencoe is looking good if you seek a proper snow fix! Webcams - Glencoe Mountain Resort WWW.GLENCOEMOUNTAIN.CO.UK Click to refresh the page Click a thumbnail to view larger webcam view or scroll down for slideshow. Upper Depth 85cm Lower Depth 45cm Have a good weekend!

Goodmorning

SSW seen for late Jan

It might not seem much like winter to most of us but for those less fortunate a cold spell of weather is not particulary welcoming. Thankfully Hastings Borough Council have recognised this and are extending the opening of their overnight shelter and whilst the link hasn't updated I believe its going to remain open for the next few nights. Hastings council offering night shelter for rough sleepers: Everything you need to know - Hastings and St. Leonards Observer WWW.HASTINGSOBSERVER.CO.UK The council is providing a night shelter for the rough sleepers tonight (Monday, January 13) and tomorrow (Tuesday, January 14).

Gfs op was another mild run from the pack so don't give up hope of a Northerly, plenty of cold options still going, and the ecm run was quite promising.

UK COLD WEATHER ALERT LEVEL 2 Courtesy of UK Met Office

The northerly signal has more or less gone now but I always thought that was an outside chance in any case. What does seem to be a trend is for high pressure to stick around the UK for longer so a dry spell especially for southern areas could be on the cards. How much cloud becomes trapped under the high is the uncertainty at the moment

Slightly better for here still dont think the northerly is being handled particularly well and probably plenty more runs before it gets ironed out one way or another and still praying that the MJO can go into phase 7 as strongly as possible (still a split within the models on the strength)

From a lot of observations over the years I am sure we will see appreciable snow at some point in the next three months although perhaps not in winter but early to mid spring when sea temperatures are lowest and north and east winds become more frequent. Remembering too that we are really not that far from the Arctic circle.

Upper strat charts are a stonker on this run though, im going for a technical strat warming but in the second half of february.