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I think, if you’ve not already, that we will have to lower expectations for January re: cold and snow, history indicates that once a strong +AO along with +NAO sets in by the New Year, it could last for the rest of the winter. We only have to look at real stinkers of winters for cold and snow with +AO/+NAO most of the winter to be worried: to name a few 2013/2014; 2007/2008; 1999/2000; 1997/1998; 1989/1990; 1988/1989. Once the +AO/+NAO combo sets in, the models generally tend to perform better over longer time frames than when these indices are negative. Although the MJO briefly orbits through 7-8, it does so at low amplitude, so will likely have little effect on changing the wavelengths over the N Atlantic, furthermore there is strong support for the MJO to swiftly die into COD then emerge into the Maritime Continent, phases 4-5, which are warm phases, so there will likely be no help from the MJO through much of January. Though it is possible that the MJO will progress onwards to colder phases by mid-January – but the lag of this probably not having an effect until towards end of the month. The AO flipped suddenly from -2 to +3 in a space of a few days recently in December, so I suppose there’s chance that it may flip back –ve later in January or February – though it’s not quite clear what the precursor for this would be. But there is also every likelihood that it could remain +ve through much of the rest of the winter. The QBO has only recently turned easterly, so unlikely this will have an impact on the PV until later in winter, when the PV would normally start to wane anyway. So we are kind of reliant on tropical forcing over the Pacific changing the patterns at high latitudes, of which there is unlikely to be much help from for a few weeks at least. There is EAMT and GLAAM to consider, but that’s not my forte, so cannot really suggest if these will have positive impacts.

Well folks it's my last post of the year... Unfortunately, I will be back posting tomorrow.. So let's start with showing a few colder members from the 12z has we approach the new year! Just a quick mention also on the exter update... Perhaps mild in the North, but potentially staying cold in the South!! Now that would be a turn up for the books... And once again I wish you a very happy New Year.... Have some fun folks, you deserve it.... This model malarkey will still be here in the morning..

The Gaelic fluent half of our house says “robach” would be suitable here... Nice to hear you’re learning SS Beautiful and reassuringly chilly last day of the year here, currently -2c. Wee pic from rothiemurchus earlier Regarding (lack of) snow.. was fortunate enough to spend a few weeks this summer with friends who live at 7,600ft and 10,400ft Colorado. Even at their (literally) dizzying altitude they had grumbles about dwindling or erratic snow behaviour (2 feet of snow fell in some parts of the state 2 days in to summer this year).. so at least we’re not alone in our despair. Hefty snow (sub 2000ft) appears to kick in later each winter and I certainly don’t care for forecasts much beyond a week. The unbelievable rain events we experienced around here this year evidenced the unpredictability well, they developed within such a tiny timeframe. As we bugger-up the planet so we’ll struggle to fully read the consequences it seems Anyway, on a lighter note.. happy Hogmanay and all the best for the year ahead people, hopefully the snow batters us soon enough, slàinte mhath!

Fine day here after early ground frost. Fantastic sunset tonight Currently 1.5c with the ground starting to freeze and ice forming on sheltered puddles. Just finished my soux chef job with tatties, parsnips, carrots and brussels all peeled for tomorrows lunch. Happy New Year to all on the Scottish thread and elsewhere on netweather

Been a nice crisp winters day here. Frost lingered in the shade though the max got to 3C. Currently -0.4C. This image today from theHighlands would hardly have seemed credible just a week or so ago.

Doesn't seem to have got above freezing here today, dragged the kids out for a frosty walk around the trails. Hoping 2020 will be better than 2019 though not holding out much hope.

Shocking winter when everyone talking about the on below lol... HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE MAY IT BRING WEALTH AND HAPPINESS TO ALL

Incredible, GFS is sticking to it's guns. And UKMO.

The GFS has been reluctant to give up the ghost on some colder air heading se . And then holds the high in a better position to bring some continental air into the mix more especially for the south and se. However the horror combo of the ECM and UKMO hardly bring much cold air into the UK before swiftly dispatching that to the east . The GEFS still show solid support for that cold air into the north , a bit more mixed further south . Given the timeframes involved one or more models is going to have to eat humble pie. Putting aside the possible colder blip ! The outputs really from a snow perspective are abysmal . The ECM ensembles for the next twelve days need to come with a health warning , only after that does it show a decent scatter from the milder grouping . We have been here before many times but for the timebeing we seem to be stuck in a rut with a rampant PV . Things can change but they need to get a move on if there’s to be something decent for cold and snow lovers during January .

Well Gonzo spoiled the party and sends all the cold into Europe again. but at least it was better than the last flatter run in terms of more amplitude further north,back this pattern a good 1000 miles west and we would be on the money,is that too much to ask! Just to add that i will not be on here tomorrow night but probably a brief visit tomorrow morning/afternoon as i have guest's down for a new year party(who wouldn't)... so i would like to wish everyone on here a happy new year and enjoy yourself's,you have deserved it and i will see you in the new year,stay safe

Beautiful winters day with virtually no wind, unbroken sunshine and a max of 3c - already down to -2c. Lovely sunset to mark the end of the year as well. If we can't have snow then this kind of winter day will more than suffice.

Such a beautiful day weatherise ..... I think at this time of year you just have to enjoy whatever the weather throws at us .... Oxshott was resplendent in the low sun

Happy new year folks,but the last run of 2019 isn't convincing, GFS 18z here at T234: Lets hope for better in the new year, but if I'm honest I think we are into February for any chance of cold now, sorry, but that is just how I see it....

-1c here. Lovely. Looking forward to later on. Wee dram or 3. Some fireworks for the kids. Bed before 12 Happy 2020 folks!

Oh well, that's the skiing aspect of our trip to Austria done. Boo hoo. Hopefully not the last snow we see this winter, or the last opportunity we get to ski (and hopefully without having to head to the Alps). Been decent skiing despite temperatures overall being above average. Today was bright and sunny with even the top of the slopes above freezing, but the snow held up. That was helped by a dumping above mid level on Xmas day, and a few cold days this week where the cannons were running pretty much constantly. They'll be hoping for some more natural stuff to see them through the season though, especially lower down, which remains very icy with a covering of artificial. We start the long drive back tomorrow, tunnel crossing Friday, hopefully tucked up in our own beds Saturday night. Tonight we'll see if the Austrians/Germans go as mad with New Year fireworks as they did in Mayrhofen a couple of years ago. It was crazy.

Beautiful outside, the sun feels rather warm, went to Turriff tesco to get some last min bits, wow it was busier than xmas eve. was even a que for the barbers so came home and got the mach 3 out and did it myself. all smooth and shiny again. Happy New year to all you wonderful folk here in this thread, lets hope the new year starts with some new hope for SNAW for all..well at least us lot north of the border.

My gardeners are due out after new year to cut the grass and remove the leaves and other assorted crap that's gathered around the drive, paths and patios. I don't recall having to get the grass cut during winter since I built this house in 2004. Absolutely stunning day, clear blue skies, calm and cold at 0C.

What a difference a day makes, stunning blue sky and that burning ball of light is back again. might have to cut the grass today tho. ive never cut the grass between October and April before. this winter is seriously F**CKED UP...

Morning peeps Quite a gloomy start in Walthamstow, but not too cold infact it feels mild. i agree with the above Ido we cannot confidently say what will happen after 10 days time yet pinpoint the next 5. As mentioned in my previous posts the Euro slug is the nightmare and spoiler of many of our winters but quite the opposite in the summer for our hot summer lovers. Unfortunately there is not a lot we can do it is just dire frustration at the moment. We have to be patient and just go with this pattern. The Weatheronline outlook for the month does hint this high starting to move north possibly come mid Jan. Whether this will happen in our favour who knows no doubt taking into account there will be a lot of scatter in the models to try and get this resolved. If this high moves east or southeast eventually we are I think in trouble and will be back to square one as was the pattern earlier this month with weather fronts again getting stuck over us due to the block in the east. We just need to sit back and see where we go in the next few weeks. The only thing is I know we have plenty of winter left but this current pattern can take weeks away and I hope it does not come to a stage when we have only a few weeks left and we are still under command of this slug. Anyway peeps what a year of model watching it has been. From the beginning of 2019 when we thought as well as the models that winter had potential, but that came to nothing. We had the few days of heat in the summer and then the cold November. We end the year with the slug Euro high now . Let's hope 2020 brings us more luck and joy for all of us. With this I wish each and every one of you a happy and peaceful new year. Thanks to everyone for their great posts on here it has been a pleasure to read. Also a big thank you to the forum crew who have kept this place open for us. We start a new journey now in 2020 let it be a good one for all. all the best everyone THE SERCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND WILL CONTINUE Regards

Terrible dreich days recently. Saturday night into Sunday morning temp axed out at 14.6c. Also had a blast of wind at 60.6mph at 4.30am same day followed by lots of wet stuff. Skies cleared last night, been a while since I've seen starry skies! Current temp is a welcome 2c. It won't last unfortunately. Pity, it would have been nice to end the year with some frost. Hope you all have a great New Year and that we get at least one snow day this winter! Slainte!

I remember the winter of 1979 like it was yesterday. I was in my final year of primary school in Aberdeen. The snow and cold hung around for weeks, we made a monster ice slide in the playground which seemed to last forever. The single story building in the centre of the playground had 3 foot iceless hanging from the entire perimeter of the roof which we used to break off and eat. It's a shame the kids struggle to experience a proper winter these days.

Oh come on WiB, it's winter, a strong jet stream across the northern hemisphere is a more NORMAL pattern than a slower wavey jet stream which sends well above average temperatures at higher latitudes and much lower than normal temperatures at lower latitudes and we get told that pattern is down to climate change also! At the moment it looks a bit of a long way before any significant snow potential occurs, as others noted if the slightly more amplified GFS is right we may get slightly colder weather than the ECM/UKMO runs would suggest. Do bear in mind the GFS has a cold bias as it gets further forward in the output so I don't think the uppers will get as low as its suggesting sadly.

A lot of UK cold spells have nothing to do with SSW events. Winter 2009-10 wasn't cold because of a SSW event, infact the coldest severest part of that winter happened before the SSW event. Winter 2008-09, December and January were already below average before the SSW event during late January Winter 1978-79, the SSW event was late February but by then the severest coldest wintriest spells were largely over. The coldest part of winter 1976-77 happened before the SSW event, infact, it was generally mild after the SSW event. Winter 1962-63 was already severely cold before the SSW event.

That's more like it this morning! Frosty and cold. Edinburgh airport reporting -3c although not as cold as that here.

Was surprised to see quite a hard frost this morning. Walked the dog about 10.15am and the frost was still lingering in the shade and it was misty. Very atmospheric with the sun slanting through the trees. Just popped out to restock the log basket and it's a real peasouper out there! Temp 4.2c so doubt there will be a frost.

New December record high temp recorded in scotland today, 18.7c ! Says all you need to know about this winter ! Happy New Year all.

Happy New Year all! Flicked through the 51 ECM ensembles - by 14th January, it's generally high pressure to the SE and low pressure to the NW - but some tantalising alternatives - some runs bring the Euro high close enough to perhaps make the SE corner colder - and as many as 20% of runs threaten a Scandi High. To be continued in 2020!!!

ICON moving more towards the GFS solution there. Followed by a cold NWly.

Same here, almost - minimum of 1.5C under a clear sky and no frost. Must have been some residual heat after the last few days' heatwave. Here's to some snow although the models don't inspire optimism. Australia looks well and truly Similar to a young bullsed, and they have resources to look after affected people. What happens when poorer countries get wiped out by rising sea level, storms, fires, etc.? Eh? EH? Oh, no, Tory and SNP gov'ts will just carry on pretending nothing's changing. Happy New Year.

GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up.. I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario. I wouldn’t be backing it

Nineteenth air frost at -3.4°C. Just up above freezing at 12.35pm. Marv.

I think shaky the Ecm and ukmo have got this wrong regarding the weekend shaky. GFS does not appear to be alone.... I've just noticed the Exeter update for this region over the weekend.... Is much colder!! So it appears they don't even agree with there own model.

The Met office issued their winter LRF back in September. Bang on the money so far.

A possible slight eastward shift on the GFS. I'm hoping for a good frost Saturday night it may freeze the lawn so I can cut it. GFS FI land shows spring arriving early again at the moment. Hopefully the ECM will show something different but I don't hold my hopes up. Otherwise a happy new year to you all.

Here are the averages of snow lying days from 1981 to 2010. Even right on the coast they do get some snow days, albeit nothing like inland. They are also prone to high temperatures at time particularly in winter with the foehn effect.

Damn! That's higher than the highest minimum i've recorded in the Summer.

Also have a look at APREGE 12Z. We will see with ECMWF. This period is particularly interesting with regards to IMBY in Slovakia as we could be receiving some cold air initially and then surface cold, can be great once Atlantic fronts want to push in and create snowfall.GFS anim. attached

UKMO big step towards GFS too

The ENS have a few decent PM shots between them for mid next week, but when it’s looking so potentially wrong by day 3 it’s hardly worth thinking about anything beyond the weekend. PM shots would be about the best case scenario for now (for the north hills anyway)

Overnight low of -0.5 C here now 6.0 C and Wish I could of experienced that 1979: Huge waves batter Kirkcaldy - Fife Today WWW.FIFETODAY.CO.UK As 1978 came to an end the new year arrived with Fife subjected to some of the worst winter weather for may years.

Being an animal lover I find your comment utterly disgusting to be honest, having seen many news reports on koala's being found with horrendous burns, crying out in pain in one video i saw while a caring person was trying to treat the burns with cold water that reduced me to tears, sadly it had to be put to sleep as the burns were too severe to heal. It's an absolute tragedy what's unfolding over there with 10k being said to have perished in the fires, that's not a situation to be making fun of is it by talking of koala's being microwaved, these poor animals are suffering terribly & I don't find that funny in the slightest

I think its more the fact that the more this northerly digs in it will leave surface cold air in place and shall leave the high pressure more favourably placed across the uk compared to ecm and ukmo which is not as amplified at 96 hours therefore takes the high further south and east and leave us in mild muck!!surface conditions will be massively different!!need that northerly to dig in as far south and west as possible!!am sure you and i would take frosty conditions day and night compared to the crap we have endured so far!!

Morning all , at least GFS run this morning gives a more seasonal picture to start next week , especially over England and Wales with a rather chilly flow off the continent. Max temps forecast in the range 1 to 5 c over England and Wales on Monday and bit higher over Scotland and Wales. The air mass has quite low DPs so will feel chilly. In the medium term , the GFS has the better position of the high to hold some colder conditions in the south at least for a while. The runs presently not showing any penetration of Northerly flow cold into our latitudes ( UK/Euroland ) holding for long, so now best hope for some dry continental feed rather than soft cell SWly flow. Of course likely to change again in the next few but looks like a up hill battle to tap into some real cold at the moment. C

Morning all... US nic this morning shows the snow cover moving steadily south westwards in Eastern Europe. The ice (unlike yesterday in extent), makes small gains with yesterdays losses in Barents and SOO being more restricted . Bering, however continues to power onwards.. MIA

I just can’t believe the complete lack of cold. These charts are for January and there is double digit uppers in Scandinavia and Russia! I think it’s going to be one of those years unfortunately where we just get a short cold spell in Feb.

4 days blank, 281 for 2019, 77% Solar flux 72 Thermosphere: 2.65

The EC will be correct as it shows the milder option.

Climate change has nothing to do with the flat northern hemisphere pattern we have at the moment so don't link the two together. This is a normal weather pattern for winter, not weather patterns which sends WAA all the way to the pole bringing 20 to 30C above average temperatures which in turns bring the phrase of Arctic amplification into play. It's frustrating as a cold snow lover too see the charts at the moment but it's what it is. It can change but if or when that will be then who knows. Chance of some polar air heading down via the toppler but how much heads southwards is up for debate. Either way, snowfall looks very limited by this set up.

A colder northwesterly feed still shown in the wake of a low pressure system moving southeast over the top of high pressure out West around the 3rd/4th this high then like I said yesterday shown to sit to the southeast of the UK.. This would bring a spell of rain southeast over the country with wintry showers for Scotland. The Gfs also showing colder conditions for particularly England and Wales from around 5th of January until the end of the run really with a slack feed off the continent this would bring very Frosty nights with daytime temperatures staying in the low to mid single figures for central and southern parts there would be fog too in places perhaps freezing fog and mostly dry for these areas as Atlantic disturbances are kept at bay to the Northwest of the country with milder but not particularly mild conditions for Ireland. 5th.. 7th.. 8th.. That's the Gfs but Gem and Ecm very different surface wise with a more established strong west or northwesterly flow across the UK, bringing eventually some rain to most parts during the time period after the 5th which is when the Gfs keeps things settled and increasingly cold from stagnent conditions and no source of mild air except for northwestern areas. Strong winds would also be a feature too with the ecm and particularly the Gem as increasingly active low pressure systems move across the Gem in particular showing a very unsettled 6-10 days with heavy rain sweeping through even a little snow to some places but the emphasis would be on increasingly stormy conditions going by the Gem with milder then colder intervals alternating at first then colder generally as a southerly tracking jetstream takes place. Ecmwf.. 5th.. 7th.. 9th.. Gem.. 6th.. 7th.. 8th.. 9th.. Ofcourse its important not to get hung up on any particular model when there are various scenarios best looking at the average especially for the time period I'm showing and putting the average output of these together we have this.. 6th.. 7th.. 8th.. 9th.. Around the 5th or 6th high pressure still in charge for southern areas but a more unsettled pattern beginning to take place for northern areas this at first would be mild but then as more unsettled weather becomes more established more widely we would see colder incursions from the Northwest behind systems bringing the threat of wintry showers and perhaps back edge wintriness on occasion to any active frontal systems moving southeast. But this output is 7-10 days away so not to be taken too literally but the average is consistent atm.

Third beautiful river sunset of the xmas holidays, may have one more today before the gloom returns. So no cold weather on the horizon - but as the days get longer, will the cold get stronger is the big question. Happy 2020 for tomorrow night everyone!