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Showing content with the highest reputation on 31/12/19 in all areas

  1. I think, if you’ve not already, that we will have to lower expectations for January re: cold and snow, history indicates that once a strong +AO along with +NAO sets in by the New Year, it could last for the rest of the winter. We only have to look at real stinkers of winters for cold and snow with +AO/+NAO most of the winter to be worried: to name a few 2013/2014; 2007/2008; 1999/2000; 1997/1998; 1989/1990; 1988/1989. Once the +AO/+NAO combo sets in, the models generally tend to perform better over longer time frames than when these indices are negative. Although the MJO briefly orbits th
    18 points
  2. Well folks it's my last post of the year... Unfortunately, I will be back posting tomorrow.. ? So let's start with showing a few colder members from the 12z has we approach the new year! Just a quick mention also on the exter update... Perhaps mild in the North, but potentially staying cold in the South!! Now that would be a turn up for the books... And once again I wish you a very happy New Year.... Have some fun folks, you deserve it.... This model malarkey will still be here in the morning.. ??
    17 points
  3. The Gaelic fluent half of our house says “robach” would be suitable here... Nice to hear you’re learning SS Beautiful and reassuringly chilly last day of the year here, currently -2c. Wee pic from rothiemurchus earlier Regarding (lack of) snow.. was fortunate enough to spend a few weeks this summer with friends who live at 7,600ft and 10,400ft Colorado. Even at their (literally) dizzying altitude they had grumbles about dwindling or erratic snow behaviour (2 feet of snow fell in some parts of the state 2 days in to summer this year).. so at least we’re not alone in our despair. H
    11 points
  4. Fine day here after early ground frost. Fantastic sunset tonight Currently 1.5c with the ground starting to freeze and ice forming on sheltered puddles. Just finished my soux chef job with tatties, parsnips, carrots and brussels all peeled for tomorrows lunch. Happy New Year to all on the Scottish thread and elsewhere on netweather
    10 points
  5. Been a nice crisp winters day here. Frost lingered in the shade though the max got to 3C. Currently -0.4C. This image today from theHighlands would hardly have seemed credible just a week or so ago.
    9 points
  6. Doesn't seem to have got above freezing here today, dragged the kids out for a frosty walk around the trails. Hoping 2020 will be better than 2019 though not holding out much hope.
    9 points
  7. Shocking winter when everyone talking about the on below lol... HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE MAY IT BRING WEALTH AND HAPPINESS TO ALL?
    9 points
  8. Incredible, GFS is sticking to it's guns. And UKMO.
    9 points
  9. The GFS has been reluctant to give up the ghost on some colder air heading se . And then holds the high in a better position to bring some continental air into the mix more especially for the south and se. However the horror combo of the ECM and UKMO hardly bring much cold air into the UK before swiftly dispatching that to the east . The GEFS still show solid support for that cold air into the north , a bit more mixed further south . Given the timeframes involved one or more models is going to have to eat humble pie. Putting aside the possible colder blip ! The outputs
    9 points
  10. Well Gonzo spoiled the party and sends all the cold into Europe again. but at least it was better than the last flatter run in terms of more amplitude further north,back this pattern a good 1000 miles west and we would be on the money,is that too much to ask! Just to add that i will not be on here tomorrow night but probably a brief visit tomorrow morning/afternoon as i have guest's down for a new year party(who wouldn't)... so i would like to wish everyone on here a happy new year and enjoy yourself's,you have deserved it and i will see you in the new year,stay safe
    9 points
  11. Beautiful winters day with virtually no wind, unbroken sunshine and a max of 3c - already down to -2c. Lovely sunset to mark the end of the year as well. If we can't have snow then this kind of winter day will more than suffice.
    8 points
  12. Such a beautiful day weatherise ..... I think at this time of year you just have to enjoy whatever the weather throws at us .... Oxshott was resplendent in the low sun ☀️
    8 points
  13. Happy new year folks,but the last run of 2019 isn't convincing, GFS 18z here at T234: Lets hope for better in the new year, but if I'm honest I think we are into February for any chance of cold now, sorry, but that is just how I see it....
    7 points
  14. -1c here. Lovely. Looking forward to later on. Wee dram or 3. Some fireworks for the kids. Bed before 12 ? Happy 2020 folks!
    7 points
  15. Oh well, that's the skiing aspect of our trip to Austria done. Boo hoo. Hopefully not the last snow we see this winter, or the last opportunity we get to ski (and hopefully without having to head to the Alps). Been decent skiing despite temperatures overall being above average. Today was bright and sunny with even the top of the slopes above freezing, but the snow held up. That was helped by a dumping above mid level on Xmas day, and a few cold days this week where the cannons were running pretty much constantly. They'll be hoping for some more natural stuff to see them through the seaso
    7 points
  16. Beautiful outside, the sun feels rather warm, went to Turriff tesco to get some last min bits, wow it was busier than xmas eve. was even a que for the barbers so came home and got the mach 3 out and did it myself. all smooth and shiny again. Happy New year to all you wonderful folk here in this thread, lets hope the new year starts with some new hope for SNAW for all..well at least us lot north of the border.
    7 points
  17. My gardeners are due out after new year to cut the grass and remove the leaves and other assorted crap that's gathered around the drive, paths and patios. I don't recall having to get the grass cut during winter since I built this house in 2004. Absolutely stunning day, clear blue skies, calm and cold at 0C.
    7 points
  18. What a difference a day makes, stunning blue sky and that burning ball of light is back again. might have to cut the grass today tho. ive never cut the grass between October and April before. this winter is seriously F**CKED UP...
    7 points
  19. Morning peeps ? Quite a gloomy start in Walthamstow, but not too cold infact it feels mild. i agree with the above Ido we cannot confidently say what will happen after 10 days time yet pinpoint the next 5. As mentioned in my previous posts the Euro slug is the nightmare and spoiler of many of our winters but quite the opposite in the summer for our hot summer lovers. Unfortunately there is not a lot we can do it is just dire frustration at the moment. We have to be patient and just go with this pattern. The Weatheronline outlook for the month does hint this high starting to move nort
    7 points
  20. Terrible dreich days recently. Saturday night into Sunday morning temp axed out at 14.6c. Also had a blast of wind at 60.6mph at 4.30am same day followed by lots of wet stuff. Skies cleared last night, been a while since I've seen starry skies! Current temp is a welcome 2c. It won't last unfortunately. Pity, it would have been nice to end the year with some frost. Hope you all have a great New Year and that we get at least one snow day this winter! Slainte! ????
    7 points
  21. I remember the winter of 1979 like it was yesterday. I was in my final year of primary school in Aberdeen. The snow and cold hung around for weeks, we made a monster ice slide in the playground which seemed to last forever. The single story building in the centre of the playground had 3 foot iceless hanging from the entire perimeter of the roof which we used to break off and eat. It's a shame the kids struggle to experience a proper winter these days.
    6 points
  22. Oh come on WiB, it's winter, a strong jet stream across the northern hemisphere is a more NORMAL pattern than a slower wavey jet stream which sends well above average temperatures at higher latitudes and much lower than normal temperatures at lower latitudes and we get told that pattern is down to climate change also! At the moment it looks a bit of a long way before any significant snow potential occurs, as others noted if the slightly more amplified GFS is right we may get slightly colder weather than the ECM/UKMO runs would suggest. Do bear in mind the GFS has a cold bias as it gets f
    6 points
  23. A lot of UK cold spells have nothing to do with SSW events. Winter 2009-10 wasn't cold because of a SSW event, infact the coldest severest part of that winter happened before the SSW event. Winter 2008-09, December and January were already below average before the SSW event during late January Winter 1978-79, the SSW event was late February but by then the severest coldest wintriest spells were largely over. The coldest part of winter 1976-77 happened before the SSW event, infact, it was generally mild after the SSW event. Winter 1962-63 was already severely cold befo
    6 points
  24. That's more like it this morning! Frosty and cold. Edinburgh airport reporting -3c although not as cold as that here.
    6 points
  25. Was surprised to see quite a hard frost this morning. Walked the dog about 10.15am and the frost was still lingering in the shade and it was misty. Very atmospheric with the sun slanting through the trees. Just popped out to restock the log basket and it's a real peasouper out there! Temp 4.2c so doubt there will be a frost.
    6 points
  26. New December record high temp recorded in scotland today, 18.7c ! Says all you need to know about this winter ! Happy New Year all.
    5 points
  27. Happy New Year all! Flicked through the 51 ECM ensembles - by 14th January, it's generally high pressure to the SE and low pressure to the NW - but some tantalising alternatives - some runs bring the Euro high close enough to perhaps make the SE corner colder - and as many as 20% of runs threaten a Scandi High. To be continued in 2020!!!
    5 points
  28. ICON moving more towards the GFS solution there. Followed by a cold NWly.
    5 points
  29. Same here, almost - minimum of 1.5C under a clear sky and no frost. Must have been some residual heat after the last few days' heatwave. Here's to some snow although the models don't inspire optimism. Australia looks well and truly Similar to a young bullsed, and they have resources to look after affected people. What happens when poorer countries get wiped out by rising sea level, storms, fires, etc.? Eh? EH? Oh, no, Tory and SNP gov'ts will just carry on pretending nothing's changing. Happy New Year.
    5 points
  30. GFS is massively out on its own with the slightly less mild solution over the weekend in to next week, whilst the more reliable models all agree on a more mild set-up.. I can’t think of a time when GFS has come up trumps in this kind of scenario. I wouldn’t be backing it
    5 points
  31. Nineteenth air frost at -3.4°C. Just up above freezing at 12.35pm. Marv.
    5 points
  32. I think shaky the Ecm and ukmo have got this wrong regarding the weekend shaky. GFS does not appear to be alone.... I've just noticed the Exeter update for this region over the weekend.... Is much colder!! So it appears they don't even agree with there own model.
    5 points
  33. The Met office issued their winter LRF back in September. Bang on the money so far.
    5 points
  34. A colder northwesterly feed still shown in the wake of a low pressure system moving southeast over the top of high pressure out West around the 3rd/4th this high then like I said yesterday shown to sit to the southeast of the UK.. This would bring a spell of rain southeast over the country with wintry showers for Scotland. The Gfs also showing colder conditions for particularly England and Wales from around 5th of January until the end of the run really with a slack feed off the continent this would bring very Frosty nights with daytime temperatures staying in the low to mid s
    5 points
  35. Check into the model thread....see a few cold cherry picked outlier ensemble members on the thread....check out again ? no change. AO/NAO continued forecast positive. The waiting game continues. Happy new year one and all!
    4 points
  36. just went below freezing here -0.1 C / DP -0.9 C
    4 points
  37. So there we have it, the last full run of 2019, and of the decade, the big three, GFS, UKMO and ECM at T144, just the 18z runs to go but that's our lot from UKMO and ECM, until 2020. Happy New Year everyone, have a lovely evening whatever your doing, don't drink too much....on the other hand it's only once a year! Let's hope that the new year will be all change in the models and we will start to see some decent winter charts with lots of snaaawwwwwww! ? ??
    4 points
  38. The cities are typically on the coast and so the temperatures are more extreme inland. Very easy to have temperatures well above 40C away from the major cities in every state, but also have no cities reach 40C. It doesn't require a slight of hand from the BBC!
    4 points
  39. A possible slight eastward shift on the GFS. I'm hoping for a good frost Saturday night it may freeze the lawn so I can cut it. GFS FI land shows spring arriving early again at the moment. Hopefully the ECM will show something different but I don't hold my hopes up. Otherwise a happy new year to you all.
    4 points
  40. Damn! That's higher than the highest minimum i've recorded in the Summer. ?
    4 points
  41. Also have a look at APREGE 12Z. We will see with ECMWF. This period is particularly interesting with regards to IMBY in Slovakia as we could be receiving some cold air initially and then surface cold, can be great once Atlantic fronts want to push in and create snowfall.GFS anim. attached
    4 points
  42. The ENS have a few decent PM shots between them for mid next week, but when it’s looking so potentially wrong by day 3 it’s hardly worth thinking about anything beyond the weekend. PM shots would be about the best case scenario for now (for the north hills anyway)
    4 points
  43. Being an animal lover I find your comment utterly disgusting to be honest, having seen many news reports on koala's being found with horrendous burns, crying out in pain in one video i saw while a caring person was trying to treat the burns with cold water that reduced me to tears, sadly it had to be put to sleep as the burns were too severe to heal. It's an absolute tragedy what's unfolding over there with 10k being said to have perished in the fires, that's not a situation to be making fun of is it by talking of koala's being microwaved, these poor animals are suffering terribly & I don
    4 points
  44. I think its more the fact that the more this northerly digs in it will leave surface cold air in place and shall leave the high pressure more favourably placed across the uk compared to ecm and ukmo which is not as amplified at 96 hours therefore takes the high further south and east and leave us in mild muck!!surface conditions will be massively different!!need that northerly to dig in as far south and west as possible!!am sure you and i would take frosty conditions day and night compared to the crap we have endured so far!!
    4 points
  45. Morning all... US nic this morning shows the snow cover moving steadily south westwards in Eastern Europe. The ice (unlike yesterday in extent), makes small gains with yesterdays losses in Barents and SOO being more restricted . Bering, however continues to power onwards.. MIA
    4 points
  46. I just can’t believe the complete lack of cold. These charts are for January and there is double digit uppers in Scandinavia and Russia! I think it’s going to be one of those years unfortunately where we just get a short cold spell in Feb.
    4 points
  47. The EC will be correct as it shows the milder option.
    4 points
  48. Climate change has nothing to do with the flat northern hemisphere pattern we have at the moment so don't link the two together. This is a normal weather pattern for winter, not weather patterns which sends WAA all the way to the pole bringing 20 to 30C above average temperatures which in turns bring the phrase of Arctic amplification into play. It's frustrating as a cold snow lover too see the charts at the moment but it's what it is. It can change but if or when that will be then who knows. Chance of some polar air heading down via the toppler but how much heads southwards is up for d
    4 points
  49. Third beautiful river sunset of the xmas holidays, may have one more today before the gloom returns. So no cold weather on the horizon - but as the days get longer, will the cold get stronger is the big question. Happy 2020 for tomorrow night everyone!
    4 points
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