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Whatever the weather does or the models show, A Happy Christmas to everyone

A very Merry Christmas to all members & lurkers here on NetWeather. I hope everyone enjoys there festive period

It doesn't look a bad Christmas day with the ridge just arriving on que so bright and chilly after some early frost and patchy fog. It seems post Christmas we have a few mild days to come as the High settles over the near continent with a south westerly flow and fronts moving across the UK before a more pronounced westerly pattern kicks in later. ECM Mean charts days 5/10 so temperatures closer to normal into the new month but with more frontal rain and showers to come. Not a great outlook for Wintry weather that's for sure as current outputs are not showing any deep cold on offer in the next 10 days or so. There again the chances of transient polar maritime shots are always possible in a +ve NAO setup,especially if the core of the sub-tropical high positions further west sending the jet on a nw-se angle. At this stage i think it's far too early to be too downbeat about cold prospects further into January because of current modeling.We have seen ens.outputs switch over a few days before and i dare say they will again before long. Anyway whatever the charts say i wish everyone all the very best for the holidays and hope you and your families have a great Christmas.

Quick scan through the 12z ensembles and, unfortunately from a cold perspective, there is nothing there at all. The best and only run for real cold is the GEM operational. Which won't happen! On that less than positive note, may I wish every Netweather member, coldie, mildie (if that is a thing?), sceptic, and those who post thoughout summer too, a very happy Christmas and a SSW new year! Regards Mike

Final one from me before Santa arrives. A glimmer of hope on the latest ECM ( Re Day 10 chart ) that real cold air mass moves from Northern Canada and sinks slowly SE into the Greenland Sea and seeps so close to Northern Scotland. Tap into that and serious cold to follow with -25c 850mb uppers heading towards Iceland. Need to sink that Bartlet High or retrogress and let the Arctic front sink. Happy Christmas to all Net weather folk. Beer time beckons. C

I felt that the upcoming week would feature a block a bit further north, and I also thought we would get a bit more coherent MJO passage moving forward. The two are partly connected. The truth is that if we don’t get sufficient warm forcing on the vortex to create significant stress, in a year when the Pacific lacks a coherent signal and sub tropical high pressure is therefore likely to struggle to ridge much further north, then the chances of a significantly cold snap or spell take a hit. Obviously there is time for changes to occur, but right now the odds of winter blocking establishing in the right place look to me to be lengthening. In my own mind I’ve written off the first half of January already (to be fair I’d written off early January a good while back) but I’m beginning the think the latter half of January will also struggle to deliver much of significance. For February to give us a potent latter phase we need the +IOD to fade as fast as possible, the next MJO wave consequently to emerge with some force in late January, the eQBO to make a proper showing in January, SSTs to remain favourable (currently they are ok) and ideally a late January SSW. All are possible. A slice of luck as per Feb 2018 wouldn’t go amiss either. Happy Christmas to everyone on Netweather. Hard work at the moment with the seasonals refusing to budge and drivers not quite aligning, but what happened in 2018 signposts clearly how nothing in terms of weather can ever be taken for granted so let’s keep our glasses half full. And on that note - my empty wine glass is calling....

Merry Christmas to all posters and lurkers!

I thought there was a chance that the models were playing catch up with height rises over Scandi but alas that wasn't to be. Not good for us coldies. However, I feel quite philosophical about it - at least we will be less inclined to be distracted by the weather models over Christmas. We can place our energies more into the people and things that matter most to us Merry Christmas everyone

We need to keep an eye on the ens for the next few days because i have seen a gradual trend to cooler temps this evening for the 30th-31st> this evenings v 4 days ago i presume this short but sharp drop in ens are from a PM source of air and could get cooler,watch this space.

Well no point in sugar coating it’s drab!! The vortex ramping right up and looks as though the equatorial pressure has made its home literally into the mid latitudes. We need a dramatic change in upper dynamics for a turnaround! And I would be looking for perhaps late January/early feb.... at least as we stand! Things can and do happen... but we need quite a dramatic turn of events given current data -throughout: Anyway a very merry mild-merry Xmas to you all . And perhaps even a record breaking mild January day or two just to add!!!!

Bloody laptop crashed last night and I was up until half 1 doing a factory reset. Then spent all morning trying to find my forums and groups and remember passwords. Buggerit. And it's still bloody raining.

Ec op throws out a surprise n pacific ridge day 10 - that’s would shake up the nwp if it became a theme ....

although gem not without interest and to be honest looking at the big 3 models we are pretty close to an easterly but just not enough dig from the lower heights into the med. but its the gem so far that grabs some attention till the ecm anyway. bit colder into eastern europe and including a cold blast for most of us. i mean touch of winter lol. merry christmas everyone.

Just want to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, has been another brilliant year of weather and some great photos, videos and discussions in here as usual this year, heres to another year of all weather types again in 2020

A little look at the temperatures for the next few days from the GFS 12Z, using both the maximum and minimum temperture charts, and as Jordan mentioned in an ealier post, generally chillier the further North in the UK you go and milder further South. A chance for the temperatures to get into the low double digits at times, particularly across the far South. In sunny spells (and if it's the kind of weather you enjoy), it could feel quite pleasant. Christmas Day, though, does looks to be a fairly cool day for all of the UK overall (3rd chart below), with a very chilly night across Northern UK. Could help give the UK a bit of a wintry and Christmassy feeling. Does look cold enough for some frost at times, most especially over the Northern UK parts. And apart from Friday across Southern UK, nights overall look to be chilly. Further ahead, and as covered by some others, it looks possible that the ridges of High Pressure that build over and to the East of the UK in the next few days, could very well collapse with Low Pressure systems in the Atlantic looking eager to spill over the top. A more mobile, Westerly, flow then breaking back through over the UK. When looking at the operational models, this seems like the most likely scenario for now. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Tonight's NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb chart above, showing a smilar sort of outcome with an upper flow from the West over the UK. Though it looks possible that the upper High Pressure could be close enough to the South-West of the UK to allow some flatt(ish) ridging to influence the UK at times. So probably no real washout conditions, especially across Southern UK. It's certainly not impossible some colder, wintrier charts could turn up as the New Year rolls in. Even though a more, mobile, Westerly Atlantic pattern could break through (and even then it may only influence the North of the UK), its very possible the pattern could trend towards a more colder, zonal, outlook eventually with a chance of High Pressure getting pushed out West or South-West. But a bit too far away for this to be certain. There may also be a slight chance that the likely Eastern UK High Pressure could gain enough latitude towards this weekend allowing Low Pressure from the West in the Atlantic to undercut and prop the High further North. But... I do think this would be a big stretch considering the models show the Low Pressure to the West of the European ridging this weekend to be a little bit too positively tilted and dominant to let the High Pressure gain enough latitude. I think some of you will definitely be wanting the blue and purple thing to get a right ol' beating to that area to the North-West of us! (Although, to be fair, it's not causing too much trouble over that place at the moment). While it's not the snow and deep cold conditions some fancy, the next few nights will be chilly. Especially again, over Northern UK, maybe with a bit of falling white stuff over high ground areas for some on Boxing Day. With the High Pressure building over to the East and South-East of the UK, the stomach of the weather should settle down a bit. Essentially some drier conditions. More so towards South-Eastern UK areas with a break from some of the wind and rain. North-Western areas of the UK, however, generally more exposed to some cloudier, wet weather at times as the models show pressure to be lower over those parts at times. (I appreciate even those areas deserve a break from the sneaky rain). Since it's not too far away now, would like to wish everyone in the land of Netweather... I hope it's a great one May there be lots of surprises for the various weather fans of 2020!

Happy Christmas to all whatever the weather.

Shattered... all veg prep done and one of 2 meats roasted off.. merry Xmas all. Have a great time stay safe.

Well if it can’t be freezing cold and hammering with snow I’d take this monster storm . Better than the dross we have now . (Not that it will verify)

Just returned from a children's carol service at our local church. As it was quite warm and dry when we left home I did not bother taking a coat with me and we all got rather wet getting back to the car in the steady drizzle, not that our grandson seemed to mind. I hope everyone has an enjoyable Christmas and a healthy, peaceful New Year.

Good summary Desperate, desperate stuff. That's it for me until the weekend I think. Nothing is going to change quickly so, hopefully, by the 28th/29th something a bit more positive is being forecast Have a good one everyone

Just look at the size and extent of the high pressure to our south, SW and SE. It is huge and is now, almost, a semi-permanent feature that has given us very warm winters for years now (2009-2013 aside). But, also, generally, pretty warm summers too, especially down here in the south Bearing this winter and last in mind, does the low solar output = cold winter theory need a serious re-visit? Or is it too early for that. I can't help thinking other changes in climate are over-riding all current theories

And still there this evening,there does seem to be a lot of scatter just after the 27th(that's only 4-5 days away),crazy! temps,dew points and wind direction i will give it until tomorrow to see how this develops or not there isn't that much to talk about at the moment in regards to cold so i am signing out for a few days to do some late Chrimbo shopping tomorrow so... i wish everyone a merry Chrismas.

Merry Christmas to all my SE friends old and new.

Indeed. The Penlee Lifeboat memorial at Mousehole illustrates this point, from another memorable storm, that I remember well

You would actually like something like this to verify?

Yup nice FI chart sadly will be gone next run no doubt. Pity it isn't five days away something to get your teeth into.

Cracking storm on the 12z - and a blizzard in the true sense of the word on high ground in N England and particularly the Scottish highlands.

Masie confirms my earlier remarks.. A double the average gain of 111K Km2 keeps the sea ice moving up the tables. Chukchi (+3K), Being (0) and SOO (+20K) were reported from the eastern extents, whilst the west gained heaviest today with Kara(+5K), Barents(+26K), Greenland(+4K) and Baffin(+38K) all moving steadily into the open waters. Hudson appears to be sealed off now with a further (+6K). CR is still talking about the Arctic becoming very cold over the next couple of days. It will be interesting to see this affects the ice margins that much. As reported/ observed in other threads there is some serious cold (-50C) expected to hit Alaska, now that the wind is shifting from a southerly quadrant, for the first time for many months. It is nearly the time, now it has reached Xmas, that extent begins to take a back seat to volume. The additional cold now moving in ought to enable the ice to hold the 3rd position currently held within PIOMAS. However , I shall be out travelling all day tomorrow, so may I wish you all the best wishes for Christmas. I hope that Santa doesn't get stuck in the ice alongside the 2 research projects, currently cogitating up there. More importantly- everyone keep healthy. MIA o

Time for a break from the model watching. Happy Christmas to all fellow weather geeks! Hopefully we’ll get some eye candy in a few days time when I return.

Some glimmer of hope there maybe on the 06z. Pity that the PV is getting it's act together just as the Scandi high is trying to set up. Greece and Turkey look likely to get the snow again, but Capracotta in Southern Italy might just miss out on its usual 6ft of snow this time round. Anyway, at least we are saving on heating bills, makes up for November when I had the heating on high for much of the month. So lets see what turns up after the holidays, more than two months of Winter to go, and then the fun usually starts in March/April so lots to look forward to. Have a lovely Christmas everyone, chill out and have a fab time, I will drink a toast tomorrow to all the fantastic people on netweather for good heath, prosperity, and a white outlook in the new year!

I am hopeful for a frosty Christmas morning here in Biggin Hill . Sun is out today (after a brief, fairly heavy shower); , just sat watching two squirrels and two robins filling up on nuts and seed. Merry Christmas everyone.....fingers crossed for some wintry, snowy weather in the new year (a complete 'white out' would be awesome, but perhaps wishing for a bit too much). Enjoy your festivities x

Morning all, Not as bright as yesterday here, mostly cloudy and currently 4c in St Andrews. Wishing everyone a very merry Christmas and (hopefully) a snowy New Year! Some very tentative indications of things turning colder into New Year - worth keeping an eye on!

Bleak news......METO have updated their winter forecast and Glosea obviously offers zero hope as they are going for wetter and milder right through to March .. The hunt for cold goes on, but its becoming increasingly forlorn,i have been on these forums for 15 years or more and once this +NAO pattern entrenches......

Morning all All doom and gloom at the moment but just some crumbs of comfort. Just seen the Weather Outlook forcast for January and the reckon there is going to be a cell of high pressure that will drift north come mid Jan possibly then turning our winds to the NE or E and with that some wintry weather all the way till the end of Jan. I have seen their past monthly forecasts and they have been pretty good. Whether this will pan out as they say no one knows but only the one glimmer of light I can see today. With this just like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas . It's been a real pleasure reading the posts and seeing all the regulars. Thanks to the more knowledgable who have shared their thoughts it has been very helpful. Also thanks to the forum for being here where would we go without you and a big thanks to the seniors in command who have taken a great deal of time and effort to run this place. Our rollercoaster search will always go on no matter how many ups and downs there are. I wish everyone the best of health and happiness for 2020. Let's hope it will be a new era of winters to remember. thanks once again to all you. Wonderful peeps. all the best Regards

I wasn’t going to look at the GEM but did after seeing some comments. To be honest I was expecting something (as relatively good as it is) a little more impressive than that. It looks well within the envelope of possibilities (clearly on the colder side of). Chart of the day though has to be the ECM D10. A nice bit of Pacific forcing. Let the vortex know it’s not going to have it all its own way. One to keep tabs on... ?

To everyone here on the SE thread - I hope you have a very Happy Christmas.

Seasons' greetings to one and all. However, I'm not a big fan of the faux religious Xmas with its excessives, waste, and commercial connections, but at least it draws ( albeit temporary) attention to homelessness, lonlieness and family disconnects. Off to tread eggshells tomorrow. Much prefer NY's eve with neighbourly or even Burn's night associations.

Just the same here in the fields although a bit of frost yesterday helped us lift a few more neeps but we went through a set of belts on the lifter with the tough conditions. Very dank and misty day here which is not helping an outbrake of pneumonia in the calves in spite of their earlier vaccination in early November.We are not alone as the grapevine says a lot of cattle farmers have the same problem.The last two months have just been to humid calm and wet. Heres to a bit less rain and more wind in the New Year and in the meantime I wish everyone A Happy Christmas on the Scottish thread

Maybe the good think with QBO will be its easterly phase next winter,if its few months behind 2017/18,then it wont reverse to positive like last winter at 1hPa and we will also be coming of solar minimum

Thanks TI, I understood that completely! Merry Christmas!

I think the only white-out will be if i drop a can of emulsion whilst decorating merry xmas everyone.

We had a good storm in cowbridge vale of glamorgan with hail at around 7ish this morning. 1cm hail created a temporary thin covering over the ground. About 7 flashes and close bangs of thunder with gusty winds. Lasted about 30 mins. That was our brief white Christmas lol. Have a good one all

Grim stuff. Wet or drizzly, varying degrees (pardon the pun) of mild and frost/fog free, let alone snow free. High pressure looking stable to the south, PV looking comfy in Greenland. Early October conditions Merry Xmas from the weather gods! Only 1 or 2 cold January's (IMBY) from 1988 onwards and now the first half of next month is being modelled in a way that gives us another insult of a 'winter' spell. I might need to find another winter hobby! Merry Christmas to everyone and have a great 2020 whatever the weather

Merry Christmas to all European followers from mild Slovakia.Short cold snap on the way here from 26 to 30.12 and then our friend high pressure returns

Well, it's a dull but dry Christmas Eve up here and looks to stay that way for the next few days. Hope you all have a great Christmas wherever you are! ❄❄

morning all i think i have a few days off model watching ex the gfs i think we might need an a boat if after xmas the charts look horrible lets hope they jump back to at the moment we need one of these MERRY XMAS

I’d take it any day over what’s on offer over the coming week or more. A frustrating fact is that most of Nov held more wintry promise than where we are right now. At least we had a jet stream running well south for weeks on end.

Arrived in Schladming this afternoon, after a long and often very wet drive. Drove through rain most of the way from Southern England yesterday, through France Belgium and Luxembourg into Germany, then down into Austria today. Still raining even now in Schladming, which looks OK on the slopes higher up, but certainly thin white streak through the trees and meadows lower down. Will hopefully get up onto the slopes tomorrow for a better look but think I'll be downloading on the gondola rather than skiing down. Photos will of course follow.

Enjoyed a great walk from Leven to Pittenweem along the Fife Coastal path yesterday. No wind and decent spells of sun made for pleasant conditions! Pleasant again today in St Andrews, currently 8c/6c in a westerly breeze.