Jump to content
Problems logging in? ×
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Leaderboard

Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation on 09/12/19 in all areas

  1. Definite signs of a change back end of week 2 into week 3. Enhanced easterlies / weakened westerlies showing up around the Dateline. This will drop angular momentum budgets and manifest in more of a wave 2 pattern across the hemisphere. Last few GFS ops have depicted a shift to more anticyclonic conditions for NW Europe, as have GEFS means. Also worth noting stratospheric winds have dropped across the Equatorial Region in last day or two. Signs of transition to East phase during January I suspect.
    39 points
  2. Snow! - 2 consecutive runs - this time further South as well - a slither of -6c involved.
    19 points
  3. The 500 mb anomaly charts, yes I know some of you do not like them. Anyway they show what it says on the tin but they do also show a 'mean' of what the 500 mb contour flow is predicted to be 6-10 days and with NOAA out to 14 days. It is less complex trying to predict how things may turn out on these time scales at 500 mb than at the surface. So what do they suggest? ECMWF-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Much as they both have for a number of days now, some kind of flow from S of West on this morning's charts This is a bit of a change froma week ago when the flow was shown as N of West. The constant is their view that troughing and unsettled is the theme rather than a settled one with any upper high close by. NOAA is not that different either a week ago or last evening and its 8-14 day chart continues with a flow off the Atlantic , somewhat less strong than the 6-10 charts show, especially in the north. They are of course 'mean' charts so day to day there can be variations but the overall pattern will be similar. Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV I honestly cannot see any major change in pattern or wavelength for the coming 7-12 days at least. Possibly as the predicted decrease in the flow in the north may allow heights to try and build along with a rise in surface pressure in the longer term, 10-14 days poerhaps? This would mean less in the way of gales in the NW. Temperatures at the surface, with mainly Pm type air then average to below, so some snow on hills from about the Peak District north with a possibility of brief snowfall further south ahead of frontal systems. But no real sign to me of any lasting cold. Do feel free to tell me different, it is only my attempt at a broad brush treatment using 500 mb predictions.
    18 points
  4. I'm looking for positives because unlike some, I am by no means convinced that it is all doom and gloom here. I think it is easy to put the long range models, some comments on twitter, and recent det runs together to give a false prospectus of the winter weather to come. Until every det run and most of the ensembles show a raging trop vortex over Greenland, there is a possibility of something snowy showing up at quite short range in the current set up. We will see...
    15 points
  5. Lots of talk about eurotrash highs tonight. If your a geeky as I am and run the archive charts of past cold and snowy spells it's worth noting how many times a cold/snowy spell and even Scandi highs are the result of a Euro trash high migrating to a more favourable locale..
    15 points
  6. I'm a little surprised about some of the comments on the ECM day 10 chart, it is a good chart, the problem is it is FI. It shows WAA about to push into the heart Arctic with an already disrupted PV. The pattern could be overrun and flatten but with a Southerly tacking jet and on that particular chart I don't think so. Still it is FI so won't over analyse. Below are the last 3 00z runs for Dec 15th. 1. Check the progression of the trough digging SE through central Europe. 2. Note the Atlantic trough is held out further West each time. 3.Note the improving Arctic profile This is all evidence of the Atlantic slowing which can allow for more amplification in the pattern. Okay all that said, we are still a long way from cold blocking pattern. I don't want to mislead newbies, but if you want cold weather patterns or at least a slackening of the zonal flow then these are positive signs. Time-frames are difficult. In a previous post I said the period from 16th to 19th was where to watch for changes in the output from the relentless zonal flow they and been showing and I think that is till about right. That doesn't mean we will have blocking in place by then, it just means we may see the output moving away from the very zonal flow and currently that seems to be the case. Now it is a case of hoping those signals continue strengthen as being FI they can easily be swept away.
    15 points
  7. Its not all doom and gloom in here that some might want you to believe a few random ens at random times few ridges in play..
    15 points
  8. Afternoon - Crimbo period looking interesting - but at this stage a mix of all the right reasons as well as all wrong reasons! Anyway UKMO 96 looks interesting >> Possibly some wintryness associated with the back edge !
    13 points
  9. Looks like it. Exact positioning - to east or west of UK up for grabs.
    12 points
  10. Based on a lifetime of weather watching and 15 yrs on Netweather, this is a faintly ridiculous post.
    12 points
  11. Please remember the NAO is not a predictor, it simply tells how the surface pressure in between north of 60 north and around 40 north is being predicted by the models.
    11 points
  12. Clutching at straws here, but Ive dug out a few deep FI 12z ensembles that show at least some kind of cold shot, and a couple that show some deep cold to the NE. If we haven't got hope, what else have we got! If it means waiting till the new year, so be it... Sooner or later we will strike gold... And anyone feeling a little negative and without hope right now.... Read the daily express big story.... Snowmaggedon is a coming....
    10 points
  13. Absolutely, this is what last years prediction for Christmas day on this day(9th) forcasted a potent northerly when in fact we got a mild southerly.
    10 points
  14. It's fair to say that the 'smart money' ought to go on the PFJ being pushed away northward, as we approach the Festive Period, IMO; signs for anything properly cold are fading all the while: That said, I'd much prefer very mild and bright days to a run of seemingly-endless anticyclonic gloom, the like of which we experienced, just post Xmas, last year... So enjoy whatever snow you get, these coming few days?
    9 points
  15. Momentum certainly opening doors that previously looked closed!! There are ample angles for possible-much more 'favourable exactions'.. With some harmonic, sync...and luck anything remains possible with given synoptics.... And that pv-remains a desperate looking creature!
    9 points
  16. Warm air advection, you need it directed poleward ideally if you want to disrupt the polar vortex so not going to be perfect on this run, when it gets right into the polar vortex it can if its very potent split the vortex not just in the troposhere but the lower part of the stratosphere as well disrupting the zonal flow. Its better when there is another bout from the pacific as well as our side of the pole - that is called Wave 2 - ie - 2 waves - the number of areas of high heights gaining lattitude. Pressure on the vortex here - squeezed from both sides led to what was to follow.
    9 points
  17. 18z Christmas eve Highs of around 3-4c & winds in the East Nice. ( end of the run similar to 2012 ? East winds & very cold mainly dry )
    8 points
  18. The gefs not looking too bad,maybe a short warm up but then a return towards around average later next week. These for C.England. Later frames pushing any ridging away to the east.It still looks a mobile pattern,maybe not so strongly but with the mean jet still on a southerly track no sign of blowtorch south westerlies as yet. Still a tendency to Euro.troughing.
    8 points
  19. 8 points
  20. If Gavin P was a weather forecaster there’d be no time left for anything else on TV
    8 points
  21. Thankfully as we all know, a single chosen frame at Day 13 won't verify as shown. There's so many changes and fluidity in the mid term run on run that anything at day 13 is barely worth speaking about at the moment. Not to mention that there is a week of weather upcoming that has the potential to throw up surprises with tweaks here and there, it'd be daft to solely focus on a chart at day 13
    8 points
  22. Between t120-168 the gfs amplifies the subtropical zones thus 'trapping' the upper trough over the UK. All resulting in a continuation of unsettled weather over the latter and Europe swamped by WAA Edit What happens next can only be viewed after the watershed
    7 points
  23. Yes..but there's some clockwork to unwind b4 we get to this...and as-again...any macro movement of cells/placement.. In 2/3 days time these synoptic...could look very alien... So definitely some very intriguing watching to come.
    7 points
  24. Looking through the GEFS 0z there is some hope for coldies on the cusp of christmas, it's NOT the form horse by any means but so what!!..it's a possibility!!!!❄
    7 points
  25. Blocking solutions for post 20th December are on the increase. A few days ago only a few cluster members showed northern heights - a couple of days ago this had increased to a cluster of around 20% showing the trend....and now we are here: A definite signal for heights to re emerge is building. Of course it wont automatically create a dryer spell - there is still a strong cyclonic signal over the UK and no reversal of the pattern in sight yet - but it should at least keep things on the cool side and high ground may see some wintry conditions in the run up to Xmas. Personally I'm hoping for blocking to quiet things down a bit - some frost in Xmas week would be good for southern England (we had a couple of decent ones as the blocked end of Nov came to an end!) but no certainty on exactly how the trough may evolve and whether blocking can extend substantive influence over parts of the UK or not. If we are unlucky the trough drops anchor over the UK as heights cut it off, and we end up with a lot of drizzle and cloud.... In the longer term it should provide the context for the switch to a wave 2 assault on the vortex that some of us have been banging on about for eons now. Wave 2 started the season, then wave 1 which has pushed the vortex over to the Siberian side currently, and then wave 2 as the next phase later in the month. Cumulative impacts all good over time. For what it's worth I stuck Jan 31st down on a twitter poll as the date for SSW reversal this season and note that a number of other strat junkies on twitter have also gone for late Jan. Interesting to read that the current +EAMT has become a pretty sustained event, and that the Aleutian low is set to pump up again soon. None of this guarantees anything and an SSW is never a gimme - but the early season intrigue continues and no reason yet to be gloomy. Remember - we are currently riding out the westerly atlantic phase which we knew was coming….
    7 points
  26. Mega showers today which merged into about an hour of torrential rain just as me and Ms HC were heading out for our constitutional. Our waterproofs were properly tested and passed flying colours, but I won't tell you what make they are. No advertising thank you.
    7 points
  27. Lots of weather in the days ahead, bit of everything, heavy rain,strong winds, wintry precipitation for the north possibly some snow for low levels at times, frost as well. All very standard for mid December. As we approach the run up to christmas (17th-20th), models suggesting atlantic coming unstuck against a building of euro heights, which would bring a NW-SE split, and milder air from the south/south west. Where we then go who knows, but there are signs these heights could build quite substantively towards and through the UK, and might settle into a position to bring some cold anticyclonic frosty conditions just as head into christmas proper.
    6 points
  28. Turning attention away from the mid range, what about this week? Precipitation from the EURO4 up to T54, as with all Meteociel precipitation charts, white hatches mean snow!!
    6 points
  29. Well, at least the GFS 12Z operational isn't out on its own. So perhaps a sign of better things to come?
    6 points
  30. Quietly happy with the 00z suite. Relatively speaking, decent enough for now. Small steps to dropping energy into Europe and away from building a solid EU high.
    6 points
  31. Morning all Lovely day ahead with plenty of sunshine - lots of wintry showers up North currently. Wild last thirty six hours or so here - Saturday night/Sunday was horrendous out on the Firth of Clyde as per my last post. Sad news being reported. Tomorrow looks another stormy day with 60 mph wind gusts expected around these parts. Very windy day for many of us. Have a good day everyone.
    6 points
  32. It might stand for Waiting (for) Arctic Air. A late autumn and winter phenomenon suffered by Internet weather watchers of a cold persuasion where we cling to any straw and cold-weather hope that weather computers offer. Usually resulting in disappointment, mild depression and an urge to relocate to Canada An example of this is me thinking that the UKMO looks pretty good this morning. But is likely to result in being brought back to reality inside 24 hours or less with subsequent runs looking hopeless
    6 points
  33. There should be little reason for despair. It's the first week of December and the weather is extremely lively. If it's only snow that floats your boat there's some of that in the mix this week. The more serious point is that mobility is much better than a stagnant dirty high. And there's some FI eye candy appearing in the ensembles too
    6 points
  34. UKMO giving a little interest this morning with decent Arctic heights and Russian high ridging into far East of Scandi. Still away from a cold block but at least it is a brick or two in the zonal mixer.
    6 points
  35. The gfs still toying with rapid cyclogenisis at the end of the week
    5 points
  36. After today's respite things go downhill by the morning as the next low comes in. T24 hr fax for 06 hrs tomorrow and ukv charts for tomorrow evening show the active fronts approaching and the rain and wind connected as they cross the country-note the sharp wind sheer along the cold front.
    5 points
  37. Time to dig out the garden furniture for Christmas?! I don’t know at this rate, pictures of sunshine and beaches on Christmas cards will be more appropriate than snowy scenes!
    5 points
  38. The enigma as to why I receive different model outputs to many in the forum remains unresolved.The latest thinking is perhaps interference from Russia?.
    5 points
  39. Went eerily calm after the mayhem of the weekend. Miserable a easy way to sum it up but it's a nice start to the week..............at least (suspect it won't last)
    5 points
  40. GFS 06Z Friday looking very "interesting" Cabin up - Pennine Blizzards T+90 is as far as i'm going #sensible
    5 points
  41. The salient points of the ext EPS mean anomaly this morning High cell over the Arctic adjacent the TPV northern Canada Trough extension from the latter into the NW Atlantic beneath the ridge into eastern Greenland which is now just about an extension of the impressive build of heights over Europe. This would still indicate unsettled but perhaps a more NW/SE split with Europe becoming quite toasty
    5 points
  42. Yes, that is what we are looking for, but we need the background signals to promote a tropical wave push and from what the experts are saying, the above time frame maybe too early. The current NH profile is of a HP cell train circulating the lower lats meaning a mobile picture as seen from the run: Any upstream trough is cut through by the strong jet. The tPV not showing any signs of coupling with a nascent strengthening sPV and the tPV remains up to D10 primed for any wave activity. That is when those wedges become conduits for high-lat blocking. The GFS keeps the Arctic wedge right out into FI; Many questions; when will the coupling of the PV's happen, will we return to the two UK sector waves (euro/Azores, UK cold killer) and when will the Pacific wave re-establish (will dismantle the Atlantic trough scenario)? I think from past experience waiting for an SSW is a curse on model watching as it raises expectations too much, with still much to understand in that regard. If we are honest, it looks pretty dire for cold/snow UK wise for the week 2(+) after the bits and pieces we get this week in favoured locations. FWIW CFSv2 forecast at times Europe to be 5c above average in the coming weeks (https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1203794488176627717?s=19). Thankfully as others have said, it can flip from warm to cold quickly.
    5 points
  43. This place is hard work when the output is hard going T120 and t144 for all 3. Fairly evident why we have a strong flow from west to east, sometimes nw/se but mobile. We have had worse looking nh profiles in winters gone but at the moment it’s not great. ‘However things change and we keep looking to see if and when this happens. In the mean time preferably no more willy waving competitions would be good.
    5 points
  44. Good point crewe, but next winter!!! Good lord we are only a week into this one, and my stress levels are maxed out.... Without hoping for better news next year. Next year... The year after... I'm sure someone will come along to say.... Things still not in our favour... Solar minimum!!! At this rate we are gonna need a no sun at all to give us a proper cold snap.
    5 points
×
×
  • Create New...