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Seriously? I have been on this thread for ten years and with all due respect to @Glacier Point he has called it wrong many times. (As I’m sure he would admit) Please revert back to his posts from January when he was suckered into the big wintry outlook that the teleconnections and Met Office were pointing to. (He vanished soon after) What became of that? Zero wintry conditions and a blazing hot end to February - all time temperature record smashed in Scotland) This is not a personal attack as I always look forward to his posts but let’s not talk utter nonsense regarding untouchable forecasts from people. If members are going to throw statements like that about a response is merited. Plus @feb1991blizzard has more mood swings and ups and downs than my 22 months old toddler. (No offence mate) On a side note there is good wintry/snowy potential for Northern parts next week and parts of the UK are currently running below average temperatures for December so far (mean temperatures) - not a bad start to Winter. If people are going to make sweeping statements writing off Winter months at least state which area/country for? UK and Ireland is a big place with plenty of regional differences.

Are we really writing-off the whole of December and January, on the basis of one post from one poster---or am I going stark raving mad?!

On current evidence not enough. Wavebreaks timed for around 10th and 21st are the point of interest. Issues here are that the displacement of the SPV favours Arctic outbreaks across North America first, which is likely to fire up the northern arm of the jet until we get sufficient blocking structures in place to the north. We also have a base state that is devoid of strong leading (other than mute signal from Indian Ocean Dipole) and lacking any real impetus for change other than intraseasonal peturbations as westerly inertia is added and removed from the sub-tropical flows. On balance, whilst it's not what snow lovers want, happy with the start to winter being cyclonic in nature across much of Europe and rather average temps if nothing else it helps to temper expectations which may become even more of an issue as we head into (an even more cyclonic) January.

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Morning All- So the emphasis swings towards a stormy pattern - no good for southern UK however for those in the North & indeed NI ( @Sperrin ) This can still be a snowy one given the angle of the jet tracking at a slightly amplified angle. The key is still getting the trough East of the Uk & if it does then theres some decent cold bottled up to the North. Low heights / steep lapse rates & -6c air can be great ingredients for these regions at this time of year Enjoy

Game on again!!!!

If you mean straight west to east then I invite you to back away from your moment of Johnson-esque self congratulation. You're not spot on. It isn't 'flat as a pancake'. The cold zonal meridionality from Sunday onwards has a lot of waves in it with intense north-westerly incursions bringing snow over the north and probably into the Midlands. Both GFS and ECM clearly show this.

To my eye, the 12z ensembles show a fair amount of colder options, and definitely not pointing to a full zonal onslaught.... Personally I still feel this a better situation than this time last year!! And anybody trying to make a call on January, and worse still... February.... Forget it,whatever your credentials! It's just not scientifically possible. So for next week, unsettled conditions for sure... Snow likely up North.... Elsewhere... Don't rule it out! These things will crop up at very short notice, and the models won't have a take on it at this stage.

Well, after last year's fiasco, I would have thought the -- albeit frightening -- realisation that 'every other long range Professional forecaster' can still get things wrong, might have started to sink in by now. And, that LRFers are human too...? But I guess not!

Remember folks this is the model thread. Not for discussing last winter or indeed any previous. Meanwhile here is the fax for next Monday. Some snow perhaps at altitude in places, even by then.

Some crazy ENS around 192-204

Today's runs promise some very mobile and changeable conditions milder at first and looking colder later next week with a higher chance of snowfall for some up north. Overall though it is difficult to maintain anything other than brief cold shots in such a pattern.Any deeper cold seems held above 60N for much of the time,only slipping south briefly in the rear of passing lows before the next warm front heads in. The only bright note i could end on is that with cold air so close to the north a little extra ridging in the Atlantic would work wonders for snow chances more widely but that's a hope rather than an expectation currently.

Well hello there Mrs. -10 upper, you weren't really supposed to be invited to the party?!

To be fair, it's GP, he's basically the king of sub-seasonal weather forecasting & mid-long range teleconnections. If Dave from Kent was writing off the first part of winter then the response would be uncalled for.

Watch for the link..@Pacific pump...@Greenland !!!.@possibly. I refrained from analysis last night..and with reason. The squeeze on the tpv..and continued alliance of the Pacific punch...is notable in syphon of the Canadian/Alaskan lobe...today's the turn day !!!

Tell you what though you love to see it...12th and 13th December potentially looking snowy. That is going to feel raw! (If it becomes reality)

The intense amplification over North America with the Arctic plunge down the eastern half initiates downstream ridging of the subtropical high which simultaneously pumps up the jet.

I can't read that without thinking of Yoda No need for anyone to despair. The GFS is good, plenty of amplification. The ensembles are a very mixed bag but then there's so much scatter from as early as T144 that it says to me it's one of those moments when the models aren't sure. This comes through with the ECM which today seems intent on flattening everything. UKMO incl fax seem okay - the fax especially. Ground conditions Sunday through Friday next week look 'grim.' Where it does snow there may be some piling snow in strong winds and elsewhere sleet and some penetrating cold (GFS). I've grown to rather enjoy cold meridional conditions. Give me that any day than a month's dirty high pressure. We're coming into this with a succession of cold months too.

Hello, Hello - little acorns and all that......

Morning. What's more noticeable with this gfs update is the handling of the secondary area of low pressure which is modelled to sweep southeast across the UK through Sunday night into Monday behind Saturday nights frontal system. Its Shown deeper in this update with a tighter pressure gradient ie lines closer together with a period of gales across much of the UK. Zoomed out view of wind gusts. Red is 50+mph. The Gfs showed this a couple of days ago but as a single fairly straightforward area of low pressure crossing the UK but now modelled to be two low pressure systems rotating in a broader flow around each other which often adds more uncertainty to how strong the two of these will be and whether one is likely to be absorbed by the more dominant low the above scenario is a plausible outcome but a weaker system becoming mostly absorbed is possible too but less likely with a strong jet stream overriding it. Wind gust forecast Sunday night / Monday. Uncertainty with regards to the precise wind strengths but Worth watching. The Gem similar for sunday's system. Also this morning's update from the Gem for tuesday seems to move towards what the Gfs showed a couple of days ago with a frontal system moving through the UK with a period of snow for parts of northern England and Scotland so a little uncertainty here still as to be expected 5 days out. The jet stream becomes more aligned straight across the Atlantic as next week progresses and continuing strong too with the potential for further deep areas of low pressure later in the week but too far out for any more detail regarding that.. But not particularly mild as the jet would be over or just to the south of us. Tuesday.. Saturday 14th.. Synoptic pattern shows this well for next week too..

I also looked at 10th of Dec....the mild sector lasts for about 14 hrs before it’s shunted away by pM air again. To the storm around election day....peak energy timing with Full Moon modulation....so I’m expecting severe gales/disruptive weather to verify around that period. I’m feeling more optimistic today re decent cold shots (with south to join in, t’up north its banked imo), maybe be come an go....but to come again....and again. BFTP

Yes all coming along nicely and the latest ensembles for here are actually an upgrade compare to yesterdays 12z again ice day potential too Cool / cold zonality setups are usually a gamble but get the right alignment of lower pressure and colder air and a snowy jackpot can be hit Just wondering also if the ramping up of the PV will be due to the feedback of the increase in zonal winds before the gradual decline after and still the likelihood of the displacement of the PV later in the month toward Scandinavia. Also the activity in the Indian ocean and also Pacific likely to cause further chopping and changing within the models I would think.

That was a fun cycle home! A serious head wind, lashing rain and some serious gusts! Brutal! Plenty of tree debris along the Water of Leith. If nothing else it proved I'm getting fitter

Yep. This at day 10 on the ecm.

? Mods he said Bartlett ..can he banned for a month please ? It wouldn’t take much to bring all the Uk in on the action though. Alternatively (for those who are able) jump on a train or take a drive up north? That’s what I’ll Be doing...and this is where I’ll be at Christmas - Cold zonal is great for the Alps!

Yep, good cold hunt.....that will feel and is biting cold....and that ain’t snow just for Ben Nevis’ peak either BFTP

Richard, good spot....I’m beginning to see upgrades re-appear. That storm with -10c 850s sweeping in behind....with storm force winds.....perishing. I was beginning to think that as per my fears in my winter outlook that pM and aM shots don’t always cut the mustard for the south. Well Scotland NI and Northern England are in for potential serious winter weather.....the goalposts are beginning to shunt south again BFTP

Morning all Complex outlook this morning regarding potential snow events across the UK and Ireland (as always) - Scotland and Northern England look primed for some knife edge marginal snowfall events (significant over higher hills/mountains I would imagine) - beginning middle/end of next week. (Other parts of the UK and Ireland in the mix also) GFS ECM Upper 850’s of -4 to -8 across many parts of the UK and Ireland through most of the runs and with plenty of precipitation about. Certainly the risk is there from all the above charts/information for a spell of wintry conditions - whether that be on low ground or above 300 meters...who knows until the time arrives? My glass remains half full as always. Have a great day everyone!

The North Atlantic 300mb wind field and surface analysis for midnight The weakening front has brought more cloud to central and southern areas but in the clearer patches still some fog around but once this clears not a bad day with sunny intervals. But further north the frequent heavy showers will soon give way to more persistent rain as the next complex frontal system sweeps in from the west accompanied by an increasingly strong surface wind Tonight the rain, with heavy pulses, will persist over western Scotland and move further south over north west England whilst cloudy with the odd spot of drizzle further south. Generally windy but milder than of late The system will clear to the east and merge with the trough to the north on Friday so a day of sunshine and heavy showers, particularly in the west, where they may coalesce courtesy of a trough embedded in the flow. Could turn a tad colder in the far north behind the trailing occlusion, Still quite windy The showers fizzle out to a great extent over Friday night and Saturday will be not a bad day thanks to a transient ridge. But out to the west some explosive cyclogenisis has taken place near the left exit of the jet and rain from fronts associated with this will encroach during Saturday evening The rain soon clears to the east resulting in Sunday being a very windy day with frequent heavy showers but the analysis has become quite complex as the latest trough merges with the one to the north (again) and a ridge starts to build to the north west The new trough re-orientates and moves east over Sunday night and by Monday the surface wind has veered northerly initiating some wintry showers in the north but in particular some heavy showers down the North Sea coasts where it will be quite windy

not always the case at all trust me I am as desperate for snow as anyone (we dont all live on high ground up here ), here is my total snowfall for the WHOLE of last winter I know that areas further south got more snow than here last winter and some areas didn't get any at all. It was one of the worst I can remember for lack of snow here so that is the first thing on my winter wishlist to get more than that this winter which possibly with some luck next week I might have a chance

Tbh I don’t no whether it’s just me but I’m actually looking forward to some lively weather again weather it’s wind rain sleet or even s**w, I get kind of bored of this still nothing stuff, I no flooding and that is really bad but I just find this calm stuff a tad boring

The Gfs and Gem in good agreement on the deep low for Sunday night into Monday.. Gem.. Wind gust chart from the Gfs.. A vigorous system with widespread gales perhaps severe gales. Details not nailed on ofcourse. Stil uncertainty in regards to how this low interacts with the another low centre as I explained this morning. The GFS overview of this system.. Note these are peak wind gusts. Here's the jet stream for the same time period once again A strong jet stream in the vicinity and over the uk aiding in development of this system. Gem.. This system is definitely one to keep a very close eye on especially with quite saturated ground still in places and the strongest gusts perhaps from the Northwest which is more uncommon than your typical west or south-westerly

@Mr Frost funny as f**k in the mad house..

Thanks to GP for that reply, right - that at least puts the record straight now, we have heard it from the horses mouth - over to February then!!

Not too encouraged by what seems to be the trend ..... can’t get the trough to dive south without another pulse of the Azores ridge to follow - hence the colder uppers are continually removed and can’t establish for any length of time ..... over time looks like euro heights may become more established aswell ... enough uncertainty not to be too downhearted for coldies but certainly not headed where they may have hoped with any confidence for third week Dec

Nasty. Cloudy, breezy and fairly mild this morning at 7c. A cool down next week looks likely, beyond that who knows. These days I only glance at the models beyond 5 days. I feel much healthier for it!

All GFS runs are like a dog with a bone at the moment with regards to a risk of snowfall across parts of the UK and Ireland next week. (midweek onwards especially - not solely for high ground) I am leaving it at that...enough model/chart viewing for one day! Over to you @Paul Faulkner to fill us all in with the remaining model discussion on this run.

The op was on the warmer side of the pack with tonight's mean. And there are still a fair few chilly options on that mean... I don't believe in putting a fur coat and lipstick on a pig, but I've seen worse.. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see a much rosier outlook in the next few days... Let the roller coaster begin.

Afternoon all Gusting between 40mph to 45mph - making a wee roar but more like a fart in a teacup. (I would class anything over 55mph as decent from an extreme weather enthusiast view ) Bit choppy on the water and heavy rain - it’s actually quite nice to hear the rain hitting off the windows - not had much of that in recent times. Later next week still looking interesting from a wintry/snowy perspective - imagine places over 300 meters are going to get quite a dump! (Low levels who knows but guys like @Ravelin @bigsnow @Northern Strath will probably see snowfall before any of the rest of us as usual!) Have a good night!

Yes this looks a tad more interesting - lots more could happen with this

Polling Low

Nope, don't agree m8.. Later Dec and Jan/Feb still in play although i would agree up to the last third of Dec looks a write off.. Higher routes of Oldham at 400m plus will be plastered next week, we should head up there..

I’m defo not, anything beyond day 10-15 could happen !! I’m sure in some U.K. severe winter spells everything was against it happening, then it did .

No. Every other long range Professional forecaster says much the same.

I posted this for a while last winter a graph with several weather models showing the midday temps for London over the next 10 days it gives you a view on where each model stands and also an overall average. For the next few days temps will be around 9c to 10c falling slightly in a weeks time next Thursday and into the weekend with temps around 6c to 7c.

Feb... I wouldn't expect there to be...it mimics/momentum lag... It's kiss chase.... But who's gonna end up with lipstick...or egg on there bonce... .. I'm confident in my assumption..and I'll either stand...or die by em.. Over to the afternoon/evening raws

Don't be fooled by the pressure shown there - it isn't a true Greenland high, just as it isn't in a weeks time: It might be showing 1035mb, but 500mb heights are far too low. Just down to the topography of Greenland sadly. This is a 100% proper rip-snorter of a GH:

You have to laugh a bit though - it’s the same people whinging in this thread every year. (No matter what the season) I know the above is the point of this thread but they then carry that negative vibe elsewhere on the forum. It does not seem to matter which weather preference they have - always down in the dumps and looking to be the biggest vibe assassins/buzz killingtons on the threads. Is it a location thing that makes certain folk more prone to moaning about weather they receive? Is it due to previous disappointments from believing charts are going to become reality from 10 days away? Are certain people just born pessimistic? Is it because the UK and Ireland climate is very mundane/pretty non eventful all year round? Personally I enjoy the chase in all seasons whether that be for snow, thunderstorms or heat but I never get downbeat or throw my toys out the pram If it does not deliver what the charts/models/outlooks show. Cheer up folks and have a good day.

Blimey - you got a webcam in my sitting room?! Hehe - I was just toying with taking up Mr Frosts promise of him eating a sledge if all of us don’t see a snowflake this year. Some in this forum have no idea how lucky they are not to live in Somerset...... Next week will certainly be interesting, just to see the impacts of the Pacific jet extension on the back of +EAMT and witness its ability to spike the pattern around the hemisphere. The truth of the end of next week is too far off to bin entirely as a cold snap because the magnitude of the wave breaking that will accompany the jet surge is open to interpretation and I would imagine the models will struggle to get a precise handle on how that surge will pan out. Bear in mind it hasn’t even reached the west coast of the US yet. The bigger question really is what happens when that surge passes. I posted optimistically that a block might form with sufficient longevity to carry through to later in December. But I don’t think in truth this is the most likely outcome. The MJO is not positioned favourably yet, and from pirated tweets I’ve seen today it would appear any rise in GLAAM has slowed to a neutral crawl. In blunt terms this means that support for sub tropical high pressure will increase, and in turn that means less support for a -NAO pattern. This was my gut feeling going into December - the spike in torque adds some spice to the short term, but it doesn’t change the overall direction in the first half to two thirds of the month. Much still hangs on the extent to which tropical convection can emerge from phase 6 and get to the maritimes, the strength of that convection and the condition of the vortex in the context of QBO progression. I am an avid reader - comes with my profession - and I can tell you that opinions on this are divided across the net. I painted two distinct pathways for winter in my forecast because the junction represented by the potential pathways at the end of December was pretty clear, but genuinely I think the direction of travel at that point hangs in the balance. The snowper in me wants the amplified, Nino attractor pathway smoothed by a transition to an eQBO and a vortex in collapse; the realist in me also sees the distinct possibility of vortex recovery, delayed QBO transition and an MJO struggling for effect in the context of a standing wave in MJO phase 2 that helps prevent helpful impacts in the extra tropics - helpful if you want cold that is. A kind of half way house blend is obviously a compromise solution. Don’t need charts tonight. For now enjoy a rollercoaster ride into next week and NWP output that I suspect will catch the eye again before the impacts of jet resurgence fades, and in the meantime perhaps we can get some evidence emerge as to how the run in to Xmas may develop vv the tropical signal and vortex as drivers. It’s only Dec 4. Plenty of time for multiple rollercoaster rides....

Been busy today, caught up, and then pub run T240: If it was my pub GFS would be barred! Tempted to give up this hobby, not because of the weather, not even because of the models, but because of the pessimism...I cannot see the point of it. We won't see...