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Trop Vortex pretty much getting savaged wherever u look...

Interesting winteroverview chart for the middle of next week, especially for much of Western Europe including a great swathe of the Alpine Regions. This mornings preliminary snow portal forecasting results show a top up total of 75cm in our location by this time next week. Currently we have 40 cm of thick rather heavy snow cover. The more accurate results from the fine mesh model are predicted about 24 hours prior to a snow event, so will have to wait for the day to day details on this forthcoming ( major snow event ) Obviously the day to day synoptic details can change , even with-in a small time scale of less than 102 hours. However, most main models showing a turbulent rather wintry picture for many , including The British Isles . Just for a bit of interest this morning a warm from is affecting parts of Southern Sweden and Finland and producing a amazing temp differential of 35C between the far south of the region and the far North. Will post some picture from the village later, where snow cover is now knee deep ! C

According to the GEFS 0z..snow could be coming to a lamp post near you next week!!❄

While this is happening - ye olde vortex aint a happy chappy

GFS 00z T+126 forum meltdown

It's great to see all the gang back on the strat thread - I did nag @chionomaniac to join in the fun. @Recretosgreat blog on Severe EU and always love seeing what data crunching . RAM abusing graphics are up next. @zdlawrence prettty much a privilege to have you here Zac, your website is a real benchmark for Strat monitoring after years of peering at the Berlin charts. I think the testament is that even a year on the 3D work is catching the attention of esteemed pros such as Mike Ventrice. I loved the fact that #stratpants appeared this season when last year we had saw the same split troosers ( Scottish for Jeans / Trousers / etc). Best contribute with some commentary too other than say what a great season ahead, am personally loving Novembers now - it's the chase of the what happens next as much as the will it won't it herald negative AO/NAO or a decent winter.. By that I mean the down-welling question and the concentration of minds on this. Stop and reflect for a moment on how we were only 5 years ago working out precursors or Displacement / Split Dynamics.. Loving this ! Gnarly old vortex aint enjoying the Anticyclonic stuff happening right now.. can't do what it wants... Get your crayons out... Not a forecast there are two other years in the mix for Solar QBO similarity...however 95 worth a look..

Good afternoon peeps how are you all hope everyone is well. It was a cold start here in Walthamstow East London this morning with even some fog and frost and now the cloud is covering the sky again heralding the next batch of rain due this afternoon. I must say watching the models recently has been exciting especially at this time of year. I have a gut feeling that we are in a good position us coldies taking the recent track of weather systems. The general normal west to east pattern of our weather fronts has been different. Instead we are finding a lot of low pressure diving southeast. Also the Azores slug had stayed in the far southwest, which is why more low pressure has been to the south of us. The latest model data seems to indicate no change in this pattern and my interest will be more of a focus to the north to see how high pressure develops and where it sits and also how much cold air there is. The unsettled theme is set to continue with more wet weather and at times drier periods with fog and frost. The higher ground in some parts further north will be lucky to see some white stuff. However later on we may se another change this week. As a weather front is set to clear on Wednesday night through Thursday, behind it we will be pulling in north Easterly or Easterly element. The big question here is will the air behind be cold enough to turn the rain into something wintry before it clears. We don't know that, the models are changing on a daily basis and as pointed out by some others today there is a very cold pool air developing over Siberia and Russia. We will have to see how the next few days of model watching pans out, but all in all very interesting developments may be to come. We are only on the 9th of November yet let's sit back and enjoy the ride could it be a winter we have waited for, time will tell. Wishing you all a great Saturday THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND IS UNDERWAY kind regards

Well, looking at the Ecm 0z ensemble mean, it's cold, certainly below average, certainly not mild! it's unsettled / cyclonic and there's certainly a risk of snow for upland areas and perhaps lower levels at times during the week ahead!

Gfs is drawing that deep cold in Siberia closer run by run..

GFS 192 shows an interesting profile with an atlantic ridge ( always important ) locking out the atlantic

Yes no doubt about it this pattern is persistent with the upper trough directed at us.It is very much a watch and wait situation. All the latest forecasts are suggesting a weaker vortex as the month goes on so this should impinge on the 500 hPa pattern as the jet flow reduces. We would then expect more of a blocked pattern but of course how this sets up is the waiting part. In the meantime a rather cold and unsettled outlook remains with lows sliding se against that block to the east. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out by December as it is not often we see a November like this in modeling terms.

Nice cold seasonal ECM 00z all the way to day 10 . And the GEFS are now trending back below average towards the end when yesterday’s were trending above average. Nice

Some ENS at 384, JFF but this is the best set yet I reckon. This one catches the eye , that wouldn’t happen often in Nov.

I was musing for a while that as the Alaskan low becomes established, the Canadian vortex will spit with a little less oomph and that could allow the changes coldies are seeking

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK surface chart A frosty start in many areas this morning accompanied by fog in east Wales and central southern England but heavy rain from the approaching occlusion is already into N. Ireland and about to reach the south west. This will track east > north east through the day, with snow over the high ground in north Wales, and pivot somewhat as it goes thus lingering over the eastern parts of N. Ireland. Fortunately it also means the rain should not reach the areas already badly affected by flooding.Showers following on behind in the south west. A cold and thoroughly miserable day under the rain. The front will fragment and drift south overnight so still some patchy rain with some snow on the high ground around whilst further north clear skies and a morning frost with the odd fog patch The cloud and rain will clear the south coast tomorrow leaving, apart from the odd shower along the north east coast, generally a dry and sunny day but by dusk rain from the next frontal system, associated with a deep low near the tip of Greenland, is encroaching the far west of N. Ireland Over Sunday night and through Monday the Greenland trough moves east courtesy of a very strong westerly jet which hits the buffers of the eastern block which facilitates the movement of the UK trough south east. Whilst this is going on the occlusion mentioned above crosses the country accompanied by a belt of rain followed by heavy showers The alignment of the upper troughs becomes quite complex on Tuesday and the upshot of all of this is a surface low and occlusion over northern Scotland with the country in a brisk north westerly wind resulting in frequent showers in western regions By Wednesday mid Atlantic amplification of the subtropical high, as discussed last evening, results in another system tracking south east as it hitches a ride on a very strong jet so another day of showers in the west, drier in the east, but more persistent rain encroaching the west by early evening.

The GFS output for next Wednesday is very interesting but its eye candy so very unlikely to verify like that.. low pressure moving in the middle of next week bringing heavy rain to many areas particularly the south but shows the centre of circulation moving slowly across southern areas with the rain becoming quite heavy snow for a time then eventually back to rain as milder air comes in from the east.. one thing that it is showing is another very wet period. Its the most wintry scenario for the south and no other model shows it like that. They all show a very wet midweek period though albeit details are different but it's 5 days away so what you would expect. Back to the short term and looking like a very wet day for Wales and parts of the west and south Midlands and southern England with hill snow in places particularly for Wales with that frontal system pushing slowly eastwards then basically grinding to a halt with a centre of circulation developing over the south helping to keep the rainfall intensity going for most of tonight accumulations of 15-30mm being shown in a few locations in the south by the time this clears probably before dawn tomorrow morning. Icon.. Chilly and wet sums things up for next week.. At times.

GFS 06z 14-11-2019 Continues to deliver....... Midnight ppn - lamposts at 1000ft asl?

Pretty much as you were with the GFS 6z ensembles. In fact most of them keep the UK cold! There are also some crackers thrown in!! Its going to be very interesting to see if those long range models hold firm with the milder Wstly theme for December! If next month does decide to keep with the November theme, then it will gradually become that bit colder with time. These slider events would bring an increase in the risk of wintryness! Not worth getting to hung up on events over 3 weeks away though just yet. But me has a sneaky feeling that these models me be wide of the mark, or even start back tracking with time! We will see. So far though, I'm liking the output, and the general direction of travel. So like I said, some encouraging ensembles, and quite a cold op from the ECM! It was actually below the mean, but these colder runs do keep getting flagged up. Enjoy your days if you can folks.

Continued forecasts of the mean zonal winds decreasing at 10 hPa under strong wave 1 activity. Last ECM data also going with the trend down with forecasts mean speeds around 20 m/sec in 10 days or so-almost a 50% reduction. so the attack on the vortex ongoing and the prospect of the SPV getting weaker as we go through November.This a signal for extending a -AO with more gaps in those blues over the pole along with a weaker jet flow.

An Aleutian squeeze

As promised picture of snow in the village. Further to the above post this chart below from UKMO for Tuesday looks like producing some interesting weather in the Alps as that "Warm Med Cyclone " moves north and joins forces with the colder Pm circulation . A strong frontal boundary is bound to develop that is likely send our fine snow mesh model into over drive on Monday. Some of the models showing signs of formation of a Mid- Atlantic Omega Block but not quite getting there as yet to deliver real cold. However, I would say these are great early winter charts showing especially for NW Europe. Hold on to your hats, a great weeks model viewing coming. C

Just about to say we have a little trend developing - ENS will finally have one that will be towards -10c uppers. P4 - go on lad!!

Very cold surface temps into SE corner with max's staying below freezing, with cold uppers not far behind.

A bit more depth to the cold showing up on both the GFS and UKMO upto day 6 so there could be a surprise or two for more elevated areas of the north .

Well, I did extensive research back then, and true 3D simulations of the polar vortex were nowhere to be found. There were images of a 3D polar vortex, but in a 2D (cartoonish) style, and specific to research papers individually. That was the very reason I decided to research this field (3D simulation), and essentially (by my knowledge at least) being among the first (if not the first) to create operational 3D simulations of the polar vortex in 3 (4) dimensions (time) from operational model forecast data and reanalysis data (ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA-2). That was already in 2013 I think, so Mr. Ventrice is almost 6 years late.

^^ Its looks wintry on the face of it - although uppers marginal & the key decider here is that the air will get modified over the long sea track which isn't that cold yet suggests just cold rain- Maybe wintry at elevation...

A decent day on the models again, ECM 12Z keeps us pretty much on the cold side.. The op once again was on the colder side, but overall a slight improvement from the mean. My god i can't remember the last time things remained on the cold side for a lengthy period. 3 or 4 more weeks of this, and perhaps we can start froffing at the mouth! Other than that enjoy yourselves a nice weekend beer!! Go on folks... You deserve it... Model watching can be stressful and thirsty work, if ya get me drift...

That's a great chart knocker - Matt sent it earlier... it's a squeeze but we also have an Atlantic wall of warming for it to squeeze against. For that view the 50hPa run is incredible, complete carnage.

Icon showing a mixture of rain sleet and snow pushing through the far south on Wednesday night into Thursday.. Interesting output but looking at the temperatures shown it would be mostly hill snow with more of a wintry mix at lower levels.

Yes whilst its all academic the 4c is over the SE with the 2c line close to debilt. 0c line further east still. Nice synoptics to see - just another run with no zonal flow ( Like 2012 )

The trend is our friend it seems... The Siberian high looks very strong and there is some very cold air beginning to mass way to our NE... I wouldn't rule out some wintry suprises over the next week or so, esp further north and areas with altitude.

Yep, is this the next chase I wonder. The large Siberian high never gives up, and with a lack of PV fighting from the west in slowly heads our way..Extrême cold well into Scandy on this run.

What is nice to see is that even if Scandi HP doesn’t really develop or take hold there is a set up continually coming through that is rinse repeat with LP systems diving down on a NW/SE axis keeping cold theme....which imo will become more pronounced as we move into winter. A good looking start with Oct not being mild and Nov looking below normal with this cold direction........Dec well below anyone ? BFTP

Some very encouraging signals coming out of the NE, just now: even one the Unnameables has thought to mention the Russian HP, in its latest update...? Get the cold in first -- the building blocks will follow?

And that's a nice cold HP area, up to the NE...Just what we need to see, IMO!

Big fat snowflakes falling in Rhayader at the moment, settling nicely at -0.5.

one element of carnage

Ecm more amplified than ukmo and gfs at 96hr.

There’s a little battle ref the undercut though, that chunk isn’t getting its own way and barrelling through like it does sometimes. LP always in the med - which will be causing flooding as it doesn’t move for 2 weeks huge Siberian high. Very cold in Scandy. They are some good positives going forward.

I think I’ll be surprised if Gloasea atleast doesn’t point to an average December. With the amount of FI blocking into the 4th week of Nov showing in the ENS, it’s hard to see a zonal early Dec anyway.

Indeed Phil... Looks cold across the 00z suite this morning.. Lots of positives when one looks at the bigger picture, still the seasonal models (and the latest BBC monthly)persist with a +NAO signature later in Nov and Dec however. GLOSEA update due early next week so will be fascinating to see if any change in the models outlook. In the meantime zero sign of any mild weather as far as the eye can see. And a rather snowy scene in parts of Wales and Shropshire this morning..

Another set of cold runs this morning!!current temp here is -1❄

How far east the rain, perhaps some snow over the high ground, gets on Wednesday is problematic because of developments near the left exit of the jet so probably best left here for the moment.

Took doggie for a (short) bracing walk in Glen Clova this afternoon. On the way home I noticed from a distance these fingers of low cloud creeping over the Cairn o Mount area.

It is notable that despite that Atlantic low from the mid lats really deepening rapidly as it interacts with the vortex extension, it still disrupts once it reaches the e Atlantic ....

Well, any type of copyright would not be very scientific. Besides, the data is not mine, and also the software is not mine, so its not really possible to copyright just the method, even if I would want to. On a side note, I just noticed that after the last upgrade of the GFS to the dynamical core FV3, the model levels in the output grids got an addition of the 0.4mb level. Not a lot of forecasting power in it, but t will be interesting to see where the "lid" of the warming is. The graphic I made shows the 16-day change in temperature, a zonal mean. The warming is obvious and anomalous, but the core itself is cooling seasonally. There you can see addition of the top level.

The front beginning to pivot

A hard frost this morning, -1C at present, frozen puddles and slippery leaf litter. Nature always provides interesting colour contrasts, this morning an orange sunrise and purple clouds.

Some GEFS members getting closer to proper cold.