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Today's GFS 12Z Operational run is clearly stacked with potential!!! And it's never too early for a ramp:

How anyone can't get excited over this chart, at least the general synoptics, I don't know. Yes, this particular frame would give us a very raw and rainy day. However, look how much high pressure is around, so much potential! We normally see deep low after deep low modelled this time of year. That hemispheric profile is stunning for the time of year.

The 12z ICON finishes like this WOW.

The pick of the ENS , and winter is primed

I agree that we weren’t lucky last year. We got about 85% of the way towards the cold blast the models kept seeing, but the split ended up being a bit too far west, and SSTs in the Atlantic conspired with the very cold air spilling out of America to prevent sub tropical ridging on the back of some solid tropical forcing to create the high lat block. I think it was a very fine balanced thing...and we got close but not close enough to tip that balance in favour of cold. I don’t see our current kind of mobility in November as a bad thing at all. For a start it isn’t conventional mild zonality - the trough over Europe is helping keepthe trajectory of the Atlantic assault quite steep with residual heights to the north remaining in play, and we have heights to the east in the right place to upset the vortex. Over on the other side of the globe the North Pacific ridge is set to topple, and a period of Aleutian Low action will also help fire warmth into the vortex. Later in the season what we need is a block to the north/NW/NE that can cause a reverse flow and bring in continental cold and this is very hard to achieve when the vortex dominates. So all remains good as far as I can see, and anyone hopeful of widespread snow right now is hoping for the near impossible. Perfect Synoptics right now in most places would bring nothing but drab, cold rain....so let’s “enjoy” the current setup that is about as good as it could be to set the vortex up for a fall and create the background conditions that could bring something special when winter proper is here.

It’s also what’s helping force an extended wave 2 impact on the vortex, something which gives us potential benefits down the line. Can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs...

Quite a set of chillier ensembles from the GFS 6Z, a few stonkers in there also. Some even showing heights over Greenland and scandy!! Now that would be every coldies ideal Xmas present!! Much water to flow under the bridge just yet! I still feel that perhaps we are moving away from that Wstly dominated December though! Perhaps colder spells will also be just as prevalent. Could be worse peeps.... A hell of alot worse.

At least there's not much sign of the usual sw'ly zephyrs, the models have more of a wintry look to them than one would expect in early November so I'm happy!

Strat warming not to be ignored..

Snowing down to the higher level roads this morning. Road up to Glenshee just now.

As I also stated in my article on another site, as long as the pattern configuration with the Siberian high/Aleutian low persits, there should be more of this on the way, increasing the potential for a proper SSW by the end of the year. On a seasonal note, I was in a hurry, but managed to make the 10mb temperature anomaly charts for december, from ECM and Glosea5, from October runs. Will be interesting to see the November runs. Its amazing how different they are despite pushing a similar tropospheric agenda. Tho these maps have no practical use in forecasting, it is interesting to see what is the stratospheric idea behind the tropospheric forecast.

The trop..polar vortex is under mash-mode!!=or so some latter frame outs would have it...that pac-ridge..is of relax state...as the eb..n'flow into polar plots...continue there desired synoptics.. Once again...thats some pattern emerging..n-hemisphercaly!!! Let's get it loaded...then look for placement exaction... Then await the spill!!!.....@perhaps.

Lecht ski centre this morning. 0c and snowing.

The 12z ECM mean remains on the cold side! If anything there seems to be more in the way of colder runs than last night.. Long may this colder theme continue. Until the next run....cheers gang....

The continued & increasing disconnect between Strat/Trop is something I'm beginning to get a little excited about We should see Wave 2 attacks begin to ramp up in the next week or two and this subsequently will weaken the vortex from an almost record breaking strength at 10hPa down closer to average and perhaps beyond if GEFS/CFS data is to be believed.

If we ignore the upstream vicissitudes of the North American troughs which promotes Mid Atlantic amplification then the mean GEFS is still moving towards a position previously indicated. But all of this maneuvering is leaking somewhat colder air over the UK

Did anyone order a cross polar flow ! Quite amazing looking ICON . I expect bedlam will break out in here if that’s replicated by the other models tonight .

ref this comment Temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing for many, many days. Are you serious or having a laugh?

How about number 11 for a hemispheric profile!!

Too far off to be particularly confident but we're in no-mans land here where not a lot is happening, which, I guess, is why people are a little despondent. If benign conditions are your thing, with cold nights, frost fog and sunny spells, then this will suit you. Temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing for many, many days.

Ha ha... Here is the final charts from today's GFS 12z to highlight what I meant--- Arctic High----Check Scandi High---- Check Core of PV in Siberia - - -Check Very little in PV in Greenland/Eastern Canada------Check GB & Ireland Conditions - - - - - Benign

EC clusters keep dangling carrots D12 — Scandi High cluster back up to 60% (I usually like to see 70% before calling it a significant trend) - ridge to the NE, trough to the S, should be a good chance of an extended period with an Influence from between NE and SE - but previous potential not quite turning into reality, so still a wait and see situation.

A lot of messing about by the models with last nights downturn for coldies followed by a more positive start today . Its very hard to have much confidence until they settle down . I think we’re in a holding pattern ! There are certainly more things in favour of colder weather but the exact route to that still needs to be resolved .

I'm kinda glad that modern propaganda methods weren't as well developed around the time of the ozone depletion problem. Back then, we had industries claiming economic collapse, that the scientists were biased, then hiring fake experts to write fake reports. They just weren't as effective in seeding the public with their BS. I strongly suspect, was it occurring nowadays, we'd have been much less likely to come to a global agreement. The scary predictions made by scientists at the time would have been met with the same level of public ridicule and dismissal as current climate scientists and activists.

Lovely charts at T291: a traditional late-autumn mixture of rain, sleet, snow, ice and freezing fog!!?

I detect a developing stonker:

The latest GFS op run ,switches back to a more amplification, similar to the above picture being shown for a couple of days from GEM. Looks like cold pool development formation ( 528 dam) in vicinity of the British Isles by day10. Will we get another switch this evening ? or consensus of agreement with the main models ? Our team still backing a more amplified outlook and think ECM run this evening will swing back that way. We will see. C

Morning all, here is snow dreamers chart of the morning with cold pool slap over Blighty ! At least this model has been consistent with its outputs out to 240t , but of course not necessary correct but nice to see. However, would be great for snow fans if this was to prove correct . C

Gem joins the party also.

Well ec46 weeks 4 to 6 haven’t proved particularly reliable for ages .... when was the last time that the meto 30 dayer didn’t mention ‘uncertain’ in the first sentence! ( or a phrase to that effect)

2 day blip full steam ahead choo choo give us a like @Sceptical

I can't help but wonder, with the NW Atlantic one big baroclinic zone. whether all of this quite intense cyclogenisis, which is set to continue but not track that far east, will have any wave impact on the SPV/

Flattery gets you a lot in this world! It's motivated me enough to do another comparison with previous years:

The North Atlantic 300mb wind profile and surface analysis for midnight and the Camborne sounding (potentially unstable to 20, 000ft) Currently the country is under the umbrella of a low pressure area so quite windy in places, but the main concern is the area of heavy rain associated with the occlusion which comes to a halt across northern England which could cause some issues. Behind the front frequent squally showers will sweep across south west England and south Wales whilst there will also be some more persistent rain over Scotland courtesy of another occlusion A rather cold day. The heavy rain continuing for a while tonight over the north of England and north Wales before easing and sliding south. Becoming less windy with mist/fog patches south of this but clearer with widespread frost N. Ireland and Scotland The cloud and rain will clear to the south through Friday and once any mist and fog has cleared it will be a much better day than of late with plenty of sunny interval and light winds. But another trough has tracked east south of Greenland and the occlusion associated with this is edging east west of Ireland The front continues it's journey over Friday night and through Saturday so after a clear and cold start to the day rain will effect most places with snow on the higher ground in the north A cold and quite unpleasant day The rain and any snow will clear over Saturday night and although bits and pieces of the front are still around Sunday should be a cold day with sunny intervals. But as can be seen another intense upper low has tracked into the NW Atlantic a with a deep surface low over the tip of Greenland By Monday the low is filling in the southern Denmark Straits as the strong jet hits the buffers of the European ridge resulting in the associated waving front struggling to traverse the country. But after a bright and frosty start to the day it will bring patchy rain to many areas

It's nice to see the gfs get going out of the starting blocks unlike earlier and last night... gfs,ukmo and ecm how bad was that!,i bet everyone wanted to throw there monitor/phone out of the window anyway the 18z is much better at disrupting the trough at 144hrs showing a neg tilt SE as opposed to a near bowling ball shape with better height's to our NE,all these incremental steps make a huge difference as to what happens later on i would just like to mention about the models into fl because a lot of folk think that it's going to happen and jumping on the bandwagon(esp newcomers),like if we saw a stonking run or runs we jump to conclusions thinking this will happen.it might but nine times out of ten it will not,same goes to oh! no zonal train incoming in fl,no it ain't but the trends are what we are/all looking for and i for one also look for trends,forget about the details that comes well in the reliable,macro fl,micro in the reliable the trends do still show hp cells floating around to our north in the NH and it's these hp cells that keep us interested as to what the falling dice will play later on,now we all know that these hp cells might not be in the right place for delivering cold to our shores,that will be bad luck but look how small our island is compared to the NH lastly thanks to all the great posts again in here today,i always feel warm and welcomed in this nice community cheers ----------------------------- the latest news on my partner is that she is doing fine and she looks much better today,the docs said she might be discharged as of Friday or poss tomorrow, also she is on detox medication for her drinking habit of which hasn't helped with her condition of stomach hernia.

This weekend could be one of the rare times in November where it's actually warmer in Moscow than London with some unusually warm air arriving in the east.

That pocket of heights to the E of Greenland is something that needs to be watched closely, if we can get that low leaving the ESB to drive heights northward we could easily see a linkup between the two leaving us in a very blocked pattern... eg ICON 12z

Urm!!! just compare this nov to the one in 2010,and we know what happened in 2010 there is a lot more snow this year,whether that means we get a better winter though is anyone's guess but i like what i am seeing.

To offer a different view, would be that it is aiding the stasis of low heights in Southern Europe which is, in turn, likely to promote ridge-building in the Atlantic. It is however, like you say, blocking off a cold-feed from the usual Siberian cold pool. Best scenario from here would be LP remaining to our south, heights remaining robust to the west and driving more LP SSE across the UK for a period while that block is either forced back South, or pulled NW over time, with the cold pool being pulled around its flank. It's true though that if it stagnates, the UK will be left in a cold but wet situation. Seen far worse positions for the UK in November before though!

The TPV does a 'Tom Daley'? And now for the 06Z GEFS ensembles -- maxes mostly between around 4-7C, and things a bit up-in-the air, long term?

A big flip back to a blocked pattern in the NH, expect more flips but all still pointing to little in the way of PV. There is no reason why this couldn’t end up bringing very cold weather late Nov and follow on into december . what we haven’t seen is any cold sets of ENS, I mean grouping below -5c 850s , more ears and eyes may switch on should that start happening.

Nothing of real interest for me right now looking at the models I’m honestly just hoping for a stop to this relentless rain and dreariness, it’s been unbelievable down here not seen such consistent rain and dullness for a long time. I’d love some crisp and clear winter days.

Morning all US NIC….. Similar to yesterdays, although Kara increased more today.. Baffin also increased more than average, whilst Chukchi again retracted. Expect further around average gains later today. The snow line has reduced considerably eastwards in western Russia over the last 24hours. Snow however is now showing on mountain tops in Japan. Also now showing in the western Alps, The Pyrenes and also Highland Scotland MIA

Thanks Interitus. An interesting and informative paper. If I may do a quick summary of my take: SAI/AO mechanism: This works through positive snow anomalies enhancing the stationary wave activity flux (the propagation of stationary Rossby waves from the surface into the lower stratosphere). This upward wave momentum weakens the stratospheric polar vortex, leading to an AO response that propagates downward in winter. However, the QBO seems to be key because (as many other studies show) WAF into the stratosphere has more impact when the QBO zonal winds are easterly. SAI/AO relationship: This is a central question – is the relationship a cause, effect or part of a bigger feedback loop? The above mechanism seems to suggest that the SAI/AO is at the very least part of a more complex feedback mechanism that impacts NH winter weather patterns. The not-so-clear finding is that this relationship is modulated by the QBO phase with easterly phase more supportive, and the authors also leave the door open to there being impacts from other teleconnections with this remark in the conclusions: “…further studies will be necessary to understand the multiple drivers of the AO variability and their possible interactions better….” Thanks feb. An interesting observation and not without basis in-so-much as low solar activity lowers the amount of UV light reaching the earth, resulting in very cold air forming high up in the stratosphere above the equator and this anomaly then slowly descends through the atmosphere and manifests itself over the extra-tropics as a negative AO and NAO signature. So here again is another teleconnection that impacts the stratosphere which in turn impacts the AO/NAO phase. Further info in this paper: Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241606149_Solar_forcing_of_winter_climate_variability_in_the_Northern_Hemisphere

Spot on @IDO that looks the case this morning. However, note GEM holding its position. All very volatile post 144t, so may be best not look any further . Still rather unusual dynamics in the atmosphere going on at the moment. Great model watching to see how it all evolves. Cheers . C

fantasty world at 180 hr it looking it could go 2 ways!! if this was about 3-4 weeks on !!!

The GEFS 0z mean is cold and unsettled (coldest further north) and there's certainly a risk of snow at times across northern hills and the snow line may occasionally lower to modest levels and further south..overnight frosts and ice would also feature.

Aww..

For now the key point is that the Azores high remains out west and is not modeled extending eastwards into Europe. This is because of the omnipresent UK trough directing se into C. Europe. Once that happens the jet goes north and we revert to zonal westerlies. At least we have a coldish pattern from the north west which looks set for a couple of weeks yet until we hopefully develop a better blocking setup over the Arctic. The forecast reduction of zonal winds higher up gives some hope. This reflected in the shredding of the pv showing in the later frames of the model runs. A very different looking pv for November in the models that's for sure.

Tonight's Masie.. Shows a slowing in the rate of ice growth (today) to just below average rate of +69K Km2. About 15K Km2 below average. As suggested earlier, the 'Russian' sector stalled with Kara (-9K), ESS(+1) and Laptev (0) now full. Barents recovered a bit(+4K). On the other hand ice has started growing in the western sectors, with Beaufort(+30), Baffin(+16K), CAA(+14K), and Hudson (+5K). Hudson has increased its ice by a half and looks likely to rapidly freeze in the next 2 weeks as very cold air encroaches from the North West Arctic. Bering (+5K), is also now stirring itself. In other notes - the Baltic lost nearly all its newly formed ice. Can it survive,? Temperatures are still falling like a stone.....DMI shows they have now reached average values for the last 40 years. If further decreases are observed it really will be unusual (at least for the last few years). As it stands today, DMI has not seen this drop since 2014, certainly the last 4 years have been way surpassed.. It may be worth looking back over the Masie DMI temperature history, I can access via the link below - ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php In case you cannot link, I have provided the data for the last 6 years below - (just scan through them). MIA