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To me, the Ecm 12z operational looks even colder than the 0z..hope this trend continues guys!

Just adding my comments re the possible colder interlude. Mind you some of you do need a touch of realism in my view, certainly away from the high hills for Scotland, N Ireland and the northern Pennines for snow falling let alone lying. Just take a look at the statistics for how often it snows in late October/early November. Anyway the 500 mb anomaly charts have, over the past 2-3 days started to come to a degree of agreement of height rises in the 6-10 day period NW of the UK. Indeed the NOAA 8-14 seems to be going along a similar idea to its 6-10 day output. All 3 show the marked troughing west of the ridge. NOAA seems not interested in what the EC-GFS thinks will develop east of the ridge. How settled or unsettled is of course not something that is that clear yet on the 500 mb charts. Expect the synoptic outputs be that 2x daily or 4x to vary from run to run for a while. Also remember in the further reaches, say post 7-8 days check like with like not run to run. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ECM going for a prolonged spell below Normal tonight- from day 4 over the North & day 5 onwards in the south with winds staying in the North or North East. Even at day 10 no sign of the pattern collapsing....

I must say, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean follows the general direction of the operational in that it becomes colder and there would be quite a lot of frost next week for many..crisp fine weather instead of wet mild mush...most welcome!!!!!

Whoa....steady on NOAA a true Greenland block there even out to days 8-14 this looks a back door opener with lows/trough's sliding under the block later,fascinating model watching of late and let it continue last evening's NAO tonight's for some time the NAO/AO has been trying to go into positive for a week or so but in reality it has not happened there has been some great post/talent in here again tonight and makes for nice reading,and i hope we reap the rewards this winter 458287303_nao.webp

The 00z GFS is a bit progressive over night- however excluding that the 192 -228 mean / UKMO / GEM are EPIC in terms of -AO & polar profiles. Some serious tropospheric wave 2 action with a vortex split !

That convergence line really is weather chart porn, it's beautiful! Would be some incredible rainfall rates along that line..

A peach of an ECM op tonight, looks cold throughout and as Steve M points out, the pattern looks like it's got legs. It was a slightly cold outlier on the ens, but tbh the mean is still straggling the 0C mark. Overall I feel its been a decent day of model watching.... We are highly honoured to be experiencing some decent cold charts so early on in proceedings..... Long may it continue folks... Some fab posts today.... Keep it up, let's make this winter a special one...

Looking at the 0z ensembles, there are still some crackers in there giving various cold shots, some more Intense than others! What I have noticed is how the control run has gone from the coldest, to the warmest overnight!! There are indeed some warm runs to, which the ensemble graph shows. The mean still remaining on the chilly side overall! Worth noting is an ever present cold pool now showing to the NE/E of us on many of the runs. Should be an interesting few weeks if at times this remains present, and does indeed intensify as we move further into November..... Watch this space...

Friday's still looking very wet on the 15z UKV. Really sharp temperature gradient too, and a proper convergence line along the front - could make for an intense squall line on it. Mild vs cold air: Winds converging along the front - heavy rain and a likely squall line. Then later a really clean tail end with clearer skies behind. Rain totals looking sizeable through Friday and into Saturday before it clears.

Some nice cold charts this morning, much more so than this time yesterday in my unbiased opinion!❄

ICON 18z now firming up on that Northerly flow- High pressure in the atlantic better ridging north than the 12z-

I think to much was made of that 6z op run!! The ensembles look nae bad, if anything the mean is a tad lower than the 0z.And dare I say it, some runs even approaching the big bad - 10c mark! It's trends we are looking for folks.... And me likes the trends!

Some misty pics from Icklesham this morning. It’s a delight to have a respite from slate grey sky and rain, yesterday was a real challenge in trying to find ways to be positive & that’s coming from a glass half full type of girl!

Ec46 shows a v strong gricelandic height anomoly week 2 (no surprise) and weakening off weeks 3/4 though still evident ....... as steve says, some trop wave breaking should be expected ...... Berlin charts return back end next week ....

For whatever reason, GFS is making quite a bit more of the eastern LP in the N Atlantic on D6 than any of ECM, UKMO, JMA, GEM and ICON. So, it’s the only one that diverts the northerly flow away from the UK for D6+. Go figure

such a great day weather wise and a super day to be out and about ....

Sorry to keep harping on about it, but again we see some very nice cold runs on the 12z ensembles.. So that's a fair few runs over the last few days highlighting the fact we could indeed be moving into a colder spell come November.... All a long way off I no, but the trends remain our friends. I was asked today what I wanted for Xmas!!! I simply said I want a December 2010 re run!! Needles to say they looked at me like I'd gone out.... But I think we all know what I mean on here anyway...

Getting close to a cold pattern for the beginning of November now: With positive height anomalies likely to be to our NW, some kind of Nly flow looks possible at least at times. Cluster 1 looks a kind of no-man's land with the trough too far west, but a trigger low could easily bring a northerly blast in this set-up Cluster 2 looks the coldest with the ridge slightly west of us, but primarily dry at this stage Cluster 3 is a different set-up and could lead to a NW/SE split, with westerly fronts threatening the NW but the SE being in continental air - a slight lottery as to how cold this air would be (and, judging by the current situation, air to the east could still be quite mild) - beyond T300, anomalies become weaker to the NE so unlikely to hold continental air for long.

GEFS 00Z ensembles really ramp up the uncertainty, this morning; the GFS Operational swings so much, it ought to grow pampas grass in its front garden! Anywho...let the fun and games begin!

It would be even more so though if it was further into winter and it was all snow.

ECM and gfs generally show a chilly outlook next week although placement is different ECM slightly colder. GFS.. ECM..

Ecm.. Gonna Chuck in the 'vents here also'= As this feature is miss-looked. The by standing momentum ..is one of revesre..And relax! With regard to waa (warm air advection)- into higher lattitudes. It's likely going to be a decent rolling sequence...as the polar vortex...builds...then busts... Take these snaps...as starting pistol!! Gain is almost eye watering...as for pact/mother lobe-limpet...non establishment this season!!! Later post ....Will note my thinking/-co-ordinates!!!

The Great Escape? From the rim of the NW Members' Bin of Shame (the 12Z is always crap) at T+204: To the NW Members' Hall of Fame (the 12Z is the best!) at T+240...Harry Houdini himself couldn't have done a better job! Praise be, for the 12Z!

Masie just out. What can I say..... ESS 101K increase. Laptev 80K increase. I call that a flash freeze. We now have the imminent situation of the central ice pack linking to the Siberian coastal ice in ESS, as well as it has already achieved in Laptev. This leaves it more likely that more rapid ice gains will be made filling in the still open waters. Elsewhere Beaufort added +11k Km2, and Barents added +13K KM2. The ice pack is being pushed by the wind into these areas, with the ice around F.J. and Svalbard looking very menacing. Even Chukchi moved forward with +6K Km2, for the first time this year. Zoom in the charts below for detail. If further proof is needed of the rapid increase in sea ice, the time taken to get from 5000K to 6000K is now the second quickest in the last 10years, For example last year took 14 days as did 2015. Both years were considered quite a fast rate of increase - whereas it has taken just 9 days this year.

Gfs still showing a nasty low in fact the winds are stronger and further north with this update very heavy rainfall across a good swathe of England and Wales with snow for the hills of north Wales northern England? In my opinion the gfs is probably over estimating the snow risk. arpege is further north with this low pressure system and mostly rain is shown for northern areas. dwd is in similar agreement though shows more in the way of hill snow for the North.. one thing they all agree on is very strong winds for England and Wales during Friday but the position and track of this is not nailed on not suprising as its still 3 days away but we'll wait and see what tonight's output shows.

I wouldnt worry about the GFS AM run - the 06z is always bin fodder - its moved the high pressure about 1000 Miles SE at 168...

The stark temperature contrast remains on 6z, along with that heavy rain, and for few sleet/snow...

Some very interesting weather possibly on the cards for the end of this week then! It’s been a while since I’ve posted in here. But that little low will need to be very closely monitored. A potentially nasty little feature that could surprise quite a few from very strong winds to early snowfall. Especially in Wales, the Pennines and Peak District areas. Haven’t even mentioned the possible Stella outcome into next week, with that big greeny high possibly becoming established, and the potential early freezer for Scandinavia and Europe! Storm season coat is now hung up! Let’s watch the winter dramas roll out!

Cold high on EC this evening!! Some lovely dry and hopefully frosty weather to end Oct and early November!!

Yes.. The ens belly dropping.. As they not the pressure rises... And all in the right places.. And the mean looking to take more and more members as we evolve.. As supports get further to grips....with the very likely pattern changes!!!!.. Fun n' games season..."OPEN"!!!!!

Looking at the short term - still plenty of time for the models to play around with the position and path of the projected low pressure and frontal feature due to move into the UK Friday. It may correct on a more southerly path, thanks to a more pronounced polar airstream digging down and undercutting it.. midlands/peak district southwards (I'm hoping so from an imby perspective it stays away for a good proportion of Friday at least here, to get a good day's fell walking in).. it can arrive later in the day. Beyond, ensembles and models mainly in agreement for a more settled chilly spell with heights building to the NW, frost and fog and below average temps to see October out.

Cold and dry looks the form horse after the weekend the Greenland high (holy grail) out of reach at the minute we see one this year long overdue.

And here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles; I'd put the start of their collective descent into La La Land at around Day 7...?

Well the gfs doesnt pick up on local detail too well but the coast would have stronger gusts this gives you a general idea of the wind gusts inland.. these wind speeds shown are pretty common for this time of year anyway.

Up and down like you say, but still good to see a fair few ensembles flagging up cold so early! Let's see where the 12s lead us, and more importantly the ECM later... Not so sure about cranking the heating up... I actually have it turned off in the room I sleep in! Much happier sticking my head out the window on a sub zero night..

Certainly.. These are the sort of ens...we should be looking for...in both style...And trend-when looking for a transfer to cold/colder... And the trend is fitting!!! And as mentioned.. The 6z gfs -raw-.. Looks a classic off the path suite!!...as reflected in its ensembles

A little look at temperature and rain anomalies based on yesterday's ECM monthly. Didn't bother with this week as it's within short range forecasts. Looking chilly.

If,and its a big if, the GFS is sniffing the correct progression then the 1st half of Nov will be well below average. The big blue blobs across much of Europe will ensure that and prevent a quick route to Atlantic weather.

Just for a laugh, and it's based on 18z GFS, this is the raw data for my location on Friday, bonkers. Low ground Lincolnshire. Of course it will change, but certainly seems to be some trend towards a spell of sleet/snow for some on friday

Fantastic 18z so far if cold frosty foggy weather is your cup of tea!!i cant wait for those crisp mornings and evenings!!

Greenland profile good for another go late on.

GFS looking lovely tonight, lots of dry cold and possibly foggy/frosty weather to usher in November.

Definitely a subtle shift south with this vigorous wave depression with the heaviest rain now shown for the Midlands and Southern England gales restricted to the far south east and southern coasts, snow still progged mainly for the hills but perhaps like others have said the north Midlands and north Wales instead of northern England this would bring a real soaking to England and Wales though and exacerbate any high river levels currently.. but if this trends any further south which is a possibility then hills further south may get the wintriness and gales remain to the south alternatively it could trend further north and if that's the case then wind would probably be more of a talking point.. this needs watching very closely will not be suprised to see this being a named storm if this came off but that's not definite and intensity will fluctuate.. just needs more aggreement from other models.

Why is the final week in October critical though. Why not the first week of November etc?.

WOW! - Surely that is just the GFS bias towards snow on the PPN type charts - hope not of course but that is heavy PPN, surely we cannot get pumpkined this early in the season??

Big swing to cold in the last 12 hours or so. Certainly widespread frost looks likely for many. So encouraging to see heights so high to our West and North. If the trend is your friend it's all looking good as we head for Winter proper!

Interesting model viewing today - some significant changes from what was shown over the weekend - back to a much colder theme for the latter part of the month, with a battle taking place between polar air and tropical maritime air. The key difference in the models today is the projected depth and position of the remnants of the split trough anchoring itself to our SW. Yesterday the models were showing a much more robust and rounded feature cutting off the polar air supply to the north quickly and thus ushering in a mild SW wind with heights pumping up from the near continent thanks to the increased pressure gradient. Today the models are showing a much shallower and stretched feature becoming elongated with a much less marked pressure gradient, hence much less in the way of height development to the south, allowing the polar air to have a much easier ride in nosing down on the trough and pushing it quickly aside, giving the northern half of the UK at least a very chilly end to the week - with snow quite possible to modest levels. Thereafter heights are forecast to build through the UK towards the NW, which ties in with what the Ensembles have been showing for quite a while now - giving a chilly crisp and dry end to October - a cold high so lots of frost and possible fog.. Still a chance the models could have it wrong this evening and they revert back to what they were showing over the weekend, but the timeframes are much shorter now, and when you get a very quick about turn of pattern development in the 96-120 hr timeframe, and all models are on the same page, chances of them completely backing away in future runs is quite minimal, not to say a half way house or watered down version can occur. After a predominantly unsettled first two thirds to October, might we end up with a very seasonal dry cold frosty end.. would be nice to see.

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is definitely going colder from the north, just like the operational...colder than the 0z for sure!

Yet again some spicy 12z ensembles coming out.... Now is it finally onto something, or does it still show tenancies for cold bias! I'm hoping there has been some improvement since last winter. Personally I think it's latching onto something, if I recall, it was the GFS that was pointing out one of our hot plumes during the summer by flagging up very warm ensembles a couple of weeks out! A quick glance at the ens show the control was yet again a beauty, and even the mean is beginning to trend down... All in all, me love it long time.